"Worst case" Starting Lineup - Football 2024

Submitted by Kilgore Trout on January 12th, 2024 at 2:26 PM

I was curious what the "worst case" lineup would be for Michigan next year if almost literally everyone who could leave left and no new players came in. I took a little liberty with the OL for guys who are past their third year, but aren't really going anywhere. This feels like an 8-4 type team, depending on QB play.

OL - Persi, El Hadi, Crippen, Priebe, Gentry

TE – Loveland, Tonieli

QB – Orji / Denegal / Davis

FB – Bredeson

RB – Hall / Henderson / Cabana

WR – Morris, Morgan, Moore

DL – Moore, Grant, Graham, Guy

LB – Hausman, Rolder

CB – Johnson, Waller / Hill

NK – K Jones

S – Sabb, Hillman

SC Wolverine

January 12th, 2024 at 2:33 PM ^

I appreciate the effort to really do "worst case," but I think some things are missing:

LB -- You forget that Barham has transferred to Michigan from Maryland.  So he'll be in there.

OL -- Hinton probably will start.  And even a worst case scenario should have a couple of (as of yet unknown) transfers in it.

RB -- Mullings needs to be in here, because there is no realistic chance that he leaves.  (And what a beast he is going to be).

DL -- I know this is "worst case," but Stewart looks very likely to return to me.  We'll have another great D line.

So the question is QB.  We'll be fine to excellent at every position group.  But JJ's decision looms very large over Team 145.

Vasav

January 12th, 2024 at 2:42 PM ^

Yea there's guys missing from his list. LB I feel pretty good about, receivers are being missed but weren't irreplaceable, and Mullings looks GREAT when he touches the ball.

IOL and QB are the big ? and I have some faith in this staff on the OL. Without JJ, it still looks like a great team - something like 2021 or one of the pre-Covid teams, but the Big Ten is better now so the result may be a top-15 "bubble" team in the CFP. With JJ, I think we still look like Big Ten contenders, nestled in the top-10, fighting for a shot at a bye.

Midukman

January 13th, 2024 at 9:11 AM ^

Graham and Grant could easily be the best tackle tandem in the country. Hell, they probably were this year by seasons end and Grant could be a top 10 pick. Masons a beast and would be a 1st rounder, but with Grants size and his forever tape of catching Penn states running back who had a 5 yard head start….yeah!

Killer Khakis

January 12th, 2024 at 2:40 PM ^

QB: Davis/Orji

RB: Marshall, Mullings, Hall

WR: Morris, Morgan, Moore????

TE: Loveland, Bredeson, Klein, Tonieli

OL: Persi, El-Hadi, Crippen, Priebe, Hinton

DL: Graham, Benny, Grant, Pierce

Edge: Moore, Guy, Bennett

LB: Rolder, Hauserman, Barnham, Hood

CB: Johnson, McBurrows, Hill, Waller

S: Sabb, Johnson, Berry

If they get JJ back, Edwards, Stewart, and Paige this team is a top 10-15 team next year. They need some depth at WR, edge, corner, safety, and QB. That and we forget: some freshmen can come in and contribute faster than expected, and some guys have had to sit behind others and can be developed more than we think. 

 

Midukman

January 13th, 2024 at 9:15 AM ^

Yeah man. I can’t believe I’m gonna say this, but the D could maybe possibly be better. If that’s even possible. We’re probably gonna lose Minter, sorry but that’s just reality. We need his assistant to just step in and do exactly the same thing. Or possibly promote his dad.

goblue_in_colorado

January 12th, 2024 at 3:19 PM ^

It's really hard to project how tough our schedule is right now. Certainly harder than 2022 or 2023, but the 3 west coast schools are all losing their top QB, RB, and WR plus multiple other offensive starters, and only Oregon has added any impact transfers so far. Those teams were highly reliant on explosive offenses and if they can't replace that production they will be in for a rough first year in the Big Ten. My guess is Michigan is still favored in ~9 games, with Texas, OSU, and 1-2 of UW/OU/USC being the underdog games.

 

chalkeater

January 12th, 2024 at 3:00 PM ^

I like this approach, because then each player that announces a return is a bonus. It's fun to think about where this team will go and how they continue to establish their identity.

My company is based out of Atlanta, so I've had a lot of conversations with Georgia fans about how last year felt after finally breaking through in 2021 - "house money" is the term that comes up a lot. It was amazing to win, but wouldn't have been unbearable to lose at that point, finally having gotten the monkey off their back. I think that will be us next year - but maybe we copy them and just go win the whole thing again for fun. 

If we do, we'll need to follow a path like Georgia did.- they lost 14 starters and had 15 drafted. They brought back Ringo and Nolan Smith but the rest of their defense was unproven and unknown beyond that. Last year was really odd, in that CB2 was the only question, and there seemed to be 4-5 possible answers to it. I think we just have to remember most years in college football are full of questions until 3-4 weeks in. Our staff has shown a great ability to find answers. 

goblue_in_colorado

January 12th, 2024 at 3:07 PM ^

I think Brian's column suggested/implied that Paige, Q. Johnson, & Stewart are likely to come back, and it also seems like Jaden McBurrows and Zeke Berry saw more playing time at DB this season than Jones & Hillman, so if you slot all of those guys in your projected starting defensive lineup consists of 9+ returning guys who saw substantial playing time this year plus Barham who started for Maryland. That feels like a top 10 defense again if you can find someone decent to fill in at CB2. 

As for the offense, it'd be shocking if Hinton and Mullings didn't come back as they're the next in line for significant playing time bumps at OL and RB. The biggest question marks are definitely JJ, a bigger outside WR, and OL depth. It feels like you could address 2 of those 3 in the portal to get the offense up to a top-25 offense.

As for win total, a lot of it depends on how much of a drop off Washington, Oregon, and USC experience losing their starting QBs and other important pieces (e.g., Deboer going to Bama, UW and Oregon losing multiple additional offensive starts on top of their QBs). But even with your worst case scenario they should be favored against at least 7 teams (Fresno State, Arkansas State, Minnesota, Illinois, MSU, Indiana, and Northwestern), underdogs versus Texas and OSU, and TBD versus UW, OU, and USC. In my mind this still feels like a 9-10 win team if Harbaugh comes back and potentially a 10-11 win team if Harbaugh and JJ come back.

jdemille9

January 12th, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^

If Moore succeeds Harbaugh and JJ stays = 11-12 wins 

If Moore is HC and JJ leaves = 8 - 10 wins, I could see this going a number of ways. All depends on the QB play. I could see us having some success with Alex Orji as a Jalen Milroe lite version but unless they land a QB in the portal it's gonna be hard to face our schedule without a difference maker at QB like we have had in JJ.

If Harbaugh and JJ leave and they don't hire Moore = no fucking clue! Depends on who they hire I guess. 

Hensons Mobile…

January 12th, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^

I'm all in on Orji. Can he pass? Of course he can. He's a QB. One more year of seasoning and he'll be all polished up into a sophomore Jalen Milroe. With Mullings and the run game plus the defense, I'm not totally giving up on back-to-back just yet.

jdemille9

January 12th, 2024 at 3:20 PM ^

I'm all for Jalen Milroe 2.0 but we have not seen Orji pass and something tells me he is probably nowhere near as good a passer as Milroe was last year. 

IF he has a full spring AND fall with the no. 1 QB reps then MAYBE he can be that, but I think he's further from 2023 Jalen Milroe than a lot of people seem to believe. 

That said - we could run a power spread in the vein of JT Barrett at OSU. We have the OL and RB's for it. Mix in some simple passing concepts and PA and that could work quite well with Orji at the helm.

But for me, best case for QB is we find a veteran in the portal. Even if he's just an experienced game manager type.

gorilla tactics

January 12th, 2024 at 7:49 PM ^

Sam Webb warning us not to underestimate how aggressively some of our underclassmen are being pursued, and the extent of the tampering that’s going on. 

It seemed like he was hinting at more Amorion Walker-type transfers, as opposed to established starters — somewhat reassuring but ominous nonetheless.

 

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3e0a5dpzOuoE1la7ZBwmtY?si=9-f__ABDSaCv08XELq76xA

NewBlue7977

January 12th, 2024 at 3:31 PM ^

Hinton has already said he is coming back, so I presume he would start.

 

If all the players on the DL leave that are eligible, then I can see Etta breaking through and having a very good season next year.