Scenario: Big 10 East 3 way tie

Submitted by preed1 on October 21st, 2022 at 12:30 PM

The only “likely” way that there will be a three-way tie for the Big Ten east division is for Penn State to beat Ohio State, Ohio State to beat Michigan, and for all 3 to win out giving all 3 a 8-1 conference record.

* BEAT OHIO AND WIN OUT and it’s that easy.  But since it’s a slow week for the bye week let’s look at the scenario of a three-way tie.  

5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
               (a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 – East 1 would be the representative.

Michigan non-division opponents 5-5 record Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois

Nebraska remaining schedule- Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa

Iowa remaining schedule- Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Illinois remaining schedule- Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, Northwestern

Ohio State non-division opponents 3-7 record Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern

Wisconsin remaining schedule- Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota

Iowa remaining schedule- Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Northwestern remaining schedule- Maryland, Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois

Penn State non-division opponents 5-5 record Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern

Purdue remaining schedule- Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, Indiana

Minnesota remaining schedule- Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, Wisconsin

Northwestern remaining schedule- Maryland, Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois

Buy Bushwood

October 21st, 2022 at 3:05 PM ^

Doubtful, but a very different matchup than UM.  Not nearly the running threat and may play somewhat more to PSU's defensive strengths.  Plus, that's a hard stadium to win in.  The problem is that PSU's offense sucks.  So it would really take an miracle performance from Clifford.  Could happen, but maybe 10% chance.  

Oh, and then there's Frames Janklin, so really there's no way. He's only beaten OSU once and it was a fluke and with probably his best team.  

CompleteLunacy

October 21st, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^

I mean...no...but Penn State does tend to keep games close with them. Even last year it was a 3-point game heading into the 4th quarter before OSU clinched the win. If they can get some of that horseshoe-up-their-ass luck like in 2016, and Clifford goes off on their "improved" defense, maybe they can pull off an upset. Probably not. But maybe! 

 

1VaBlue1

October 21st, 2022 at 1:15 PM ^

I don't think PSU will beat OSU.  However.  PSU's defensive strength is pass defense - and they have (probably, maybe) the league's best corner and another very good one.  If they can keep OSU mortal, it will give Clifford something to play for.  At home in front of a probable white out crowd of ~100,000.  A bit of rabbit's foot luck might make a difference.  I mean, Frames can't be much worse than Day, can he?

1VaBlue1

October 21st, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^

Looks to me like Michigan's West opponents have a more than reasonably good chance of being better than OSU's opponents, and UM already beat the living shit out of PSU.  So I don't really care if PSU beats OSU and that crapstain of a finish comes to pass.  Michigan will own the tie-breaker and play in the B1GCG against whatever stray kitten the West offers up for sacrifice.

OSU can cry about the 'backdoor' entry to the BTCG.  Don't care...  If PSU does somehow win that game, the UM-OSU outcome will (more than likely) already be decided.  UM wins, win or lose.

I'm good with that.

Mr. Elbel

October 21st, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^

Illinois might not lose a game besides against us. Purdue will be their biggest threat, which is still hilarious to me. But all of those wins would probably give us the tiebreaker in this scenario. The other two teams having played northwestern really hampers them.

RXwolverine

October 21st, 2022 at 12:45 PM ^

Beating ohio state this season is far more important than getting to the big ten title game and i will explain why. We need to close the gap with them. Beating them last season was the first step . Unfortunately the perception is still ohio state is the big tens best. If we beat them this season in columbus that perception changes significantly. Everyone gets one lucky win sometimes but winning 2 years in a row with one being on the road against another elite osu team that is losing a lot next season will make us the favorite going into 2023. Even tho perception means squat when the season starts its huge on the recruiting trail. Its difficult to promise high school kids team success during the offseason when you have nothing to show for it and your team is not playing. But when you have recent previous success it makes that job a heck of a lot easier. High school kids have a very short memory and success from 5+ years ago doesnt mean shit to most of them

BuckeyeChuck

October 21st, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^

Yes, 2 in a row makes it at least even.

If I can compare to 20 years ago, OSU won in '01 & '02. It sure didn't feel like OSU owned the rivalry; it was just nice not to have a new losing streak to Michigan get started the year after winning one. (Was also a huuuge relief to not have another undefeated season ruined by Michigan for once.)

Michigan won in '03 and it looked like an even rivalry that would feature a lot of back-n-forth. OSU won in surprise fashion in '04, which made it 3 out of 4, but it still didn't feel like OSU owned the rivalry.

It wasn't until after OSU won in AA in '05 to make 4 out of 5 did I feel like OSU took back the rivalry.

NittanyFan

October 21st, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^

My attitude: you win 2 in a row, that in a way "validates" the previous victory. 

One win at occasional spots in a series can always be written off, by the team that is winning more often, as a "random one-off."

If we're being honest, that was U-M fans attitude as regards OSU in the 2002 offseason, and as regards MSU in the 2009 offseason.  2002 & 2009 really changed the dynamic of those series.  For another series - if PSU had (sigh, the saddest words of word and pen, what might have been) won that 2017 game at Columbus, they would have finally had two in a row versus OSU and potentially really changed that series' dynamic.

From 1983-2001 (19 years!), OSU never won 2 in a row versus U-M.  Now it's 20+ years the other way.  It was an even longer stretch (1968-2007) for MSU versus U-M.