Early Line: Michigan +3
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-moveme…
The Wynn has opened up betting with Michigan State a 3 point (-110) favorite.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:31 PM ^
That is fair, it should be a close game, and with the home field advantage MSU should be a slight edge.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:23 PM ^
the money will move this line to under 2 points by kickoff
October 9th, 2011 at 7:32 PM ^
Don't they usually give a 3-point advantage to account for Home-Field? So are they just saying that MSU-UM should be a pick'em game if it was a neutral site?
October 9th, 2011 at 7:34 PM ^
I think that sounds about right. This will be a game to see whose offense can outplay the opposing D. I honestly don't know what the result will be.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:36 PM ^
In the end, it's going to be Michigan again on top.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:01 PM ^
I hope you're right.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:06 PM ^
Me too. I stole that line off of Bo.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:19 PM ^
Yeah, we know.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:27 PM ^
I forget where I am sometimes.
October 9th, 2011 at 10:20 PM ^
I love football, but I don't know everything about Bo et al.
October 10th, 2011 at 10:48 AM ^
I just know all Bo's speeches because they use the same one for a whole season in all the pregame videos
October 9th, 2011 at 7:54 PM ^
MSU has a weaker than normal O-line, which may allow a few more big defensive plays for the good guys. We'll see.
If Denard can manage to have a decent day passing, we'll likely win.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^
As Coach Hoke said about the Northwestern game, this game will be determined by tunovers. If we play turnover free, MSU won't be able to hold us down for long. We on the other hand will be able to do some things to contain them, because of their O-line problems.
October 9th, 2011 at 9:46 PM ^
MSU's interior O-Line is the most glaring weakness on the field. On the other hand, the SPartans have been more consistent across the board than we've been. That makes them more effective, in a sense, but more 2D. Worse, they've been gameplanning around their weak interior and sending everything towards the edges...which, as Northwester has proven, is our weakest area on D.
If we fire on all cylinders, we'll win, because we have th higher ceiling and more talent. If we're intent on making mistakes, though, it won't take to many to defeat ourselves. MSU won't give us a half to get our minds right.
All that said, this is exciting stuff.
October 10th, 2011 at 10:32 AM ^
Did we not lose the turnover battle at NW (3-2), yet still win the game? All turnovers are not equal, depends on where they happen on the field.......
October 10th, 2011 at 9:32 AM ^
to see who scores more points
October 9th, 2011 at 7:44 PM ^
Often it is 2 1/2 points for the homefield, though 3 is not unusual. I'd say that you are correctly calling this game a pick em, in the eyes of that particular book, at least if it were a neutral field. I'll be interested to see what the other lines are going to be on this game . . . .
October 9th, 2011 at 7:50 PM ^
That's pretty much it - they're calling it an even match...for now Still too many unknowns with each team but I'm betting we're improving steadily and that's our edge in this one.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:39 PM ^
October 9th, 2011 at 7:35 PM ^
I kinda figured that Michigan would open as the initial favorite because of the hype that follows among the MSM when Michigan is undefeated. However, the Spartans are the first truly solid defense that Michigan has played to this point... unless you count ND (which let's be honest, Michigan was a tad lucky to get out of that one with a win.
Yea the interior of the MSU line is very shaky but I am still not 100% sold of Michigan's defense either. Denard still hasn't gotten his interception-monkey off his back, and you know that State will be itching to get him in those same situations that NW was able to and capitalize off of those turnovers. If I was a betting man MSU +3 sounds about right.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:46 PM ^
Not sure you comprehend the Vegas Line. MSU is favored by 3, not M.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:56 PM ^
I said I figured that (as in, I expected that Michigan would be the favorite). I then added HOWEVER to indicate that while the result is not what I expected it makes sense from a logical standpoint. I then listed the reasons why that was a logical result. I finally concluded with a statement that all in all, MSU being favored makes sense. I may have put a plus instead of a minus at the end, but that was a typo.
Thanks, but I got it.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:10 PM ^
typo
October 10th, 2011 at 9:03 AM ^
This is a dead even game in my humble opinion. Our Defense has some proving to do yet, They are miles ahead of where I dreamed they would be, but Kuzins could pick them apart if we aren't careful. Running goes to us, Our special teams need to be on top of their game and no stupid penalties this week. Our Coaches will play a huge part in this game.....no drinkig the night before
October 9th, 2011 at 7:35 PM ^
MICHIGAN!!!!!
October 9th, 2011 at 8:26 PM ^
Telling.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:52 PM ^
Tremendous.
October 9th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^
FERGODSAKES
October 9th, 2011 at 7:36 PM ^
Yeah, the Wynn actually has it a tad closer than that because the sparty bet is +100 (You win 100 if you bet 100) and the Mich bet is -120 (You have to bet 120 to win 100). Standard bets are usually -110 so the sportsbook makes a cut after getting money even on both sides.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:59 PM ^
Wynn is the only one that I can find showing us at -120. I would guess that they had some early action on Michigan, but I doubt it will stay there as the week plays out. MSU +3 is going to see plenty of action on both sides, and will probably end up at -110 on both.
October 10th, 2011 at 6:00 AM ^
And it's already at -110, good call.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:38 PM ^
I could see it moving a bit in MSU's favor but I'm not sure anyone has a good read on which of these teams is better at this point in the season.
October 9th, 2011 at 7:45 PM ^
I wish I could go back in time and bet on us to win ten games before the season. J figured it would be plus four, I'm sure it will move around a lot before Friday.
October 9th, 2011 at 10:49 PM ^
October 9th, 2011 at 10:59 PM ^
So does biff.
October 10th, 2011 at 12:47 AM ^
October 9th, 2011 at 8:01 PM ^
Betting percentages for those that are interested.
http://www.sportsinsights.com/college-football-betting-trends.aspx
October 9th, 2011 at 8:03 PM ^
It's a bit surprising, but I'd rather have State overconfident this Saturday.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:10 PM ^
We're 4-0 in games where everyone is picking us to get upset...so let's just keep letting everyone pick against us
October 9th, 2011 at 8:09 PM ^
Sounds about right. I think MSU is the favorite as well; their D is stout. I'm hoping Borges and Mattison have some tricks up their sleeves.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:16 PM ^
Means this is a coin flip.
October 9th, 2011 at 11:54 PM ^
Exactly.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:21 PM ^
It should be a good game; we come out on top if Denard brings his "A" game.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:22 PM ^
And Vegas likes to put an enticing line out here like this so that people will bet against MSU... With that in mind, I think Vegas has an actual (fair) line of Michigan +6 or something. Just a speculation.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:38 PM ^
People will bet michigan regardless of the line ... they could have set it at UM -7 and you'd still get a boatload of people buying.
And if they did set the line poorly, people with big bank rolls will just keep buying til it's in it's "rightful" place.
October 9th, 2011 at 8:25 PM ^
Sagarin has Michigan a 2 point favorite using the Predictor (what Sagarin says you are suppose to use) and giving MSU 3 points for home field advantage (what Sagarin says you are suppose to do).
October 9th, 2011 at 8:26 PM ^
October 9th, 2011 at 9:15 PM ^
It'll be a pick em
October 9th, 2011 at 9:19 PM ^
I wonder if the noon start will help or hurt us in the long run. Seems like we should be used to playing early by now, not sure about MSU.
October 9th, 2011 at 9:24 PM ^
Everyone is so sold on Sparty's defense and I just don't see it. Is this hype based on shutting down Braxton Miller or getting torched by Notre Dame? I remember watching them play ND and they never laid a finger on Reese. I think Michigan will win and I don't think it will be all that close.