Week 5 Team Efficiencies
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
Nebraska has a bad offense and good defense? Hmm.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
That's just for one game. The shadow logos are the season averages.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
So for the season, we have one of the best combos of good offense - good defense. For one game, on the road in Kinnick, we had a decent offense and a slightly subpar defense. I’m good with that, given the youth at some of the key spots on D.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
Linebacker is a position of concern.
We need NHG back soon.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
Agreed! I thought Rolder's play was encouraging but the UFR will tell us more.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:14 PM ^
Colson was picked on all day, and usually to good effect for Iowa.
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
Mmmmm...B1G West....
October 2nd, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
A chart would be better
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
I could've told ya that...our defense was not great yesterday. Iowa's offense is shit and we had some rough stretches.
3rd and 20+ and you don't blitz on an obvious passing down where they can't play action? Yikes.
Then that last drive, I get you don't want to give up a big play, but FFS, you let Iowa walk down the field in under a minute.
Pass rush is hard against teams that max protect or max protect and then leak a TE out late. So it's not the sacks.
It's the stretch plays that we couldn't get to. It's Junior Colson playing zone and guarding AIR...literally moving in the opposite direction as the receiver in his zone.
And it's when you finally do you obvious passing situations (which were rare)...you don't dial up those exotic blitz packages that you couldn't use at any other point during the game (because they'd just check down over your blitz and collect the YAC).
Anyway, great win. There were bright spots on D and on the season, we're in the right quad.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
On the 3rd and 22 play, Sainristil fell down in coverage. If he stays on his feet, they probably don’t convert.
The last drive was garbage time and not worth stressing out about. We didn’t want them to get a quick score. Scoring with 8 seconds left may have preserved their Dignity (TM) but did nothing else.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:31 AM ^
I haven't seen a replay showing where Sainristil fell, but I'm sure it happened - that guy was too wide open for someone NOT to have fallen somewhere. I'd just like to see it! Nonetheless, Minter employed the 'Prevent a Win' defense the NFL loves (for some reason I don't understand) on the last couple of Iowa series'. Giving up soft coverage underneath to avoid a quick hit bomb that doesn't eat clock is the most frustrating way to lose a game!
We've seen the Prevent a Win in action many times - the Lions losing to Baltimore last season, the Bengals losing to Joe Montana in SB 23, etc - too many to list). We didn't 'almost' see that yesterday - the win was secured with 20 pointsearly in the 3rd, but it was a frustrating as hell way to finish the game!
Why do teams go away from what they were doing to get them up in the first place? I just don't get it...
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
Because teams are more likely to try double moves and deep passes when they're down with little time left than they are when trying to stay on schedule.
Especially with how bad Iowa's offense is: make them march down the field slowly
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:31 PM ^
Prevent defenses may be annoying to watch, but the vast majority of the time they succeed in their objective - to preserve the win. When you're up two or more scores in the final minutes, the only way you can lose is if your opponent can get that many possessions. You may give up one score, but it will take too long for your opponent to get another chance.
Maryland scored a TD against us, but it took so long that they only had 46 seconds left and no timeouts, so they didn't get another possession.
Iowa scored a TD, but it took so long that they had 8 seconds left and no timeouts.
From a coach's perspective, these are successes.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
Sainristil fell on the catch. He could have pushed the guy out and forced a 4th and short but he got beat for the completion before he fell.
But that is just one play, it happens. The more concerning thing is the consistent movement Iowa was getting on offense. It wasn’t turning into points because Petras and the offense is terrible but guys were consistently open against the zone and the pass rush was mostly non-existent. It’s a mediocre defense right now.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
The only thing that really matters as of right now is that Michigan is 5-0 and went into Kinnick, shut down Iowa for most of the day, and left with a win in a stadium that is prone to knocking out top ranked teams.
Next stop is Indiana where, hopefully, Michigan will continue to hone their attack on their way to being undefeated going into The Game where Michigan will put together a clinic on how to expose and destroy the Buckeyes on their own field sans snow.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
Some headscratchers here.
Playing the top defensive team in the country caused our offensive numbers to drop that much?
PSU is really that bad offensively?
And is that UConn with an elite defense?
(Edit: oh, it’s just for this week. Got it.)
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
UM's offensive numbers kinda make sense, though, as a combination of the #1 defense in the nation and a conservative game plan that did not look for big plays. Iowa relies on turnovers - they're defense is built for them. And it's a defense that's been in place for generations, so they're really good at it. Harbaugh's game plan was perfect for that defense - and for his offense, led by a rookie QB. Keep it safely away from the throws that zone defenses lull you into, and rely on your base running package.
And that offense was run to perfection for most of the day. The one time it looked dicey was the 'run, run, pass, punt' sequence we all saw coming near Iowa's EZ late in the game.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
Right, we weren't going for explosion; we were going for low variance because Iowa was only ever going to win if we threw picks. We were happy to get our 5-yard runs on first down if it meant that we were moving the chains and avoiding turnovers.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
This graphic is very useless. Thanks though.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
The graphic is useful, poorly formatted imo.
Season averages are much more important than single games, and therefore should have been put in bold, with the last game being put in ghost font.
Good chart, poor presentation imo.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Completely agree here. The weather affected some games such as PSU-NW. Season ratings mean more than one game.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
For the last game:
Most consistent team: Illinois!! The two logos are close
Least consistent team: PSU? The two logos are far apart
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
Guessing these are not opponent-adjusted. The two good/good outliers played Wagner and Rutgers.
October 2nd, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
New SP+ ($) is out:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/34709891/college-football-sp+-rankings-week-5
Michigan is 4th. Ratings imply that on a neutral field, Michigan should be
+6 vs Alabama
+5 vs OSU
+3 vs Georgia
-8 vs Penn St
-15 vs MSU
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
Clemson at 18 is interesting. I don't quite understand how they became so firmly lodged in the sports media subconscious--a semiotic void where orange and purple goes?
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:06 PM ^
Michigan would be Clemson the last 7 years if we played in a Bigten with no Ohio State and ridiculous luck.
Clemson plays shit teams with no defense (Wake Duke UNC) or wonky offenses (Miami FSU NCstate). Most of those teams are no better than a Northwestern or Purdue on an up year.
Clemsons run of 50/50 games turning up in their favor 85% of the time will come to an end eventually. Ive been saying it for 5 years so it has to happen soon right?
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Clemson with Watson and Lawrence is what Michigan would have been with an elite QB. Dabo owes absolutely everything to those two guys -- not that that finger-wagging douche would ever admit it
October 2nd, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
Don’t forget not having to play larger corn-fed opponents. Clemson gets whisked into the playoffs injury free while B1G players have beat themselves to hell.
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
Clemson at 18 is a little surprising but in this system ratings are way more important than rankings. Not a lot of separation after the top 5, and they are just two points out of the top 10. Should be a wild season
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^
lol, Texas and Oklahoma
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
So UM is about an 8 point dog to OSU according to SP+. Last year, I believe the SP+ spread in The Game was similar.
Most OSU fans believe it will be a double digit win this year, just like they thought last year. I like how UM sits in terms of expectations.
I think that feeling of superiority may also creep into the Buckeye program, which only helps UM.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
Thought it was neat to see who was triggered first in the Day-Schiano lovefest yesterday. You want to know if your opponent can keep their composure when things turn sideways. Given that Schiano was the aggrieved party, I thought he was also the adult in the room. Let's get under Day's skin early and often going forward!
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
I could maybe see Texas's ranking since they had two close losses and one was to Bama . . . but Oklahoma at #6? After yesterday?
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
Iowa did most of their damage trying to come back, and Michigan did more of its to build the lead, so this is a bit misleading, but:
- Michigan had 5.0 yards/play against Iowa. Rutgers had 4.9
- Michigan allowed 5.1 yards/play to Iowa. Rutgers allowed 5.0
The timing of the yardage (coming back almost always requires more yardage) as well as the turnover differences are why Michigan won somewhat comfortably and Rutgers lost, but at a thousand foot view, the performances weren't that far apart.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^
I think the situation explains how Iowa did "well" and UM did "poorly" in the feelz department. When it mattered, Michigan moved the ball efficiently on Iowa's #1 SP+ defense and went up 20-0. At that point, IMO, the game was over. The only way you're going to lose is if you start throwing picks. Since this was the first time all year that Iowa had been down big, they started actually throwing downfield passes, which resulted in some gains (but only 7 points). We knew that they'd had 2 touchdown drives over 50 yards all season, so we forced them to drive the length of the field. They scored a sad touchdown at the end that was meaningless, but the result was a comfortable win.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^
It was also a pretty quick game. I think we had only nine offensive possessions?
October 2nd, 2022 at 2:15 PM ^
The TV listing had our game going for another half hour. Gameplay was limited but commercials still got the regular play time.
October 2nd, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^
We may take a leap next week. Meanwhile (speaking of leaps), take a look at the Wolfpack.
October 2nd, 2022 at 1:49 PM ^
NC State went down and to the left with the same vector as Michigan. It's Syracuse that is in the far upper right a long way from their mean.