Your predictions for Michigan at MSU
Get them in now, while it's early!
Though I'm seriously concerned about our offense's ability to get it done against an actually good front 7 that's going to sell out against the run, I think in a lot of ways, they have more riding on this game and no matter what Vegas says, they are the ACTUAL LOGICAL favorites. Though they do get their stops in, in the end that pressure negates the home-field advantage, as does a very smart gameplan from Gorgeous Al. We overcome a bad Denard INT or two with a couple turnovers ourselves, and win a tense one.
Michigan 24 - MSU 16
October 13th, 2011 at 4:27 PM ^
MSU is over-rated due to a meaningless statistic: their defensive ranking. The stat is skewed by performances against a DII team, an uncompetitive team (Fla. Atlantic), and a Mac team.
Consider the BCS level games MSU played to get that #1 defensive ranking: a depleted OSU team that played a miserable offensive game - what was Bauserman's passing stat? - but that still held them to a very low scoring result, and a Notre Dame that dominated them and hung 31 points on the so-called #1 defense.
Think their defensive stat means a damned thing? OK: statistically their ranking is better than Alabama's.
It's better than LSU's.
Does anyone here think that Michigan State could beat Alabama or LSU on Saturday? Or hold them to one or two scores?
Didn't think so.
Last week, Northwestern was anointed the Upset Queen by the pundits. If I recall, NWU got clobbered. This week, the pundits have MSU, another paper tiger.
I get that we're still rebuilding. I get that we have a way to go. But the only way we lose to MSU this year is if I lose my lucky socks.
And that ain't happening.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:30 PM ^
Last week, I was throwing stuff at the TV in the second quarter and smiling by the fourth. I expect to have a similar experience this Saturday - I just hope it happens in the same order.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^
Last week I exhibited amazing self-restraint when I refrained from firing the remote at the TV when the B1G Network was having broadcast issues. I actually thought about the ramifications of doing so before I released (i.e. broken flat-screen). With that, I think I officially reached adulthood (at age 36).
October 13th, 2011 at 4:31 PM ^
Michigan-35
MSU-7
I can't see us showing up unprepared for this game.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^
This will not be easy going for our offense. MSU's defense is probably a shade better than ND's as their secondary seems less likely to melt down. I think we can exploit their OL, though.
If we're -1 or better on turnovers, I think we win. -2 or worse, Sparty wins.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:41 PM ^
We're gonna whip ass and go straight to the B10 Championship game where we'll proceed to crash and burn in a great big ball of fire against a monster Wisconsin team...
October 13th, 2011 at 4:40 PM ^
this Saturday in EL it favors us in the running game. State can not hold down this Michigan offense all game long this year. UM 35-21. MSU scores the first TD we come back down the field and tie it at 7-7 then take a 14-7 lead going into half time. That's when we kill Sparty in the 2nd half.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:42 PM ^
28-17 if we win.
24-21 if we lose.
I'm leaning toward the former.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:45 PM ^
A thread so good it needs three versions. For the third time:
Michigan 34
MSU 17
I suppose doing this three times gives people who want to take advantage opportunities to make three different "predictions" and have a better chance for "bragging rights," but I will just stick to my original thought.
Maybe we should do this again tomorrow just in case Cousins sprains a pinky in practice.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:47 PM ^
Good guys: 21
MooU: 35
Caveats
1. That's clearly a holdover from last years game.
2. I hate disappointment.
3.The powers that be cannot be so glorious as to bless us with wins over ND, MSU, and OSU in the same season.
4.I just jinxed OSU, but problem for another day...
HOWEVA!
Brady Hoke poops magic and Molk destroys Worthy.
So screw that!
MICHIGAN(FERGODSAKES) 31
MooU-28
in a squeaker!
October 13th, 2011 at 4:50 PM ^
I was riding my high of "we are back in the top 10 suck it Sparty" excitement, and then, because of this thread, I stopped for a moment to think about my real prediction for this game.
And it made me a sad panda. MSU is pretty damn good on D. Our offense is pretty damn good too, but we thought the same thing last year until they game planned perfectly to stop us. Their offense is not great, but it does feature a pretty solid, accurate, experienced QB, and in the past that has meant DOOM. So I am scared.
Can I predict a tie - 34-34? My heart is saying "we have Hoke, we are back, it's just like it used to be and we will beat Sparty." My head is saying, "shut up heart. They are going to shut down our offense, and pick apart our defense."
Screw it - 34-31 good guys, with a key interception by Kovacs.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:44 PM ^
Their O-line is hurting Cousins. He hasn't been very good against ND or OSU:
54/85 63.5% 579 2TD 3INT
Denard against ND:
11/24 45.8% 338 4TD 3INT
16/108 6.8YPC 1TD
Cousins against ND:
34/53 64.2% 329 1TD 1INT
4/-20 -5YPC
Obviously he's accurate, but his yards per completion aren't high, and he's thrown more INT's than TD's against teams with good defenses. He also can't run, which helps our D a lot.
October 13th, 2011 at 4:56 PM ^
I say 31 UM - 17 Sparty
Go Blue!!!
October 13th, 2011 at 5:02 PM ^
34-20. Good guys.
1/2 of the 20 come off turnovers.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:03 PM ^
I'm gonna go with:
UM 27
MSU 24
-MooU is up 17-10 at the half and we come out firing in the second half and win with a last-minute DRob touchdown run.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:08 PM ^
Sorry to say this, but I am leaning MSU. I just have a terrible feeling about this game. It is a close one all the way, but ends with a heart breaker interception by Denard in OT.
MSU wins 34-31 in OT.
I really hope I am wrong.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^
Michigan 35
Sparty 17
October 13th, 2011 at 5:09 PM ^
M 24 - MSU 21.
I'm not sold on MSU's defense - they were pushed around by YSU for half of that game, and ND was able to move the ball on them to greater effect than the 3.6 ypc they showed on the scoreboard. This definitely feels like a game that will be close, but UM has more offensive firepower and a defense that can at least keep MSU on its toes. People forget but last year UM lost that game in the second quarter because they couldn't get off the field, a problem that persisted the rest of the season. That hasn't been the case this year, and I suspect that MSU will derp themselves into some bad situations and UM will capitalize. Worthy is definitely scary and Burough (sp?) is a good LB, but UM has played good defenses before and been able to move the ball. The difference now is that UM's defense is not a sieve, and that should be the difference.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:14 PM ^
27-17 go blue! Msu's defense is overrated!
October 13th, 2011 at 5:16 PM ^
67-65 in triple OT, Tate with the game winner baby!
October 13th, 2011 at 5:25 PM ^
Around 4 pm, couches will burn and tear gas will be sprayed. That is all.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:30 PM ^
M 24, Aggies 10.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:33 PM ^
OT indeed, and not worthy of its own thread.
Just wanted to say congrats to everyone who passed the bar exams of their respective states. Michigan's results were released today, and many of us will likely be having some drinks tonight.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:46 PM ^
I would say all will be having drinks tonight. Just some will be accompanied by smiles while others with tears and too much alcohol. Kind of like what will happen at about 3 pm on Saturday.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:52 PM ^
I'm assuming you passed it, WD? Congrats if you did; that's awesome.
October 13th, 2011 at 7:22 PM ^
Indeed, I was fortunate enough to pass. I never want to take another bar exam again. Thanks for the congrats.
October 13th, 2011 at 6:38 PM ^
Sweet! More Lawyers just what we need right now.
October 13th, 2011 at 8:56 PM ^
Exactly - talk about the most over saturated profession in America. Even the kids I know who are graduating from great law schools are having a hard time finding a decent job.
October 13th, 2011 at 8:52 PM ^
Congrats to all the bar takers - as someone who has taken (and passed) a couple of bar exams, it is a great accomplishment and one that I would never wish on my worst enemy!
October 13th, 2011 at 5:35 PM ^
Beacuse I got 22/1 odds on that winning margin and bet $55... Drinks on me if it happens!!
October 13th, 2011 at 5:38 PM ^
M 28 MSU 20
October 13th, 2011 at 5:42 PM ^
As much as I want to say Big Blue will win I just don't think I can. I'm not sure we can come out flat ala NW and recover like we did. If those winds pan out it'll be old school pound the football with a few short screens to open up the run for both sides. I'm worried that Denard wont get the outside lanes and Fitz or Smith won't be able to pound it up the middle. I PRAY I'm completely wrong but I'll say:
<br>
<br>Good Guys 17
<br>MooU 20
<br>
<br>I hate my pick....
<br>
<br>
October 13th, 2011 at 5:42 PM ^
Book it right next to Great Expectations.
Go Blue.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:52 PM ^
Michigan 38 State 27
October 13th, 2011 at 6:06 PM ^
A few things I'll be watching
- Denard's arm vs. 8 men in the box. I think MSU will crowd the box early, and roll #9 down as an extra man. Press coverage on the outside opens up 3-step slant/fade routes with a single safety. Completing some passes early will keep the OLBs honest in their alignment, usually splitting the distance on the slot receiver. Michigan receivers getting good releases against press coverage is also important.
- Michigan OL vs Gholston and Worthy. The other D-linemen don't worry me, but these two will make some plays. Worthy is going to get a couple TFL's, but getting doubles on him when he doesn't get a good jump could keep him under control in the running game. Getting linemen off ot Bullogh will also be important as he reads and reacts very quickly. Controlling Gholston on the pass rush and at least chipping him on backside pursuit is also important.
- RVB and Mike Martin vs double teams. MSU had a hard time single blocking OSU's dline, and did not do a good job blocking linebackers when they managed to get to them. Holding up to doubles and winning single battles will allow the LBs to flow to the ball and hopefully not bite on play action with receivers and TE's running crossing routes.
- Cunningham vs Michigan Secondary. This is the guy MSU wants to hit on a big play. Even when he's covered, he can make a play on the ball. I would feel pretty good about this matchup if Woolfolk were healthy. Michigan also cannot let guys get open when MSU goes max protection and its 2 on 7 in the secondary.
- New packagaes. I have a feeling Borges and Mattison have a few things they've been working on but haven't unleashed. Mike Martin could be moving around a bunch at the line like we saw in the spring on passing downs. I could see Borges giving some looks they haven't seen, such as bubble screens if alignment allows, speed option out of the I, or triple option out of the gun. MSU has seemed to have something ready for M they hadn't shown in previous games the last few years.
- I think MSU gets a big play from Cunningham, and has a couple frustrating long drives using 3 step drops, short play action passes, and 3 yard runs. I also think/hope/pray that Denard finally puts an entire game together with good mechanics, and loosens up the MSU D so the ground game gets going in the second half. I'll take Michigan 24-20.
October 13th, 2011 at 5:55 PM ^
I really don't see how we lose this game. I could write a ten page paper on this but I'll just give you three good reasons not to worry:
1. MSU's Defense is Overrated - I'm sick and tired of hearing about MSU's defense. Yes it is a decent to good defense but nothing amazing. Their competition has been laughable and their only decent team that they played against (Notre Dame) they lost. They lost by 31 points. The defense was directly responsible for 24 of those points. Worthy is the only person that really scares me on this defense.
2. MSU's Offense is Struggling- They put up 13 points against Notre Dame and 10 against Ohio State. Yes they are coming off a bye week and yes they have more time to add a few wrinkles but that's about it. Cunningham will score and I think he will be the key to their offense. The upside is that their is supposed to be 25-40 mph winds during gametime and you need your O-line to give you a few seconds to pass the ball. MSU has been allowing the pocket to shift to cover up their difficiencies and I don't think this will work as well as it has against us. They have weapons on offense but they haven't been working well against decent teams at all.
3. Hoke and Company- Since day 1 Hoke has put a huge emphasis on rivalry games. Count down clocks are all over the place. We are 6-0. We are bowl eligible. We already experienced a night road game (IMO night road games are worse than morning road games because night games give you much more time to kill/psych yourself out/overthink things etc.) We actually have a defense this year and our offense is actually building off of last year instead of regressing. On top of all this our half time adjustments/coaching talks have been flat out tremendous.
I believe MSU is a decent/good team in which time will only tell. They will score and they will put up a good fight but their is only one thing that visiting fans and alumni have to fear in East Lansing this year. Burning couches boys...burning couches...
Homerism Pick: 34-17 UM
Realistic Pick: 24-21 UM
October 13th, 2011 at 6:13 PM ^
but it's served me well already against WMU, ND, SDSU, and NU so:
Gut feeling: MSU 34 M 28. Denard throws at least 2 picks
Gut-gut hopeful feeling based on prior 6 games: MAMU 20 M 28. M forces at least 2 turnovers
October 13th, 2011 at 6:18 PM ^
I'll put it like this - I let her play NCAA Football on the iPad, and without prompting from me other than setting it up as UM vs. MSU, she ran seven straight triple option plays and marched down the field 84 yards for a touchdown on the first drive.
I think we have this.
October 13th, 2011 at 6:33 PM ^
That's my prediction. Not necessarily 47-21 (IIRC). But I'm thinking:
-Road game against a ranked team.
-Everyone saying "Well . . . probably not gonna turn out well for you guys."
-Home team rather overrated.
-We will start off on fire.
-The paper the next day will read how this was an impressive statement win - "We're Back."
Michigan 35-17.
October 13th, 2011 at 6:33 PM ^
Michigan 27-13
October 13th, 2011 at 7:39 PM ^
The announcers will confuse Sparty for South Florida at least on air twice.
Michigan 49
South Florida... I mean Little Brother 10
October 13th, 2011 at 6:44 PM ^
tight win for us OR another soul crushing blowout.
Just win, baby!
October 13th, 2011 at 6:46 PM ^
up 41-10 a la woody hayes and Hoke shows no mercy. However, we will not lose the next year a la woody hayes. this could be the start of a 6 or 7 in a row streak
October 13th, 2011 at 6:48 PM ^
"Michigan with fire in their eyes, and revenge in their hearts, they've been waiting twelve long months to get back at these Jolly Green Giants. For that humiliating 34-17 loss that Meechigan suffered at the hands of Michigan State last October in Ann Arbor, and then adding insult to injury, the head Spartan himself the head honcho himself, had the audacity the unmitigated caw to say "I'm From Ohio, thats why beating Michgian is such a kick for me. We will continue to do it....I promise you that!." ooooooooo, that's been a bitter pill to swallow for the Wolverines, THEY WANT STATE TODAY! THEY NEED STATE TODAY! AND BELIEVE YOU ME, THE WOLVERINES INTEND TO HAVE A PIECE OF MICHIGAN STATE THIS SATURDAY!"
October 13th, 2011 at 6:55 PM ^
A surprisingly slow second half will result in a 24-10 win for Michigan. The new defense will be flocking to the ball, tackles will be made, coverage solid. Countess steps up and shows his potential, 2 INTs in a HUGE coming out party paid for by the MSU faithful.
October 13th, 2011 at 7:00 PM ^
42-10 Meeeeechigan. Call Vegas right now!
October 13th, 2011 at 7:10 PM ^
Wolverines
October 13th, 2011 at 7:25 PM ^
49-3.
October 13th, 2011 at 7:29 PM ^
Michigan fans have to be the most pessimistic bunch in the country. Most fanbases think they'll win even when they're not good - Michigan fans think they'll lose even when they have the better team.
And don't give me any of this "I'm just being realistic" bullshit, it's pathetic.
Their defense is marginally better than ours. Our offense is wildy better than theirs. ST is about a wash. Michigan wins by at least two touchdowns.