What are the odds Franz declares after this season?
First of all, Franz SHOULDN'T declare. I think with another year and more time in the weight room, he could push himself into Round 1 consideration.
That said, he's been playing well the second half of the season. He's got length, a good shot, and can get to the rim. I think he's got Round 2 potential already. And for many nowadays, that's all they need to hear to make the leap.
I'm going to put the over/under right now at 20% that he enters the draft.
Commence neg bang.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^
Never not appropriate.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
UNCO
March 12th, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^
He shouldn't declare, but that hasn't stopped others from doing so. And, predictably, their careers have not gone well.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:55 AM ^
"And, predictably, their careers have not gone well."
Is that true though? Seems to me some have gone well some haven't but more importantly there is no reason to believe they would have gone better if they stayed in school.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:59 AM ^
A much more succinct and direct version of what I was trying to say below
March 12th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
Nor is there reason to not believe. it's all conjecture. However, when you look at DJ stuck on the bench in Milwaukee, there's plenty of reason to think that given the trajectory he was on late in his time here, IF (big if) he kept that up one more year he *probably* would have been not only a higher pick the next year, but way more experienced/prepared to make a mark as a pro.
It isn't so much about the delta of his actual draft slot vs his theoretical better draft slot a year later. It's moreso about the probability of how he has positioned himself for the second contract.
For the record, I generally do agree with the people who laugh at the reasoning of "you get better at basketball by staying in school (rather than concentrating only on basketball with the best coaches, etc)." The counter to that is that when you spend that extra year being THE MAN at the high D-1, you could (could) very well me more ready when your time does come in the League.
It's all open for debate. No good tried-and-true rule. But Darius Morris and DJ and others sure did leave a lot on the table as players (irrespective of the first contract).
March 12th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
You are correct, there is no evidence the other way either. It is my firm belief that guys are either good enough to make it in the league or they are not. I fail to see how spending an extra year in college, where you can spend less time working on your game and receiving instruction, is going to change that.
Edit to add: I would say Darius and DJ aren't leaving anything on the table because they aren't actually good enough to cut it in the league.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:58 AM ^
Yes, you can certainly say that -- but it's all hypothetical and subjective. Inherently you would have to prove not only that their careers have been disappointing but also (and more importantly) that their careers would have gone "better" if they hadn't declared when they did.
The "poster-boy" for this hypothetical to me is D.J. Wilson. I would say (and guessing you would too) that his NBA career thus far has been underwhelming / a disappointment. However, he also has made over $12M in guaranteed money over the first 4 years of his career. If he had stayed at UM another year would he be a better NBA player -- arguably? Would he have made more money -- arguably, but I would lean towards no? Poole (and Iggy to a lesser extent) are in a similar situation where they ended up getting drafted high enough to justify their decisions. Saying their careers would have turned out "better" by staying at UM is pure conjecture.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Iggy? Where was he drafted?
That's who I was thinking of as well. I don't know if any 1st round draft pick can be the example because they get guaranteed money.
Iggy went in the 2nd round, and is in the G-League.
Even though Iggy was 2nd round -- 2 of his 3 years are guaranteed.
He is getting paid $2.4M guaranteed over this year and the next playing for the Knicks (be it NY or Westchester)
https://nypost.com/2019/07/08/inside-the-knicks-ignas-brazdeikis-contract-numbers/
He was drafted 47th by the Knicks (who traded up to get him) --- he has spent most of the year playing for their G-League team, the Westchester Knicks
March 12th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
About the same odds as HUEL fixing this site.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:02 PM ^
Which means no matter how often he puts the ball through the hoop, he'll never get any points for it.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
So you're saying there's no chance...
March 12th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
Wait, a thread about something other than Corona? What is this phenomenon?
March 12th, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
But it is, because they're going to cancel the rest of the season and no one is going to know what the hell is going to happen with recruiting and contracts and drafts
March 12th, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
If his 3 ball was going down more, I think he'd be gone. I'm guessing he'll be back to hopefully improve his 3 percentage then take off after next season.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:49 AM ^
Geez I would not bet on people jumping to a draft for a league that is not actually playing any games.
Better to bet on the chances that the draft is delayed, morphed, cancelled in some way.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^
It wouldn't surprise me at all if he tests the waters. But I'd hope Mo would advise him to follow the course he took by coming back for an extra year of seasoning.
Does anyone else but me seem to think Franz's form on his shot is a little off? I can't quite pinpoint it, but something seems odd, like he pushes the ball more than shoots it?
March 12th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
You're right in your observation. He starts low, but when he rises he doesn't rise up to in front of his face and then flick the wrist. If you look he is rising up on an angle. So instead of rising and then shooting he kind of is doing it all in one motion. Which is why when he is off he is way off.
March 12th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
if the ncaa tourney is cancelled, 0%
March 12th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Now I'd put it at 0%
March 12th, 2020 at 11:59 AM ^
Declare for a league that just suspended play indefinitely?
Nah...
March 12th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
No chance. He likely needs 2 more years realistically. Next year to get his shooting stroke down, then the year after to hammer home some more nuanced aspects of the game. That doesn’t mean he wouldn’t leave after next year though, but definitely not this year.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
None.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^
Personally, I'd give us one chance in three.
More tea anyone?
March 12th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
Bullshit speculation on what Franz needs to do or should do aside: The guy was a pro and came to Michigan for a different experience.
Based on that I don’t see him leaving after 8 months or whatever on campus. FWIW Mo could have gone and gained $$ by staying so that can’t hurt.
March 12th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
Declares what?
I'd go a little bit higher, about 35%. My gut feeling is he returns for his sophomore year.
The odds are good but the goods are odd.