What does the Alabama matchup actually look like?
I'd rather be playing FSU for a number of reasons, but we get Bama instead. So just how bad is that?
Offense: The highlight is obviously Jalen Milroe, who presents a different threat as a running quarterback. Common wisdom says that Michigan struggles against that type of offense, but will that be true after a month of prep? It seems to me that we have decent personnel to negate that - an elite defensive line that can play against the run even down a man, and linebackers who struggle in coverage but can fly over the field. Isn't that a good fit to put a spy on Milroe at all times?
Defense: This is where I'm less sure. FEI puts Alabama's defense at #9 which is lower than Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa, with the obvious Big Ten West caveats. Are these the typical elite Alabama pass rushers? I do worry our O-Line could struggle again, considering that issue hasn't gone away since Penn State.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:47 PM ^
I believe it will be the Crimson Tide VS. the Wolverines
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:51 PM ^
I'll take a ferocious carnivore over algae any day.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
TOXIC algae.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:48 PM ^
The key is going to be whether Michigan can box in Milroe and limit the damage he does with his legs.
Michigan is going to throw defensive looks at Milroe he's never seen before and he's going to be confused about it. He's also not going to have a ton of time to figure it out, because Alabama's O-Line isn't the O-line of old and working against Michigan's interior DL is a decided mismatch for them.
Michigan can absolutely with coverages and pressure force Milroe into game changing errors, so long as they limit the amount of times he breaks contain and makes plays with his feet. These will happen, there's no getting around it, it's just how often they happen.
If it's not that often, Michigan wins by a couple scores and everyone wonders why anyone would be concerned about Bama. If he gets loose this will be a close one and Michigan will have to execute in the final minutes/possessions to win.
Frankly, I'm not that worried about it, I think Michigan is pretty clearly positioned to beat this Bama team.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:12 AM ^
Orji will serve as a good simulation of Milroe in practice. Similar size and skill set.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
Exactly. I like Michigan’s entire roster. But, for the next four weeks - Orji being the QB of the Scout team is… a very good thing.
Go Blue!
December 4th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
Exactly, Orji is the perfect Milroe simulator. And in addition, I note that Georgia put a 1-2 spies on Milroe. I think Junior Colson, whose Achilles Heel is “covering grass”, would be a fantastic spy because he has the speed to close. So let’s rep Colson spying on Orji, guys.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:53 PM ^
I know it's been a popular opinion to feel FSU might have been an easy win for us. However, I'm not so sure that FSU would have been a much better matchup for us.
On offense, obviously FSU would be more limited without Jordan Travis. However, they've got some great wide receivers with tremendous length that would have made life difficult for our non-Will Johnson cornerbacks. They also have some solid tight ends that would challenge our linebackers. Our OSU defensive strategy of keeping two safeties backs would have been challenged by a stronger and more committed rushing attack.
On defense, FSU has pass rushers with the speed that we struggled with against PSU. They also have really good cornerbacks that could matchup with Roman and Cornelius.
Bottom line, I think any matchup at this point was going to be challenging so we'd need to bring our A game regardless of whether it was FSU or Alabama.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:57 PM ^
I was thinking the same thing about the FSU defense. It is a crying shame that ESPN spun up the narrative about Jordan Travis' injury, because that defense has been balling out. With a month of prep to get Rodemaker in sync with the wide receivers, they could easily drag you into an Iowa/Penn State type game, and take the lead with some deep shots.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:10 AM ^
This is right. If you’ve never seen any Jared Verse highlights, he’s something.
https://x.com/iam850_/status/1728812305985789972?s=61&t=1_N-RyXrtxDsSyJWJJu9ow
https://x.com/lefton172nd/status/1731179400299676114?s=61&t=1_N-RyXrtxDsSyJWJJu9ow
December 4th, 2023 at 2:09 AM ^
This was my take in FSU's defense. FSU can beat Michigan. No game in the top 10 is easy but FSU with a month of prep can play with Michigan.
The reason I think so also answers what I think will be a massive problem for UM against Bama and that's the UM pass protection. I think both of those defenses will/would cause massive fits for the UM passing attack, which will be needed as UM cannot be crazy enough to try to line up in base power and try to win like they're playing a B1G team. Not even OSU has the physical problems up front that both Bama and FSU present. UM cannot come in with a month of prep thinking "same ol' will do it" like they did in the 21 and 22 playoffs until they got down by 2+ scores. They have to spread it out and back the Bama front off the LOS...but that'll be hard given that they don't want to play like that, aren't especially good at it and you need time for targets to get open.
Both of those teams will/would give UM issues there. I absolutely think FSU could hang with UM. Call me crazy. Yes, I'd choose them of the 4 others in contention for spots but I never saw them as an easy out, just slightly easier than a Bama, UW or UT. Slightly. Not like Bama playing Cincinnati levels of easy.
On defense they have to get Milroe off platform with no more than 4 and a spy to watch for when he takes off, which he will. A lot. He's a giant HB playing QB except with an above-average passing ability. He can throw but you tip your cap if you lose because he went off for 400 yards and 5 TDs in the air. He's not usually that kind of QB.
The worry there is their OL has improved a lot, is massive, looks as roided-up as ever and can run the ball if you play soft trying to box Milroe in.
Bama is a tough pull - period. I think the overconfident ones are people that have only seen them at their worst because when focused they are only a slight step down from their peak years under Saban. QB is a great runner (a LOAD and fast) but not a great passer, WRs are better than ours but not the level of those last few years, OL of giants that are gelling, good HBs. Defense is prone to mistakes but physically are as fast and physically gifted as ever, only a slight step down from "typical" Bama. Good, athletic CBs I bet they trust to wipe the UM WRs off the field with in 1v1. Still, expect lots of zone mixed in. Front seven are deep with guys that fly around (think PSU but even more gifted). Again, the knock is the occasional mental mistakes they are somewhat prone to IF you attack the right guys. When they leave 3-4 up front they can be had in the run game but not often from power sets. Etc.
Very tough game. Put it this way: if UM gets by Bama I'd be stunned if they don't win it all. I don't think UW or UT will stress Michigan like Bama will. Bama is built to clobber squads with Michigan's style like Michigan is built to club squads like Minnesota or Iowa. Not making a direct comparison or analogy but Saban is licking his chops at the prospect of UM coming in and trying to dictate the game "our way". Trust me, he wants that. He made his bones coaching kids to line up, crack skulls and shove the opponents power game right up their own asses.
He wants the OSU, PSU or Iowa Michigan to show up. You can't give him that.
December 4th, 2023 at 4:18 AM ^
I agree with this completely. Add in Harbaugh’s terrible bowl record (which is indicative of the better prep by the opponent’s coaching staff) and we have problems.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:02 AM ^
Michigan's overall bowl record in the "modern" era (Schembechler and beyond) is pretty bad.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:13 AM ^
One of the biggest problems vs TCU was that Michigan ran new unproven plays to terrible results: Philly special and Millings FB dive come to mind.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:24 AM ^
“…UM cannot be crazy enough to try to line up in base power and try to win like they're playing a B1G team.”
You’re in for a big disappointment.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
I expect us to blitz more to contain milroe with zone coverage
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:55 PM ^
I always smile when people talk about how "Michigan" struggles against running quarterbacks. I'm pretty sure everyone struggles with running quarterbacks. That's why they're so valuable! (See: Denard Robinson). Michigan also struggles with Heisman-trophy-winning players and future Hall of Famers. :-)
It may be worth remembering, too, that — assuming the coaches take his safety wheels off — we also have a running quarterback, who will pose a serious problem for Alabama.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:00 AM ^
Orji did look pretty good against OSU :)
In all seriousness, I'd love to see JJ fully healthy and locked in on Jan 1. Time to finally add play action to the offense?
December 4th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
Denard struggled against the better defenses to be fair. So no not everyone struggles with running QBs.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:58 PM ^
Don't know why but it feels like our game will come down to our LB play... We cannot over pursue, ever.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
You know, good observation. Georgia played with 2 spies all game, can we get bybwith just Colson? God knows Colson was assembled just for this game. 1 job, don't overthink it, just make sure Milroe doesn't get loose.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
I want to believe Colson is built for this job. I would be curious to see someone breakdown how others have tried and when it has had success or utter failure.
As for the size of the mastodons Bama has on the O-Line M is fortunate to rotate and have the depth on the D line to match if they are not on the field forever.
Although M past history has not shown us well in results this team should not be seen through those glasses. The time to heal, prep and simulate with Orji is much needed.
I like M chances with JJ winning the turnover battle and M maintaining discipline with fewer penalties.
No philly-philly on the goal line, no JJ Pick 6's, Loveland and Barnhardt catch the ball and Bama being unable to exploit the CB2 so Mikey plays Nickel I like M chances.
December 5th, 2023 at 4:57 AM ^
Hausman as well. He’s got an elite burst and will straight up, light you up. What I saw of Georgia was they went away from pounding the ball and Saban did one hell of a job having his team ready and outcoached Kirby. We’ve got the team, this game comes down to Harbaugh vs Saban. Harbaughs capable for sure, but if he wants to have a pissing contest then Saban will own him.
If there was ever a time to have a Lloyd Vs Urban game, this is it.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
I agree but would add safeties to this. Overpursuit and missed tackles will be certain death. I don't know if the numbers support this (because I can't find season totals) but it seems like the tackling hasn't been up to the standard set by the previous 2 seasons. It does feel like M is trending in the right direction, though.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:04 AM ^
Milroe's intermediate throws are OK. He does s
December 4th, 2023 at 12:14 AM ^
I'll be honest, Alabama looked like an anime villain football team. They looked physically scary. I was scared. But the battle will be glorious
December 4th, 2023 at 12:21 AM ^
I actually like our linebackers against Milroe. Their strength is against the run, just not so much in pass coverage. We've faced better everything on defense, from edge rushers, to tackles, to lock down pass coverages, to wrap up the season. We won't suddenly be facing a serious challenge, we've been building up to this for the last month, now. I actually think Bama will be a (slight) step down from the teams we've already faced.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
I don't think they are any better than OSUs offense or OSU/PSUs defense. Agreed.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:33 AM ^
Our offensive line is virtually guaranteed to struggle given they've struggled in every game against an opponent with a pulse. Specifically the tackles. The guards have been great until Zinter broke his leg. I think our WRs will struggle to separate with what little time they'll have to get open. JJs decision making under pressure, not unlike most QBs, deteriorates significantly. Corum will probably still get his 20 carries for 70 yards. I think our defense can handle Bama just fine. Might have trouble with their athletes and OL which has 3 guys at 6'5" and over 350 lbs. That might negate some of our DL strength, but overall I think we can hold Bama to under 30 points. The question is if we can score around 30 which is what I think it will take.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
Bama will struggle to get 20+ points
December 4th, 2023 at 12:39 AM ^
I think Michigan is going to have to have an extra lineman on the field often going up against this bama D. TE is going to have to be the biggest part of the passing attack because I don't see our wrs getting open a lot.
December 5th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
We have every bit the speed at WR as any team Bama has faced. The worry is their line of 5 stars going up against our O line that had mountains of trouble against Iowa. We can spin Dr all we want. Sherrone has his work cut out for himself the next month coaching these guys up. I was in the end zone Saturday night as the Oline was warming up. We’ve got a ton of lineman to choose from. Depth isn’t an issue, but finding a winning formula New Year’s Eve will be. We were in it against Bama back in 2019 till we collapsed. Lack of talent was way less than today.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:51 AM ^
Common wisdom says that Michigan struggles against that type of offense, but will that be true after a month of prep?
Yes it will be true. We don't have the speedy linebackers like we have in the past. I'm thinking there will be chunk plays if/when he needs to scramble out of the pocket.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:59 AM ^
We won't lose because of our lack linebacker speed. Barrett and Colson are pretty athletic. We'll lose because Barnhart, Trente, and Henderson are B- players going up against 5 star twitchy types instead of the usual bricks for feet but strong and cornfed 3star been baking in the oven for 4 years guys in the bigTen. You saw what happened when they went up against 1 or 2 of those guys at PSU and OSU. Bama has many more raw, but crazy athletes. They might make more mistakes though. That's our opportunity l. We have a lot of experience.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:55 AM ^
Dude. With all due respect, we’re ranked #1. Any and all hand-wringing about who we match up with is bad form.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:08 AM ^
If the SEC had been left out, the media would discount the playoff winner.
I'm glad Alabama is in the playoff to give Michigan the chance to show that it is unquestionably the best team.
(I think FSU is being overly discounted by the media, but it is what it is.)
December 4th, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
On the one hand, yes. We're dodging a potential ESECPN asterisk, "Won a national title with no SEC opponent in the field" which LOL, but on the other hand, eh OK whatever. I totally see your point and agree on the factual premise.
However, I am a little disappointed in the outcome, not because I'm worried about facing Bama (they're basically on par with FSU by all meaningful accounts) but because it would be something the SEC slappies could die mad about and we could laugh at them for caring. Just win baby.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
To be clear, the main reason I'd rather play FSU is that FSU simply deserves to be there. It's the playoff, all 4 teams are going to be tough. I'm just curious what Bama actually looks like since I've seen a lot more of Washington and Texas this season.
December 4th, 2023 at 1:46 AM ^
We need to use OSU's defensive strategy against us. Crowd the box, make him beat us iwth his arm. We should use a 5 man line, creep the LBs up and leave one safety back.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:17 AM ^
Defensively it will be the opposite of the OSU gameplan. Instead of putting out a light box, we should stack the box and force Milroe to beat us with his arm. On offense, we need to avoid the mistakes of the previous two semifinal games and try to do actual speed in space instead of just trying to manball Alabama.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:19 AM ^
I just don’t have any confidence this will happen. I did really want the semi final to be a team like Washington, who we can beat with our “base” offense, because I haven’t seen a whole lot from our staff that says they will use a game plan that meaningfully deviates from our bread and butter. This is the kind of matchup where you have to use some gimmicks to create yards. (Lloyd’s WR screens would be delightful here). If Michigan uses first and second down to run into the line this game could get ugly.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:37 AM ^
“haven’t seen a whole lot from our staff that says they will use a game plan that meaningfully deviates from our bread and butter.”
Changing things up for a bowl game is not the Michigan way. More specifically, It wasn’t the Schembechler Way, and Schembechler’s DNA is still deeply embedded in the program via Harbaugh, as it was with Moeller, Carr, and even Hoke. What Alabama sees on Michigan game film from the season will be what they see on the field in Pasadena.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
That’s an L then. Michigan’s current offensive game plan is a wet dream for Alabama’s defense.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Unfortunately this.
Other teams scheme against tendencies and throw new things out after a month to work on it which catch opponents off guard who have seen "XYZ" on film all year and then suddenly "ABC" is offered.
Michigan has since Bo apparently just kept working on what they are good at during bowl practices, and assume it will be enough.
December 4th, 2023 at 2:26 AM ^
What does the Alabama matchup actually look like?
A shotgun wedding 'cause you put a baby in her.
December 4th, 2023 at 6:31 AM ^
This is my concern, dude: Alabama has a long history of playing well with 3 weeks prep time. Michigan is 0-2 in the same space.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:12 AM ^
Bama struggled earlier this season because their OL and Milroe struggled right out of the gate which is why they benched Milroe and started Buchner. Since Milroe came back, he has been a lot better and the OL play has gotten better at the same time.
Bama defense has two lockdown corners with very good pass rush. Dallas Turner has been creeping up on the board because he had a breakout year this season as a pass rusher. He'll give OT problems. Plus Saban is a brilliant defensive coach so giving him 3-4 weeks of prep, he'll download the Michigan offensive scheme and make their life a living hell. This is JJ's greatest challenge because Bama is similar to Iowa but has better athletes/players. Saban will confuse JJ with coverages with Rip/Liz, Banjo, Cut, etc.
This isn't Bama of old, but they're more than good enough to beat Michigan. They knocked out 2-time defending champion and snapped their 30 games winning streak.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:22 AM ^
Fact: UM O line will struggle, Bama O line will also struggle
December 4th, 2023 at 8:05 AM ^
Offensively we need superior OL play and healthy JJ running … defensively we need our LB sped to neutralize Milroe … pretty simple lol , but we can’t give up multiple long runs by Milroe … like with Marvin he will get his yards but we can’t let him run wild
December 4th, 2023 at 8:25 AM ^
When has JJ really ran this year though? At this point that really isn’t even a part of Michigan’s offense.
This season has been a tale of two halves. The first half of the season Michigan was playing a style of football that I think can’t beat Bama. McCarthy was slinging the ball all over and the offense looked pretty close to unstoppable.
I’m not entirely sure what has happened since then but it won’t do. I know they beat some good teams but every single yard gained has looked like a monumental task.
Going into this season I was looking at Wilson, CJ, and Edwards, and Loveland and thinking this team is going to be impossible to defend. That was essentially true through the first half of the Purdue game and then everything completely changed. Against Iowa, JJ could not even escape the pocket (which is like his signature) and did not even really look to try. Whether that is injury related or not, I’m not sure.
Michigan has two choices here. They can play their stock offense of the last five weeks and lose respectably or they can play modern offensive football and take some chances and try to win the game.