Season Expectations Based on "Rank the Enemy"
I liked the "Rank the Enemy" series and was curious how it could be translated into team performance.
For those who are interested, here is what all of the rankings look like visually:
Since Michigan was not selected for a specific position in most cases, I took the average position estimate and slotted them in. The reality is, it is hard to glean much from this other than what teams are glaringly at the top and bottom in talent.
Sooooo...I decided to apply a little math to create a ranking for offense & defense and team total. Those familiar with a C&E matrix will vaguely recognize some of the methodology.
The scoring is based on a 9, 3,1 scale. (9 being critically important, 3 being important, 1 being less important). On offense I believe the game begins and ends with the O-line and QB. The WR's play an important role and running backs have become less of a factor. That doesn't mean Wisconsin isn't going to churn out another back with big stats, it's that I believe Wisconsin's success to do that is more predicated on the quality of the O-Line and QB play more so than it is the RB's themselves.
On defense I believe the DL dictates a significant amount in how the overall defense performs. I.e. A great DL can mitigate poor LB & DB play, but great DB's & LB's can't overcome a weak line.
The chart looks like this:
When calculated out (team position * rank/score of position importance) this is what the Offense/Defense/Total Team scores add up to:
Based on the straight numbers, Michigan would go 7-5. Michigan's total score being 200, any team score below 200 is a win, any team score above is a loss. OSU, PSU, and Wisc look like pretty sure losses. OSU & PSU score better than Michigan significantly on both Offense & Defense. Wisconsin is very close on defense, but significantly ahead on offense. It's also a road game.
The two closer scores are Washington & Indiana. Those are both home games. There is a chance both of those flip and the record becomes 9-3.
Based on these scores, no team below Michigan's score should be close enough to pull off an upset.
7-5 with a possibility of 9-3 is what many here have predicted. I wanted to see if the numbers backed it up. According to "Rank the Enemy" they do.
August 31st, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
We're going 10-2 with a win over Ohio St.
Fight me
August 31st, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
When & where big boy???
Of course, if that actually happens, I will show up to kiss you instead of fight you.
August 31st, 2021 at 5:10 PM ^
I like your thinking
August 31st, 2021 at 4:40 PM ^
Does this take into account the strengths of a teams coaching staff?
August 31st, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
I think that is a good suggestion for next year's version. (hopefully there will be one)
Ranking Special Teams would also be good. I was hoping to see that coming as well as it is an important part of the team also, but today's post said the series was done.
August 31st, 2021 at 5:19 PM ^
Ranking special teams is hard because ranking kickers is a crap shoot. Nebraska's kicker was first team all B1G last year and was 20/20 on extra points. Then he went on to miss two extra points on Saturday.
Quinn Nordin made a habit of getting benched here at Michigan. He has now made the Patriots roster.
Kickers. IDK man.
August 31st, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
Many thanks to Alex Drain for doing this series.
Many apologies to Alex Drain for calling it "Rank the Enemy" instead of "The Enemy, Ranked".
August 31st, 2021 at 6:15 PM ^
Or The Rank Enemy
August 31st, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
Or Rank the Enemas
August 31st, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^
If we beat Washington I put Wisconsin at about 40/60, Penn State 50/50, Indiana 75/25.
If we lose to Washington: 5/95 vs Wisconsin, 20/80 Penn St, and 40/60 Indiana
August 31st, 2021 at 7:02 PM ^
I don't really see it that way, because in reality it is perfectly reasonable for teams to improve over the course of the season, and sometimes drastically; especially with a young team installing a new defense.
To put it in other words, I think it's entirely reasonable to think that the Michigan team we see in week 2 will not look like the Michigan team we see to some degree in week 5 or even moreso in week 9, 11 etc., etc.
Either way, no matter what happens I am not anticipating this team should be favored going into Happy Valley. I also don't think the outcome of what happens in week 2 against Washington will tell us much about what to expect going into the PSU game, or IU for that matter.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:48 PM ^
I mean in theory yes, but Michigan typically isn't a team that gets better as the season goes on. Whatever flaws that show up early are flaws that remain. They are generally better at home, so a loss to Washington at home probably means Wisconsin and Penn State on the road are gonna be losses too.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:25 PM ^
This guy watches Michigan football
August 31st, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
7-5 at best.
August 31st, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
Like the approach with your analysis. To me I think this provides the data to backup what most of us are feeling about the outlook of the season; realistically 9-3 is probably the best outcome one could reasonably forecast with the added help of going 2-0 in the coin flip games. Indiana and Washington seem like those coin flip games.
Harbaugh and his staff - most notably his previous defensive staff - have put this year's team in a pretty precarious situation. I think most reasonable fans realize Michigan is squarely back in a rebuild situation.. that is rebuilding what basically was built, then broken the first six years under Jim. He's now given an opportunity to fix it, but he basically has zero margin for error as he digs out from under the cratering hole of recruiting and personnel decisions that were made on the defensive side of the ball while Brown was here all while installing a new defense, and the half hearted attempts to modernize the offense.
Michigan is in a very strange spot. They have some really good players on both sides of the ball. They also haven't established a consistent identity on offense, and have a bunch of solid-to-very-good defensive depth at 9 of the 11 positions on defense.. and the remaining 2, and perhaps most critical, are an empty closet past the starters... I don't know how you win a lot of football games under that dynamic. In a season where there is going to be zero tolerance for unexpected losses, it seems like this is an impossible task for any coach to achieve with how this roster is cobbled together.
If it were me in that situation, from a coaches perspective... sell the eye test. Yes, the poor roster management and lack of emphasis on recruiting has made it next to impossible to have a successful season by the standards of the program; and that can't be fixed in one night. So demonstrate smart, clever game planning, the willingness to open the throttle with the play book and take chances. Allow this team to punch above their weight class, and if you're going to go down, go down swinging.
If this team, half way through the season, turtles back into their shell with faux-read/RPO and play-action pass on 3rd and 8 on offense. And get's bludgeoned to death on defense, Harbaugh is going to axed and he'll deserve it. Show everybody you're ready to cut the breaks and take some real chances - even if it means you might fail spectacularly - and you might just get to keep your job.
August 31st, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
I couldn’t agree more with basically everything you wrote. The roster mismanagement or whatever you want to call it leaves no room for injuries at a few key positions, with DL being the thinnest. Listening to the defensive preview podcast today was most depressing. Like, if Mazi gets injured, we’re screwed and for that matter we are relying on Mazi Smith, a guy who has barely played, to suddenly just be really good.
It’s a rebuild where we have to sell hope, take chances, and hope that a lot of bounces go our way. If the bounces go our way, 9-3 is still probably the ceiling. Let’s hope this team can stay healthy, show improvement throughout the season and win some close games that maybe they shouldn’t.
August 31st, 2021 at 6:24 PM ^
Yeah, that defensive line depth is an issue I just don't see how Michigan gets around. You can't out-scheme a lack of beef up the middle, as Don Brown's defenses have demonstrated over and over again the past two seasons.
So rather than subject your team to a slow bleed from gut punches up the middle, dial-up some heavy run blitzes, make some in game decisions that your opponent would not expect you to make based on their film study. Yeah, you might get smoked on PA over the top, but what's the alternative.. give up a 14 play 80 yard touchdown drive that eats up 9 minutes of clock and demoralizes your defense?
Michigan will not have the luxury of doing what they like to do, knowing that their opponent sees it coming and just simply can't stop it. JH and staff are going to have to demonstrate this season that they can out-coach and beat some of the teams where the talent discrepancy isn't decidedly in their favor.
His best bet is to bring back 2016 Jim, burn the boats (as Beilein and JB'sHM said above), and let it rip; whatever happens happens. If we see that, I am more open to another year of Harbaugh, even if they can only squeeze 7 wins out of this season.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
I think the game plans have been fine. The qb's need to be coached up or have better eyes and trust what they're seeing instead of predetermined reads. I've seen many well designed plays to get the speed in space to see it wasted by poor qb decisions.
Again hoping Cade has a good head on his shoulders and can process what's happening fast to make the right reads and get the ball to players in space.
I think we see what happens as the end result of the play and don't always see everything that's there for the taking.
August 31st, 2021 at 5:07 PM ^
Weren't we all told THERE WILL BE NO MATH?
August 31st, 2021 at 6:02 PM ^
Sorry Rob, math always rules.
Aren't the scores of games math?
Are you advocating Champions of Life or participation trophies?
I know you're joking!
August 31st, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
Good job. Does this mean Michigan doesn't have to play the games?
August 31st, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
I applaud the effort, but anytime you do math and the math says Wisconsin's defense is going to be MAC level, you need to redo your math because that never happens.
August 31st, 2021 at 5:39 PM ^
6.5 wins. (Bowl game is a toss up).
August 31st, 2021 at 6:03 PM ^
The bowl game is a tie?
August 31st, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
MSU as the third worst opponent, right before IU, is a recipe for another disaster. That team is the hardest one to judge given the turnover.
August 31st, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
I think Maryland is a possible trap game. I think Ohio is a better matchup for us than Penn State. By which I mean we will lose both, but I do think we will be competitive in both. I think we may beat Indiana but lose to Maryland. If the offense clicks - and I don't think it's *that* much of an if - we could/should be competitive in every game. But I still see this as an 8 win team, 6 losses more likely than 10 wins, but batshit crazy 10 wins entirely within the realm of probable.
8-4, with all 4 losses being close, losses to Ohio, Penn St, Maryland, Wisconsin. Close wins over Indiana and Washington.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^
Maryland would have kicked the shit out of Michigan last season. Their offense was primed to drop 40+ on Michigan's defense. Real curious to see how that game shakes out this season given its the trappiest trap game I've seen in a while on the road wedged between PSU and OSU.
August 31st, 2021 at 6:01 PM ^
That seems somewhat aligned with oddsmakers who set the O/U on wins at 7.5. ESPN's FPI projects 6.9 wins.
8-4 is fairly optimistic given the many question marks we have (Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State are all very tall tasks). Hopefully, this season pleasantly surprises.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:56 PM ^
8-4 is where I'm at. Penn State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin feel like losses, Washington and Indiana feel like coin flips where they go 1-1.
Alternatively, there's a world where none of these changes work, the wheels fall all the way off, and they lose their final 4-5 games to @MSU, Indiana, @PSU, @Maryland, and Ohio State.
August 31st, 2021 at 6:27 PM ^
Based on these scores, no team below Michigan's score should be close enough to pull off an upset.
As Cassandra said in Wayne's World...
Yeah, and if a frog had wings it wouldn't bump its ass when it hopped.
Obviously teams with less talent upset teams with more talent from time to time. This can happen for a variety of reasons. Some of them are mental such as taking a team for granted, looking past a team before a big game, or a let down after a big game. Sometimes it's a matchup problem that one team is able to take advantage of. Think of OSU WR's in the slot against UM in 2018 or Purdue's Rondale Moore vs OSU in 2018. Neither defense had an answer. The score did not reflect the team's talent differential. To the point, Maryland is a tricky spot for several reasons. One, they are on the road. Two, they are sandwiched between PSU and OSU...after PSU and before OSU. And three, they have a talented QB that could be a matchup problem for UM. I think the Maryland game, despite the talent differential, will be a difficult game that UM could drop.
August 31st, 2021 at 6:59 PM ^
By the same token, I think the Wisconsin game could be competitive for this reason as well. Yes it's in Camp Randall - but after they'll play Notre Dame in Chicago, and their season open is Penn State. We matchup ok with them - we have an excellent set of receivers against a decent secondary, and a potentially good OL against a not bad DL, and while our CBs are bad, I think we could score a whole lot. But I still expect to lose. But also to be very entertained!
August 31st, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
Agreed. Hopefully it's not a night game.
August 31st, 2021 at 6:29 PM ^
7-5. Matt Campbell soon come.
But since this is Michigan football they will do the worst thing for the program and go 8-4 with at least 2 of the 4 being blowouts. They win the bowl to go 9-4 just to make us Soup zealots eat shit for 8 months. Michigan craters in 2022 and we are forced to hire a much lesser coach.
August 31st, 2021 at 6:34 PM ^
Of course 7-5 to 9-3 is the range unless Harbaugh can make a system and get his players to exceed their individual rankings.
Getting a 4 star player no to "mail it in" and play a 3 star OR getting that 4 star to have the game of his career like a 5 start - these make a great coach.
August 31st, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Cade McNamara being ranked behind anyone from Northwestern is laughable. What’s even more laughable is Cade and JJ being ranked behind anyone from Northwestern. What’s even more laughable is Cade and JJ being ranked behind Taylor, the ticking time bomb, Martinez. So with that said I don’t take this very seriously. No offense to the OP. I don’t even think I need to continue my arguments past this. And yes I know the OP did not do these rankings.
August 31st, 2021 at 7:34 PM ^
Terrific post. I’m leaning towards 8-4 myself.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:46 PM ^
This is a make or break season for Harbaugh. Beat Ohio State, he keeps his job. Lose to Ohio State again?
Well... bye.
September 1st, 2021 at 12:39 AM ^
Just an absolutely asinine take.
September 1st, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^
Someone has posted this to start the season for probably 3 years now.
September 1st, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
Our history shows we almost never beat better teams
7-5
History also shows we like to stub our toes to lesser talented teams at least 1 time a season
6-6
History also says we like to finish all seasons 0-2 and rarely win bowl games
6-7
And there you have it!