Stewart Mandel's 2009 CFB Prediction About Michigan
Stewart Mandel has a post up about his five predictions for 2009 in college football. One says that Fat Charlie will still be at Notre Dame in 2010.
But prediction #3 is about Michigan. Mandel predicts Tate Forcier (yes, mentioned by name), continuity, and experience will lead Michigan to at least a 5-game improvement in the standings next year.
For all of you counting at home, that would be at least 8 wins. Or, the number of wins Lloyd had in his last regular season as Michigan coach.
Here are eight wins for you:
Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame, unnamed FCS opponent, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Purdue.
The last four are Penn State, Little Brother, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Maybe one or two more wins in there. GO BLUE.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:05 PM ^
Sounds a little bold, but I like it.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:06 PM ^
I'll be happy with 6 wins. Thats where I'm setting MY bar at right now.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:14 PM ^
My bar's at 6, my hope is 8, and my fantasy is 10.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:07 PM ^
...the importance of continuity, experience and repetition.
And a good Quarterback.
Minnesota, with no offensive line talent and no running backs, had 7 wins this year.
Have a little faith.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:13 PM ^
I'll take that.....i dont care who the eight wins come against.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:21 PM ^
and much improved Qb play, along with a solid defensive scheme (read better secondary play here), my bar is set at 7 wins in the regular season. Actually, I think 8 wins is very doable. Minimum of 3-1 OOC and 4-4 in the B10 gets 7-5. Beating an average, overachieving Jimmah and stomping on Little Brother (who has no QB or running back) and you could get 8 or 9 wins. There could be a surprising loss somewhere on the schedule (like that's never happened) and an upset or two (it HAS happened) and we could be looking at a miraculous turnaround.
That is what Rich Rod is best at. His teams historically beat the odds.
You MUST Believe!
December 31st, 2008 at 2:33 PM ^
When I saw the schedule I thought 7-8 wins is very doable. Hopefully if that happens we can go bowling- I would like to actually go to it to cheer them on
December 31st, 2008 at 2:34 PM ^
Lloyd had 9 wins in his final season
December 31st, 2008 at 2:38 PM ^
...and that's why the post says 8 wins in Lloyd's last "regular season."
Number 9 was the Capital One Bowl, which I don't believe counts as the "regular season."
Box.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:36 PM ^
I just hope our defense can carry us against Ohio State. With their losses of Wells, Lauranitis, Freeman, Robiskie, Jenkins, etc. they will be vulnerable. (I hope.)
December 31st, 2008 at 2:36 PM ^
seems a rational expectation.
It was clear to me early in the season that this offense, if run correctly and efficiently, was unlike anything the Big Ten had ever seen. Unfortunately, Threet and Sheridan caused the offense to revert to bubble screens and running back sweeps to the short side of the field (I was predicting the play call repeatedly during the Northwestern game based on the spot of the ball on the hash marks).
Forcier's competence, and his seemingly boundless desire to get ready this off-season, will lead to a much more diverse offense. Think of Stonum, Hemingway, Odoms, Gallon, Matthews catching the slants, bubbles, go routes. Think of Minor, Shaw, McGu.........er, Toussaint, and Carlos Brown, (actually, Toussaint should redshirt with that depth) running the sweeps. Think of Grady fumbling. Think of a good to very good O-Line.
This fall will be fun and we'll all hear about a remarkable Rich Rod turnaround.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:39 PM ^
also, I wouldn't be so confident about beating Illinois and Iowa, but I do think Wisconsin is a gimme win.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:06 PM ^
If Shonn Greene goes to the draft, which is a distinct possibility, then I definitely like our chances against Iowa.
I think we may well see a weird loss early in the season (might lose to Western) if Tate is starting just out of growing pains, but by November they will be the team nobody wants to play, like Iowa was this year.
It's also entirely possible that Tate picks up the offense reasonably well and his accuracy carries the day and we beat all three of Western, Eastern and The Emu. I feel much better about our offensive line situation going into next year -- we'll have some experience, depth and competition, which should help the quality.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:45 PM ^
..without Vontae Davis....
December 31st, 2008 at 2:48 PM ^
There is no way to project how good Tate Forcier is going to be in his freshman season. After watching Ryan Mallett play, a five-star and the biggest raw talent in the country at quarterback, I am not confident at ALL in placing all our hopes on a frosh QB. Mallett was good when we needed him to be, but he fell apart in road games.
I think that he's going to spend at LEAST half the season on the bench. Let him push Threet in practice, fine, but Threet's experience from playing on the road, and playing from behind, make him the more ideal starter until proven otherwise.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:00 PM ^
I'd prefer a QB that excels in playing from in front.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:03 PM ^
If you've read any of my posts on this blog, you know I hate predicting what I'm going to have for lunch tomorrow, let alone how Michigan will do next year.
However, statistical analysis (and my cutting-edge dissection of Minnesota's turnaround this year) shows big improvements for teams from years 1 to 2 in new programs. Saban? Meyer? Tressel? Brewster? It's not a coincidence. I don't care whether it's Forcier, Threet, or a combo platter. Michigan will be markedly better next year because:
(1) the o-line will protect whatever QB is back there;
(2) the skill players will be better;
(3) everyone will be stronger (thanks Barwis);
(4) everyone will have 12 additional months in this offense; and
(5) either Threet in year two, or Forcier in year one, will be better than Threet / Sheridan in year one.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:05 PM ^
..and Threet was about 10 yards away from me, wearing a nifty Adidas sweatsuit. I'd prefer to talk about Sheridan's experience on the road, as he's actually won a road game as a starting QB at Michigan.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:06 PM ^
Not to attack you, but I wanted to point out Threet vs Penn State, and compare that to Sheridan vs Penn State. I don't think talking about Sheridan's anything unless it's clipboard holding skills is a very worthwhile activity to be honest.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:20 PM ^
..I don't take it personally and I want your best arguments.
You're right about the Penn State game. Sheridan was placed in a horrible position and completely bottled it.
And, playing in the sterile, climate-controlled Metrodome made Sheridan look like Chad Henne. Although Chad Henne in Metrodome in 2006 looked like Joe Montana.
Let's not completely disparage Sheridan, though. He walked on to Michigan, played here, gave it his all, and won a trophy game for this team in a year with 3 victories. My wife saw the joy on my face, and I saw the joy on the traveling Michigan support that day. It was a great day in a horrible year. I will think of that, and the Wisconsin win, when I think of 2008. And I thank Sheridan for the good memory in Minneapolis.
December 31st, 2008 at 8:06 PM ^
Threet played a damn good game at ND. Just because we lost doesn't mean he didn't perform well. He was about the least responsible for that loss as anyone.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:52 PM ^
Bigger quarterbacks take longer to develop mechanically.
December 31st, 2008 at 2:53 PM ^
hahah, Juice Williams and his 5,101 all purpose yards at Michigan Stadium say otherwise.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:03 PM ^
Let's just make a bowl game.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:08 PM ^
I want RR to describe the 2009 team as "my damn strong football team" in a Bo like manner
December 31st, 2008 at 3:18 PM ^
We could have easily had wins against NW, Utah, Toledo, and Purdue this year, based off of how close the games were until the final minute. That is 7 wins. With a more experienced team, they will hopefully find ways to close games out and win the ones they are supposed to.
December 31st, 2008 at 3:31 PM ^
2 plays in each of those games caused losses. Think about it.
To be honest, the margin of victory in each game was based on one screwed up play (the hook and ladder in Purdue, the INT in Toledo, the ref's botched out of bounds call on Warren's INT return against NW, a missed two-pointer against Utah).
Do we honestly here on this board think that Michigan will not improve their performance on at least 2 plays a game next year?
December 31st, 2008 at 3:42 PM ^
ask Jay
December 31st, 2008 at 3:45 PM ^
me do that.
December 31st, 2008 at 4:16 PM ^
If we can do these three things we'll definitely get to eight wins.
One. Be more efficient in our passing game. I can count on one finger where I felt that we put together a viable passing attack. Quarterback must be accurate.
Two. The offensive line takes a step or two forward. They seemed to start to gel some in the latter portion of the season. If they can keep up with this improvement then it will make a world of a difference in the offense. Can someone say 1,000 yard rusher Brandon Minor.
Three. The defense has to perform. The line must be as good as they were last year. The linebackers have to have a vendetta against runningbacks. They have to be obsessive in plugging holes. And the secondary...well hell, doesn't Charles Woodson have another year of eligibility? No?...Well then one or two of the guys coming in have to be productive for that secondary to work (i.e.) Barwis has to go back to the lab and frankenstein us a quality safety; that and D Warren has to have a comeback year after the regression.
And that my friends is how we'll do good. Granted, 1 and 3 are a tall order. But we've climbed mountains before. As a matter of fact, the last time Michigan studied climbing mountains they won a national championship.
December 31st, 2008 at 6:32 PM ^
On the first: exactly. Either 2nd year Threet, or 70% accurate Forcier, will probably make that improvement.
On the second: the competition with the 6 redshirt freshmen, the continuity, experience and familiarity with the program will be very good this year. Oh yeah, no McAvoy as well.
On the third: I think 9 months of Barwis and preparation will help the team improve. A 50th ranked defense will help this team win more games.
December 31st, 2008 at 8:12 PM ^
Agree about Purdue, Toledo and NW, but Utah clearly outplayed us. It was close because they shot themselves in the foot in the second half way worse than we did.
December 31st, 2008 at 4:41 PM ^
comment was meant for Bball thread. For the record, I say 7 wins.
December 31st, 2008 at 4:38 PM ^
for a while i had a hard time believing we would be much better next year, but 2 things changed my mind:
1. the fact that, as previously mentioned, we had a chance to win several more games and we were competitive for a while in most of our losses (pretty much all but ohio state)
2. the fact that beilein took a team of basketball players that seemed hopeless and turned the corner in one season
still though, 6 wins and i'll be happy. 7+ and i'm very happy
December 31st, 2008 at 4:53 PM ^
Ok.
He probably knows less about UM football than half the posters on this site. But you take love where you can find it.
December 31st, 2008 at 8:10 PM ^
But it's also his job to follow college football across the entire country, whereas we just hone in on UM. If he thinks we've got the stuff of an eight-win team, he's basing it against what he's seen elsewhere.
December 31st, 2008 at 5:42 PM ^
Next year our O-line is going to be a lot better. So we are going to be running the ball well.
December 31st, 2008 at 6:14 PM ^
If our secondary will get over trying to knock people over with a shoulder and learn how to wrap up and tackle. We WILL have more wins. Go back to 2007 and watch both long TD runs by Bennie Wells and you will see what I am talking about. 185 lb corner is not going to knock over a 235 lb back running with a full head of steam by bumping him with his shoulder.