Sunday's Rooting Guide - (to stay on the) Bubble Edition

Submitted by True Blue 9 on February 26th, 2023 at 10:24 AM

Well, yesterday was.....something. Lots of crazy games, quite a few buzzer-beaters and if it wasn't clear before, today simply is a must-win. Can Michigan make the tourney if they lose today? I mean, yes but it becomes much, much harder. Let's take a look at yesterday's action and where Michigan stands entering the day:
 

  • We had 10 games we had rooting interests in & it was a bit of a mixed bag. 4 of the games went our way (thanks San Diego State, TCU, Kansas, & Kansas State). In particular, the Texas Tech loss was big for Michigan. 
  • UNC, Mississippi State, Clemson, Arizona State, USC, and Oregon all had big wins & a number of them were on the road. No way around it, some of these results made Michigan's road a little tougher. 
  • Michigan's NET ranking went down from 53 to 55 but with a win today, that won't be a problem. We're 42 on KenPom and 46 on Torvik. 
  • Bracket Matrix tends to have lags during the season because brackets are slow to update but we did show up on a bracket for the first time yesterday. I'd bet with a win today, we show up on a few more. 
  • Northwestern is 7 spots away from giving us another Quad-1 win. They play Maryland today and have a chance to get there (or close) today. Pitt is also 2 spots away from being a Quad-1 win after they beat Syracuse. 

There aren't a ton of games today that have bubble implications but there are a few critical ones:

  • Northwestern (20-8, 11-6) at Maryland (19-9, 10-7) - (Maryland by 6) - 12pm EST on BTN - As mentioned above, Northwestern is 7 spots away from giving us another Quad-1 win and a win at Maryland just might do it. Let's go Wildcats!
  • Wisconsin (16-11, 8-9) at MICHIGAN (16-12, 10-7) - (Michigan by 5) - 2pm on CBS - What else is there to say? It's Senior Day, we're facing a fellow bubble team. Today is simple: WIN THE GAME!
  • Cincinnati (19-10, 10-6) at Memphis (21-7, 11-4) - (Memphis by 5.5) - 2pm on ESPN2 - This is sort of an interesting game. Memphis is a 10 or 11 seed on most brackets, so far from safe. Cincinnati is off the bubble right now but could sneak in with a late run. With that said, they're far enough down the bubble now that we'd prefer Cincinnati to win this game, so that we could potentially pass Memphis on Selection Sunday. Do us a solid David DeJulius! 
  • Rutgers (17-11, 9-8) at Penn State (17-11, 8-9) - (PSU by 3) - 6:30pm on BTN - Hands down, aside from the Michigan game, this is the most critical game of the day for us. Penn State is ahead of us in the bubble pecking order on most sites, so we would very much prefer them to lose today. Go Scarlet Knights! 

Thanks again for all of the great feedback! As requested by MGoOhNo, I went ahead and added team records in the rooting guide today

We've got 2 weeks until Selection Sunday. Michigan has won 5 of their last 7 games and have a chance to get another big win today. 

. Go Blue!

goblu330

February 26th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^

Yeah yesterday wasn’t great.  And MSU was a minute away from being a Quad 1 win before Sparty-No-ing things all up. 
 

I feel yesterday’s results might require a BTT semi-final win from Michigan to make it unless they finish 3-0.

Joined: 01/07/2022

MGoPoints: 32123

TrueBlue2003

February 26th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^

Nah, it's not gonna be that difficult.  They're right on the doorstep.  Yesterday went against Michigan on net, but there will be days in the coming weeks that will go Michigan's way.  The bubble is pretty static on average, so Michigan controls its destiny.

And that means they need to win 2 of 3 regular season games and maybe one in the BTT.  That's it.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

aMAIZEinBLUEinTX

February 26th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^

Thanks again for the daily rundown -

 

On Torvik, Michigan is 1st team out with a W (wiscy drops to 4th out), and with the inverse result that we will not consider, Michigan drops to 10th team out.

 

Pitt, NC, and ASU on the last 4 in line all had Ws yesterday.  

As mentioned, Pitt blowout win over Syracuse did not get them to top-50 NET (and they could very well drop a few spots today pending our game and Penn State, among others), and beating sub-200 ND won't get them there either.  According to Torvik, that's the difference between in and out for Michigan if we win today. Need to root for Pitt to lose (yes, dying on this hill), as they are net -2 on NET this week despite a 2-0 week. 

Joined: 03/01/2011

MGoPoints: 1184

True Blue 9

February 26th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^

In particular, that buzzer-beater by Arizona State was pretty brutal yesterday. ASU is pretty far down the pecking line without that shot. With that said, I don't think people understand how big the 3 Big 12 losses were yesterday. In particular that Texas Tech loss. 

I wouldn't be shocked if, on Torvik, we jump WVU with a win today. Iowa State beating them tomorrow would be a big help. 

Joined: 11/25/2012

MGoPoints: 7963

TrueBlue2003

February 26th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^

This is your post from yesterday:

These Q3/Q4 wins aren't moving the needle, and actually diluting SOS.  Syracuse and ND won't get them to 50; rather, they'd stay floating in the 55-60 range. Only the game at #13 Miami will move the needle.

This was clearly wrong.  Pitt moved up to 52nd (jumped over us) and would have moved up even further had they won by more than 17.  Every game is an opportunity to move up or down because of the margin of victory component in NET.

Pitt is just as likely to win by 22 over ND and move into the top 50 than they are to lose to ND so the question that remains is just which is better for Michigan?

I think it's debatable but I think Michigan is much better served having their own resume improved (ie getting another q1 win) because that helps them relative to all the other 17 teams on the bubble.

Pitt losing helps Michigan relative to Pitt but it makes Michigans resume worse and that is detrimental relative to the other 16 teams on the bubble.  I think that's a worse scenario.  But again, that's debatable. 

What's not debatable is that Pitt can get to the top 50 (and is already on their way) against Cuse and ND. Which is an easier way to get there than having to beat Miami (and if they get there against ND, a loss to Miami likely won't put them out if its relatively close). 

Regardless, we are rooting for a high variance outcome in the Pitt / ND game.  I do agree that winning that by eight doesn't really help in either direction.  It will keep Pitt ahead of Michigan and it won't move them up to top 50.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

aMAIZEinBLUEinTX

February 26th, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^

You stated  unequivocally that Pitt would move up to Top-50 Q1 status by beating Cuse+ND. That is simply not true.

Pitt WAS #50 the day they played GT this week. They are net -2 with 2 wins since. Michigan passes Pitt with a W today. As does Penn State. Pitt will be ~54 tomorrow, and ~58 after beating ND as that is akin to GT (actually lower in the standings) and other teams move up. Pitt, down several spots this 2-0 week, does not move up (-4 by beating #207 GT by 8) by beating #200 ND. We pass Pitt on S-Curve if they lose at ND. All these things are true - Pitt is not getting to Top-50 unless they win at Miami, which ultimately steals 1 of a very select few bubble bids from us, much worse than any marginal cutoff Q1 benefit would bring. Pitt needs to lose, and, objectively speaking, the counterargument has lost its merit the last 2 weeks as we've progressed on the S-Curve.

 

Joined: 03/01/2011

MGoPoints: 1184

TrueBlue2003

February 26th, 2023 at 8:37 PM ^

I said nothing of the sort.  Where did I say that?

My entire point all along has been that margin of victory matters now with NET.  I'd never make a statement simply saying that wins alone over bad teams would be enough (just like you are wrong to say wins necessarily won't be enough while disregarding margin of victory). 

If they had won close over cuse, they may have dropped. If they win close over ND they'll probably drop. I'm not certain because NET still overly rewards road wins like RPI did.  That's still part of the formula.  That's why Oregon didn't drop despite only beating #214 Oregon State (worse than GTech) by 2 on the road.

I said Pitt would move up to 51st or 52nd with a 17 point win against Syracuse and they did exactly that (check the timestamp on the thread).  They will move up further with a large margin victory over ND.  I don't know how much they'd need, but given that bump for road wins, my guess is only 15+ over ND to get to top 50.  Maybe 20.  But there's a number and that's the point.  You are wrong to say they can't get there at ND.  They absolutely can if they win by enough.

And for the record, pretty good chance Michigan not move ahead of Pitt.  An eight point win over the 70th ranked team at home probably won't do it.  And even if they jump Pitt, it'll be by such a small margin it won't change the above point that Pitt can move into the top 50 with a big win at ND.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

907_UM Nanook

February 26th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^

Looking at refs in the early B1G games, we won't have Szelc or Oglesby (OSU/Illinois) so that's good. If we have Kissinger I'll be pissed, as he had the Texas/Baylor game yesterday. Hoping for Pfeiffer/Riley/Kimble.

Joined: 04/01/2018

MGoPoints: 15301

907_UM Nanook

February 26th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^

Pretty frustrating to see Wisconsin as last in from the B1G on all of these TV bracketology reports (Lunardi/Palm/Decourcy) - all based on their Q1 wins (7). While Wisconsins NET is 70...only 1 ahead of OSU. Bottom line we have got to come to play today - especially on the boards.

Joined: 04/01/2018

MGoPoints: 15301

MNWolverine2

February 26th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^

MSU still moved up to 33 from 35 in the NET yesterday, despite the loss. Kind of a win/win. They like get to 30 with a road win over Nebraska. 
 

We want NW to win today, but not a blowout. Need Maryland to stay Q1. 
 

most of all - win the game!

Joined: 08/07/2017

MGoPoints: 3098

bronxblue

February 26th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^

If Michigan can close this stretch 2-1 they're in the tourney in all likelihood, and so at some point it doesn't matter how other teams do.  If anything, it might help fellow bubble teams beat out others but if they're 12-8 in a top-2 conference that's going to make the tourney.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171810

True Blue 9

February 26th, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^

Yea, it's really going to be more if we avoid Dayton or not at that point. 

I'm more interested in what happens if we finish 1-2 (which, sadly I think is somewhat likely). Can we win 2 in the Big Ten tourney? What kind of momentum will they have if they come into the tourney having lost their last two games?

Lots of questions. Going to be a fun/intriguing/nerve-wracking few weeks. 

Joined: 11/25/2012

MGoPoints: 7963

TruBluMich

February 26th, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^

I'd love to see the code for this because I wouldn't be shocked if there's a line that reads something like this for A&M's odds.  

if (team === 'Texas A&M') {odds = odds * 1.1} else if (team === 'Michigan') {odds = odds * .9}

A&M has had maybe one turn where they lost more than one from their expected territories won. They usually win 2 or more than what they are expected. Where as Michigan seems to lose around 2-5 more than expected. Last night was a welcome change and the map shows it.

 

Joined: 08/03/2011

MGoPoints: 22024

Jordan2323

February 26th, 2023 at 7:13 PM ^

Other than Michigan’s win, todays bubble watch didn’t go well. Still get to 19 and it’s gonna be hard to deny Michigan a spot. Seems like Michigan, Penn St and Wisconsin are battling for the 9th and 10th spots from the Bigten 

Edit: Rutgers comes back from 19 down. This one helps Michigan. 

Joined: 11/09/2013

MGoPoints: 48922

Team 101

February 26th, 2023 at 8:23 PM ^

O'Connell misses a key front end of a one and one with Rutger up 3.  Penn State had 14.8 to score.  Numerous chances but no luck.  RUTGER WINS!!!

Joined: 04/15/2013

MGoPoints: 38153

True Blue 9

February 26th, 2023 at 8:29 PM ^

  • Michigan with the OT win
  • MSU losses in a total collapse 
  • Fellow bubble teams Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Penn State with brutal losses 

Overall pretty damn good weekend, ladies and gentleman!  

Joined: 11/25/2012

MGoPoints: 7963