UM/ND line is now UM +3.5

Submitted by massblue on

I am here in LV for a couple of days and went to place a few bets and noticed that the line for UM/ND has moved.  Opened at +6, then last Saturday was +5.5 and is now +3.5. I was told that betting interest in the game has been the highest so far this year.

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Danwillhor

September 4th, 2014 at 2:45 PM ^

Just the principal of it, odds, etc. I'm a moron. Say a horse (or team) is 10:1 to do "X", does that mean you win $10 for every $1 you bet IF they do "X"? I kind if get lines. If it's Oregon @ +13, you have to bet that Oregon will win by 14+ to win the bet. In that case (if correct) do you simply win what you bet (if you bet $500 you win $500?). I'm an idiot with gambling so I avoid it lol. That said, I know football and I don't see Oregon winning by 14+. I actually think msu wins but while I hope they lose, it will be a close game either way, IMO.

Joined: 12/02/2008

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Danwillhor

September 4th, 2014 at 2:53 PM ^

Not a Debbie Downer but I have a feeling we lose handily Saturday. I don't like EG. Said last year that his suspension was equal to a mental RS. I think he understands the offense better to properly use his mobility and arm when needed, respectfully. We won't see the EG we watched 2 years ago but a Troy Smith type, IMO. I hope I'm wrong but I don't trust this team on the road, our OL (therefore the offense) or our ability to stop their offense for 4 quarters. I think they pull away late. I could easily see it being a two score game. Then again, this game is always wonky and I really hope I'm wrong so......?

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LSAClassOf2000

September 4th, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^

A few sites that do simulations and projections have started to nudge their projections a little towards Michigan although the simulations, which run with some historic data, are still favoring ND a bit. TeamRankings, for example, had us at 24% for an estimated win probability, but right now it is close to 40%, so we're seeing that swinging in models of the game as well. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

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maize-blue

September 4th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^

Yeah, I think it's something like that. So this is now pretty much a wash/even. My theory is that because the later we get into the week and the "suspended" players haven't been re-instated the spread is getting closer. It's possible that the original line was created with some thought that they would be back for the game. I don't know, just speculating.

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grumbler

September 4th, 2014 at 9:47 PM ^

My theory is that ND betters are betting more on emotion than Michigan betters (more casual ND fans betting than casual UM betters) and so Vegas wanted to get those early emotional voters to commit to the most unfavorable line Vegas thought they could offer and still get action.  As the serious betters start looking at the game, Vegas has to offer better deals to still keep people betting on ND.  I don't think it had anything top do with predictions of the players being back.

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markusr2007

September 4th, 2014 at 2:57 PM ^

in September may surprise you:

2004 - Gerry DiNardo's Indiana Hoosiers (3-8), 30-24.

That was 10 years ago, not to mention fucking incredible.

The only other team to beat Oregon at Autzen in September in recent years?

#1 ranked USC in 2005, 45-13.

One does not simply walk into Autzen Stadium and defeat the ducks....

 

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Danwillhor

September 4th, 2014 at 3:23 PM ^

My 2nd most hated team but md basically built msu to have the mentality usc had back then. They have a swagger. They plug & play guys and they all play knowing (not thinking our hoping) that they will do their job, recruit rankings be damned. I hope Oregon drops 100 on them! I hope msu gets wrecked but they thrive off of the underdog mentality. This is one if the rare teams that won't be intimidated in that stadium, IMO. It doesn't fit the attitude of that program right now. Could win, could lose but I think it's close either way. I happen to hope they get whooped ha.

Joined: 12/02/2008

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harmon40

September 4th, 2014 at 4:59 PM ^

...and I also think they will play well in OR.

Yes, they replace 6 starters on D.  They replace them with upperclassmen (except 1 soph) who all played plenty last year.

I think their D can disrupt OR's offense, and I think they will. Should be a great game...here's to hoping that the Ducks can pull it out 

Joined: 05/02/2009

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JayMo4

September 4th, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^

ND is missing key players to suspension and now a starting S to injury.  They have a skilled QB but he's in the position of having to win the games by himself (sound familiar?)  ND rushed for 50something yards last week IIRC, and that's with Golson's runs included.  I have trouble figuring out how I'd pick ND if I was a neutral party (though of course I'm not so maybe my biases are causing me to miss something.)

Certainly the Irish are capable of winning, particularly if we lose the turnover battle.  But if we prove even moderately competent of containing Golson, I think we win unless the offense utterly self-destructs Borges-style.

Joined: 04/19/2013

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jdon

September 4th, 2014 at 7:03 PM ^

I like our chances, I think they opened at +6 because vegas wanted the masses to take michigan... they are moving to 3.5 to get money on the domers...

 

 

Joined: 09/28/2009

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madmaxweb

September 5th, 2014 at 12:13 AM ^

Does anyone know of a great site for beginners when it comes to betting? I've looked online and found some ok articles but was hoping someone had an exceptional site to help newbies like myself understand everything. Thanks in advance.

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