When PSU and Franklin Come to Ann Arbor, Here's What Happens
I'm looking forward to Penn State coming to Ann Arbor this Saturday and I was curious to get a bit of statistical context for this matchup. LINK for source data
Data for James Franklin's PSU Teams (2014 - present)
- Record vs. Michigan in Ann Arbor: 1-3
- * Franklin's only win in A2 was during 2020, which should have a huge asterisk due to Covid
- Overall Record vs. Michigan: 3-5
- Record after a Bye Week: 7-10 (.412 win %)
- Record after a Rest Advantage: 7-5 (.583 win %)
- Record when an away underdog: 2-10 (.200 win %)
Data for Jim Harbaugh's Michigan Teams (2015 - Present)
- Record vs. Penn State in Ann Arbor: 2-1 (.666 win %)
- Overall Record vs. Penn State: 4-3 (.571 win %)
- Record after a Rest Disadvantage: 12-4 (.750 win %)
- Record when Home Favorite: 43-7 (.860 win %)
While I think that the game on Saturday will likely be a close one, there's abundant data showing that Michigan has a clear upper hand based on the home field advantage. It was also very surprising to me that Franklin has a losing record when coming off a bye week.
Here's hoping that Michigan dials in in and has their best game of the season on Saturday!
October 10th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
Do you have any stats on what happens when we throw paper or scissors?
October 10th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Trick question. We only ever throw rock.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
Except when we throw Spock
October 10th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
And for change up throw lizard.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
...or, a Spock throw pillow
October 10th, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
Poor, predictable Bart. Always takes rock…..
October 10th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
Yes, but it's a small statistical sample because we only throw those two against tOSU.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:31 PM ^
I don’t - however, I can tell you that we threw rock 69 times in a game on a snowy Saturday last November and won 42 times against 27 losses.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:17 AM ^
Win the game!
October 10th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Best part of the utter domination by DL in 2006 game was it was in State College:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=262870213
October 10th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Every time this picture is posted, Anthony Morelli falls down.
[I KINDA feel bad for Penn State quarterbacks: as far as I can tell, they get to campus and nobody ever really coaches them. "Morelli or Henne" was a real question during recruiting; then they both get to NFL Draf Eval and the consensus on Morelli is "acutely undercoached" (actual quote). Hackenberg was an asshole but his opinion that his coaches were fucking him...wasn't wrong (phrasing, I know). PSU's strategy with Sean Clifford seems to be "if he dies, he dies." Penn State gets these super talented QBs on campus and then just neglects them. Imagine how Shane Morris was treated at Michigan - that's how Penn State treats everyone.]
October 10th, 2022 at 10:17 AM ^
The thing I think about the most when I see this picture is how no one is there to help him up. His own guys are in more of a hurry to get to the sideline than to give their QB a hand. Absolutely soul crushed them that game.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
To be fair to those PSU players - Morelli completed a pass on that play (arguably his best ball of that particular night). The players saw that and likely weren’t aware of their QB yet.
October 11th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
I've got as much bloodlust as any football fan, and tbh I'm still kinda shamefully proud that we knocked two QBs out of that game, but that was the first time I really remember seeing a guy (Morelli) on the sidelines and being like, "that dude is not ok."
If this had happened in 2022 instead of 2006, he would have been in the hospital before the game was over. IIRC, Morelli started the next game. We've come a long way.
Of course, maybe not. Was it 2015 when Franklin kept a clearly concussed Hackenberg in the game against Michigan and Hackenberg kept forgetting the down and distance?
October 10th, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
That game happened the same night the Tigers won the AL pennant on Maglio's walk off homer. What a night!
October 10th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
Thought this was going to be the thread lede.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:19 AM ^
As a long-time Cincinnati Bengals fan, I was always amazed that Marvin Lewis, despite having a few good seasons in the Carson Palmer-Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson era, was 5-10-1 after a bye week in his time as HC. This tendency just seems so counterintuitive.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
I think the bye week is often overrated. CFB Mythbusters found that winning percentage is actually lower than a regular game between 2000-2019 (only slightly). The two worst teams coming out of the bye during this span are "Michigan State (-24% win rate), and, somewhat un-shockingly, Penn State (-22% win rate)."
October 10th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
This study needs to be sliced by head coach. I'd be amazed if Brady Hoke's Michigan teams weren't top-5 in "bye week lowering the win%". Small sample size be damned.
Hoke always seemed to treat Bye Week as "yet another chance to install a Denard/Gardner-under-center offense, never mind that it didn't work last year nor over the offseason nor in games 1-5 nor last time we had a Bye."
October 10th, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
Makes perfect sense that Frames Janklin would have a losing record after byes. The more he thinks about something, the worse the outcome.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Frames is better when he is not coaching.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:41 AM ^
Years ago I used to think bye weeks were a way to rest up, self scout and install wrinkles. I used to circle those dates on my calendar and think "man, that team is going to get DESTROYED after we come off our bye week".
Maybe it's confirmation bias, but it seems like these days, bye weeks kill momentum, take away that "killer instinct" and result in either losses, or games that are closer than they should be.
I hate bye weeks.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
Coaches and players are creatures of habit. They like schedules for everything. Interrupting the schedules may create just enough unpleasant chaos. I first started thinking this when I was a bigger baseball fan - teams near the end of the season resting starting pitching etc or teams winning playoff games early and having to wait longer periods to play the next round often scuffle in the early games of their series. Too lazy to post the data. It's not overwhelming, but the tendencies are there.
October 11th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
I concur in the observation about routines and how changing them can be disruptive. I always thought that it was a plus for the 97 team that it had no bye weeks to screw up the momentum.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
It’s a force of habit for me to feel a pain in my stomach when I see a team has a bye week before playing us. But you’re right. The records rarely end up matching any legit concerns.
There was a 3 year period under Carr where we crapped the bed after a bye week but the other ten years were fine. Although, Michigan’s bye weeks almost always happened before playing a weak opponent. Then you have that weird scenario from 1997 where our bye week was in early September before we had even played a game. So our first game didn’t happen until Sept. 13th.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Franklin is 2-13 against top-10 ranked teams and 11-17 against top-25 teams.
Why does Harbaugh catch all the shit about his record against top teams? He's WAY better than Frames...
October 10th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
Corum puts up another 100+ and adds two TDs.
Michigan 27 knitting lions 17
October 10th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
Great scientific study.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
Franklin is a mediocre coach who needs exceptional coordinators to succeed. Unfortunately, this year he has exceptional coordinators.
October 10th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
- Record after a Rest Disadvantage: 12-4 (.750 win %)
That's very impressive for Harbaugh. Even when his opponent has an extra week to prepare, he gets it done.
October 10th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^
I read an article after the covid season of how Ferentz, Fitzgerald, and Franklin were all better coaches than Harbaugh.
Wonder why we dont see those "Best coaches ranked" articles anymore? Curious.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:20 PM ^
CORRECTION:
*Here's hoping that Michigan dials in and has their best game SO FAR season on Saturday!
our best game is coming on Nov 26!