Rules for NCAA picks
Since I blew up my bracket by picking Arizona and Kansas again, I thought I'd be smart to make some rules and avoid stepping on the same rakes next year. So far, I've got Arizona, Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue and Iowa on my "Be Very Wary" list. I've got Michigan. Michigan State and Arkansas on my "Don't Underestimate" list. Not sure where to put Tennessee and Texas because of the Rick Barnes effect. What are other thoughts and ideas?
Kansas?
I think the B1G is a constant on your wary list.
Yeah, I would put Illinois on there too.
My thought, wait until it’s actually 2024 to make your lists considering you never know how good a team will be until then. That, I believe, will be key to making your picks for like 360 days from now.
So you're one of those people who relies on evidence and experience.
That approach has worked out swell for me...
March 20th, 2023 at 10:31 PM ^
Honestly, just a weird hunch. Not sure how it will play out.
What's the "I've got Michigan." sentence referring to?
Teams that regularly out perform their seeds. As often noted on this forum, Juwan’s Sweet Sixteen teams were on the tail end of mediocre regular seasons. (If you are seriously asking).
seriously making fun of the errant punctuation in OP
Seth puts out a good stats analysis. Go with that.
Put Kansas and Virginia on the ‘wary’ list only on years they don’t win it all. Put Michigan on the ‘do not underestimate’ list only when they make the tournament. Just common sense stuff like that.
in past years I've done well by picking a lot of BIG ten teams in the first few rounds
this wouldn't be good strategy this year... seems like the SEC is paying now
but the BIG 12 and Big Ten are often underrated and win a lot of games in the early rounds
oh yea, and I like to pick whatever team Bobby Huggins is coaching
I’m thinking I don’t need to check my mailbox for the invite.
Also, if I win $10M for the perfect MGM bracket, I'll throw a party for you all at our preferred Venue. - Blue Highlander, 3/15/23
Not this year, but if we pool our knowledge and work together maybe someday we’ll have the best party ever.
Always bet on black.
You need to look at who Vegas lists as the favorite and who the public thinks is the favorite then work backwards.
The Illini have been big time chokers in recent years as well. They cannot be trusted.
March 21st, 2023 at 12:12 AM ^
Underwood at OK state was pretty good tho. Had pieces but not a good team this year and had the Cockburn before that.
he was only at oklahoma state for the one season (that game, in which the cowboys played to their seed). he did get two upsets in his three years at stephen f. austin, though, beating over-seeded vcu and west virginia teams. in both those years they came in on long winning streaks and were probably underseeded, fwiw.
never bet on an asshole that everyone hates, is what i’m saying.
March 20th, 2023 at 10:08 PM ^
Always count on Georgetown, St. John's, Duke and North Carolina to make the sweet 16. 1990's revisited.
March 20th, 2023 at 10:52 PM ^
Big ten teams that get a really friendly whistle all year long are great to bet to poop their pants early. Izzo, keady, and knight once they hit legend status dominated in big ten venues and underachieved at neutral sites.
Teams that are big man dependent with guards that are basically set shooters arent good bets. Stop the big and win the game.
If they cant win on the road they arent going to survive several games away from home.
Use that combo I saw recently of minimum kenpom defensive/offensive ranking to eliminate most teams. Sorry i dont have that number handy.
This is Rick Barnes' 35th season as a Head Coach, and it's only his 8th time making it to the Sweet Sixteen.
Regular Season Rick is an incredibly apt nickname for him.
How many lists do you have
"How many lists do you have" started to give me flashbacks to the days of a one-time MGoBlogger and his "Super Guides" peppering the comments on MGoBlog? Is that guy still around? Is he like the one who must not be named around here?
Good bets to under perform: Illinois, Virginia, Rick Barnes, Shaka Smart, Purdue, Iowa, Penny Hardaway.
March 21st, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
Never trust the B1G. Wisconsin is an occasional exception and MSU is boom-or-bust.
March 21st, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Gotta go easy on the chalk, especially when in years there aren't any (or many) truly dominant teams. I didn't pick nearly enough dogs.
BRACKET WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES.
Never get involved in a land war in Asia.