SIAP: Yahoo sports analysis of JJ's strengths and weaknesses
Pretty long read for a single prospect. Didn't include all the numbers but highlighted "throwing to the left" as a weakness, and wondering how much of the extra weight he put on (202 at Michigan, 219 at combine) could actually stick. He turned 21 after the national championship game (!!!) so maybe there's lots room for adding permanent weight.
Whoever "takes the chance" on JJ will come out a big winner. My $.02
Before the 2023 draft, I was hoping the Lion's would get a chance to draft JJ this year (2024).
But since they took Hendon Hooker there's probably 0% chance of that happening, sadly. But also with the Lion's more advanced timeline, drafting JJ (a developmental QB) in the 1st (or even the 2nd) doesn't make a lot of sense.
JJ is a first round NFL QB all day, every day. and he will naturally hang on to weight, good weight, as he gets a little older and as he has only football to play, no more 'playing skool'.
I really want JJ to go to a team that will take the time to develop his talent. He will be a star if he gets the chance.
Denver, under the tutelage of Sean Payton would be a great fit for JJ
Denver seems like the the team that gets him in a plurality of scenarios, though I"m not sure how stable things are there given Payton's first year and the "yikes" vibe given off by the QB prospects when asked about their interview with the Broncos.
Sean Payton oversaw a bounty program in which members of a union were incentivized to intentionally injure members of the same union.
Which, considering he was a scab during the 1982 strike, is 0% surprising.
That piece of shit can go fuck himself with a rusty nail for the rest of recorded time.
Does anyone else see Williams as a near-certain bust? Does some spectacular stuff but doesn’t seem great down-to-down and strikes me as a real head case.
The main reason he'll bust is because he'll be going to a team with no o-line to protect him. Good o-lines elevate any QB an entire tier.
If by some miracle he ends up on a team with a good o-line (Bears take him and majorly upgrade their o-line, for example), I think he'll be fine-to-great.
I would not go as far as "near-certain", but I would trade out of the first pick and stockpile talent if I were the Bears GM. I think Williams is below average for a #1 overall QB, and the apparent immaturity would scare me off.
I’m not suggesting big time “Mandarich” level bust. But, over-rated does come to mind. His backup played very impressively in their bowl game, which makes me think of in-game execution and decision making. Williams did not put up huge numbers against better defenses. His fingernail painting strikes me as immature. He appears elusive and can run.
The Bears have a big decision - IF they can trade the pick and get enough to address OL issues (that they’ve faced for years) - it would seem to be worth it to me.
I wonder what kind of a leader Williams is - is he more Brady or Rodgers? I’d bet on Rodgers.
I've got him as a bust. All his problems are between his ears. No toughness when the game gets hard. Some headaches for a locker room, like the nail painting insults at the opponent.
That said I also predicted Mahomes would be a bust ...
Did they watch him throw to the left? Unless it is my imagination we saw one or two that were characterized as NFL level throws.
One or two isn't enough to make a proper judgement, this is from the article
On throws of 10 or more air yards and outside the numbers over his career, comparing his throws to the right and left are pretty drastic: McCarthy’s completion percentage drops from 56.2% to 42.6%, his quarterback efficiency goes from a eye-watering 205.4 to 144.2, his dropback success rate from a crisp 56.2% to a pedestrian 42.6%, and his first downs per attempt from 53.4% to 39.7%.
~15% drop in percentage rates. I can't say I've done enough film review of all of JJ's throws to say whether it's correctl. Maybe another ambitious mgoblogger-can write a diary about it.
My guess, and it’s only a guess based on memory, is that we’re seeing an effect of his natural inclination to leak out of compressing pockets to his right, and his ability to make successful throws doing that. And that’s good, frankly; suggests a maturity to know that doing a wild spin and roll to the left probably won’t see much success.
I think JJ would thrive under Mike McDonald and my Seahawks.
I like that fit actually. If MM and Schneider are on the same page re: defense first mentality and they need a guy who doesn't make mistakes and can be a playmaker when necessary that would be ideal.
Good analysis tbh, and the videos are helpful.
IMO, JJ needs a Jordan Love situation. Give him 2-3 years to finish developing his man body and address the mechanical issues. After that, you’re probably looking at a top 8 QB.
I agree. Too many of these guys are thrown into the fire right away and it can ruin their careers. I know they all want to play right away, but landing in a spot where they can grow into the role should be the ideal situation.
That said, if he is going to go early and expected to start year one, I hope it is my hometown Falcons... because they really need a good QB.