What are our expectations of Hoke 3 or 4 years down the road?

Submitted by mejunglechop on

 

At the beginning of the Rodriguez era Brian envisioned symmetry in the renovation of the Big House and the rebuilding of the Michigan football program with the anticipated arrival date of 2010. He was convinced Rodriguez would get at least 4 years to see through his vision since it was a fairly radical departure from Michigan’s traditional offensive identity. While Rodriguez was able to recreate Michigan’s offensive identity in the original timeframe because of defensive failings Rodriguez only lasted three years.

So, now it’s 2011 and Hoke is the new Man and it strikes me as a good time to mark down expectations. Where do we have to be in 2013 and 2014 for you to be satisfied with the trajectory of the program?

Personally by the end of 2013 I think it's fair to expect at least one ten win season and a long term outlook at least on par with any big ten team. Thoughts?

mad magician

August 30th, 2011 at 4:56 AM ^

The expectation is to win the Big Ten Championship.

If we fail, if we don't do that, then we need to get it right.

We need to reload. We need to work harder. We need to compete harder. We need to get after it with a sense of urgency. 

bluebyyou

August 30th, 2011 at 6:20 AM ^

I think it will be 2014 or 2015 to really get the defense to the point Hoke and Mattison would like it to be and to get a new offense in place.  While our 2012 recruiting class looks very good, very few of these kids will be ready for anything before 2014 and really 2015, when they are juniors, to have the size and experience levels to compete against the best teams around.  As long as Denard stays healthy and really figures out how to be a solid passing QB, we buy ourselves some time for the D to catch up, although there will be at least a one year hiatus.  Devin should be excellent, but only time will tell just how good he turns out to be.

My expectation is to win 10 games or more a season by 2015.

team126

August 30th, 2011 at 6:38 AM ^

  • Rank consistently in top 25 YOY
  • Contend for B1G championship every year - NC goes with that with less frequency
  • Play post season bowl every year; Play BCS bowl every other year
  • Beat little brother/Ohio/ND regularly (by 2014: flip the Ws but long term more Ws than Ls)
  • No big scandals whatsoever; APY improves YOY

Hoke will then be able to retire from Ann Arber after he is done coaching and walk back to San Diego.

2011~2013: We won't see much a trend. As long as it is not a disaster as we saw in past few years, AD and everybody probably will understand. Personally I like Hoke's toughness and physicality approach. I don't think anything Not-tough and Not-physical should belong to a winning team.

Vasav

August 30th, 2011 at 6:44 AM ^

2012: Ten win season, flirting with the top ten

2013-15: B1G Title and Top Ten Finish >= 1, Top 20 finish in every one of those seasons

While 2011 is hazy, I do honestly expect big things next year - we should be fully into our offensive groove, knowing what mix of spread, multi-back, and west-coast offense works best for Denard and Borges. And yes we lose Molk but we'll still have a very good O-line (Lewan-Barnum-Khoury-Omameh-Schofield) and a great group of backs (we'll lose Hemingway, Odoms and Shaw) - lead by a senior Denard. Defense should be over the GERG hump and start to be B1G respectable. It's a tough schedule, but we should be a tough team.

Regardless of how 2011&12 shake out, I'm willing to cut some slack in 2013 because of last year's recruiting, and growing pains with a younger O-Line. Defense should start to be the "Michigan Defense" that we've all missed since 2006.

But after that, it's go time. As Hoke has said - this is Michigan. The most important thing a coach can do is keep Bo's promise to his seniors - "Those who stay..." and since his first class will be seniors in 2015, it's reasonable to judge him after 2014 to gauge whether or not that promise can reasonably be kept (or already has been kept).

Tater

August 30th, 2011 at 7:44 AM ^

In past years, two or three teams could be Big Ten Champions.  Now, because of the title game, as they used to say in The HIghlander, "there can be only one."  Also, it is now more difficult with the addition of Nebraska and the apparent ability of Wiscy to sustain high quality for more than a year at a time.  

Before the new "Brand" took over as AD, the stated goals of the program were to win Big Ten Championships on a regular basis (regular has to be geared back now) and compete for the National Championship every few years.  That is what we should expect.  

No matter what we think of Hoke, he is still an unknown quantity.  We are expecting a career 47-50 coach to become at least a career .750 coach at Michigan.  So far, his main strengths are that Michigan fans really like him and he is able to recruit Michigan and Ohio very well.  He also seems to be a top-notch motivator.  

Hoke walked into a situation where the cupboard is full on offense, and not as bad as it originally looked on defense.  Hoke has inherited a roster of talented upperclassmen who are keeping most of the freshmen on the bench.  

Instead of Threet and Sheridan, Hoke has inherited the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year at QB, and a very talented backup.  The two-deep has a majority of upperclassmen for the first time since 2007, and they have spent their careers in a modern training program instead of the old, outdated one.  

That means he doesn't have anything to rebuild.  He is taking over a team that has the talent to win at least nine games.  I expect Hoke to have won at least one BT Championship by 2014.  Since he is not an "outsider," he will get the full benefit of everything Michigan has to offer, and he will have the opportunity to build the program the way he wants to without having the carpet yanked from under his feet halfway through the job.  

Ultimately, I expect him to play 21st century football while fooling the less-intelligent people in the fanbase into thinking he is a throwback coach.  He was fortunate to get Greg Mattison, who combines the old inbred DNA with valuable knowledge (read: how to be aggressive) gleaned from his other stops.  He has brought Al Borges in, and Borges had nothing to do with the old, stale offense.  

For Hoke to succeed, he will have to bring just what it appears he is now: energy, leadership, an aggressive defense that can defend both the power attack and the spread, and a modern offense with unpredictable playcalling.  

Delegate, delegate, delegate.

 

Aequitas

August 30th, 2011 at 1:34 PM ^

with any of that Tater.

To me, the big unknown is Borges.  Overall, we're deeper and more talented at most positions than we've been for the past three years, so I don't expect a major stumble this year.  However, I have doubts that Borges is an equal, let alone upgrade, to what was here before him.  I think we'll win 7 or 8 this year and then settle in to the familiar 9 +/- 1 win average by 2014.  2012 is going to be brutal.

I don't see any advantages on this staff or it's schemes, based on past history in other programs, over that found at Nebraska, Ohio, Wiscy, or MSU, unless it's maybe recruiting.  If Hoke can sustain or improve the quality of the players being brought in, and if Ohio actually sees any real repercussions for the crap that's been going on down there, I'd revise my expectations up a game a year.

I hope this staff gets a real chance to build the team they envision, and I support whoever our coach is.

Intangibly, my expectation is that we must be competitive in every game until the final snap.

M-Wolverine

August 30th, 2011 at 2:20 PM ^

That 8-10 wins a year, on AVERAGE is seen as a let down, even though that means to average that some years you'll have to win 11 or 12, and others, yes 7 or (GULP) 6. Yet our previous staff would have had to win 3 straight National Champions to get to that average, with half a staff considered, kindly, not so good, had us at at "schematic advantage". Which didn't seem to be causing fear in any of the teams you mentioned. I get it, everyone wants that tear of double digit win seasons and multiple titles that other teams have...almost universally by cheating. Because there hasn't been a clean streak of dominance in a loonnng time.

BigBlue02

August 30th, 2011 at 3:55 PM ^

Ha! Yes, the previous staff would have had to win 3 straight national titles to average8-10 wins. That is what happens when you take a 6 year average and one of those years you have 3 wins (unless, of course, you can win 17 games one year). That is like saying he would have to average 12 wins per year in years 2 and 3 at west Virginia just to get to a 9 win average.

IPFW_Wolverines

August 30th, 2011 at 8:11 AM ^

Hoke is going to be the greatest coach in the history of Michigan football. Every recruiting class will be number 1. Michigan will never lose a game under Hoke. The NCAA will rename everything after him. It will no longer be called the Heisman, it will be the Hoke. In fact they should just do it now. The biggest problem will be other teams keeping interest knowing that Michigan will win the National Championship every year under Hoke. Circling the Big House will be statues immortalizing this god of football. Those who question him will lose everything they own and forever be branded Ohio fans. 

 

and he hasn't even won a game yet as head coach at Michigan...

 

 

white_pony_rocks

August 30th, 2011 at 8:14 AM ^

we had some pretty good recruits come in last year and several amazing recruits coming next year so we are set for potential.  if the coaches can coach as well as they are reputed to then i think big 10 chapionship by 2014 is easily attainable

Baldbill

August 30th, 2011 at 8:17 AM ^

To win. I expect us to be competeing for BigTen championships every year. I am not saying we will win it every year, but I expect that we should be in the mix come down to the last couple of games of the year.

micheal honcho

August 30th, 2011 at 8:31 AM ^

Get back to where we were under Lloyd Carr. Then move onward and upward from there.

As for what Hoke "inherits" I'll just say that if asked which team you could start camp with between this years dilithium and little else, or 2008's Threet/Sheridan(Mallet?) and the rest of that squad. I think we all know who Hoke, Mattision & co. would choose.

To continue asserting that Rod handed off a diamond and inherited a turd is just intellectually dishonest and downright misleading.

I just cant wait till our old coach finds himself a new HC position(if he does) somewhere(other than the big least) so we can put to rest this myth that he was the 2nd coming and we were on a trajectory for the stars. If some need to believe that fairy tale in order to rise in the morning, so be it. I just beg that you stop acting as if it was a foregone conclusion and Hoke has been handed the keys to a finely tuned machine.

Hoke has been handed the keys to Denard and not much else. Martin will get drafted but wont equal Brandon Graham, Molk & Schilling probably see sunday time as well but wont equal Boren at that level.

Hoke has a bigger job trying to take a Defense from dead ass suck to B1G championship caliber than Rod had trying to take an offense from middling to FEI excellence.

Just as some like to throw "the horror" up as definitive evidence of Carrs incompetence, I'll easily say the Miss St. or Wisc is equally compelling evidence of RR's abject failure. Although Carr & co at least ended that season beating Tebow. RR's greatest season ending moment was getting to fire him TWICE!

Rumsey87

August 30th, 2011 at 9:33 AM ^

Sadly, I think you're probably right.  Appalachian State.  Oregon.  1-5 in his final 6 against Ohio State.

That's why some of us were excited to reach for the stars with Rodriguez.  He wasn't Lloyd.  But now we have Lloyd back and I'm sure we'll regularly be 10-3 or 9-4 or 8-5.  Decent.  But never great.*  It feels like many Michigan fans will be satisified with that.

* The 97 team was great.  And it was primarily juniors and seniors recruited by Moeller. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gte896u

August 30th, 2011 at 11:01 AM ^

another way is that Michigan fired a coach that played in a New Years Day bowl game with 18 underclassmen starters.  

 

id say that Hoke (just like any new coach would) has to improve from that to justify the coaching change

 

msoccer10

August 30th, 2011 at 11:00 AM ^

But it is reasonable to assume that the first three years of horrible defense had a lot to do with poor recruiting by Carr and attrition which led to a thin, young, undertalented squad. And its also reasonable to think that with the improved experience and depth we have this year that the defense would have improved significantly regardless of the coach. The question will always be how much is due to Mattison and how much is due to returning 8 starters (which would have been 9 if Vinopal hadn't transferred).

My point isn't to bash Carr, say Rodriguez was great or dispute Mattison's genious. Just to say that this team will be good or bad mostly because of what Rodriguez put together over the last three years just like Rodriguez's first year is mostly on Carr and Carr's championship owes a lot to Moeller.

And I think its very possible that Hoke, Mattison and Borges will be better than Rodriguez would have been in the long run. But we'll never know. I do think this offense will take a step back. Its impossible not to. We were pretty damn good last year and would have added Demetrius Hart and Kris Frost, two 5 stars, on offense. (Unfortunately, they both got hurt, but in a parallel universe where Rodriguez is still here, who knows). Its hard to imagine a better offensive mind than  Rodriguez using these players. Ultimately, you are right that he lost his job because of defense. I hope we don't question the Hoke hire because of the offense in three years.

M-Wolverine

August 30th, 2011 at 2:28 PM ^

To say we were getting Hart and Frost.  Hart, who waviered back and forth, and decommitted way before anyone was fired, and Frost (most likely a LB, FWIW) who seemed like his parents wanted him to go to Michigan, but was willing to commit to Auburn when they didn't even have a scholarship for him instead of Michigan.  Recruiting started going south when we started getting killed at the end of the season. Yes, partly because it put job security in doubt, but also because it didnt' make it look like a program on the rise anymore.  There was a guy or two who were solidly committed and changed their mind after the hire.  But most of them jumped ship before the bowl game, and before Rich was even fired.  If Rich was retained they may have come, but there still would have been a lot of doubt unless we had reversed the score of that bowl game, to paint a prettier future.

micheal honcho

August 30th, 2011 at 9:54 AM ^

Lets not forget:

Zero NCAA violations or even suspicion of such

Dominating the SEC in head to head games

Dominating OSU before the cheatervest took over

Recruiting & nurturing the 1st ever defensive heisman winner

Having a defense that will keep you in every game

No crying

No Grobin hand holding embarrassments

Class

Class

and more Class

Section 1

August 30th, 2011 at 2:05 PM ^

This thread began with this:

At the beginning of the Rodriguez era Brian envisioned symmetry in the renovation of the Big House and the rebuilding of the Michigan football program with the anticipated arrival date of 2010. He was convinced Rodriguez would get at least 4 years to see through his vision since it was a fairly radical departure from Michigan’s traditional offensive identity. While Rodriguez was able to recreate Michigan’s offensive identity in the original timeframe because of defensive failings Rodriguez only lasted three years.

Really?  Was it "because of defensive failings"?  Or because of a comprehensively poisonous atmosphere headlined by "NCAA violations... crying... Grobin [sic]..."

On his record alone, and based only on the progress of the program, I don't think Rich Rodriguez gets fired after the Gator Bowl.  I think it is the record, and the defense, and all of the other stuff, all together.

 

Section 1

August 30th, 2011 at 6:00 PM ^

The defense was painfully bad.  I personally think that Greg Robinson was quite rightly fired, a day or so before any decision was made on Rodriguez himself.

But let's not argue past one another.  You are saying that Rodriguez could have survived the sanctions debacle, if he had been winning a lot more.  That may be true; that's not my hypothetical. 

What I say is that Rodriguez would have been retained, despite the two losing season records and the bowl loss, if those had been the only negatives.  If there had only been three seasons progressing from 3-9 to 5-7 to 7-6, without any of the other stuff.

And my rage, such as it is, was that so much of the negativity -- the NCAA investigation, the sanctions, the media calls for Rodriguez's firing, the general poisonous atmosphere -- led also to some of the on-field problems like recruiting diffculties, assistant coach hires, et cetera, because few people had any confidence about how long Rodriguez would be around.  Because of the aforementioned poisonous atmosphere. 

mejunglechop

August 30th, 2011 at 6:32 PM ^

I totally disagree that Rodriguez would have been retained in those circumstances and I'm  shocked that you think he would. Going 3-9, 5-7 and 7-6 at the winningest program in the country invites tremendous negativity. That's especially so when in the last year each loss was uncompetitive. At Michigan, the debacles we saw last year against Penn State, Ohio State and Mississippi State just don't hack it, not in year 3 and to expect the fan base to remain unified in support in those circumstances is bat shit crazy.

gte896u

August 30th, 2011 at 9:58 AM ^

Every offensive position group is better in 2011 than it was in 2008, and its not even close.

Denard, Devin vs Threetsheridamnit?  cmon

True FR were the 2nd and 3rd leading rushers in 2008.  The top 4 backs this year all have at least 1 year of experience.

The starting tight end is the same dude, only now he is a senior.

The leading WR from 2008 was a true freshman, who is now behind 4 other players on the depth chart.  No receiver from 2008 had more than 2 TD's on the season.

The O-line has 3 legit All Big-10 candidates in Omameh, Lewan, and Molk.  The last two could compete for AA honors.  Would you rather have Moosman, McAvoy, Ferrara, and Ortmann?

On defense, i would say the talent is comparable at worst.

Martin had more TFL as a true FR than either Taylor or Johnson. and is an All-American candidate.  Van Bergen is a SR on the level of either of those guys from 2008, and i think Jamison's statline of 50 tkl, 10.5 TFL, and 5.5 sacks is a totally reasonable expectation for Roh.  They dont have anyone on BG's level but teams rarely do.

The leading tackler in 2008 was the senior that Demens supplanted as a sophomore.  SO Mouton vs SO Cam is a wash, and John Thompson was a situational player thrust into full time duty.

The safety talent here in 2011 is as talented, but young, as any i can remember in a while. Carvin, Tom Gordon, Furman, Marvin, and Kovacs is an easy choice over Steve Brown (as a safety), Mike Williams, Brandon Harrison (who i actually liked), Charles Stewart, and Artis Chambers.

Only the starting corners from 2008 have a distinct advantage over their 2011 counterparts.