Way too early NFL mock drafts - two UM players in the first round?

Submitted by oriental andrew on January 6th, 2021 at 12:03 PM

Just saw the Trevor Lawrence news and wondered how the mock drafts were shaping up. Decided to look at a few and found that Kwity Paye is pretty much universally considered one of the top DE's off the board and Jalen Mayfield sneaking into a few first round mock drafts. The first 18 picks are set. 

Vinny Iyer of The Sporting News has Paye at #4 (!) to the Falcons

Joal Ryan of 247 has Paye at #7 to the Lions and Mayfield at #27 to the Steelers

Ryan Wilson of CBS Sports has Paye going #9 to the Broncos

Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports also has Paye at #9 to Denver

NBC Sports Boston guy has Paye at #10 to Dallas 

James Dator of SBNation has Paye at #11 to the Giants and Mayfield at #20 to da Bearsss

USA Today guy also says Paye at #11 to the Giants and Mayfield #20 to the Bears

The NBC Sports Bay Area guy has Paye at #18 to Miami, although he refers to him as "the second best edge rusher"

So I guess we'll expect to see Paye in round 1 probably and Mayfield as a fringe first rounder. 

Others of note: Justin Fields is generally expected in the top 5. Micah Parsons hanging around the 10-20 range, give or take. Rashawn Slater (OT) from NW is expected to go in the 10-20 range. And probably more osu guys I don't care about. 

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jdraman

January 6th, 2021 at 12:09 PM ^

I have really enjoyed Paye's time and performances here at Michigan. He's been an awesome player and has a great story of how he ended up coming to play and attend school at Michigan. However, I think his draft stock is a little inflated due to the lacking presence of a generational-type talent among edge rushers. He and Gregory Rousseau seem to be the agreed-upon and swappable #1 and #2 edge rushers for this draft. I think that any team that takes either of these guys in the top 10 will be reaching.

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GoBlue419

January 6th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^

I'll probably get blasted for this, but I really don't think Paye ever played like a Top 10 NFL Draft Pick while at M. I'm surprised that he's considered  somewhat of a consensus Top 10 and fringe Top 5 guy.

I'm sure alot of that has to do with his athleticism and the the assumption that he'll test really well at the Combine.

All that being said I genuinely want him to go as high as possible and perform as such in the league.

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RockinLoud

January 6th, 2021 at 1:14 PM ^

That's been Michigan for the last 25 years for the most part, doing less with more. Basically we're the Georgia of the north; recruit great overall, top 10 talent, but never actually accomplish anything. Though at least Georgia won their conference and made a couple playoff appearances. UM has only sniffed actually winning the conference like 3 times in the last 17 years.

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ralphgoblue

January 6th, 2021 at 3:48 PM ^

Gary was basically double and triple teamed every snap ,in college,Obviuolsy the way he has been playing in Green Bay proves how great a player he is. He has been OUTSTANDING for the Packers,PFF rates Gary as one the best run defenders in the NFL ,he might be the best at holding the Edge in the NFL .

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lilpenny1316

January 6th, 2021 at 12:28 PM ^

I'm stunned to see so many guys high on Paye. I don't remember Top 10 hype in the preseason.

If Fields slips past the Jets because they believe in Darnold, he might slide to Atlanta or Detroit. If either franchise passes on him, they're idiots.

 

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AC1997

January 6th, 2021 at 12:41 PM ^

I think Fields is going to be fascinating to follow.  His performance the last two years makes me want to agree with you - especially in this era where the NFL actually plays more like college teams and there are so many athletic QBs having success (Allen, Jackson, Murray, Wilson, etc.).  

At the same time....

  • Troy Smith 
  • Terrelle Pryor 
  • Braxton Miller
  • JT Barrett
  • Cardale Jones
  • Dwayne Haskins

All great college QBs with a ton of accolades....ZERO success in the NFL.  ZERO.  None of those guys are Justin Fields.....but all of them were exciting and successful players for OSU with a ton of wins under their belts.  And not one panned out even one little bit.  How much will the NFL hold that against Fields?  This is sort of like all of those old air-raid guys from the past....

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bronxblue

January 6th, 2021 at 1:06 PM ^

I think Fields is probably the best of that group in terms of ability to actually play QB...but honestly I thought he looked mediocre against pressure and reading defenses all year.  I know people are going to read a ton into his play against Clemson (and he deserves credit for that), I also saw him get frazzled by NW and IU.  Playing Alabama will be telling as to whether he can handle an elite defense, which is likely to translate in the NFL.

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canzior

January 6th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^

Playing Bama will help but it won't determine much, especially if he succeeds.  He won't be playing Ryan Day's offense anymore.  He won't have better skill position guys at his disposal than the defense. He doesn't have a remarkably quick trigger which you don't need when your guys are always wide open but if you don't have that, you have to read defenses and anticipate.  Don't know if we will ever see that at OSU.  I think it's why almost all the QBs in the league don't come from powerhouse programs with overwhelming talent. 

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bronxblue

January 6th, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^

The things I remember seeing about him last year from scouts were that he had a cannon of an arm and plus athleticism but he had a somewhat slow release and wasn't great at reading defenses.  Watching the playoff game I saw that most of his throws were quick and on early reads; he may have waited for someone to get open but he knew where he was going with the ball quickly.  That said, he also threw the ball into some tight windows that I'm not sure even NFL corners could cover.  

I agree that guys who succeed in the NFL at QB tend to come from programs where they have to do a lot, but Deshaun Watson came from Clemson and looks pretty good, and Tua showed some promise in Miami (though he struggled later in the year) despite coming from Alabama.  And Oklahoma has had a run of good QBs making the jump (especially if you throw in Hurts), so who knows.  

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canzior

January 6th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^

And I would say a quick release OR quick decision making are necessary. He's making a lot of throws in clean pockets to more athletic guys and with a lead in an offense with a limited number of reads vs college defenses which aren't nearly as exotic or talented as NFL defenses, even Bamas. Other thing against Day and OSU now...they chose Haskins over Burrows.  Haskins is horrible, Burrows has a lot of promise.  Does that say something about their ability to pick QBs for the next level? Maybe. If I was a scout, it would be on my radar. Also, was Day honest about Haskins as a player/person during the interviews?  Urban famously said he was surprised when he heard Michael Thomas was working hard with the Saints. Did he tell that to those interested in drafting him?  

Deshaun Watson put Clemson on the map, they weren't a powerhouse when he got there. I think their best recruiting class before that title wasn't even top 10. 

I'm a bit down on Tua.  I thought he would be more like Burrows or Herbert but he looked like the game was moving too fast for him. He tucked and ran an awful lot. Conventional wisdom is that a QBs 2nd year in the NFL is what he's going to be so we'll see next year.

The Oklahoma guys are pretty good. All 3 were transfers, and while all 3 show promise, I think the book is still out on all of them.  Baker was touch and go for a bit, and they barely made the playoffs right?  If they missed the playoffs this year, I wonder what people would think of him.   And I think their ability says more about Lincoln Riley than anything else, because they all defy conventional wisdom. 2 of them are really short and Hurts is the same he's been at Bama, a bit of a scattershot passer.

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Qmatic

January 6th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^

Fields throws an incredible deep ball. However, you'll notice it is when he has ample time and can air it to an elite athlete to go and get the ball. I haven't seen him be that great when not having great protection and making second reads. I could see him being as 'meh' as Daniel Jones, or as good as Dak Prescott.

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Golden section

January 6th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^

Smith was an arrogant little 6th rounder with an attitude who showed up his head coach.

Pryor and Miller were good athletes that played other positions.

JT Barrett was a run first guy, like Lamar Jackson only not as good as a runner or passer.

Cardale Jones had 3 good starts and lost his starting position at OSU the following year. He was always a project at best.

The jury is kind of out on Haskins. He really was the only one on the list that projected as a top ten QB pick. He was considered the consensus No. 2 quarterback behind Kyle Murray. Some were surprised that he was passed up at 6 for Daniel Jones and dropped to 15  - many weren't.  He was Dan Synder's selection, not the coaches.

Even Meyer said he wasn't ready for prime-time. 

Then when he showed up the fears were realized.  He was constantly late for meetings, didn't bother to master the playbook,  just wouldn't prepare for games and dogged it in practice.

Then he missed the final snap of his first NFL win because he was taking selfies with fans and he broke Covid protocol partying maskless after a loss. The WFT controlled their destiny and he still didn't prepare  

By all accounts Justin Fields isn't that guy. Meyer said Fields is a high character guy with great leadership skills. He leads by example and no one prepares harder mentally and physically. Unlike Haskins Meyer said  Fields is completely ready for the next level and that he would build a franchise around him. Fields and Meyer to the Jaguars?

So he could be the one QB to buck the trend.

 

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poppaskilove

January 6th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^

This speaks volumes, where we have 2 first rounders (and a potential top 5-10 pick!), and STILL were absolutely abysmal this year... And here we are, momentum building on a BIG extension for Harbaugh...

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AC1997

January 6th, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^

I don't know what to think about Paye.  I think he's improved a ton and is a very good player.  But a top-ten draft pick?  Wow.....that's a shocker.  I just don't see an NFL team putting all of that pressure on him to turn into an elite pass rusher - more of a solid role player.  

With that being said, what probably makes him attractive is that he's such a good all around player.  Guys like Winovich and Uche worry NFL teams for their ability to hold up against the run.  Meanwhile you could argue that Paye has more success in his career than Gary ever did.  The Packers made him a first rounder and he's been solid for them.  He's never going to be Reggie White, but he's a solid starter.  

If I were an NFL GM my board would probably have Paye as a second-tier DE that I consider in the second round.

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DTOW

January 6th, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^

The thing with Paye is that he's so well rounded that there's almost no chance he busts.  If he continues to develop his pass rush technique he's got the size and athleticism to become a pro bowl level DE.  If his pass rush just never really materializes to anything better than average/slightly above, you still have yourself a DE or situation defensive lineman that is fantastic against the run and can move in space.

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bronxblue

January 6th, 2021 at 1:15 PM ^

I think Paye is getting a bit of the QB "bump" where teams in need of a QB overrate guys based on hope (regardless of actual talent) because you need someone. Similarly, if you need a DE he really is one of the best on the board, and some team is going to get a pretty good guy who is still improving as a player.  

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WoodleyIsBeast

January 6th, 2021 at 1:12 PM ^

Honestly I don't see how Parsons gets out of the top 10, and I wouldn't mind him at 7 for Lions(Saleh's first true pass rusher if gets the HC role?).

Not to turn this into a Lions thread....but at 7 I'd be happy with:

1) Lawrence

2) Fields

3) Wilson

4) Sewell

5) Chase

6) Parsons

Maybe even throw Devonta Smith in there. The odds of those six going in the first six picks are low....hopefully a solid GM in en route!

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borninAnnArbor

January 6th, 2021 at 1:41 PM ^

If Urban Meyer takes the Jacksonville job as rumored and get the first over all pick, I wonder if he would take Justin Fields over Trevor Lawrence.  

If he picks Lawrence, how will that impact the narative of OSU quarterbacks not succeeding in the NFL?

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pdgoblue25

January 6th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^

great kid, great player, great effort, go get your money big man

 

but......top 10 pick? .......seriously?

I just don't remember too many top 10 picks where there were large stretches of the game where I couldn't even remember him being on the field.

Then again, what the hell do I know, I thought Taco was going to be great in the NFL.

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