Won't the First String Defense be pretty Good?
I've read enough on the Interblogwebs about how precarious our defensive situation is going to be this fall. Heck, GBMW even answered a "mailbag" question this morning by claiming he's more concerned about the 2009 defense than he was, with the benefit of hindsight, about the 2008 offense. An offense with, uh, 1 returning starter and zero QB's with relevant playing time or Rich Rod styled spread experience.
So........if we were to look at what would be a predicted first-team defense, I would hypothesize it as:
Graham Martin Van Bergen (Campbell, Banks and Sagesse backing up)
S. Brown Ezeh Mouton Fitzgerald (Brandon Smith, Marell Evans and Herron as backups)
Cissoko M. Williams Emilien Warren (Woolfolk and JT Turner in there too)
If this first-team unit is given the proper rest on the sidelines by the offense (and doesn't have to suffer 50 3 and outs this year), the offense eats up lots of clock with a successful running game, and the team wins the field position battle with its All American punter, I ask the blogosphere:
Isn't that first-team defense good enough to get us to 8-9 wins?
I sure hope so. I don't think anyone is denying that our defense has talent. They're just young, and unproven. The first team, and maybe even some of the second team might be alright, but what happens if one or two players go down? I think most people are worried about depth more than anything. UM cannot afford to lose any players this year.
...the depth is the elephant in the room. Ignoring the depth issue, though, I do think the talent level is high enough. Heck, there are two possible All Americans, a Freshman All-American, and two three-year starters on that defense.
Also, who can resist the Otter? And finally, I forgot to add that Craig Roh will probably be a situational pass rusher, and Brandin Hawthorne will probably be in the LB rotation.
I'll assume the frosh AA is Campbell and the other AA is Graham (both of which is a stretch somewhat) and who is the other AA? Warren?
the more likely freshman AA is JT Turner. He's going to be playing somewhere and often, whether it's S, CB, or nickel.
As for who the two possible AA's are, I would guess Graham, obviously, and then maybe Warren, if healthy.
Oy the linebackers. That's a lot of inexperience on the outside, what with Stevie Brown learning a new position. Lot of inexperience at safety too.
There's no hybrid "quick" position in your starting lineup.
...I'm not clear as to how those players line up. I assumed a 3-man line, and then put 4 "linebackers" in and 4 defensive backs. I know there is the "quick" position and the "spinner" but I've been confused as to which ones, for example, Stevie Brown and Brandon Herron, respectively, are set up for. So, I kept it to a generic base defense to analyze the available talent.
If it walks like a 3-4 and quacks like a 3-4.....
I think even though this isn't being called a 3-4, for all intents and purposes it may as well be analyzed as such. Everything I've read about the deathbacker makes it sound almost exactly like how one of the OLB's is typically used in a 3-4.
That is my understanding to the base defense. 3 down lineman and 4 LBs with the strongside OLB being the deathbacker that lines up on line of scrimmage like a standup DE, and the weakside OLB being the the quick S/LB hybrid. Interestingly this makes the the strongside DE more like a 3-tech DT, with the size of RVB and BG they could fill that role.
It will be interesting to see which 4 LBs start. I think the best 4 are: Ezeh, Mouton, Fitzgerald and Brown. Which one of those 4 plays deathbacker? Ezeh?
Right now I think Herron is the early leader for deathbacker, so then you drop Fitz to the bench.
8-9 wins seems like too much, but you got to believe that both the D and O will be adequate to good, so expect an adequate to good year (not by UM expectations). 6-7 wins is the most reasonable.
According to Rivals, the "quick" is the DE/LB hybrid.
None of those four linebackers plays "deathbacker," unless Mouton gets in there (he didn't practice in the spring, so I don't know where he'll fit). The hybrid LB/DE is pretty much Watson, Herron, or Evans at this point. The hybrid S/LB is Brown or perhaps one of the freshmen (Jones or Hawthorne) if Brown gets hurt or doesn't produce.
I hear they like Hawthorne for that position.
There are some positiives personnel wise which should give some hope. Graham is a star. Martin and Mouton in the making. Cissoko has some positives, and Warren was very good as a freshman, but hobbled last year. Turner looks to be a great addition, but will be a freshman.
Ezeh is not very good in my opinion and the remaining LB's are untested. Safety is a huge concern.
Can this unit be better than last year - well that is not a huge hurdle to overcome, but the personnel itself does not provide any guarantees, and on paper is probably about the same, if not a little worse than last year.
With the exception of the Purdue game, I do not really think that scheme was the problem, and this will by no means be a dominant unit.
8-9 wins no I don't think so.
First year in robinson's defensive system and little depth in the secondary. I see the opponent's defense holding back the young offense enough to keep the defense on the field too long which will tire at the end of games.
Defense good not only for WINS but also PREVENTING LOSSES. M defense not only INEXPERIENCED but also NEW SYSTEM. Secondary not only YOUNG but also SAFETY HATING GOD. Roh not only SEXY but also GOOD EYEBROWS.
Just epinion, no sugarcoat.
I like that style. It's informative, funny, and shockingly understandable.
...link on the left, sir.
I think Thor will be huge this year, if not right away then pretty quickly. That Rittenberg blogger on ESPN is down on the defensive line. I disagree. With a core rotation of Graham, Martin, Van Bergen and Campbell, I actually think the line will be the strength of the defense. Back seven historically is the concern and will be again. I won't believe it until I actually see the missed tackles, missed assignments, wrong angles and general torching stop.
I certainly don't think the DL will be a strength, with the exception of Graham. Martin is a sophomore, and while he was solid as a freshman, he wasn't spectacular. Van Bergen hasn't done very much at all. The backups are all young or just not very good.
I think the linebackers are the best bet to be difference makers. I'm not entirely on the Obi Ezeh bandwagon, but I am on the Jonas Mouton bandwagon. I think Fitzgerald will be pretty good and I'm holding out hope for Brown as a linebacker, since I think he's better closer to the LOS.
one idea that's been constantly floated is the idea of moving Ferrara back to the D-line if it became dire.
Obviously we've yet to see what happens this summer. However, do you think that the coaching staff's decision to keep Ferrara where he is should give us a little confidence about the state of the D-line, especially given that the O-Line is arguably the deepest part of the team?
I think if you're bouncing a guy back and forth between DL and OL, he's bound to be nothing more than mediocre if you switch him again. I think Ferrara's place on the OL depth chart has more to do with a) having depth at OG and b) giving Ferrara a chance to settle in that it has to do with the defensive line.
On top of that, Banks and Patterson have bulked up enough to play inside more. I don't think the depth is particularly great, but I'd rather have Greg Banks playing 3-tech than Ferrara after he's spent a year on offense.
I don't really have anything to back this up other than a gut feeling, but I think Ezeh will be the best player on our defense not named Brandon Graham. Physically he is a monster and I think he can put it all together this year.
I am going to respectfully disagree with Magnus here. I think Mike Martin is superb and will be a huge strength of our defense this year. His limited time as a freshman showed a handful of very impressive plays when he actually saw the field. As a whole I don't think the D-Line will be a strength, but I certainly don't think it's our weakest spot (linebackers as you mentioned). Agreed re:Van Bergen, however keep in mind he has been the story of spring practice on the defensive side of the ball. I'm a huge fan of Fitzgerald, who had some really stellar special teams plays last year. Hopefully if you're right about Mouton and I'm right about Fitzgerald, our linebackers won't be apocolyptically terrible.
As for Will Campbell, yes he is large, yes he is terrifying, but no he does not have the proper technique to make him a monster yet. It was very clear in the spring game that Campbell has gotten by in high school simply by outmuscling people and pushing them around (which he did somewhat successfully in the spring game). That's not going to cut it at this level. Plus, from what I hear, he's not in the greatest shape. I think you'll see good production out of Campbell in his second year. Optimally, if we were in good shape depth-wise, I'd redshirt Campbell to give him a year, but unfortunately that may not be the case.
get Campbell on the field and let him contribute. He's probably functional to good by the beginning of the season, and if he's as good as we think he'll become, he'll probably be gone at the end of the 2011 season.
I don't think there are a ton of true junior DTs who jump to the NFL.
Spring practice is not a great indicator of fall contribution. Steve Brown has been a spring practice stud for a few years. Emilien was supposedly doing very well in practices but then did okay in the spring game. Ezeh is supposedly a very good practice player.
Also, I think your definition of "superb" and mine are different.
Re: Spring Practice. True.
Re: Superb. Wait and see, my friend. We shall see who is right come the season. Hopefully it's me for our team's sake.
20 tackles and 2 sacks isn't what I call "superb." I do hope you're correct. I'm just saying, by definition "superb" is the highest of quality. If you're talking about "superb" in relation to his fellow DTs on the team, perhaps. If you're talking about "superb" in relation to the rest of the country...eh...not so much.
nicely done.
I tend to think that the front line and linebacking units should be solid enough to get us by. I personally think Ezeh will have a good year and impress some people. I will not put my name on anything that says that I predict 9 wins this year but as I look at the schedule I do think it is possible. I think the defense was so bad in part last year because of the offensive team they were practicing against. The O should be much improved this year and it should definitely take some of the pressure off of the D.
I think the defense will be better than people think. The main key to a defense is coaching, can you game plan, and can you communicate? That is a question for Robinson, the main concern is Stevie Brown, I wonder when they are going to insert a different player in his position. I think Ezeh is going to show he is a stud this year, Campbell is also going to be a wrecking crew on the d-line.
they kind of already did put someone in Stevie Brown's position when they moved Brown to another position.
Campbell is on the large side and doesnt have great technique (which can be expected from a freshman.) Yes, hes a 5 star caliber recruit, but until he can get in game shape, he'll see limited play time until he can get into a zone and figure out some of the technique stuff.
DL can be one of the toughest places for freshman to come in and contribute because in high school they got by on sheer size and quickness. At the college level, if you let OL get under your pads and their hands on you, they can drive you wherever they want and wall you off and its good night.
A couple things:
First, based on the personnel we have at that position and the type of defense we will be running, Will Campbell won't be seeing a ton of time, even if they decide he's the clear-cut #2 DT. We will be playing one DT most of the time, and that one DT will certainly be Mike Martin. Which brings me to my next point:
Mike Martin, who was not as highly rated as The Otter, was able to contribute quite well as a true freshman, in a similar capacity that will be asked of Will. Not a starter, but a solid back-up seeing solid minutes. Based on his ratings, his progress in the spring, and the fact that he was an early enrollee who has had since January to work out the usual True Frosh issues, I think he'll see a decent amount of PT and we'll be somewhere between satisfied and excited about his time on the field.
If you think Michigan is going to win 8 or 9 games this year, you must have a high degree of faith in Rodriguez.
I am with you on that, why not 10 with a bowl victory?
I believe it was in the movie "Pretty Woman" when that guy come out with the song "King of Wishful Thinking". I certainly hope that is the case but after last season I think I am settng myself up for a mindset of, improvement and anything else is gravy. I do believe in RR and what he is capable of so I enter this season with high hopes but mediocre expectations. GO BLUE and GO RR
This thread was great reading. Wonderful and informative speculation...just what it should be and I tingle with anticipation for Sept.5.
Michigan's run defense should be average in 2009, which means it's going to be around 5th or 6th in the league in total defense. UM finished 10th in total defense last year. That was partiallybecause UM's offense was worthless and weak.
In 2008 UM finished 6th in the Big Ten in rushing defense, and giving up 137 yards rushing per game. Not good. Why not? Well, the best rushing defenses last year (PSU and Iowa) both gave up less than 100/game. All depends heavily on the play of the DL and an undermanned LB corps: Mouton, Herron, Ezeh and Stevie Wonder Brown.
Michigan's passing defense was awful (9th in the Big Ten)last year despite a veteran secondary(Trent, Harrison, S. Brown, C. Stewart and D. Warren). The Wolverine secondary was thoroughly shredded, giving up 230 yrd/game passing. Only Minny and Indiana were worse.
Brown, Warren and Michael Williams are back, but the GERG is Jedi-wise to make some major moves back there (i.e. Stevie Brown and maybe Brandon Smith to LB).
In short:
DL - Graham, Martin and RVB
Not 2008's crew, but good enough by Big Ten standards, but little to no depth.
LB - Mouton, Herron, Fitzgerald, Ezeh and S. Brown.
No major change since '08 squad. Should be marginally better, but little to no depth
CB - Cissoko, Warren
These guys are good enough.
FS - Woolfolk, Michael Williams
Unknown quantity with Woolfolk. I'm worried. Williams was highly touted.
SS - Vlad Emilien, Justin Turner.
A freshman may start at safety for Michigan. These are great freshmen players, but maybe we should all run away.
Overall - UM will probably finish 6th in the Big Ten in total defense in 2009, but should have a better than average run defense.
I don't know why, but I'm not particularly concerned about the free safety spot this year. Maybe I'm just overly optimistic, but I think Woolfolk and/or Williams and/or Turner will do a good job.
and I think our standing vs. the rest of the B10 will improve dramatically, because the league's offensive talent level will pale compared to last year.
this may sound dumb, but i don't think the dline will be much worse than last yr, despite the fact that this is the position where we face the greatest loss. in my opinion all of the dlineman underperformed last yr, other than graham. based on limited evidence, i actually think van bergen will have a suprisingly impressive yr. unfortunately i think everyones perceptions of martin will come back down to earth and he will have only a mildly good sophomore yr. but i dont think there will be a significant drop off from will johnson or ttaylor.
i think the secondary will be improved, which wouldnt be too hard. the safety play was pretty horrible last yr, and really couldnt be worse. i like m. williams and i think moving woolfolk to safety will pay off. im a bit worried about emilien, as hes coming off major injury during high school, but weve all heard some pretty good things from spring ball. hopefully he wont make s.brown-like errors. i was never a fan of morgan trent, as he seemed to give recievers 10 yard cushions and allow a lot of easy receptions. i expect warren will have a bounce-back season and build upon his freshman campaign. i like cissoko but i fear he might get eaten up by bigger recievers (this is where turner might come in handy).
the lb core is most certainly improved but still a huge questionmark. mouton looked solid towards the end of the yr; hopefully he can build upon that. i really dont like ezeh and i think he is a huge liability in pass coverage. i think moving stevie brown to lb/s is brilliant, as he has shown great ability in run support and shorter pass coverage (most of his struggles were with deep routes which shouldnt be an issue as an olb.) Guesses about herron, fitzgerald, evans, brandon smith are all pretty worthless at this point.
my biggest concern is for whomever ends up starting the deathbacker/spinner position (i predict evans) b/c it will undoubtedly be a guy with 0 in-game experience.
I think I'm going to have to repeat this until I'm blue in the face:
Morgan Trent was being coached to give 10-yard cushions. I read over and over and over again that people don't like him as a player because he gave big cushions - he wouldn't do that if his coaches didn't tell him to do it!
Magnus, I hope the only reason you end up blue in the face is because you're one of those super-fans who paints his face for games...
Just to reiterate: EVERY time a player lines up out of position, a coach will let him hear about it. If he's consistently lining up anywhere other than where the coaches put him, he won't be seeing the field. If a guy is supposed to be giving a 7 yard cushion, and he's ten yards off the ball, the coaches will make the adjustment.