Spring football open thread
The point here is not that some of your predictions are accurate in retrospect. The point is that you frequently go out of your way to convince everyone how amazing OSU and MSU will be and how bad Michigan will be while completely ignoring the other side of the argument. And for what purpose? Who are you serving by writing an encyclopedia on the potential greatness of MSU's defense or a 200-word post about how MSU's basketball losses won't be that significant?
I'm not suggesting that you become a Michigan cheerleader, but Christ, your posting history seriously reads like something from a rival fansite.
April 25th, 2015 at 10:45 PM ^
Sorry - I'll stick to the chorus of Harbaugh Harbaugh Harbaugh as the analysis of everything.
As an aside I dont think that defense will be great - it just is built perfectly for this conference. You can see it can be exploited quite readily by pass heavy offenses with good QBs. In the Pac 12 the system would not work. In the Big 10 it does. Considering 3/4 of their schedule is Big 10 I am just speaking to their challenges in this conference - and being a D that focus so much energy on stopping the run, in a run happy league - gives them some ability to offset the weakness in the secondary.
Shorter: Harbaugh Harbaugh Harbaugh.
There are at least two blatant MSU trolls on this thread, and even addressing one of them as such gets you negbanged, but we'll jump on alum96's objectivity? This board is tough to figure out sometimes.
Some people just are pessimistic. If we get Harbaugh, it's why not Belichick. If they score more points in their spring game, it's because we're a worse team. If they get a 4 star WR to commit there, they're kicking our butts in recruiting. If we get a 4 star WR, the rankings don't matter and their 2 star is better.
is obvious
I feel like we have this debate every time we talk about MSU; I think it's just going to be a sore spot for both of us.
I never said the offense was showing up the defense, but most analysis I've read about MSU in 2015 focuses on how the offense will likely take some of the pressure off of their defense, which again is replacing more and more core parts with talented-if-unproven players. They'll be fine defensively, but last year's defense was a step down from the year before, and both advanced metrics and simple scoreboard numbers showed that.
Cook is being talked up as a 1st rounder because people haven't looked at his tape. He's a competent college QB, but he struggles with pressure and MSU's line has kept him incredibly clean. That offensive line may be the best in the conference, and that's pretty damn impressive. But I'm not buying Cook being anything more than a slightly more mobile, stronger-armed Kurt Cousins, which is perfectly solid but not some 1st-rounder mega talent.
Nicholson is a very good player; people were shocked Hoke past on him. Chances are he would have come to UM had he been offered, so I'm not sure how much credit Dantonio gets for being the second choice. But again, results-based rankings and all mean kudos to Dantonio on that one.
Dantonio could absolutely find some decent corners, but let's not ignore the fact that he has now lost 2 1st-rounder corners in consecutive years, and nobody on that roster looks like a slam-dunk shutdown corner like Waynes and Dennard, unless you think Hicks is going to make dramatic improvements and Cox is going to take the next step you need. I don't think it'll be settled early on, and that means this defense could be succeptible to the break-but-don't-bend results we've seen in the past, especially without Drummond to clean up.
The defensive line should be very strong, but I'm not as high on Calhoun as others are. Rush was the true disruptor on that defensive line the past couple of years, and maybe McDowell makes a leap but he's still a true sophomore who was a little protected last year. The LBs should be fine, and I agree their run defense should be stout.
I do take issue with the argument that MSU's defense was dominant except against OSU, Oregon, and Baylor last year, and that because those offenses were great we should ignore how badly they shredded the unit. After those three teams, MSU didn'played one other offense in the top 50 (Nebraska), and the Cornhuskers were in that weird game at the end. Yes, they trounced IU, Maryland, PSU, and Rutgers, all teams with kinda-terrible offenses. Of the five semi-competent offenses they played (I'll throw in Maryland because they were 52nd in FEI), 3 of them blew MSU out of the water defensively, one kept it close and put up decent numbers on the road, and one MSU pretty much shut down.
I expect MSU to have a rough game against Oregon and Air Force, though I'm sure they'll beat AF and, at home, are the favorites against Oregon unless they just look like they haven't missed a beat (which might happen). They do have to go to UM, Nebraska, and OSU, and maybe PSU starts to figure it out at the end of the year. Thgey might split those games. So sure, 9 wins may be a bit low, but MSU is due a game or two they blow because that just happens, and with real questions on defense I'm just not sold they'll keep it rolling.
April 25th, 2015 at 11:00 PM ^
Bronx, fine points and thanks for outlining good discussion.
I agree 100% with you on Cook. Every QB struggles under pressure and if Cook had been behind PSU and UM's lines the last 2 years he would have looked like shit. He has had more passes dropped by DBs than any Qb I can remember in my life these past 2 years. So yes I think in the NFL he will face real pressure - the type he has not seen at MSU most games - and his balloon will burst. But unfortunately his OL has been excellent in pass protect most of his career there. And with an All American center and a 1st round LT in Conklin, along with experience (again multitude of 5th year SR types up and down that line) I don't know how much pressure he will face - or how many teams they play will cause him to get pressure. Brian Allen is their only young guy on the OL and that guy was picked first overall by their seniors for the spring game. I've stated in the past their D gets the attention (and Cook) but their OL transformation the past 2 years (it was awful in 2012) has been the real story in my book. Gave Langford huge holes, gives Cook all day to look like a genius. His completion % even with all that time sorta stinks IMO. So yes I agree with you at the NFL level he will have issues because he wont have all day like he has now, but all that matters for MSU discussion is what Cook does at MSU level.
You actually make my point about the crap offenses in the league when you discuss how their D did vs the other 9 teams. That's a benefit for MSU and everyone else in the conference - playing a lot of horrid offenses. Really in the other 9 games purdue was the only team to give that defense anything to think about. Nebraska came back at the end in a game that looked over 3 quarters in but it was a lot of funky stuff - they dominated UM, Rutgers, Maryland, PSU and Indiana - along with the 3 non Oregon non conf games. So yes that is a lot of bad offenses they faced. But they didnt let those offenses get off the mat. Most Big 10 teams played a similar array of crap offenses.
To your last paragraph - people will laugh - but I actually think that Western game is a major trap game. Speaking of shit QBs they face, Western's might be the 3rd best QB they play all year. Reminds me some of Appleby at Purdue who gave them all sorts of trouble last year. So if they give him any time he might actually be able to exploit that back 4. That said, I dont know enough about Western's defense to know if it can slow down MSU's offense but maybe since it is early in the year and their running game may take time to find its footing and they could struggle some if Cook has an off day.
It is difficult for me to find less than 10 wins because the one thing Dantonio has really cleaned up these past few years is not losing games they have more talent than the other team. They don't go and lose to an Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland type team - so hopefully they have a real stumble like that this year. I see 10-2; we'll see.
April 25th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^
Western's offense will score on MSU for sure. Jarvion Franklin, Zach Terell, and their wide receivers are pretty good too. I don't know how good WMU's defense will be.
Largely agree with your sentiment; I think we are mostly on the same wavelength regarding their offense and defense.
I think I came across a bit more pessimistic about their defense than I intended - they do have a great front 7, and if they have competent corners they'll do fine against everyone on their schedule save OSU and maybe Oregon. I guess my point was that two years ago that defense was great - hard stop. Put them against Oregon last year and that game is a lot closer. Last year they were good against the crap offenses they played, but it wasn't nearly as dominant a unit. This year, again, their schedule seems tailor-made for dominating games against the dregs of the conference and some tougher games at the top of the offensive spectrum. I don't know much about Western, but Purdue gave them lots of trouble with a mobile QB, though if I remember correctly that was a bit of a janky game as well. the Nebraska game I'll admit was a bit of a cheap shot; that game was over until about midway through the 4th when Nebraska just caught some breaks.
But to that point, MSU has survived lots of close games; had Baylor stopped playing offense in the 4th quarter of the bowl game, they wouldn't have come back and that would have been 3 big losses on their season. I guess that's my issue with MSU's continued dominance - they have talent and good coaching, but they rose when historical powers were mostly down (save OSU outside of that one year). PSU and UM have more talent and while the jury is out on Franklin (I've always thought him more sizzle than steak as a coach but a dynamite recruiter), they look to be on the upswing. They've also missed the recent Wiscy teams in the other division, but they did play well earlier in the decade against the Badgers so who knows. And no matter how good a coach Dantonio is, teams lose games they shouldn't. The fact MSU hasn't had a game like that since, I don't know, that weird 2011 year, seems unsustainable. That's why I guess I'm down on them winning another 10+ games.
MSU is a very good football team, but they have holes and they'll never recruit well enough to offset talent deficiencies. That's what you see - teams like OSU and Oregon just out-athlete them, and Baylor really should have blown them out of the water. It wasn't much of a game for 3 quarters, and I absolutely believe other top offenses like you see in the Pac-12 and Big-12 would have done the game. MSU has been helped in no small part by the terribleness of the Big 10 offensively, and so that's why I'm interested to see how they manage when teams like UM, OSU, and PSU start rolling out talented units with NFL-caliber players. I'm probably with you with 10 wins, but at some point they should take a step back, and maybe it's this year when they have to replace so many parts of that secondary.
3 pm eastern time he's deciding
Ace sez FLorida
With the needs on defense and 5 offensive players already committed (incl 2 RBs) can't see us having room for a 3rd RB.
We do need LB,S,CB,DE in that order for depth and starting jobs. And we need WR's because we know that core well you seen what happend.
but but but I thought the Crystal's Balls were saying Michigan?
In reality, not a surprise he didn't choose Michigan.
The kid was supposed to announce at 3. He scheduled a press conference and everything.
Bleacher Report posts his descision at 2:45.
That presser going to be something ti watch for
oh yay
Cook aiming for the seats right now. And someone needs to tell their kicker hitting the flagpole gets you zero points.
holy shit their kicker sucks
Geiger (starter) is out for spring with hip injury. Not watching the game (just came in to read MGo for a minute from working out in the yard) but I assume you are watching some backup.
...you're totally watching.
No, in this case I didn't. I did want to see the OSU game because I am less familiar with their squad than MSU's (being in state), but I totally forgot about it last weekend.
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Why would any self-respecting Wolverine be completely uninterested in how one of our major rivals looks like?
Yeah, I know—around here, aggressive ignorance is a sign of real Michigan fandom.
Meh. Spring games don't offer much insight into the overall strength of a football team.
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April 26th, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
MSU picked up WR Justin Layne today.
They need to get to work on defensive recruiting, but a skill position haul so far of Layne, Cameron Chambers, deWeaver, and Abdul Adams is very solid.
They look decent. Cook looks sharp, but he did make a terrible throw like he usually does. Not as impressed as I was with their Sprinig game last season. They ahve a very good front 7 and good safeties, but their corners are still a work inprogress. Offensively, Cook is good, that London looks like a servicable RB, I think they'll miss Langford.
Do they look like a potential top 10 or top 5 team? Maybe, but they look further behind than where they were last Sprinig.
Which I'm sure will be in time for Big Ten season.
George Blaha's hair looks extra painted on today.
48,000 my ass lol
It's really amazing to me that spring game attendance numbers are now things people care about. Across the board.
It's the Time of Possession of attendance statistics.
They cannot say anything about our score in our spring game but theres was bad as well.
They cannot say anything about our score in our spring game but theres was bad as well.
Harbaugh 1, Dantonio 0
Why do so many of you mention the attendance numbers? Who gives a fuck? It is a stupid and pointless final spring practice. The spring game attendance has no baring whatsoever on the season and how dedicated the fans are.
Why do you complain about so many MGoBloggers mentioning the attendance numbers? Who gives a fuck? It is stupid and pointless to complain about what others post, just like it is stupid and pointless to downvote every thread about any sport other than Michigan Football and Michigan Men's Basketball. Your complaints and downvotes and overall negativity have no bearing whatsoever on the seasons of those Michigan sports teams and how dedicated the fans of those sports are.
and voltron was/is achilles?