BCS simplified (Take 2)

Submitted by orobs on

EDIT:  First off, a lot of people are saying Michigan only needs to be in the top 18, but this is incorrect:

 

 

"if fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14"

 

By this rule, a Big 12 team gets chosen first.  

 

So, Michigan needs to be in the top 14, end of story.

 

ESSENTIAL:

 

LSU over Georgia

 

OR 

 

Southern Miss over Houston (houston will, most likely,  drop below michigan if this happens..  It will also free up another BCS at large spot, so Michigan would still get an at large bid with a georgia win)

 

If both of these happen, Michigan is all but guaranteed in the BCS.  If neither happens, michigan is 100% out.

 

IF only one happens, and Baylor jumps Michigan (which is a definite possibility if they beat Texas), Michigan will need more help to move from 15th to 14th in the form of:

 

- Ok state over Oklahoma

OR

- Iowa State over Kansas State

OR

- UCLA over Oregon

OR

- New Mexico over Boise

 

(also, Michigan jumping the B1G championship loser is a near-certainty, so i'm not too worried about the margin of victory in that game)

 

A Simplified (and only realistic) Rooting guide is:

- LSU

and one of:

- Texas over Baylor

OR

- Oklahoma State over Oklahoma

 

 

MGoBoard

funkywolve

November 28th, 2011 at 12:24 AM ^

Only 2 teams per conference in the BCS.  So with the current standings South Carolina, Arkansas and Georgia are not eligible.  Out of Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and KState only 2 can go.  If you're a mid major you have to win your conference so Boise St is not eligible.  So as the standings are right now, there's only 9 teams in the Top 14 eligible.

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MaizeyBlue

November 27th, 2011 at 9:38 PM ^

Under BCS rules, a team must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS standings to be considered for a BCS at-large berth -- unless there's only one team from its conference in the top 14. So if only one Big Ten team finishes in the top 14 of the final BCS standings, Michigan could still receive an at-large bid as long as it finishes in the top 18.

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/54347/oklahoma-state-making-strides


Seems like we should be okay because the Big Ten will only have 1 team in the top 14 after the Big Ten Championship game....

And, just remember although we are one of  the most attractive team to choose for the BCS at large, just being up for consideration won't give it to us automatically, theres still a chance we aren't selected..  This is unlikely, but possible.

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dj89

November 27th, 2011 at 9:48 PM ^

What I want to know is, what  impact does the potential hiring of Urban in Ohio have our BCS chances?  I heard that the computers automatically give a retro-bonus rating to Ohio upon his hiring so that if he is hired before the final rankings our win over them will vault us into the 4-5 range.   True?  Maybe we could speculate obsessively for a few days about it?

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Muttley

November 27th, 2011 at 9:57 PM ^

In the human polls, three-loss #18/18 Baylor is playing #25/NR Texas at home.  I don't think a win there gives them a human poll boost. (Two-loss Mich is ranked #16/16.)

In the computers, Baylor is already ranked #13 (versus #15 Mich). 

 

RK TEAM AVG AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 LSU 1.0000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.000
2 Alabama .9551 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 .950
3 Oklahoma State .8712 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 .930
4 Stanford .8559 4 4 4 5 8 10 5 .820
5 Virginia Tech .7811 10 8 9 9 13 18 11 .620
6 Houston .7399 8 5 12 8 9 8 6 .730
7 Boise State .7027 9 9 7 6 14 12 8 .680
8 Arkansas .7003 6 10 8 13 4 4 4 .780
9 Oregon .6862 10 15 5 12 12 9 9 .620
10 Oklahoma .6710 5 6 6 4 6 6 10 .800
11 Kansas State .5702 6 7 10 7 5 5 7 .780
12 South Carolina .5684 12 11 13 10 10 11 12 .600
13 Michigan State .5369 16 17 11 16 18 20 15 .380
14 Georgia .5348 14 13 16 14 11 14 14 .490
15 Wisconsin .4576 19 19 14 18 24 25 18 .250
16 Michigan .4310 15 12 17 11 17 22 17 .410
17 Baylor .3910 13 14 18 15 7 7 13 .550
18 TCU .3310 18 21 15 19 23 19 16 .290
19 Nebraska .2578 20 18 19 17 25 24 19 .240
20 Clemson .1979 21 22 20 21 22 23 21 .180
21 Penn State .1382 23 20 21 20 0 0 23 .140
22 Texas .1334 17 16 0 22 15 13 20 .310
23 West Virginia .1241 29 0 0 25 0 0 0 .000
24 Southern Miss .0724 29 0 0 24 0 0 0 .000
25 Missouri .0588 22 23 24 0 16 15 25 .160

The "partial-derivative impact" of a Georgia loss moves us up in four polls relative to Baylor but down in two polls relative to Baylor.  Likewise, the "partial-derivative impact" of a MSU loss moves us up relative to Baylor in two polls but has no effect on the other four polls.

Now the one unlikely landmine I see is a TCU loss, which would move Baylor up one spot in both human polls but not us.

Conversely, Wisconsin has had crappy computer poll scores, and what we saw this week with Wiscy jumping us was simply the lessening of the crappiness of those Wiscy computer scores.

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joeyb

November 27th, 2011 at 9:58 PM ^

BCS Simplified:

Root for teams above us to lose. If two teams ranked above us are playing each other, root for the higher ranked team. If two teams ranked below us are playing each other, root for the lower ranked team.

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madtadder

November 27th, 2011 at 10:10 PM ^

Well then he hasn't done much research. We need to climb two spots. Georgia losing to LSU, Oklahoma State beating Oklahoma, and one of the B1G teams ahead of us losing are all more likely than not. We only need two of those, so they add up to good odds. Not certain, but good odds.

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uminks

November 27th, 2011 at 10:32 PM ^

He also wrote that if a major conference gets only one team in the BCS then a second team ranked in the top 18 may get an invite. This info was dead wrong. Since this would only apply if there was less then 10 BCS bowl eligible teams and we have more then 10 this season.

Hopefully WI will blow out MSU and they should fall below us. If LSU defeats Georgia by 2 TD's, they should fall below us.

I would be surprised if a 9-3 OU team finishes ahead of us in the final BCS powl. If I'm not mistaken the final computer poll recomputes strength of schedule and we should see these big 12 teams drop.

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funkywolve

November 28th, 2011 at 12:28 AM ^

If they were doing BCS bowl selection based upon the rankings this week, there would only be 9 eligible teams. 

Only 2 teams per conference can go to the BCS.  South Carolina, Arkansas and Georgia are not eligible from the SEC.  Out of Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Kansas St only 2 can go.  If you're a mid major you have to win your conference to go to the BCS.  Boise St did not win the Mountain West.  TCU did so Boise St is not eligible. 

In the current rankings, there are only 9 eligible teams for the BCS.

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turd ferguson

November 28th, 2011 at 1:54 AM ^

Remember that the Big East is guaranteed a spot (why, again?).  Right now, you'd have the six AQ conference champions (guaranteed), Houston (guaranteed b/c top 16), Alabama (guaranteed in NCG b/c top 2), Stanford (guaranteed b/c top 4), and one at-large spot.  Any of Oklahoma, Kansas State, and, I think, Boise State would be eligible.

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