Swinney ranks OSU #11 in Coaches Poll

Submitted by Bosch on December 21st, 2020 at 11:55 AM

Link to Yahoo! Sports article.

"Swinney has a top four of Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. You have to scroll past Florida, Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Iowa State and Coastal Carolina before you land on the Buckeyes at No. 11."

I haven't decided how I feel about this yet.

On one hand, F OSU.

On the other, F Swinney and his opinion of how the B1G handled the season during the pandemic.

ChuckieWoodson

December 21st, 2020 at 3:43 PM ^

You're very self-aware of your love for OSU.  Takes no longer than 30 seconds to look at your posting history.  You're not fooling anyone.  This is the last time I'll engage you as it's pointless, but it's obvious what you are. Hopefully you're getting your jollies off on this.

MGoBlue96

December 21st, 2020 at 12:22 PM ^

Logically I have to in this case, there is no rational reason someone could come up with to leave them out of the top 10. Teams should not be punished for having games cancelled per Big Ten protocol. Also yeah in all likelihood Clemson will handle OSU, but also not very bright of Sweeney to give your opponent motivation. Then again I have always got the impression Sweeney is one of those coaches whose intelligence drops drastically when he is not on the sideline.

ldevon1

December 21st, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^

I love it. If he honestly doesn't believe they belong there, more power to him. He has to play them, and gave them all the extra motivation they need, if any is needed when you are playing the team that knocked you out last year. I don't think this OSU team is as good as last years, and I think Clemson is better than last years team, so when he kicks their asses, he can say it even louder that they didn't belong. 

Maison Bleue

December 21st, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^

Here are some rational reasons: 

  1. OSU played 6(!) games and most of the teams in the top 10 played at least 3 more than that and some 5 games more than that. That means in most cases OSU had 5 less chances to lose than these teams.
  2. In the only 2 games they played against teams with a pulse, they looked pretty meh. And Indiana and Northwesern aren't great teams in my opinion.
  3. When I look at the names on Dabo's list, only two(Coastal Carolina and Cinci) could I say "I think OSU would definitely win that game."

DoubleB

December 21st, 2020 at 12:48 PM ^

Your first point is the correct answer and in my opinion is a very good reason to rank OSU #11. They only played 6 games. Everyone else going to the CFP played 11. That's 5 less games that you might lose, 5 less games where injuries aren't a factor, etc. 

Those details matter and the committee should have taken that into account.

I think Dabo is a complete tool. He's also 100% correct on this.

TrueBlue2003

December 21st, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^

It's not a resume competiton though.  It's the best teams.  Clemson and Bama were the best two teams before they played a game.  Unfortunately, that's the criteria and that's how the committee has always approached it.

There is no rational argument to make that OSU isn't in the top 10 (or even top 4 really).  The argument "that they only played six games" is only a logical answer to the question, why doesn't OSU have a loss?  But since everyone else that played more games also has at least one loss, that argument doesn't really matter since it doesn't eliminate a team anyway.

Can anyone with a straight face say that OSU wouldn't probably beat ND?  You can't.  ND is not very good.  OSU wins that at least 7 of 10 times.  And for the record, I think A&M should have been in ahead of ND.

TrueBlue2003

December 21st, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^

ND is not good.  Mostly the same team that we beat by 100 last year.  They didn't belong the field this past weekend.  Haven't beaten a good team since losing to us (and no, Clemson sans a bunch of guys is not a good team - just ask Boston College).

They would be more than TD underdog against OSU.  That's a verifiable, statistical fact (they're 9 points behind in FPI, 8 in Sagarin, similar in any model that closely ties to vegas spreads).

We can even verify this by actual Vegas. Clemson was a 10.5 point favorite over ND going into their game Saturday.  Which was obviously too low, but OSU will be within a TD even after the information that Clemson at close to full strength is more than three TDs better than Notre Dame.  

And that's essentially how the committee picks the top 4.

I'm not saying I like it.  Because that's the basis by which they put OSU into the playoff ahead of PSU in 2016 despite not winning their conference and OSU losing to PSU. That's the basis by which Bama backed into the playoff in 2017 despite not winning their league.  But again, it's not a resume competition.  It's the committee trying to determine the best teams and there is absolutely no possible argument for thinking ND is better than OSU (less talented, ranked worse in all the metrics based rankings, etc, etc).

OSU doesn't have a championship caliber defense but ND is not even close to championship caliber on either side of the ball.

Yeoman

December 21st, 2020 at 7:39 PM ^

Why do people think ND played a good schedule? It ranks 53rd at Massey and that's if you (like his computer) forget that one of the Clemson games was against a covid-decimated team. Five of their wins were outside the top 80.

There weren't many OOC games this year so it's hard to judge, but the few the ACC had went badly.

DoubleB

December 21st, 2020 at 7:44 PM ^

OSU has beaten two teams that weren't complete tire fires: Indiana and Northwestern by a combined 19 points. They have oodles more talent than both of those teams. 

Northwestern's defense embarrassed Fields. Indiana's offense did the same to the OSU defense. 

I think ND would beat OSU. They would run the ball on them and ND would do what they did against Clemson in their first game--stop the run. 

But more than anything it's hard to judge how good Ohio State is since they haven't played enough games to form a full opinion. I can tell you one thing, they are clearly, CLEARLY worse than last year's team.

 

JonathanE

December 21st, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^

I hate having to write something defending OSU but who exactly did Clemson play this season? Notre Dame and then who else? Please don't try and make an argument for how good Miami is. So basically, Clemson went out and played a bunch of Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska as well as a FCS team and now that is something to brag about? 

 

TrueBlue2003

December 21st, 2020 at 3:41 PM ^

They were missing a lot more players than just Lawrence.   Clemson had a lot of defensive players out.  You saw the difference in how they completely shut down ND Saturday right?

The Clemson team that lost in OT to ND barely beat Boston College.  Totally different team.  So yes, that Clemson team was worse than the IU team OSU beat.

Maison Bleue

December 21st, 2020 at 4:21 PM ^

No you weren't talking about Clemson, you were implying that if anyone should be left out it was Notre Dame and not OSU. Because OSU beat teams in NU that is "on par with UNC", AND Indiana, "who is better than UNC"! (which again... maybe?) I think ND should be in over OSU because they not only had a much tougher schedule(playing Clemson twice), they played 5 more freaking football games than OSU. OSU's resume is, "Whooped 4 awful opponents" and "looked not great beating the only decent teams they played, but hey, we're undefeated(playing a fraction of the games everyone else did)!"

Yeoman

December 21st, 2020 at 8:38 PM ^

FWIW:

Sagarin:

  • Indiana -3.5 vs North Carolina
  • Northwestern pick vs. North Carolina

Massey:

  • Indiana -4 vs. North Carolina
  • Northwestern -2.5 vs. North Carolina...and, as long as I'm here:
  • Ohio St. -10 vs. Notre Dame

Massey would also favor 5 SEC teams over ND, as well as Oklahoma and Iowa. They both had Georgia at #4 if you look at the rating they use for predictions.

 

Westside Wolverine

December 21st, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^

If OSU crushed a few more B1G teams and a couple of warmup cupcakes and just happened to lose one game along the way, would they not still be in the playoff? A loss in any of those other five games would not have disqualified them. It is such a stupid argument to make when everyone who could have made the playoffs has one loss except Bama. Every team except Bama has at least one flaw; Clemson - losing to ND, ND - getting crushed by a fully weaponized Clemson, OSU - fewer games played, Texas A&M - crushed by Bama. Turning OSU's games played flaw into a loss would not change the Committee's decision to include them over A&M since they are a conference champion.

MGoBlue96

December 21st, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^

The reality is if OSU actually played Maryland, Illinois and Michigan who actually believes any of those teams would have actually been able to beat them? Would have changed nothing. And everybody behind them may have played more games but those teams also have weak resumes. Coastal's best win was over a BYU team who had a joke of a schedule. The committee was not about to put teams with weak resumes who had pretty much a 0% chance of beating Clemson in over a OSU team who could at least potentially give Clemson a game if healthy.

TrueBlue2003

December 21st, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^

If the criteria is just "best 4", which it is, then they deserve to be in.  There is no min number of games required so tell me two teams that deserve to be in ahead of them (aside from Bama and Clemson of course).

Notre Dame isn't very good.  They got crushed by Clemson and their win over Clemson was obviously pretty meaningless given how many guys were out (it was a lot more than just Lawrence).   We know ND doesn't belong on the field with the top two teams, we don't know that about OSU.

Similar with A&M which was destroyed by Bama.  They only had two wins against teams with winning records.  They beat Vandy by only 5.  I think they should have been in over ND, but very hard to make the argument they deserve it over OSU.

No one else even comes close.  Despite playing more games, Cinci still has an inferior SoS and barely squeaked by their final two opponents.  I was hoping they'd blow out Tulsa to make things interesting. Definitely could have made that argument in that case that they should have been the 4th.  I think you still could make an argument for them over ND and A&M since they have't lost, let alone haven't been blown out.