Sagarin's Out - Michigan 17 (actually 23) - Don't Panic

Submitted by HeismanPose on

EDIT- Here's a link:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Sagarin is a little whack this year, but this is part of the BCS formula. I think the important thing we are ranked ahead of Michigan State. This is probably a good thing. The TA&M/Texas/Missouri silliness shouldn't matter - the voters will take care of that. He also has USC ranked, and they're not eligible. 

EDIT 2: As a few people have pointed out, the BCS only uses the ELO_CHESS Sagarin rankings. Those have us at 23rd. Please do not panic. Sagarin is only one of six computer polls used by the BCS. This amounts to 1/18th of the final ranking. 

I have taken down the ranking to avert panic. Remain calm. Repeat: remain calm.

MGoBoard

brn2build

December 4th, 2011 at 1:38 AM ^

Ummm...just in case no one actually looked at his ratings, the Sagarin ratings at the USA Today site include margin of victory, which is explicitly banned from use in the computers for the BCS rankings.  As the Sagarin page at USA explains, only the ELO_CHESS rankings matter.  Which means that we actually dropped this week, from 22 to 23.  Clearly that computer system should not be used, if it says that a 3 loss Oklahoma is the number 6 team in the country.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm?loc=interstitialskip

EDIT: and i got beaten to the punch.

Joined: 10/03/2011

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BraveWolverine730

December 4th, 2011 at 1:38 AM ^

First of all this is completely wrong. It is netiher of his formulas that he uses. Second of all, if you look at what he says is the better predictor he is not allowed because it has scoring margin, it is much more in line with reality. 

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 4188

maiznblu

December 4th, 2011 at 1:40 AM ^

so we dropped one spot in the ranking that the BCS uses but:

MSU dropped 5 (from 20 to 25)

Balyor remained the same at 7, so that is not "helping" them

TCU stayed a 19, not "helping" them

Georgia actually went up from 14 to 11

Va Tech dropped from 18 to 22

 

This is going to be close.  That being said, Sagarin's rankings seem to be the outlier this year, meaning they are likely removed from the calculation, as the two extreme computer rankings (high and low) are removed.

Joined: 08/12/2011

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Linguica

December 4th, 2011 at 1:41 AM ^

as previously mentioned.  However at least we're higher than MSU (25) and Houston (26) although we're still lower than Baylor (7) and Georgia (11... wtf...)

Joined: 09/27/2010

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MGoBlue96

December 4th, 2011 at 1:42 AM ^

actually represents the rankings in one of the computer polls in the BCS? Wonder how big of a trainwreck the other computer polls used are, in that case.  Makes the BCS a bigger joke than it already is.

Joined: 12/26/2010

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Sckon

December 4th, 2011 at 1:51 AM ^

I think the more important thing is not to look at "his" rating alone, but rather how the other computers balance it out. Sagarin measures out of conference play since in conference play negates itself. Stop freaking out.

Joined: 01/29/2011

MGoPoints: 296

robmorren2

December 4th, 2011 at 1:52 AM ^

We will be in the BCS. Computers may or may not get us there, but they will put us on the fringe. Voters will pick the teams they have been hearing about (Michigan). I think the human polls will favor us. The games exposed teams today, and they will get hammered for it. No one on their right mind moves up TCU. Oklahoma will fall off the Earth and grab Houston on their way down. MSU has three losses and had their chance. They beat us, but it was at MSU. The polls will place the teams that fans want to see. Bottom line. It isn't like Michigan stumbled down the stretch.

Joined: 06/04/2011

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neoavatara

December 4th, 2011 at 2:05 AM ^

Don't want to get into the full analysis, but Sagarin may actually help us improve a couple spots in the end.

Take a deep breath...I think the voting will carry the day...we will be in the top 14. 

Joined: 08/01/2009

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Muttley

December 4th, 2011 at 2:31 AM ^

Michigan moved down one from 22 to 23.  (This is our worst ranking and gets tossed.)

Of the teams that played today and might affect us, here are the one-week changes in the Sagarin ratings.

 • Oklahoma         no change         (lost 44-10 to Okie St)
 • Baylor                 no change        (won 48-24 vs Texas)
 • Georgia              up 3                   (lost 42-10 to LSU)  
 • TCU                    no change        (won 56-9 vs UNLV)
 • Michigan State  down 5              (lost 42-39 to Wiscy)
 •  Houston            down 18           (lost 49-28 to S. Miss) 
 •  Clemson           up 5                   (won 38-10 vs VT)
 •  Virginia Tech    down 3              (lost 38-10 vs VT)
 • Southern Miss   no change NR (won 49-28 vs S. Miss)

Thus, for Sagarin alone, we picked up the necessary two spots against MSU & Houston but did not drop versus Baylor.  So we got that going for us...

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs
BCS Standings - November 27, 2011 (Computer rankings only w/ ΔJS added )

 

RK TEAM AVG AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW % ΔJS
1 LSU 1.0000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000 --
2 Alabama .9551 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 .950 --
3 Oklahoma State .8712 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 .930 --
4 Stanford .8559 4 4 4 5 8 10 5 .820 --
5 Virginia Tech .7811 10 8 9 9 13 18 11 .620 ↓ 3
6 Houston .7399 8 5 12 8 9 8 6 .730 ↓ 18
7 Boise State .7027 9 9 7 6 14 12 8 .680 --
8 Arkansas .7003 6 10 8 13 4 4 4 .780 --
9 Oregon .6862 10 15 5 12 12 9 9 .620 --
10 Oklahoma .6710 5 6 6 4 6 6 10 .800 --
11 Kansas State .5702 6 7 10 7 5 5 7 .780 --
12 South Carolina .5684 12 11 13 10 10 11 12 .600 ↓ 3
13 Michigan State .5369 16 17 11 16 18 20 15 .380 ↓ 5
14 Georgia .5348 14 13 16 14 11 14 14 .490 ↑ 3
15 Wisconsin .4576 19 19 14 18 24 25 18 .250 ↑ 5
16 Michigan .4310 15 12 17 11 17 22 17 .410 ↓ 1
17 Baylor .3910 13 14 18 15 7 7 13 .550 --
18 TCU .3310 18 21 15 19 23 19 16 .290 --
19 Nebraska .2578 20 18 19 17 25 24 19 .240 --
20 Clemson .1979 21 22 20 21 22 23 21 .180 ↑ 5
21 Penn State .1382 23 20 21 20 0 0 23 .140 --
22 Texas .1334 17 16 0 22 15 13 20 .310 --
23 West Virginia .1241 29 0 0 25 0 0 0 .000 --
24 Southern Miss .0724 29 0 0 24 0 0 0 .000 --
25 Missouri .0588 22 23 24 0 16 15 25 .160 ↓ 1

 

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2011 through results of DECEMBER 3 SATURDAY

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games. The ELO CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, ELO CHESS and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR).

RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) | ELO_CHESS

1 LSU 13 0 76.01( 18) 108.06 1
2 Alabama A = 98.99 11 1 74.27( 23) 99.49 2
3 Oklahoma State A = 97.31 11 1 80.28( 6) 97.81 3
4 Oklahoma A = 92.87 9 3 80.37( 5) 91.49 6
5 Stanford A = 91.13 11 1 72.46( 36) 88.80 10
6 Oregon A = 91.08 11 2 73.40( 29) 89.16 9
7 Arkansas A = 89.48 10 2 73.58( 28) 95.82 4
8 Boise State A = 88.33 11 1 68.75( 69) 86.95 12
9 Wisconsin A = 87.95 11 2 70.00( 58) 83.90 20
10 Baylor A = 87.50 9 3 79.38( 8) 91.42 7
11 Southern California A = 87.25 10 2 74.74( 20) 85.97 14
12 Kansas State A = 87.11 10 2 78.53( 10) 93.81 5
13 Texas A&M A = 86.44 6 6 80.87( 3) 84.86 17
14 South Carolina A = 86.35 10 2 72.99( 34) 89.41 8
15 Missouri A = 85.74 7 5 79.40( 7) 85.49 16
16 Texas A = 85.23 7 5 80.72( 4) 86.20 13
17 Michigan A = 85.20 10 2 71.77( 42) 81.94 23
18 Georgia A = 85.12 10 3 73.79( 27) 86.96 11
19 TCU A = 84.06 10 2 66.38( 85) 83.95 19
20 Michigan State A = 83.57 10 3 71.85( 41) 81.39 25
21 Nebraska A = 82.82 9 3 73.38( 30) 81.73 24
22 Houston A = 82.41 12 1 63.72( 107) 81.19 26
23 Clemson A = 81.25 10 3 71.44( 44) 84.07 18
24 Notre Dame A = 80.99 8 4 73.83( 26) 77.94 32
25 Virginia Tech A = 80.51 11 2 70.04( 56) 82.31 22
26 Penn State A = 80.09 9 3 72.19( 38) 80.46 27
27 Southern Miss A = 79.34 11 2 64.30( 100) 79.52 28
28 Florida State A = 79.12 8 4 68.55( 70) 75.06 38
29 Iowa State A = 78.31 6 6 81.59( 2) 82.98 21
30 California A = 78.03 7 5 74.08( 24) 76.23 36
31 Tulsa A = 77.63 8 4 69.80( 60) 77.99 31
32 Mississippi State A = 77.44 6 6 74.34( 22) 78.17 30
33 West Virginia A = 77.36 9 3 68.90( 67) 76.63 33

 

Joined: 07/07/2009

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DrewGOBLUE

December 4th, 2011 at 2:45 AM ^

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4765872

These are the links to all the computer rankings. Aside from where Sagarin currently has us, we were anywhere in the range of 12-18 last week depending on the particular poll. IMO, there should be enough movement to bring us into the top 14. Also, combine that with the fact that most of them include an irrelevant USC ahead of us.

We will be fine.

Joined: 12/03/2011

MGoPoints: 2953

bronxblue

December 4th, 2011 at 8:43 AM ^

I can only presume with A&M that Sagarin only looks at 1st-half stats.  How a team with 6 losses (and 6 pretty mediocre wins) is ranked that high (including over the team that beat them AND has a better record) is beyond me. 

Commence complaining about the need for a playoff, but at the very least can an algorithm that ranks more than  half the Big 12 in the top-20 be investigated for sanity.

Joined: 11/22/2008

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