Your Personal Betting Locks for Week 1 of College Football
Michigan football is days away and Week 1 officially starts tomorrow! Even if you don't bet, what are some spreads that are catching your attention? If you have a lock, please feel free to share.
My lock for Week 1 is Tulsa +22.5 points against MSU. MSU tends to struggle in their first game of the year and a 3-touchdown spread requires MSU to put up at least 35 points for a realistic chance at covering.
I don't care what musical chairs MSU has played with their assistant coaches...It's still the same O-line, QB, and RB's who scored a combined 2 Touchdowns over their last 4 games.
What picks do you guys like? (This could make me look like an idiot when MSU wins 34-10).
August 28th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
i love the tulsa pick but my lock is cincinnati over ucla -2.5. this is saying something for me because i hate laying points. i think cinci runs train over ucla for a comfortable 2 score win.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^
Friendly internet bet if pride, I’ll take UCLA all day.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:33 PM ^
I'm taking Miami and the points vs. Florida. I also like the under.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:43 PM ^
I could go either way in the UCLA / Cinci game, but I like the over at 57.5.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
Here are my Thursday game picks:
PICK: Cincinnati -2.5
PICK: Georgia Tech +37
PICK: BYU +6
PICK: Utah @ BYU Under 47.5
I have a write up on my site in case any of you fine people feel like lending a brother a click :-)
https://cfbstatnation.com/week-1-thursday-8-29-19-computer-model-betting-preview/
August 28th, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
3 of 4 team totals dead on in Week 1? Nice work.
What does your model say for Michigan this year?
August 28th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
Right now my projections are using 2018 data. Can’t get legit data for 2019 until after week 3. Therefore this week has only marginal legitimacy and that will go down in weeks 2 and 3 but starting week 4 thing will get more reliable.
I don’t have win totals projected out.
August 28th, 2019 at 5:12 PM ^
Doesn’t Utah have a pretty good offense this season?
August 28th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
We’ll see! I’m hoping for early season bugs gumming up the works a little in week 1.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
I bet 'em all. Good luck to us!
August 28th, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^
Your site (and picks) look great! Keep this up, I'll be checking in each week!
August 29th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
For anyone who’s interested here are my Friday game picks:
https://cfbstatnation.com/week-1-friday-8-30-19-computer-model-betting-preview/
August 29th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^
thanks again!
August 28th, 2019 at 2:44 PM ^
No. 14 Utah at BYU (+5.5)- I'll take Utah, I think they are a darkhorse to make the playoff.
FAU at No. 5 Ohio State (-27.5)- OSU, I think Day runs it up in his first game to try to get fields comfortable
August 28th, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
It's really weird to be a Kiffin fan this weekend.......but Go Owls!!!
August 28th, 2019 at 2:46 PM ^
West Virginia -6 against James Madison
WVU ought to win by 14+
August 28th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
Maybe but WVU has a new coach/QB and lost a lot of good skill position players. And JMU is a really good FCS team. I think that could be a close one.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:58 PM ^
JMU has a new head coach as well, who is a WVU alum (though they're FCS #1 ranked team and return 19 starters)
this is also why i don't gamble
August 28th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
Agreed. I'm always so sure I'm right, and then 5 minutes into the game it's clear I couldn't be more wrong.
I never gamble, but especially on FCS games. I don't know nearly enough about them to have a chance at being right.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:46 PM ^
I like USF +12.5 at home against Wiscy. I'd make it my:
August 28th, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
I like South Florida +13.5 against Wisconsin (in Florida) and to actually give the Badgers a little something to think about in the second half, and I think Virginia big over Pitt easily covering -2.5.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:55 PM ^
Wasn't South Florida bad against the run last year, though? Wisconsin probably won't be able to pass worth a damn, but they may not need to.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
Duke (+35 when I placed my bet) against Alabama. Alabama has a new offensive coordinator plus some injury and off the field issues.
South Florida (+13.5) against Wisconsin. Night game at home for USF, new QB for Wisconsin plus they won't like playing in this humidity.
Tulsa (+22.5) over MSU for reasons already stated.
Florida A&M (+47.5) over UCF. I just don't think UCF will cover this, especially in first game of season.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:55 PM ^
Never bet against Nick Saban in an opener against a power 5 team. Alabama is going to win like 53-9, I'd bet the house. On the same hand, always bet against Alabama against group of 5 and FCS teams. But I'm also a moron.
August 28th, 2019 at 5:14 PM ^
UCF looks tasty. And I don’t think it matters who is calling the plays for Alabama. My grandmother would have the same success.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
I think MSU -22.5 is reasonable. Tulsa was bad last year, like really bad, and will be again this year. MSU put up 38 on a much better Utah State (compared to Tulsa) team last year in the opener. I don't think MSU's offense will even be mediocre, but I don't think Tulsa will be able to do much against MSU's D. I wouldn't be surprised if MSU covered putting up like 30 points.
For me the one that jumps out is USF +13. The game is a Friday night game, @USF (hot and humid) and Wisconsin is starting Jack Coan. Plus they lose 4/5ths of their starting OL and 3/4ths of their LBs, the only good part of their defense last year. I wouldn't be surprised if that's a close 1 score Wisconsin win.
The other one is LT +20.5 against Texas just because Texas plays to their level of competition.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:55 PM ^
Yeah I don’t think MSU is great but the extent to which people are under selling them is out of control. Tulsa is a bad team and MSU is getting a fair amount of guys back from injury that weren’t part of or fully healthy for the end of season stretch. They won’t be good but they’ll be good enough to beat out 30+ up on Tulsa
August 29th, 2019 at 7:12 AM ^
This very well could happen and why it's a bet. But you have to go back to the very first game of 2017 to find the last time MSU beat anybody by more than 22.5.
That was against Bowling Green where they won 35-10. Even their games against Furman, Western Michigan, and Central Michigan have been relatively close.
They don't typically blow out anybody, even if it's a shitty non-conference team.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:51 PM ^
Give me
South Carolina -9.5 vs. UNC
Boise St +5 vs. FSU
Fresno State +13.5 vs. USC
August 28th, 2019 at 2:52 PM ^
Every year I make a weekend trip to Vegas with the sole purpose being to bet on football, both college and the NFL, for the weekend. A few truths:
1. I get my ass kicked betting college football. I never bet Michigan (too emotional) and I almost never cash a winning ticket.
2. I do better with the NFL but still lose more frequently than I win.
3. I always go home with less money than I arrived with
I suck at betting.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^
betting football, college or pro, is difficult to consistently win. vegas has always been good at getting it close. i've been at it for over 25 years and almost exclusively bet mid-season mlb and college hoops. there's tremendous value with mlb and ncaa hoops underdog money lines. so much value that you only have to sustain about 40-45% winners to turn a profit.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:03 PM ^
Amen. I love to have really smart thoughts about football and then monetarily prove to myself that I don't know shit.
My one and only gambling lock this year is the Michigan-Maryland Over in which Gattis and Locksley will trade spiteful bombs throughout a meaningless 4th quarter...which of course means that'll be a rain-shortened 14-10 game with 37 combined turnovers.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:11 PM ^
I'm so dutch I take a weekend trip to Vegas and the only thing I bet on is me against the breakfast buffets.
Even when I win, a few hours later I lose.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:29 PM ^
You should try the George Costanza opposite strategy.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
I've been to Vegas just once, stopping overnight on a road trip out to the west coast. My only gambling was on a slot in the Paris casino, and I won $2.50 on my second pull. I figured that's the furthest I'd ever be ahead, so I quit there. I still have the uncashed voucher pinned to my office bulletin board. There was a separate, glassed-in sports betting room in the hotel casino where I spent the night, and the denizens in that room were... interesting looking.
If I was going to bet, I'd take Wisconsin to beat the spread.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
I need to get going on my picks.
I did my futures picks this past weekend. Bet with my heart. Shea to win Heisman 18/1. Michigan to win Big10, etc.
I even put money on futures with the Lions. lol. I was in Reno and it was house money so no biggie.
August 28th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
I actually like the under in the MSU game better. State might get a shutout on D and until their offense proves they can score double digits against not Rutgers, color me skeptical. O/U is at 47.5
August 28th, 2019 at 3:01 PM ^
I think Oregon as a 6.5 dog v Auburn in Dallas (AT&T Stadium) is way too high. Justin Hebert will either lead Oregon to a win or keep it close. Book it!
August 28th, 2019 at 3:02 PM ^
I might go Georgia Southern +27.5 at LSU. Southern running that option and returning their QB and some defensive pieces. LSU hired new passing game coordinator and looking at running more spread. Could be one of those games that is annoyingly close at half for LSU fans before they pull away late but not 4TD's worth.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
I like this play a lot and will likely jump on it before Saturday. Ga Southern is not a bad squad and like you said, I see this being a close-ish game for 3 1/2 quarters.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
Southern won ten games last year. I don't expect them to win this game but LSU has Texas next week so there's also some look ahead factor.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
It's realistic for MSU to beat Tulsa by a 24-0 score. Ohio St easily covers against FAU. As said elsewhere, Day will use chemical warfare in his first game just to set those heathen minds at ease.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^
Tailgating at the horseshoe/toilet bowl.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
Northwestern @ Stanford u47.5 is my lock of the week. May actually bet it before it lowers.
August 28th, 2019 at 6:37 PM ^
Other than Michigan- Middle Tennessee and Auburn- Oregon, that game is the game I MUST watch this weekend.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^
Plays for Thursday that I am currently on are...
Utah @ BYU Under 47 - 5 Units
Utah -5.5 parlayed with UCLA +3. - 1.5 Units
I also liked the Over in the Cincy / UCLA game but line movement is suggesting I lean towards a No Play.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:26 PM ^
Utah
Cincy
August 28th, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
Oklahoma State -14 at Oregon State
South Florida +13.5 vs Wisconsin
Notre Dame -20 at Louisville
August 28th, 2019 at 5:26 PM ^
I'm louisville all day. Notre dame hasn't been favored by 20+ on the road (ex neutral site) since 2000 against Rutger!
This is also a night game, a blackout, and Louisville is returning 16 starters. Notre dame will win, but not by 20+.
August 28th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Don't bet on Tulsa to not get blown out. They were among the very worst teams in football last year and their coach should have already been fired long ago. They're a total disaster.