Damn, Bryan, you absolutely killed it. A great piece of art or music can crystalize what you're feeling when those feelings are still buried in a swirling morass of confused and amorphous anxieties, dread-fears, and hope. I couldn't quite put my finger on where the years, months, weeks, and days leading up tonight had my head, but in this article you did exactly that in a way that I wasn't ready for. [inside voice]: LFG.
The problem is that even if one of these kids filed this lawsuit today, it wouldn't get resolved for at least 18 to 24 months and by that time the point would be moot for everyone involved in the case.
I'm not too up on the NCAA rules or what potential consequences to another school might be, but one way to do it might be for one of the kids to find a school that is willing to take up the fight against this kind of thing, enroll in that school and have the school announce that he's going to play without sitting out a year - essentially announce that the school and the kid are deeming the LOI fraudulently induced and invalid. Then let the original school and the NCAA sue the school and the kid, such that the old school and the NCAA would have to prove that the LOI is valid and enforceable. Meanwhile maybe the kid plays or redshirts. Probably no school would want to fight the NCAA on that though(?).
With a solid defense, improving O-line and a competent run game, Morris doesn't have to be "great" or even "good" to competently play the role we'll need him to play in this offense. Seems like a tough kid with all the physical ability you need, do people really think that Harbaugh can't turn this kid into just an average Big 10 QB pretty quickly? That's not the highest bar in the world.
Maybe in little league or beer league softball, but in real baseball you ALWAYS put the guy with the better arm in RF, no exceptions. The point is to keep the runner from going from 1st to 3rd on a single to right.
Anyone who's thought enough about baseball to ask a question like this should really read The Book, by Tom Tango. The answer's in there. Basically, the risk of getting thrown out at second outweighs the reward of getting to second. The Book is an easy read and really changes the way you watch baseball.
If the NCAA smacks tOSU hard enough that they have to get rid of Tressell, why would Meyer - who could have damn near whichever job he wants - want to take over a program being hit with scholarship limits, playoff bans and so forth? Seems like he can wait around for the perfect job to open up, this wouldn't be it.
Before everyone has a fit about how classless it is to "make fun of" the previous regime - which, yes, of course - why don't we take breath and realize nobody here knows what was actually said. Michigan Student's account of the speech was pretty sloppy and vague, nothing to start (or continue) crucifying Brandon over.
He talks about watching game film from last year to see what they have on defense, but is there also film of practices from last year for the new staff to watch? Seems like that would be pretty helpful, since probably only half the players on the team ever saw the field last year.
Call would have still been blown, regardless of what the commissioner did the next day. The crowd doesn't go insane with joy, teammates don't carry you off the field, there is no euphoria. Selig could have put him in the history books, but the magic of perfect games is the moment of the last out. Even if Selig *fixed* it, that's not justice.
When Joyce had the press conference the following day, where he came out and owned up to his mistake and apologized to AG, I remember wishing my sons were old enough to watch and see how a man - a real man - confronts a mistake. I've got an incredible amount of respect for that guy.
The fact is, a law school education costs $150,000 and MOST legal jobs don't pay enough to comfortably pay that off. The jobs that do, suck. I'm a 04 UMLS grad, and since I never went into BIGLAW - I've had jobs where I get to see my kids - student loans are the bane of my existence. I could almost drive two BMWs for what I pay in loans every month. I always advise against going to law school, unless you (a) know what lawyers really do everyday (drudgery) and (b) you get some great scholarship.
What we "look like" to people who have no clue what is *actually happening* is irrelevant. If we get a good coach thursday, nobody's going to give a shit that we were bummed out tuesday. We all can see about 5% of what's going on, that we haven't hired someone is not necessarily evidence that things are going wrong. The self righteous presumptions are getting out of hand.
I'm not precisely sure what all's fueling this media back and forth, but I think we can assume that today harbaugh's on a plane or having lunch or driving home, or unpacking, or doing a million things besides whispering to 'sources' about which way he's leaning or not leaning.
I mean, has the guy actually said anything to anybody? I'm as hooked on the he said/he said about this as anyone, but is there any reason to believe that anyone out there has any legitimate basis for their opinion?
I mostly agree, except I think it's pretty clear that he was pitching injured for a good portion of 2008 - velocity dropped, GB% dropped - and his 2010 is not so out of line with his 2005-2007 FIPs which averaged 3.50.
But bottom line is that it Dombrowski couldn't really trust perry or zumaya to own the 8th inning next year, so he had to go out and pay going rates for a setup guy. I didn't like the 3rd year any more than you do, but 5.5m a year is close to market value for these kinds of arms anymore, as shown by the other reliever contracts I cited.
I know all that, that's why I didn't predict his ERA would be 1.34 again. His ERA based on his peripherals last year should have been 2.43. Even if you add a run to that number, a guy with a 3.40 era over 200 high leverage innings is worth $16m.
But since you're being a negative nancy, let me highlight the positives: he came back from a year off following surgery throwing harder than he ever has, and apparently is healthy. 7/1 k/bb is elite and is no accident. Dombrowski has scouts that apparently love the guy.
Do I think he ever repeats 2009? No. Does he have to in order to be worth his contract? No. Would I have signed him to this deal? No, for the reasons you stated, but I think it's perfectly defensible.
I think that's overstating it. If he gives us 200 (high leverage) innings of 3.00 era ball over three years, that's worth $16mil. Non-closer relievers are getting PAID this year, for whatever reason, so benoit's deal isn't really an outlier: Feliciano got $8m/2yrs, Jenks got $12m/2rys, Crain got $13m/3yrs, Downs got $15m/3yrs, Putz got $10m/2yrs, and Takahashi got $8m/2yrs.
Yeah, this is presumably the motivation behind pegging Phil Coke as a starter earlier in the offseason. He was a very good starter in the minors before the Yankees moved him to the pen (because they didn't need starters) in the middle of 2008. He's got three pitches and a good frame so the tigers think he can maybe pull off what CJ Wilson did last year. Hopefully him and galarraga can hold the #4-#5 starter fort until oliver shows up next year and turner shows up in 2012.
Dombrowski's methodical. None of the moves are particularly awesome by themselves, but he's building a good roster for 2011 without sacrificing much financial flexibility after next season. All told, these moves give the Tigers a solid roster that can contend in the AL Central in 2011 and 12 without giving out long, exorbitant contracts to anyone:
(1) The Inge and Peralta signings are not sexy, or all that interesting, but these are good moves because there were no better alternatives. They're both close to average players and unless you want to go out and spend $80mil on adrian beltre there aren't any viable 3B on the FA market and SS is even thinner. Holes filled adequately, move along.
(2) Victor Martinez is a solid bat at a reasonable cost. he'll catch twice a week, spell Cabrera at 1B and DH the rest of the time. Would maybe have preferred dunn's bat, but he doesn't give you the positional flexibility that VMart does. Hole filled nicely.
(3) the Benoit deal looks a little rich, but he solidifies the back end of the bullpen. again, not sexy or interesting, but a decent little move that fills a hole.
(4) Same with Magglio: Werth and Crawford are better, sure, but they got ridiculous contracts elsewhere. Again, resigning an aging RF for 1 year isn't exciting, but it's a smart way to fill a hole without committing too much salary into the future.
(5) Starting pitching: We've not gone after pavano because he'll want at least a 3 year deal and we don't want to tie up too much money/years in the rotation when we have (a) scherzer and porcello getting more expensive over the next 3 years and (b) a handful of guys - coke, oliver and turner - likely moving into the rotation in the next few years.
Good solid move, especially considering the alternatives: at least this saves us from having to have 4-way pillowfight/cage-match to fill LF and RF from the likes of clete thomas, casper wells, brennan boesch, ryan raburn and the bloated corpse of carlos guillen. And I like raburn.
You can't really assume that certain recruits go elsewhere because of DB's schedule. It's a factor, but nobody can say with any certainty how big of one it is unless the kids come out and say it. And Brandon's said repeatedly that he evaluates ALL of the universities coaches/programs after their seasons, regardless of the coaches contractual situation, nothing unusual about him doing it, only unusual that it's so hyped this year.
You also have to consider that if RR quits, he's not just going to waltz into another head coaching position at an elite program. How would that look, his defensive staff fields a terrible defense, Brandon tries to replace that staff and RR quits because he can't have his way? Who wants to hire a guy that does that? But then, RR sure doesn't strike me as a quitter.
I don't think 4th quarter or second half performance necessarily measures the performance of the S&C staff. I mean, it's just as likely that it's only because of Barwis & Co's extraordinary efforts that the team played as well as it did. Performance = [baseline talent] x [coaching] x [conditioning], you can't point to performance and tie it to one or the other thing without knowing the distribution of other factors.
That said, I think you have to look at it more on a per-player basis. Are players developing physically the way the coaches want them too? I'd imagine that running the pace of offense that we do requires everyone on that side of the ball to be better conditioned than a normal offense (resting 10-15 seconds between plays rather than 30-40). Don't know exactly if Barwis is BARWIS!! but I do know that you can't dismiss his performance based on late game team performance.
ummm, Michigan's roster was pretty crappy in 2008. have you forgotten starting quarterback nick sheridan and the worst OL in living memory? People pretend like RR walked into some cushy situation and screwed it up, when in reality he inherited the worst Michigan roster in generations.
Thanks for this. Fundamentally, a man is either a good coach who can win football games and build a successful program, or he's not. Stoops, Meyer, Brown, Miles and RR are - objectively - good football coaches who have proven their abilities to be successful. The criticism of these types of coaches says more about the fickleness of fans than it does about the coaches.
I still don't get it: RR won 40 games his last 4 years at WVU, but half the fanbase is ready to run him out of town because they feel entitled to perpetual, uninterrupted success. Nobody's entitled to anything. I've yet to hear anyone explain precisely how any other coach could have taken over this program in 2008 and made it into a top ten team by now. I've heard a lot of people declare the results since then "unacceptable" though. Whatever that means.
The line of thought you're advancing - "Why wouldn't you want to depend on your offense for 2-3 scores instead of 5-6?" - assumes there are people here who want to depend on the offense to put up 35-42 points a game. Which is false. Nobody's arguing in favor of having a mediocre defense. Everybody here wants a '97 defense. Nobody is saying, "because our offense is good, let's not worry about defense."
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Bobby's "little" brother Frank - on the Pinckney 8th grade football squad - is already a monster too.
Damn, Bryan, you absolutely killed it. A great piece of art or music can crystalize what you're feeling when those feelings are still buried in a swirling morass of confused and amorphous anxieties, dread-fears, and hope. I couldn't quite put my finger on where the years, months, weeks, and days leading up tonight had my head, but in this article you did exactly that in a way that I wasn't ready for. [inside voice]: LFG.
So if I have the Hulu live and get NBC live, will the game be on NBC or only "Peacock"?
The problem is that even if one of these kids filed this lawsuit today, it wouldn't get resolved for at least 18 to 24 months and by that time the point would be moot for everyone involved in the case.
I'm not too up on the NCAA rules or what potential consequences to another school might be, but one way to do it might be for one of the kids to find a school that is willing to take up the fight against this kind of thing, enroll in that school and have the school announce that he's going to play without sitting out a year - essentially announce that the school and the kid are deeming the LOI fraudulently induced and invalid. Then let the original school and the NCAA sue the school and the kid, such that the old school and the NCAA would have to prove that the LOI is valid and enforceable. Meanwhile maybe the kid plays or redshirts. Probably no school would want to fight the NCAA on that though(?).
With a solid defense, improving O-line and a competent run game, Morris doesn't have to be "great" or even "good" to competently play the role we'll need him to play in this offense. Seems like a tough kid with all the physical ability you need, do people really think that Harbaugh can't turn this kid into just an average Big 10 QB pretty quickly? That's not the highest bar in the world.
This is might the dumbest thing I've ever seen on these boards.
I need a smoke after that...
”I don’t take vacations. I don’t get sick. I don’t observe major holidays. I’m a jackhammer.”
Searchbits is my binky
?
Sure, but if you can't separate the signal from the noise then the numbers are meaningless.
The biggest problem is that people here are acting like 3 weeks of statistics means a goddam thing. They don't.
Maybe in little league or beer league softball, but in real baseball you ALWAYS put the guy with the better arm in RF, no exceptions. The point is to keep the runner from going from 1st to 3rd on a single to right.
Anyone who's thought enough about baseball to ask a question like this should really read The Book, by Tom Tango. The answer's in there. Basically, the risk of getting thrown out at second outweighs the reward of getting to second. The Book is an easy read and really changes the way you watch baseball.
If the NCAA smacks tOSU hard enough that they have to get rid of Tressell, why would Meyer - who could have damn near whichever job he wants - want to take over a program being hit with scholarship limits, playoff bans and so forth? Seems like he can wait around for the perfect job to open up, this wouldn't be it.
What did he say, exactly?
Before everyone has a fit about how classless it is to "make fun of" the previous regime - which, yes, of course - why don't we take breath and realize nobody here knows what was actually said. Michigan Student's account of the speech was pretty sloppy and vague, nothing to start (or continue) crucifying Brandon over.
If you read my post, you'd have seen that I was asking if practices are filmed, because I don't know. Thanks for the prickish answer though.
catching the ball.
He talks about watching game film from last year to see what they have on defense, but is there also film of practices from last year for the new staff to watch? Seems like that would be pretty helpful, since probably only half the players on the team ever saw the field last year.
Playing with Legos is one of the most popular majors at tSIO.
Call would have still been blown, regardless of what the commissioner did the next day. The crowd doesn't go insane with joy, teammates don't carry you off the field, there is no euphoria. Selig could have put him in the history books, but the magic of perfect games is the moment of the last out. Even if Selig *fixed* it, that's not justice.
When Joyce had the press conference the following day, where he came out and owned up to his mistake and apologized to AG, I remember wishing my sons were old enough to watch and see how a man - a real man - confronts a mistake. I've got an incredible amount of respect for that guy.
MBAs are for sobers.
The fact is, a law school education costs $150,000 and MOST legal jobs don't pay enough to comfortably pay that off. The jobs that do, suck. I'm a 04 UMLS grad, and since I never went into BIGLAW - I've had jobs where I get to see my kids - student loans are the bane of my existence. I could almost drive two BMWs for what I pay in loans every month. I always advise against going to law school, unless you (a) know what lawyers really do everyday (drudgery) and (b) you get some great scholarship.
+1 for K College
What we "look like" to people who have no clue what is *actually happening* is irrelevant. If we get a good coach thursday, nobody's going to give a shit that we were bummed out tuesday. We all can see about 5% of what's going on, that we haven't hired someone is not necessarily evidence that things are going wrong. The self righteous presumptions are getting out of hand.
raise
prodigal son looms
raise your weary heads, look west
to the horizon
This going to be on tv or anything?
I'm not precisely sure what all's fueling this media back and forth, but I think we can assume that today harbaugh's on a plane or having lunch or driving home, or unpacking, or doing a million things besides whispering to 'sources' about which way he's leaning or not leaning.
I mean, has the guy actually said anything to anybody? I'm as hooked on the he said/he said about this as anyone, but is there any reason to believe that anyone out there has any legitimate basis for their opinion?
NFL Head Coach Salaries. $4mil is would be in the top 1/4 of the NFL, fwiw.
I mostly agree, except I think it's pretty clear that he was pitching injured for a good portion of 2008 - velocity dropped, GB% dropped - and his 2010 is not so out of line with his 2005-2007 FIPs which averaged 3.50.
But bottom line is that it Dombrowski couldn't really trust perry or zumaya to own the 8th inning next year, so he had to go out and pay going rates for a setup guy. I didn't like the 3rd year any more than you do, but 5.5m a year is close to market value for these kinds of arms anymore, as shown by the other reliever contracts I cited.
I know all that, that's why I didn't predict his ERA would be 1.34 again. His ERA based on his peripherals last year should have been 2.43. Even if you add a run to that number, a guy with a 3.40 era over 200 high leverage innings is worth $16m.
But since you're being a negative nancy, let me highlight the positives: he came back from a year off following surgery throwing harder than he ever has, and apparently is healthy. 7/1 k/bb is elite and is no accident. Dombrowski has scouts that apparently love the guy.
Do I think he ever repeats 2009? No. Does he have to in order to be worth his contract? No. Would I have signed him to this deal? No, for the reasons you stated, but I think it's perfectly defensible.
I think that's overstating it. If he gives us 200 (high leverage) innings of 3.00 era ball over three years, that's worth $16mil. Non-closer relievers are getting PAID this year, for whatever reason, so benoit's deal isn't really an outlier: Feliciano got $8m/2yrs, Jenks got $12m/2rys, Crain got $13m/3yrs, Downs got $15m/3yrs, Putz got $10m/2yrs, and Takahashi got $8m/2yrs.
Yeah, this is presumably the motivation behind pegging Phil Coke as a starter earlier in the offseason. He was a very good starter in the minors before the Yankees moved him to the pen (because they didn't need starters) in the middle of 2008. He's got three pitches and a good frame so the tigers think he can maybe pull off what CJ Wilson did last year. Hopefully him and galarraga can hold the #4-#5 starter fort until oliver shows up next year and turner shows up in 2012.
Dombrowski's methodical. None of the moves are particularly awesome by themselves, but he's building a good roster for 2011 without sacrificing much financial flexibility after next season. All told, these moves give the Tigers a solid roster that can contend in the AL Central in 2011 and 12 without giving out long, exorbitant contracts to anyone:
(1) The Inge and Peralta signings are not sexy, or all that interesting, but these are good moves because there were no better alternatives. They're both close to average players and unless you want to go out and spend $80mil on adrian beltre there aren't any viable 3B on the FA market and SS is even thinner. Holes filled adequately, move along.
(2) Victor Martinez is a solid bat at a reasonable cost. he'll catch twice a week, spell Cabrera at 1B and DH the rest of the time. Would maybe have preferred dunn's bat, but he doesn't give you the positional flexibility that VMart does. Hole filled nicely.
(3) the Benoit deal looks a little rich, but he solidifies the back end of the bullpen. again, not sexy or interesting, but a decent little move that fills a hole.
(4) Same with Magglio: Werth and Crawford are better, sure, but they got ridiculous contracts elsewhere. Again, resigning an aging RF for 1 year isn't exciting, but it's a smart way to fill a hole without committing too much salary into the future.
(5) Starting pitching: We've not gone after pavano because he'll want at least a 3 year deal and we don't want to tie up too much money/years in the rotation when we have (a) scherzer and porcello getting more expensive over the next 3 years and (b) a handful of guys - coke, oliver and turner - likely moving into the rotation in the next few years.
Yeah, but he broke his ankle and missed ended up missing out on that. It was worth $15m or so.
Good solid move, especially considering the alternatives: at least this saves us from having to have 4-way pillowfight/cage-match to fill LF and RF from the likes of clete thomas, casper wells, brennan boesch, ryan raburn and the bloated corpse of carlos guillen. And I like raburn.
#2 is not a fact.
You can't really assume that certain recruits go elsewhere because of DB's schedule. It's a factor, but nobody can say with any certainty how big of one it is unless the kids come out and say it. And Brandon's said repeatedly that he evaluates ALL of the universities coaches/programs after their seasons, regardless of the coaches contractual situation, nothing unusual about him doing it, only unusual that it's so hyped this year.
You also have to consider that if RR quits, he's not just going to waltz into another head coaching position at an elite program. How would that look, his defensive staff fields a terrible defense, Brandon tries to replace that staff and RR quits because he can't have his way? Who wants to hire a guy that does that? But then, RR sure doesn't strike me as a quitter.
How can I be certain that Brian will use my donation on alcohol, rather than on something wasteful, like food, clothing or shelter?
I don't think 4th quarter or second half performance necessarily measures the performance of the S&C staff. I mean, it's just as likely that it's only because of Barwis & Co's extraordinary efforts that the team played as well as it did. Performance = [baseline talent] x [coaching] x [conditioning], you can't point to performance and tie it to one or the other thing without knowing the distribution of other factors.
That said, I think you have to look at it more on a per-player basis. Are players developing physically the way the coaches want them too? I'd imagine that running the pace of offense that we do requires everyone on that side of the ball to be better conditioned than a normal offense (resting 10-15 seconds between plays rather than 30-40). Don't know exactly if Barwis is BARWIS!! but I do know that you can't dismiss his performance based on late game team performance.
Maybe I misseed something, but are these numbers just offense or some amalgamation of offense and defense?
What is that even supposed to mean? That Dave Brandon told Wojo that if we lose to OSU then RR's gone? Yeah, I'm sure.
More likely: Wojo has to write columns to get his paycheck, so he churns out tired, uninformed drivel like this.
ummm, Michigan's roster was pretty crappy in 2008. have you forgotten starting quarterback nick sheridan and the worst OL in living memory? People pretend like RR walked into some cushy situation and screwed it up, when in reality he inherited the worst Michigan roster in generations.
Thanks for this. Fundamentally, a man is either a good coach who can win football games and build a successful program, or he's not. Stoops, Meyer, Brown, Miles and RR are - objectively - good football coaches who have proven their abilities to be successful. The criticism of these types of coaches says more about the fickleness of fans than it does about the coaches.
I still don't get it: RR won 40 games his last 4 years at WVU, but half the fanbase is ready to run him out of town because they feel entitled to perpetual, uninterrupted success. Nobody's entitled to anything. I've yet to hear anyone explain precisely how any other coach could have taken over this program in 2008 and made it into a top ten team by now. I've heard a lot of people declare the results since then "unacceptable" though. Whatever that means.
The line of thought you're advancing - "Why wouldn't you want to depend on your offense for 2-3 scores instead of 5-6?" - assumes there are people here who want to depend on the offense to put up 35-42 points a game. Which is false. Nobody's arguing in favor of having a mediocre defense. Everybody here wants a '97 defense. Nobody is saying, "because our offense is good, let's not worry about defense."
Wow, I see more thoughtful, informed opinion writing than that article on these message boards every single day. People pay that guy?