Week 10 Polls and Ratings - AP #14, Coaches #15
Taking stock of where Michigan stacks up in the advanced stats before the committee rankings start. FEI won't be out for a couple days so the F/+ (#22 before ND) and FEI (#29 before ND) are not updated at this time.
AP Poll #14: http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
Coaches Poll #15: http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
F/+ #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
FEI #??: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei
Massey Ratings #11 (#13 Power Rating): http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings
Sagarin Ratings #10 (#11 in Predictor): http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
ESPN FPI #12: http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
SRS #15: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2019-ratings.html
538 #10: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/
Michigan's team statistical profile:
ESPN FPI: http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi?id=130&year=2019
Massey Ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4741&s=308075
October 27th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
ND at 16 is a joke.
They’ve played 2 good teams all year and lost both. Meanwhile we’ve won 2 and lost 2 against good teams, and whooped their asses yesterday and we’re only 2 spots ahead of them as we were in the preseason?
Also completely disagree with Minnesota above us. Do voters really think if they played Iowa, PSU, ND, and Wisconsin that they’d be better? They’ve also had 4 close calls against 4 very bad teams. Not only is our resume more impressive than theirs, we also started much higher than them, so there’s no reason they should be anywhere above us.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
Rankings are not always that easy. As Michigan proved, playing on the road in college football is very hard, both of NDs losses are on the road. At the sometime, somehow Michigan is now rated above Wisconsin in both polls. I am happy with Michigan's rankings, but clearly there are some things that are a bit off.
October 27th, 2019 at 8:22 PM ^
The Illinois loss for Wisconsin is considered bad. Even though Michigan lost to Wisconsin early in the season they haven't lost to a bad team like Illinois! Things are not static, so head to head only goes so far.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
I wouldn’t worry about Minnesota. Sooner or later, someone good has to pop up on their schedule. Once they lose, they will drop like a stone.
October 27th, 2019 at 5:49 PM ^
I wouldn't be so sure of that.
Though Fleck is a clown and entertaining, he's also a damn good motivator and there's increasingly more evidence he knows the x's and o's of being a successful head coach.
We'll find out soon if that's enough to make the Gophers legit. They have a bye week to prepare for a visit by Penn St, then travel to archrival Iowa and suddenly hapless Northwestern before finishing at home against rival Wisconsin. The schedule sets up well for them.
Though those are all winnable games, I think they go 2-1 vs the trio of PSU, Iowa, and Wisky, with the Iowa road game being their toughest task. 3-1 down the stretch sends them to Indy for the B1G Championship game.
October 27th, 2019 at 8:13 PM ^
I gotta be honest, I kind of want Minnesota to win the B10. We aren’t really an option. In the East it’s either PSU or OSU. Wisconsin let me down by getting blown out by OSU. That means that Minnesota having a Cinderella year would be the most entertaining thing in sports this year.
October 27th, 2019 at 4:31 PM ^
Another reasonable conclusion: Notre Dame has played no good teams and lost against two teams that came into the season with too much hype. Neither Michigan nor Georgia have done anything that merits a high ranking aside from solid victories over Notre Dame.
October 27th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^
Michigan aside from ND has beat ranked Iowa. They also took number 5 PSU down to the wire. We will find out about Georgia here soon. The back half of their schedule is loaded.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^
The AP Poll is a complete joke! It’s popularity contest at best. We need to give a convincing win against MSU and the rest of our schedule. Hopefully then we will be ready for OSU. A convincing win against them and some help with Penn State losing to OSU and Minnesota and we should be in the running for the Big Ten title and possibly the CFP.... or so I hope!
October 27th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
We need a lot more help than that.
October 27th, 2019 at 3:05 PM ^
I would certainly assume that we are not in the hunt for a BIG title. We are not, realistically. Our ceiling is the Rose Bowl, and that is roughly 15% chance.
I just don’t want to end the season playing Florida. That’s all. Just not Florida.
October 27th, 2019 at 4:10 PM ^
Rutgers could get hot and hang a loss on both OSU & PSU for us
(as pointed out by another MGoBlogger)
October 27th, 2019 at 9:19 PM ^
The ratings a joke, you say?
Welcome to the last 120 years of college football.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
Thanks for including the links to the advanced stat rankings.
October 27th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
Considering Michigan will be heavy favorites its next three games, almost guaranteed the Wolverines will be in the top 10 for THE GAME. #GoBlue
October 27th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^
I want us in the Holiday Bowl. Just getting that out there right now
October 27th, 2019 at 2:59 PM ^
Nothing too crazy but SEC bias. Georgia at #8 while OU drops to #10 is a friggin joke. OU by this very poll lost to a top 25 team on the road...Georgia lost to a completely crappy SC team that just lost to friggin Tennessee by 20 points.
Dont care that Minnesota is ahead...that will work itself out.
ND should have dropped further. They didn’t just lose, they got a completely embarrassed. They have five wins and none are particularly impressive.
October 27th, 2019 at 4:22 PM ^
Georgia is just not Top 10
Their best win is a close one at home against this same ND team that Michigan humiliated. While transitive property does not exist in football that's just clear SEC bias.
October 27th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
How did ND lose by so little on the road to Georgia? I feel like if we played Georgia on the road we'd lose by two TD's
October 27th, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
I’m not sure how you can lose to a shit Illinois team and get your doors blown off the next week and drop a total of 11 spots in that time span. It’s not an SEC team ffs...it’s Wisconsin
October 27th, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^
I don't care much about either the AP or Coaches Polls
Michigan played not-at-all like a 10ish team through the 1st half at PSU.
Michigan has played very much like a 10ish team from the 2nd half of PSU onward.
Blow out MSU, avoid letdowns and win at Indiana & MD, and take a realistic shot at OSU at home.
Go Blue
October 27th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
I'm not saying Minnesota is a world beater, I'm just saying the ranking system is still competely broken. Minnesota being 8-0 ranked under Baylor at 7-0 is mathematically, statistically, and even factually false in every respect. Neither team has beaten anybody, but Minnesota hasn't lost 1 more time. That's significant. It was significant when urban's Florida did it over us, it's still a measurable and real factor being totally discounted.
October 27th, 2019 at 4:56 PM ^
October 27th, 2019 at 5:41 PM ^
I added it in the other thread.
October 27th, 2019 at 5:09 PM ^
Thanks for all the links I guess but there is no way the 3rd and 4th ones are current. So I stopped there.
October 27th, 2019 at 5:36 PM ^
Read the top of the post: I wrote that the F/+ and FEI aren't released until later in the week. That is why I use "??" as a placeholder for Michigan's rank under those ratings. I prefer to start looking at these over the weekend instead of waiting until around Thursday for the last two.
The 4th one (S&P+) is current along with rest except for the two mentioned above.
October 27th, 2019 at 6:04 PM ^
If Michigan could win out that is an incredible season!!!
Top 10 finish. Go blue!