Tonight's Rooting Guide - Bubble Action
Hi all! There are a number of bubble teams / teams that matter to us in action tonight, so I figured I'd put together a rooting guide for tonight!
First, let's dive into where things stand with Michigan:
- Our current NET ranking is 65. An interesting update since Sunday, Pittsburgh is back to a Quad 1 win, so we're sitting at 3 (with others close)
- 3 of our remaining 4 games are against Quad-1 opponents on the road (Rutgers, Illinois, and Indiana). Interestingly enough, Wisconsin is currently a Quad-3 home game by 1 spot.
- As of his latest bracket, Lunardi has us as his 10th team from the cut line.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games of interest to Michigan. As requested, I've added a little more info about the games:
- Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh (Pitt by 12) - 7pm EST on ACC Network - Pitt is hands down our best non-conference win. They keep flirting on the edge of a Q-1 & Q-2 win. We want Pitt in this one.
- Miami @ Virginia Tech (VT by 2.5) - 7pm on ESPNU - This is kind of an odd one to have on here but it serves a purpose. VT currently has 3 Quad 3 losses & a Quad 4 loss. But they're currently 7-7 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. They are one spot above us in the NET ranking. With a home loss to Miami, they'll almost certainly drop below us. Go Canes!
- Mississippi State @ Missouri (Mizzou by 3.5) - 7pm on SEC Network - This is probably the most important game for our bubble chances of the night. Most brackets have Mississippi State on the last 4 in or last 4 out lines. Mississippi State may be a team we need to jump them at the end of the year. Plus it's fun to root against an MSU lol Go Mizzou!
- Indiana @ Michigan State (MSU by 2.5) - 9pm on ESPN - This is a really challenging game for me. MSU is 9 spots away from being a Quad 1 win for us but man, rooting for them just feels wrong (even with recent events). And we want a potential win at IU next week to look as good as possible. I can bring myself to say it but I think I'm not rooting for IU here. I'll leave it at that.
- Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (OU by 2.5) - 9pm on ESPN2 - Oklahoma was a team that was trending however they're now 13-14 and have lost 5 of their last 6 games. Texas Tech, on the other hand, has won 3 games in a row. 2 of them were against top 15 teams. In most brackets, they are just outside of the tournament, a few spots ahead of Michigan. We need TT's run to be over, Go Sooners!
- Utah State @ Wyoming (Utah St. by 6) - 9pm on CBS Sports Network - Utah State is on the First Four Out / Next Four Out on most brackets, just head of Michigan. A loss to Wyoming, while on the road, will still be a Quad 3 loss. It would be a brutal hit to their resume. We're rooting big for the Cowboys here.
So, there you have it. Decent slate of games and a chance for Michigan to get that much closer. Let's get some games to go our way before our battle with Rutgers on Thursday! Go Blue!
February 21st, 2023 at 4:00 PM ^
Thanks, TB9. I really appreciate these guides.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
I cant speak for everyone here but IMO these types of posts were much more fun when we were worrying about our seeding and if we'd be on the one or two line.
Ant Wright tweeted the other day posted we're six possessions away from being a lock as a four/five seed and he's not wrong. Just one possession different outcome in the Virginia, CSU, Kentucky, UNC, Iowa & Indiana games and they're 21-6. It's really amazing how close they've been to a pretty damn good basketball team.
It would not surprise me at all to see them get hot and roll into the BIG tourny 12-8 in conference play and be a 3 or 4 seed. Unfortunately it also not surprise me to see them lose more heartbreakers and finish near the bottom.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
Wisconsin also. If they even went 3-4 in those 7 games, they're comfortably in right now. And on the flip side, we don't really have any close wins other than Ohio U in overtime. Frustrating season.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
It pains me to correct you, but the Eastern game can be considered "close".
February 21st, 2023 at 9:42 PM ^
Haha sad but true, Mich won by 5 but it was a battle until the last minute.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
The record is almost shocking in close games. Most of their wins have been pretty comfortable, but the losses in 5 points or less games is as bad as I can remember.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:55 PM ^
I'm not sure whether I think our close losses are due to the odds tilting against UM this season or inexperience. (Did I read on one of today's comments that Michigan may have the least experience in the Big Ten?)
But looking at the basket half full, I'm going with inexperience BECAUSE the inexperienced ones seem to be trending toward experience.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
Either Indiana wins and pushes MSU towards the NIT or MSU wins and we climb closer to 3rd in the Big Ten race. A true win-win situation.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:37 PM ^
You know, the interesting conundrum I've been thinking (and I know a few folks have brought this up). Is this a year we want to avoid the double-bye? Let's say we go 3-1 in the final 4 games but lose our first game. Does that leave us out? I think I'd rather take my chances, go 3-1, and win on Thursday. I get that Friday leaves us with only 3 games to win but man, feels like if we lose Friday, it might be over depending on the opponent.
It's an interesting question for sure.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:49 PM ^
Using the Big Ten Tournament simulator, even if Michigan goes 3-1 down the stretch, the most likely landing spot is 5 or 6 seed. They would probably need to go 4-0 to get into the Top 4.
Almost every scenario where they go 2-2 lands Michigan in the 8-9 game against either Illinois or MSU
February 21st, 2023 at 6:05 PM ^
It's very unlikely MSU could drop down to the NIT. They have six Quadrant 1 wins. The benefit of IU winning is primarily about IU looking better.
February 21st, 2023 at 6:16 PM ^
A tie between MSU and Indiana would be nice, but - it’s not going to happen…
February 21st, 2023 at 4:38 PM ^
B1G Tourney run.... or bust, is how i see it.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
There a decent change you may be right. But if we somehow beat Rutgers then win @ home it really gets interesting. Thursday will be a huge game.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:51 PM ^
Thanks.
I'm reading your post, not at all to get any hopes up, but purely for educational purposes about the state of current basketball.
February 21st, 2023 at 4:58 PM ^
Thanks! I made notes and now have a reason to check scores tonight.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
Thank you for doing these. There is still hope as I think 2-0 this week is within the realm of possibility especially if we get back TWill who has shown he’s the best 4 we’ve got though Cheddar made some nice plays in the second half of the last game. Go 2-0 and then there’s a puncher’s chance to do 1-1 or better in the final 2 games which would make things tough on the committee.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
Playing Reed and Dickinson together is our best lineup.
February 21st, 2023 at 6:09 PM ^
I'm all in. Roll with it and see what happens. It's our only real chance at a breakthrough.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
Twill is almost unplayable
February 21st, 2023 at 9:34 PM ^
He's absolutely playable off the bench. That's when he's been the best - an energy guy who comes in for 10-15 minutes a game and can run, shoot a little, defend, and not be out there long enough for teams to exploit his limitations. I know there was some clamoring for Tschetter (for inexplicable reasons to me) but Williams is significantly better than him and UM likely wins @Wisconsin with him taking those minutes. Reed should be starting but people are vastly underrating how effective Williams can be on this team in the proper role.
February 21st, 2023 at 9:49 PM ^
I'll double down Bronx. I'm thinking he might be even better off the bench.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
I'm rooting for Juwon to get better as a coach and recruiter.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:34 PM ^
I'm rooting for the rest of the family too: Juwhan, Joewon, Jawhen and George.
That Juwan guy seems like a pretty good coach and recruiter.
Dunno about Juwon, he was always kind of a scoundrel.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
Recruiting isn’t a problem for Juwan but I have to admit I thought he would land bigger fish than he has as a whole. The biggest recruiting misses have been at the guard spots. He’s not recruiting at a level that can sustain the Houstan and Diabates of the world to leave after one year. We really need Jett, Hunter and Kobe to stay one more year.
February 21st, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^
Good stuff.
Per Bracket matrix UM isn't listed on a single bracket but I guess things can change. Still feels like they're on the outside looking in an desperately need to go at least 3-1 to pop into the conversation.
February 21st, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^
And that's totally fair. We still have some opportunity, but if we don't cash it in we don't deserve to be in. We can't expect to take a spot from some team that has earned it.
Our Tournament started on Saturday. Win and advance.
February 21st, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^
Love that analogy and hope the team embraces it! Last Saturday started our tournament, awesome!
February 21st, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^
Nerp. Double post
February 21st, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
Truest of the Bluest!!! Thank you! And GO BLUE
February 21st, 2023 at 9:07 PM ^
First two games of the night go our way!
Georgia Tech gave Pitt all the could handle but Pitt gets the road win.
Miami also went into Blacksburg and beat Virginia Tech. We should almost certainly jump them in the NET tomorrow morning.
February 21st, 2023 at 9:26 PM ^
Missouri also takes down Mississippi State in OT!!!
3-3 tonight so far.
February 21st, 2023 at 11:02 PM ^
I can't root for moo - I just can't. I even root for Dook to beat them.
February 22nd, 2023 at 8:00 AM ^
I made an exception and rooted for them last night.
But I don't plan on that happening again any time soon.