SB Nation thinks Penn State is the next Clemson
PSU is in a very similar spot to us. Both programs have recently proven they can be quite good, but can they take it to the next level. Would still put my money on us over them because of Harbaugh/Brown vs Franklin.
Not to be that guy but I don't think Michigan has really "proven" it under Harbaugh. Still haven't won a ranked game on the road since 2006, rival record isn't there, etc. While Penn State has won the B10, played the Rose Bowl, etc. I think we'll get there but we shockingly haven't had the success that Franklin has had.
I totally agree with you.
It's easy to hammer Franklin but, at this point, his track record at PSU might surpass Harbaugh's at UM. The step back at UM last year was somewhat predictable given the youth but there was no excuse for the lack of development along the O line. Harbaugh has to own that as Drevno made no progress at all in that area and the hiring of Frey last year was simply befuddling.
And the promised QB "whispering" has largely yet to have taken root.
It appears the staff issues have been addressed but who is going to be the OC this year? Harbaugh himself?
The jury is out IMO. If not for the hiring of Dr. Brown, Harbaugh would be in deep kimchi right now.
Harbaugh did well with weak QBs in his first two years. Last year he couldn't keep any of them healthy because of the aforementioned O-Line problems, but let's not forget what he did with ruddock and 1st year speight.
Winning cures all. A couple freak things go differently (or go exactly the same and get called properly), and this isn't even a conversation.
But they didn't.
Even if it weren't a matter of being that close, I see the program addressing all of the problems in a meaningful way.
Winning is the only true remedy, so we'll keep having this conversation until the remedy comes.
The place where I think we need to put our foot down is that we have absolutely every reason to expect that the remedy is coming, and perhaps in a very big way.
I expect to see it this year, and I'm unwilling to deny myself the joy of that optimism just because of the things that went wrong the last couple years.
I look forward to when we no longer have this conversation.
I'm pretty sure there's no "might surpass" in this conversation.
Franklin's record absolutely does surpass Harbaugh's.
Why? Simple.
Harbaugh has a win % of 71.2%. Franklin's win % is 68.2%. So they're almost identical win/loss records but Franklin has beaten OSU and won the B1G Championship.
It doesn't get more simple than that really.
Yup.
Franklin's PSU when saddled with incumbent golden boy Christian Hackenberg? 7-6, 7-6.
Franklin's PSU once he moved to full spread? 11-3, 11-2, B1G champs, Rose Bowl & Fiesta Bowl.
And they're recruiting at an elite level. They're not going away. Franklin went 9-4 twice in 3 seasons with Vanderbilt (6-7 his first year there). The only other time in the entire history of Vandy football that they won 9 games were 1904 & 1915. He's gotten incredible results. It's a Don Brown level of before-and-after, only with wins and losses instead of defensive ranking.
I'm not afraid of Penn State. But the "Field Goal Franklin hahaha" days probably aren't coming back anytime soon.
That's true, but he also hired Joe Moorhead, who was a home run and a half. We'll see how Moorhead's replacement does.
By the way, James Franklin left Maryland after they named him coach in waiting over Ralph Friedgen, then the next year hired Randy Edsall. Who by the way did not retain his OC at Maryland or bring his DC from UConn. The OC? Joe Moorhead. The DC? Don Brown.
Yes the Moorhead hire was very helpful, mostly imo it was the scheme he brought more than anything. Moving to that spread RPO offense really shifted PSU into another gear more so than their old stuffy power offense they were trying to run.
So really, all Moorhead's replacement has to do is keep doing the same thing and theoretically they should be good.
Very interesting staff facts about Maryland. +1 for that.
Moorhead is not a non-factor. I have the utmost respect his coaching acumen. But his replacement will be running a form of the same system with pieces recruited and taught to fit that system. That's not the case with what they had in Hackenberg.
Maybe new-OC guy (gotta learn his name) will be a bust. But he's got arguably better pieces than Moorhead had and a kick-ass blueprint to work from.
He’s got talent, but better pieces than Barkley and Geisicki? No way
That's absurd. If what you;re saying is true, no one would ever both hiring coaches when they can hire their assistants. Ummm..every Bill Belichek assistant would love to have a word. How do Saban's assistants do against him? Meyers? Look at Helfrich in Oregon...who on the defensive staff can do what Don Brown can do?
They'll take a step back, there;s a lot of revisionist history. He (barely) won at Vandy winning 9 games twice, but he beat 1 ranked opponent in 4 years. His next ranked win was over the 2016 OSU squad. He's a really good recruiter, and that may be enough, but if you think losing Moorehead will be inconsequential to their offense, then I wonder why you think he was even hired in the first place?
Guy. What are you talking about?
You spent an entire post talking about how it's not Belichick's assistants, it's Belichick. It's not Meyer's assistants, it's Meyer. It's not Saban's assistants, it's Saban. And all of those examples lead you to... it's not Frankin, it's all Moorhead? You just gave me a half dozen examples of why your own conclusion is stupid.
Regardless, it looks like you misread my post. I said Moorhead is NOT a non-factor. Poorly worded, I admit, but it seems you read the opposite.
My point is that Moorhead arrived to a roster built for spread. The problem pre-Moorhead is that they were stuck with 5-star, freshman sensation Hackenberg who had no ability to run what they wanted. People are acting like PSU is going to revert to thrown screen passes into the stands and getting sacked every down. They're not. They now have a blueprint of how this offense is supposed to run and the roster built to execute it. Maybe new OC Ricky Rahne (who got a tutorial in Moorhead spread offense the past two years) won't be able to think on the fly in-game as well, but their base attack should be just as dangerous as it was last year.
Meanwhile, people here want to make themselves feel better and talk like post-Joe Moorhead PSU is going to revert to the Christian Hackenberg debacle. It isn't.
Discount his Vandy success all you want. Base it on ranked games. Base it on teams that wear the color purple. He's the most successful Vandy football coach in the last 70 years. Nobody has ever won more games in a single Vanderbilt football season than the 9 games Franklin posted twice. And now he's doing the same thing at Penn State. Feel free to piss all over that to make yourself feel better. It's probably just dumb luck.
Excellent post. This is my line of thinking as well.
The Franklin hate among our fan base is a little baffling to me. I even remember listing to WTKA 1050 last summer and they were interviewing some Michigan blogger/writer guy and he basically said the same thing. "Franklin can't coach", "He's going to prove he's a hack when this season starts", "The only thing he knows how to do is recruit", etc.
Even then I was like "Huh?? What's your issue dude?" Then Franklin goes on to post another 11 win season with a great bowl win.
The difference in the resumes of Harbaugh vs Franklin is Penn State having a break go their way against OSU, and Michigan having one go against them. At the end of the day, Franklin has hardware and Harbaugh doesn't, but both programs are basically at the same level.
IDK - Harbaugh is 2-1 against Franklin, crushed Franklin's team that beat OSU and won B10 (and beat the B10 west champ in regular season). Basically the difference between the two is PSU upset OSU at home on a blocked kick, Harbaugh lost on the road by 1 inch 4th down play. Franklin took a 7 win team and wins 7 games first 2 years. Harbaugh has 5 win team and has back to back 10 win seasons.
I would GLADLY swap records with Franklin and Harbaugh. I don't care that their win against OSU came at home on a blocked kick. At least they got the W and the B1G championship to boot. That's substantially better than 0-3.
Let's see how Harbaughs 4th year goes. Took Franklin 2 1/2 years to figure it out. Year 3 was looking grim but they finished strong. Harbaugh year 3 finished...not so strong. They won the games they should have and lost 2 inexplicably to inferior teams in an expected down year.
The coaching has gotten us here. And they've recruited this years team that honestly does not have a weak unit. Shea counts too because he could have transferred elsewhere. I mean, it would not surprise any of us to have all big ten reps from every unit. Including running back and o line. Osu and Penn state maybe can have that expectation. As far as hope and faith in the coaching staff putting my favorite team in a position to be great on Saturdays this fall and in years to come, mine is as high as its been in 13 years. Rivals be damned! Go Blue!
Still cant believe they lost to Sparty and S. Carolina. Gross.
I tossed out a proverbial bone to keep the Harbaugh-can-do-no-evil jackals at bay.
But, yeah, the proof is pretty much in the pudding.
Absolutely no excuses this year, though.
*uck this man. Harbaugh leads the overall matchup against Franklin and PSU. Two seasons ago we took them to the woodshed. NO one expected them to win the BIG that year and for a few balls falling their way they have been on an upward trajectory.
Remember, prior to last year Franklin was on the hot seat.
I'm tired of our fans saying BS about our team. Some of you live in this instant gratification era that is absurd and stupid.
Instant gratification? It’s been what, 14 seasons since we won the conference.
Since then, MSU has won/shared the conference championship three times, PSU three times, Wisconsin three times, and OSU has won it seven times.
Kind of crazy actually that only four teams have won the conference in the past 14 years. The 14 years preceding that had nine different teams winning at least a share.
The gratification when we win the conference will be far from instant.
Franklin the last two years has also had excellent QB play and the most dominant RB in the B1G in a generation. If Harbaugh's 2016 team had a Saquon Barkley they would have won the B1G and would have been in the playoffs.
You act like they didn’t take us to the woodshed last year. Face it his resume so far is better! If head to head were the be all end all. Then your argument would hold more weight. He arguably took over a worse situation than Harbaugh and has wins over the top 3 teams in the east, plus a B1G championship. That’s not instant gratification, those are called facts!!!
It's been a long, long, long, time since UM has overachieved, gotten the most out of their talent, or punched above their weight.
Yes...yes it has =(
This is pathetically true.
Don't think too many people saw a 10 win team in Harbaugh's first year. The team didn't even have a serviceable QB when he arrived...and I don't think there was a single pre-season first team All-Conference player on the team. Two-seasons later and nearly half the team is drafted by the NFL.
That was an over-achievement IMO.
Probably getting blown out by OSU and losing yet again to MSU somewhat dampens this "over-achievement".
it helps to have a once in a program's life stud running back and a pretty decent healthy QB.
No doubt - Barkley is special. But they're not replacing him with walk-ons. 5-stars Miles Sanders (#1 RB in '16) and Ricky Slade (#1 APB in '18) are waiting in the wings.
Exactly.
As long as the new OC keeps running the same offense, I don't see why PSU's production would suddenly go off a cliff.
2015 - 14th recruiting class
2016 - 20th recruiting class
2017 - 15th recruiting class
2018 - 5th recruiting class
Those are solid classes and a fantastic class just recently.
If they can post back to back 11 win seasons with a B1G championship to boot WITHOUT top 5 recruiting, I'm not sure I want to know what kind of team they'll field WITH top 5 recruiting.
If Franklin can be excellent at the "X's and O's" then Penn State could be the next Clemson. I just don't think he has the ability coaching wise to be excellent.
So, I've heard other people say this before and I'm honestly curious...what makes you believe that Franklin doesn't have the "ability" coaching wise?
I mean, what else does the man have to prove? He's posted back to back 11 win seasons and has a B1G championship under his belt, along with a Rose Bowl berth and a victory over OSU.
I think this year will tell us a lot about Franklin. A lot of people here gave a ton of credit to Moorehead for their offensive success and want to discount how good they were in 2016 because of the ass kicking we gave them. With that said, it's hard to argue with the results on the field since that game against us.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't the Penn St team we beat in 2016 like missing half their players to injury? Cause I seem to remember that team shifting into another gear a couple games after we beat em. They haven't been the same since.
I remember them being down a couple linebackers which is big. I don't remember any of their offensive pieces being gone and they had less than 200 yards on offense. Something clicked after their OT game against Minnesota.
As Sione said, and if my memory isn't shot, they were down two starting linebackers and then a 3rd was ejected early for a sketchy targeting call. They pulled a redshirt off of a true freshman in that game (Cam Brown, I believe) because they ran out of LB-shaped guys.
That was the 4th game of Joe Moorhead's new spread offense. 4th start of McSorley's career. Kent State, Pitt, Temple and then they walked into Michigan Stadium and Don Brown's all-senior, 732 draft picks, #1 in the country defense at them alive. After that loss, they scuffled until the miracle blocked FG win against OSU and then they went bonkers and lit up the scoreboard pretty much up until today.
Gonna have to respectfully disagree here.
Penn State has definitely proven they can take their game to the next level. They've both: Beaten OSU, and Won the Big 10 conference and made it to the Rose Bowl.
We have accomplished neither of these things and our last meeting between the both of us was an absolute disgrace on our part. Franklin took Penn State from nothing and won the conference by his third season.
By my count, Franklin and PSU is ahead of us in all measures. They've also posted back to back 11 win seasons. This plus their rather high-powered offense and I can see how people view them as the next Clemson.
Dabo and James Franklin - I see the comparison (and I've heard this comparison before).
They're both goofballs who wouldn't be my first choice when it comes to doing the football Xs and Os. But their players generally seem to like them both.
I throw them both in my Urban Meyer category. Could the three of them outsmart elite coaches when it comes to game-plans? No.
Can they recruit better than 97% of the coaches out there? Yes.
Oh come on. Urban has basically the highest winning percentage in the game. As much as we all love Michigan here saying he's not one of the top two coaches in the game is just silly.
I never said he wasn’t a top two coach. He’s always been a great recruiter. In college football you quite simply just need the more athletic team to win. He found the formula and it’s been working.
I still don’t think he’s much of a X’s and O’s Guy
Urban Meyer inherited a Bowling Green team that was 2-9 and made them 8-3 in his 1st year there due to...great recruiting or X's and O's?
He then went to Utah where he inherited a 5-6 team and made them a 10-2 team in his 1st year and a 12-0 team in his 2nd year because of great recruiting or X's and O's?
He then went to Florida, which just had 3 straight 5 loss seasons and in his 2nd year won a national championship...and he won a national championship at OSU too.
You don't think the guy knows X's and O's?
Exactly.
I think some people believe that a coach's Xs and Os have to be really complex in order to qualify as "elite". So Harbaugh's offense for example. Highly complex and difficult to learn/master.
Whereas an offense like Penn State, Clemson, Ohio St. etc. is much simpler in overall form and easier for players to learn/master.
But, I would contend that "elite" Xs and Os are whichever Xs and Os that consistently win and win big. It doesn't matter how complicated the scheme is, if your opponent can't stop you, then you have the superior game plan.
It's also not just about Xs and Os but also about the ability to coach up and develop the talent that's currently on the roster. Elite coaches make their players infinitely better then when A) the coach first arrived, and B) when the player first arrived.
Meyer, Franklin, and Dabo have all demonstrated that A) Their schemes aren't all that complicated, B) Their opponents very rarely can stop them on the field, C) their players visibly and consistently improve year to year to year.
How anyone can criticize coaches for these kind of results just makes me scratch my head a little bit. Like, is this the game of college football or the game of college calculus?
Co-sign completely.
If I'm going to slap the genius tag on anything, it's on the designer of a system that is easy to implement, consistent in its execution, and mad deadly. Simple design is genius if the function you get is high-level.
He's got an AK-47 of an offensive design. Not a bunch of complex moving parts, just the bare minimum and effective in almost all situations.
We've got an M16. Lots more parts, potentially very useful, but goddamn does it jam up all the time. Sophisticated isn't always better. Sometimes, it's demonstrably worse.
Lol. Ak47 to M16 comparison. One of the best I’ve ever heard. It’s perfect. And I should know. I’ve owned enough of both. Finally got rid of the darn M16 platform and haven’t looked back since.
Going to have to side with wildbackdunesman here. His track record at BGSU and Utah disagree with not being good with X's & O's. Your first message said against elite coaches he wouldn't do well. But he's beat Harbaugh 3 times, Saban in the first playoff.
No, Dabo is likeable IMO, but Franklin is extremely douchey and hateable. He has done a good job recruiting, but on the field results will be interesting after he lost PSU's best player in a long time.
I wasn't talking about whether you, or I, or college football fans as a whole, liked Franklin.
I was talking about whether his players liked him. And --- a few exceptions out there (Christian Hackenberg and that 2015 team, which was a mess) --- I think that's clearly been the case. His teams look like they have fun and enjoy their coaches and teammates. Vandy fans would say the same thing about Franklin's teams there.