CC: Miami v San Fran Season Prospects
Ah, the traditional waking up Saturday morning and your first thoughts turning to....those games at Ford Field and the Superdome. We're not in Kansas anymore.
The "crowned one" has a new blog posting up that indicating again Jim H is in play and while no sure thing there will be interest if he is approached "respectfully" and "appropriately". Appropriately = no direct contact during NFL season (duh) and respectfully means bring a lot of suitcases of cash. Don't lowball. Common sense.
If you don't know who the crowned one is, the first rule of MGoBlog is don't link to the crowned one.
So let us look at the remaining schedules of the Dolphins (most likely the strongest NFL suitor) and 49ers the rest of the way and project, because as we all know NFL games are won on message boards and with statistics. The Raiders can be skipped because any decision to go across the bay is a bet on Jim's views on Derek Carr and Mrs. Harbaugh's demands.
As for San Fran, it is not so much about Jim's future there but Jim's availability i.e. when can "respectful" (i.e. official) contact be made. If San Fran falls out of the playoffs, that day could be Dec 29th (or whatever day Jim would be let go). As for Miami, a playoff bound Miami would be good for business and make it difficult to fire a coach, although we've seen NFL teams fire 10-6 coaches in the past, when a better option presents itself. Something that would seem like a no brainer except for those inside the UM administration apparently. (ugh) But I digress.
Analysis: Can we call Jim H on Dec 29th?
San Fran remaining games
- Home: Redskins, Seahawks, Chargers, Cardinals
- Away: Saints, Giants, Raiders, Seahawks
Caveat - San Fran somehow lost at home to St Louis last week, which per science should not have happened! Here is how San Fran compares to remaining opponents per Football Outsiders offense/defense efficiency.
| Off | Def | |
| SF | 23 | 7 |
| WAS | 17 | 19 |
| SEA | 12 | 5 |
| SD | 6 | 31 |
| ARI | 24 | 6 |
| NO | 4 | 29 |
| NYG | 21 | 18 |
| OAK | 29 | 25 |
Wins - Raiders (they suck), Washington (hosting a midde of pack team), Chargers (hosting a team that plays no defense), Seattle at home (hosting a hatefest for personal pride)
Losses - @Seattle (traveling to a hatefest), NYG (traveling to a middle of the pack team), NO (traveling to a team that plays no defense), 'Zona (playing for home field advantage throughout playoffs most likely)
Science indicates an 8-8 record and if science is off by 1, best case 9-7.
NFC playoffs - Jimbo is playing for a wildcard - his competition is projected to be, (1) loser of Green Bay (5-3) / Detroit (6-2), (2) Seattle (5-3), and (3) loser of Philly (6-2) / Dallas (6-3). So Jim being let go in late December counts on the Detroit Lions and Tony Romo coming through in the clutch. (deepsigh.gif) My prediction is loser of GB/Detroit and Seattle (a good statistical team taking everyone's best punch) edge out Jimbo for the 2 wildcards. Official UM calls commence late December.
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Due to length of post I won't break out Miami's to such a degree but here are the games and the chart.
Miami remaining games
- Home: Bills, Ravens, Vikings, Jets
- Away: Lions, Broncos, Jets, Patriots
| Off | Def | |
| MIA | 13 | 2 |
| DET | 25 | 1 |
| BUF | 27 | 4 |
| NYJ | 28 | 20 |
| NE | 9 | 17 |
| BAL | 10 | 9 |
| DEN | 1 | 3 |
| MIN | 30 | 11 |
Miami faces a litany of tough defenses ahead, but quite a few struggling offenses as well. It will be all about which Tannehill shows up. Science projects them with 2 guaranteed losses to @NE, @DEN so to get to 10-6 from current 5-3, they will need to go 5-1 against everyone else. Doubtful that happens even with 2 byes vs the Jets and a sort of bye v Vikings. Ravens, Bills, Lions are all Dolphins level and toss up games, and more teams are "in play" in the AFC for the playoffs than in the NFC.
Takeaway - Mr. Ross keep your 9-7 coach. Thanks.
November 8th, 2014 at 7:43 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 7:48 AM ^
whatever his last name is. The shit thrower, just to see what sticks.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:00 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 7:56 AM ^
Ace Williams does not have a crown. That takes years in radio to earn.
@Teldar he said the early in the week Brandon was fired it would be happen the next week as there was a Friday deadline for Dave to submit resignation or be canned. That's pretty good stuff to throw on a wall. He obviously has decent moles. Also 4 years ago said it would be Hoke first. Also was right about the players letters to the Prez even if he embellished the contents. People in crowns tend to embellish. But as long as they are directionally correct it is worth noting.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:04 AM ^
Here are the current win probability estimates on Massey for San Francisco in their remaining games -
@ New Orleans - 42%
@ NY Giants - 61%
Washington - 77%
Seattle - 51%
@ Oakland - 73%
@ Seattle - 37%
San Diego - 54%
Arizona - 46%
Without building the probability matrix (not enough coffee, also 256 rows tall), going 4-4 (based on current estimates anyway, so take it for what it is worth) in their remaining games is realizable possibility, just based on a quick look here.
November 8th, 2014 at 9:27 AM ^
Probability of San Fran having a 9-7 record or worse is ~ 79%
<= 8-8 is ~53%
<= 10-6 is ~95%
November 8th, 2014 at 8:05 AM ^
i know there has probably been a million threads regarding it, but who do we go after if Harbaugh, Miles, and Mullen all say no. Then what?
November 8th, 2014 at 8:18 AM ^
Well I think Mark Stoops would have to be looked at for geography, impact in Ohio, ridiculous recruiting, age, and leading an elite defensive squad at FSU. He would be sort of like hiring Dantonio off a meh stint at Cincy but looking behind the numbers to see what was there. Stoops just was extended to 2019 but the scuttlebutt is there is not a major buyout (I have not confirmed that but someone else wrote that on a board).
I'd prefer Stoops to someone like a Cam Cameron (ugh) or Schiano. More upside. Of course he has a downside too but dude can recruit, and would bring us 1 side of the ball to a high level which at this point is a bare minimum (which Hoke did not bring).
I think Patterson is unachievable because he has zero reasons to leave TCU - already in a power conference without a roadblock team like Alabama and has been there since 98, and Graham won't be palpable "culturally" at UM. So that would point you to a guy like Stoops - of course the criticism of him would be his record. But Harbaugh after 2 years at Stanford had about the same record.
Here are Stoops' defenses at FSU from 2010-2012 vs prior year (2009).
| W/L | Tot Off | Tot Def | |
| 2009 | 108 | ||
| 2010 | 42 | ||
| 2011 | 4 | ||
| 2012 | 2 |
FSU recruits better than UM by a few spots but with how bad Big 10 offenses in you'd think Stoops would be able to build a top 10ish defense here long term. His offense is a bit strange but he seems to just be trying to play to the QB he has who has some challenges. I don't know what offense he wants to run long term - would be an important conversation.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^
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November 8th, 2014 at 8:34 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 8:48 AM ^
I think the Falcons might be his most likely spot next year. They've got talen tand have underperformed this year. Could be an appealing team, if Harbaugh wants to stay in the NFL.
I'm not sure we can compete with the money Arthur Blank could offer him.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:57 AM ^
I am kind of worried about the Bears too with his history there - Cutler is a lot like Ryan (and Stafford!) where you look at the physical tools and wonder what a Harbaugh could do with him. Granted he seems like more of a head case that Ryan or Stafford but Jim has a long history in Chicago.
Again he is going to have his pick of jobs. A $6M a year offer would be necessary and I dont think he is a guy who is going to be picking jobs based on an extra $500K a year. Either he stubbornly believes San Fran is an outlier and the next job he wont face the same issues, or he will see his style is better suited for college. He is not going to change his stripes.
November 8th, 2014 at 9:33 AM ^
Good call. I was in Chicago for business on Thursday and Friday. There was a conversation on sports talk radio about the potential for Harbaugh to come there next year.
They're really unhappy with Trestman. They seemed to think that Trestman has lost the locker room.
I think it might take $7M to get Harbaugh next year. I think Michigan could swing that. Hell, if Hoke is worth $4M, Harbaugh's got to be worth $7M.
November 8th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^
Hoke is worth 4 million?
November 8th, 2014 at 4:36 PM ^
Worth...as defined by what his contract pays him. That is the only way in which Brady Hoke is worth $4M as a football coach.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:37 AM ^
He's a promising coach with relevant experience and he's looking to move up. He just signed a long extension with no buyout. He might as well have made a public announcement that he's available for the right jobs.
The only caveats are that there may also be a very good candidate who is off our radar at the moment. Someone who isn't considered available. There is also the matter of how he finishes the season. It's possible they lose their last six games. That would make him a tough sell, which is an important part of the hiring process.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:50 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 9:18 AM ^
His career record is worse than Hoke's was when UM hired him. (7-14) The 2014 Kentucky Wildcats are 5-4(2-4) in the SEC. He may turn out to be a good coach, but that is far from certain at this point in his coaching career.
I find it surprising that people are willing to consider such an unproven commodity after Brady Hoke.
Mark Stoops should not be a candidate for this job. He has not proven that he can coach at the highest level.Two years at UK and suddenly this man is qualified to be UM's head coach? Yeah, no.
Mark Stoops is not an option until he actually achieves sustained success at UK. Rich Brooks has set the recent standard at UK going to four straight bowl games. Stoops has to at least match, if not surpass, that in order to be a candidate for any top tier job.
November 8th, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^
It is not as simple as that. There are people who want to hire coordinators with zero HC experience (I am not one of them but there are quite a few who are advocating it). Guys like Bob Stoops and Bo Pelini and Jimbo Fisher were never head coaches before landing jobs at major programs. If Michigan had hired Mark stoops straight out of FSU 2 years ago rather than UK, it would be equivalent to what Nebraska did with Bo Peilini or Oklahoma did with Bob Stoops - both of which had 3 years at an elite program as a DC.
So to dismiss him out of hand because he actually took the jump to be a HC is very self limiting in terms of candidates. I personally would prefer a guy who has at least cut his teeth at being a HC and went through the growing pains, learned to deal with boosters, learned to face the media spotlight, had to be responsible for an entire program as opposed to 1 side of the ball. As opposed to having Herman (who a lot of OSU fans dont like for his "big game calls" - read 11 Warriors) or Narduzzi (who is a coordinator on the same side of the ball and expertise as the HC hence we have no idea how much he is contributing).
Again I have no idea if Mark Stoops will be an elite football coach. But by dismissing him simply due to the top line record at one of the worse programs in the Big 5 conferences without looking at the rebuild job, results as a DC at an elite school, his recruiting (which is better than Miss State's already), is short sighted IMO.
You advocate change because another year of Hoke is a year lost - I agree. But we are discussing who do you go with if the first 2 tiers of candidates are no go. Stoops is just as good as any; Schiano took over just as bad of a program in a worse conference and his 4 years were a complete disaster. I mean we are talking plan C guys - there is not a laundry list of guys out there, especially those with a brand name in Ohio and already showing recruiting prowess in the Big 10 footprint. If Stoops has a 9-3 type of year next year he will be viewed as the hottest candidate in the country - so its like buying a small cap NASDAQ stock with Stoops - more risk, more reward.
November 8th, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^
as some suppose. Rich Brooks achived a level of success at UK. UK, while a bottom rung SEC program, is not at the level of Vandy. You can win there. It just takes some time.
I just don't see it with Stoops. Not now anyways. I think UM can find better "c" candidates than Stoops.
November 8th, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^
Here are Rich Brooks first 3 years. You are comparing a guy's record 5-8 years in (Brooks) to a guy 2 years in. You are asking a guy to have Rich Brooks' success in year 4-5 in year 2.
By the way it looks like Brooks took over a 7-5 team. Stoops took over a 2-10 team.
| Kentucky Wildcats (Southeastern Conference) (2003–2009) | ||||||||
| 2003 | Kentucky | 4–8 | 1–7 | T–5th (East) | ||||
| 2004 | Kentucky | 2–9 | 1–7 | T–5th (East) | ||||
| 2005 | Kentucky | 3–8 | 2–6 | 6th (East) | ||||
November 8th, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^
I explicitly said that Stoops needs to prove himself.(e:g: needs more time as head coach). I did not say I expected him to have Brooks success right now. Stoops needs a lot more seasoning before he can be expected to coach at UM's level. Stoops needs to build something at UK before he can even be considered for a UM-type job. That is what I am saying.
November 8th, 2014 at 11:53 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 8:17 AM ^
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November 8th, 2014 at 8:20 AM ^
Yes. I mean the largest athletic donor to the school also happens to own an NFL franchise who a month ago was 1-3. Things can change quickly in a month or two - go Ryan Tannehill! Miami's defense looks really impressive.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:22 AM ^
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November 8th, 2014 at 8:32 AM ^
Well I think being realistic any team with an opening in the NFL will be a "suitor" for Jim Harbaugh. Guys who take a team to 3 consecutive conference championships dont become available very often, especially only 1 year removed from such a run. Oakland due to geography and Miami due to Ross are generally considered leaders. Miami also has a blueprint Jim can work with - a young QB who seems to have potential but until the past month was not putting it together, and a lot of good pieces on defense. You could have said that about San Fran 5 years ago.
Jim seems too competitive to me to go to Oakland and go through a 3-13 season but maybe he thinks Derek Carr is the next Andrew Luck. If you have a franchise QB you can turnaround things quickly; depends on what he thinks of Carr to make Raiders even a remote possibility. I can't see a guy who wants to win that badly suffering through numerous losing seasons with a sad sack franchise just so his wife enjoys nice weather for another 5 years. I also think he would not want to go to NYJ for same reasons - Geno Smith is horrid. Atlanta on the other hand, Matt Ryan could be an Alex Smith type project. So we'll see.
I think Michigan really comes down to has Jim decided his coaching style - which can be successful SHORT term in the pros or college - accepted his style works long term better in college. As someone else said on another thread, Jim's reptuation is now "out there" so the next batch of NFL veterans could have a much shorter half life than the San Fran ones so they could tune him out quicker at his next job.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:19 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
not this week. Lions need to win 1 of the next 3 games to stay in the playoff/NFCN race. The next 4 games after playing at NE are all cupcake schedule in which the Lions should win.
November 8th, 2014 at 8:35 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 8:56 AM ^
1. Hoke is not a great coach, and is never going to develop into our next Bo,
2. Transitions have costs, sometimes major costs, in terms of attrition, recruiting and players having to learn new schemes (see Devin Gardner's entire career),
3. (Kind of a corollary to #2) - stability is generally a good thing for a program - see MSU,
4. Michigan has a really young team, especially on the trenches, and returns almost everyone next year.
With those assumptions, I think that the answer to your question is that if you can get a Harbaugh-level coach (either Harbaugh, Miles, etc, you pull the trigger regardless of whether Hoke wins out. If you cannot, you look at the next level coaches and only make a change if you can get a safe, definite upgrade. If not, and if it is a close call, I think that the assumptions above warrant keeping hoke for one more year. I want a change desperately, but I don't want a change just for the sake of a change without a guaranteed upgrade.
November 8th, 2014 at 9:04 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^
a better job than Hoke. You just need to do the work to find them. This idea that Michigan can wait a year if it isn't JH or Miles does not make sense to me. What will change in a year? What was true today would be true a year from now in terms of the quality of coaching candidates.
Furthermore, delaying the removal of Hoke will only damage the program even more as everyone knows Hoke is a dead man walking. Recruiting is already taking a hit. Keeping Hoke on as lame duck will cause the camp fire to develop into an all-consuming conflagration.
Brady Hoke is done. He needs to go ASAP. This is as necessary as Dave Brandon's dismissal for Michigan football to get back where it needs to be.
November 8th, 2014 at 9:58 AM ^
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November 8th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 9:07 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 8:38 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 8:53 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 9:12 AM ^
you're putting together some good, reasoned thinking around the topic. I especially like your high-level view that this all comes down to whether JH wants to keep slugging it out in the pros or if he'd rather return to college. It's really as simple as that. If he realizes that he enjoyed his San Diego and Stanford years more, despite the recent SF success, then he'll come to Michigan. If he thinks he still has more to prove and accomplish in the NFL, desipite the recent SF headaches, then he'll have plenty of offers.
I just don't "see" Harbaugh in Miami. I believe I would put Atlanta in this category as well. He seems to a provincial person, as many coaches are. He has roots in San Diego, Palo Alto, and the midwest (Western Kentucky, UM, Chicago, Indy). I see the biggest "risks" to UM remaining on the sidelines while JH pursues the NFL are the Bears, Chargers, Raiders and Colts, with the Bears being a bigger threat.
Bears: Trestman could be vulnerable. Could build a Ditka-like legacy with a successful run and maybe a SB someday, but I don't see him meshing well with Cutler and Marshall. The Harbaugh aura "fits" the Bears, along with the Packers they're probably the most Michigan-like NFL franchise and he obviously wore the uniform for many years so there's that.
Raiders: I can see JH in the black and silver, but what a mess. I would not be surprise or shocked to see this happen, though. Oakland is desparate enough and if JH wants to stay in the NFL and the bay area, the Raiders job is as much for the taking as the UM job.
Chargers and Colts: These would be seemingly good fits for JH in a vacuum, but they seem to be settled on their coaches currently. JH could remain in California and return to SD; or he could be reunited with Andrew Luck in Indy. But neither franchise seems ripe for a CC right now.
Blue Blood NFL Franchises: One final "risk" would be the big-name legacy coaching job, taking over for a retiring Coughlin in New York or stealing the Cowboys job should Jerry Jones decide he's gotten all he's going to get out of Garrett. There's also Bellichek's retirement on the horizon, the Steelers could open up someday (imagine that Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh rivalry), etc. But those aren't happening this year (except maybe the Cowboys depending how things shake out).
JH could consider teams like the Giants, Chargers, Bears, Colts as a bevy of places that would be available to him if he were to change his mind AGAIN after a run at Michigan.
This is going to fun and excrutiating to watch play out.
November 8th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^
we'll look back on the Hoke years with fondness.
November 8th, 2014 at 9:38 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 10:22 AM ^
November 8th, 2014 at 1:37 PM ^
I saw this on twitter last night. Sam Webb and Marcus Ray discuss Harbaugh and Butch Jones. First off. I want Harbaugh like a fat kid wants cake, but after reading this I gotta ask, and this is an honest question. Is Butch Jones really that comparable to Harbaugh or is Marcus Ray dalutional?
November 8th, 2014 at 2:55 PM ^
Hiring Butch Jones would be settling IMO. He followed Brian Kelly at CMU and Cincy, so there's no way to say the success he had there was his own, and he's done absolutely nothing of note at Tennessee. In no way is he comparable to JH. Sam Webb, Markus Ray etc. seem to really be against hiring Jim Harbaugh for some reason. They seem to just be pushing their own agenda, I wouldn't take anything they say seriously.
November 8th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^
Bears probably won't fire their coach just yet. Their offense is good and that's his area of expertise, it's their defense that's awful. They'll probably fire their DC and give Trestman another year. Atlanta I think would have to make a really generous offer to lure Harbaugh from the Bay Area to, well, Atlanta. Miami looks really good this year, doubtful they fire their coach if they make the playoffs or even come close to it. I think our biggest competition would be Oakland, but I'm not sure I see JH taking over a team that might go 0-16 this year.
November 8th, 2014 at 3:14 PM ^
Double post, sorry