Rudock v. Cook: common opponents in 2013 and 2014
I've been getting a little tired of the media praising Connor Cook as one of the top QBs in the conference while discussing how Michigan's QB situation is in trouble.
Any of you who have looked at Rudock's and Cook's respective 2013 and 2014 stats know that they put up pretty similar numbers on a seasonal basis (albeit with a slight edge to Cook). I decided to go a step further and look at all of their common opponents during the 2013 and 2014 seasons to see how they fared. I've color-coded the QB that had the better QB rating in each game. I'll let you draw your own conclusions, but here are a few basic points:
- They played 9 common opponents during 2013 and 2014: 6 in 2013, and 3 in 2014.
- Rudock had the better QB rating in 6 of those games, while Cook had the better QB rating in 3 of the games.
- In all 3 matchups where Cook has the edge, Rudock also played well against the same opponent, but the reverse isn't true (see Minnesota, WMU, and both Nebraska games).
- Cook is probably best known for his 2013 performance against Ohio State in the BTTG. Cook had better stats than Rudock against OSU, but Rudock was not far behind (despite having to play them in Value City Horseshoe Stadium).
I guess my biggest takeaway from this is that the sky is most definitely NOT falling for Michigan with Rudock as our probable starter. Far from it. If MSU can have success with a "game manager" at QB, then so can we. Also, HARBAUGH.
Note: while the QBs' respective ratings in the 2014 Maryland and Nebraska games might appear to be a sloppy copy/paste job due to them being the same, they are in fact correct. In both games, Rudock had a 112.9 and Cook had a 110.2.
Thanks for posting this.
I know results are the only thing that matters to an extent, but Cook has a lot more of the NFL qualities that are sought in QBs and that's why he's getting so much hype. An analysis like this would probably reflect poorly on Hackenberg but he's probably the most talented QB in the Big Ten
In my opinion, his biggest "NFL quality" is that he has a stellar defense keeping him in games. Give him Iowa's defense, and whats his record over the past two years..and his projected draft status?
Edit: In all fairness to Cook, he makes some very clutch throws, but in my opinion nothing I've seen from him warrants first round draft pick status. Let's not forget that this is a guy who couldn't beat out Andrew Maxwell for the starting job in 2012 and early 2013. Normally if you have first round talent at QB on your roster, the coaches are going to spot it pretty easily.
Cook is a poor man's Henne, who was a 2nd round pick and had a rocket arm.
Cook is an Arena Footballer
Well, at least an NFL backup. Because in a bit of serious analysis, I feel like he is better as a prospect and overall QB than Cousins was. And Cousins is still an NFL back up I believe.
The Redskins needed anyone with a pulse to play QB and crybaby Cousins wasn't even an option.
Never beat OSU in his four years. So let's not use Henne as a example please
How were the teams respective rushing attacks in each of these games? That would be interesting to see if there was adequate balance.
Couldn't beat out Maxwell? Remember that time Brady couldn't get the starting job?
The difference is, Henson wasn't incompetent. And even Brady has stated when he was in college he's wasn't better than the guys ahead of him on the depth chart (even though he thought he was at the time).
He also has the most spectacular ability to throw balls directly into the chests of DBs and have them drop it. He's arguably the greatest QB I've ever seen in that category.
Agree on this one so much.
Literally saw a pass go thru a DBs hands and into a MSU WR for a TD vs Illinois I believe it was in 2013. Stanford dropped 2 passes into the chest - every MSU game it seems he gets 2+ drops of sure INTs. Must throw hard.
Reality is Cook has a low compl% for a college QB but has a quick release, ability to completely forget shitty plays (which is a big advantage many QBs dont have) and will come back and make a good one, and throws really well off the run IMO (better then in the pocket where he has stance issues). He also has great size and decent mobility for that size.
He also is very good on 3rd downs just from an anecodotal standpoint. Can't back it up with stats but he seems to make the play when needed. That offsets his pattern of overthrowing an open guy in the flat for an easy toss on 2nd and 8.
I wouldnt call him poor man's Henne but poor man's Rothelisberger. Another QB accused of living off great defenses for big wins - big, mobile, strong arm, not high completion % early in NFl career. Also what Russell Wilson is accused of.
He is a gamer.... and he was counted on to do a lot more in 2014 v 2013. He had a better 2014 than Rudock while I assume the 2 were very comparable in 2013.
One caveat - Cook has had EXCELLENT pass protect the past 2 years. The emergence of the MSU OL gets lost in their defensive prowess. I bet in 90% of his games he doesnt even have a grass stain. If you threw Cook behind UM or PSU's OL the past 2 years he'd be LOL PTSD just like the QBs who have played behind those lines.
Overrated.
A 2 1/2 star (2-3 star depending on website) QB with MSU as his only power 5 offer is now overrated. Gheeessh. Give me a break.
"They" said the same thing when Tom Brady came out but Geno Carmazzi was drafted much higher because he had "NFL skills".
"They" dont know what they are talking about.
Well "they" are right more often than not. There's a reason why "they" rank guys like Cook so high.
I don't think anyone would call Cook a game manager...
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I certainly would (and did), and have seen others describe him that way. 22 TDs in 2013, 24 TDs in 2014. Nothing earth shattering. 58% completions both years he's been a starter. That's extremely low for a "first-round talent," especially in more recent years.
Statistics are one point of reference for scouts. Look at Winston. His interceptions soared this last year and by pretty much every stat he was significantly worse not only than his freshman year but also Mariotta. "First-round talent" is essentially meaningless, and I am also of the mind that Cook is a bit overrated... but he's rightfully considered a better quarterback than Rudock right now.
First, it remains to be seen whether Winston was a legit first round talent. He could turn out to be a bust, but you're point is well taken. Second, I'm not arguing that Rudock is the better QB. My beef is that the relative praise (or lackthereof, in Rudock's case) they each receive is not backed up by the data. Not even close. Cook is not nearly as dominant as popular opinion suggests, and Rudock is better than people give him credit for.
I'm glad you did the exercise and I appreciate the research. I just don't think coming in looking to find data to prove Rudock is a better QB than Cook is a great approach. Also, talking about talent, of course it remains to be seen how good Winston will be, or Cook, or Rudock in Michigan's system...the point is Winston was valued as the top pick in football last year by neutral parties (NFL teams) taking into account statistics, quality/differences in competition between conferences, observation, etc. I don't think Cook is as good as any of the OSU quarterbacks and I think Hackenberg probably does have better athleticism and talent. I also think Cook is still a better QB than Rudock.
Your takeaway however is good and accurate.
Last edit: tacky upvoting your own post, baud.
"I just don't think coming in looking to find data to prove Rudock is a better QB than Cook is a great approach."
That's most certainly NOT what I did. I was aware that Connor Cook had medicore stats despite the level of praise he receives, and I saw someone post something on another forum showing that Rudock's and Cook's SEASONAL stats were pretty similar. But I thought to myself, "Yeah, but how do we know Rudock's stats aren't padded by games against non conference opponents?" So I looked at their common opponents expecting Cook's stats to be better, and I was surprised to find that they aren't. Then after I saw YET ANOTHER article about how dominant of a QB Cook is, I got fed up and decided to share what I had learned with the board.
Matt Ryan threw a ton of INTs in college and turned out okay, I think he had 19 his senior year. Statistics only tell part of the story.
Yup. He's literally the only first rounder I can think of that had shitty stats (lots of INTs, low TD #, and completion % in the 50s) who turned out to be prety good
That's kind of impressive when you also factor in that Cook had a superior defense and better OL to work with than Rudock.
Rudock's stats behind a horrible OL ala-Michigan are already a pleasant surprise. I'll honestly be shocked if he isn't the starter this Fall.
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Cook should've bolted for the NFL last year and collected his "clipboard" check. He might be the most overrated QB in the game.
This is great! Very excite to see Rudock under center with our stable of running backs and talented (yet unproven) wideouts. Not to mention Butt in the slot and over the middle. We have a real chance to surprise this year, especially with an improved o-line.
Fantastic post! Thank you, Dawkins. I feel a lot more confident with Ruddock at the helm.
If you weight completion percentage over YPA (trying to adjust for differences in the quality of the rest of the team) and look at differences in qb rating between the two...stats say Rudock should be right on par with Cook, if not better. Cook beat Rudock significantly only when comparing NW and Indiana, two awful teams that are completely outclassed by msu, but are competitive with Iowa.
Very nice analysis here, and thanks for posting it.
I think some of the cumulative stats speak for themselves with Rudock, which is another reason I really don't understand some of the uneasiness surrrounding him being the probable starter (I base this only on past performance, of course). In two years, he completed 60.3% of his passes and threw for over 2,300 yards both times and could be counted on for the occasional rushing TD (very occasional, usually goal line in a fashion only Iowa could manage). In terms of of QB rating overall, comparable to Gardner but Rudock is someone that seems to fight right into what Harbaugh would like to do, so that might help quite a bit (also, surrounding talent and coaching).
say "fight" instead of "fit?"
Nice work - appreciate it.
It's really sad that two quarterbacks from the same conference only had 3 common opponents in 2014. When that's the case, can you really call it a conference? It's more like two separate divisions that have a conference championship game to see who gets to play in the CFP. It's really just a quarterfinal game in the playoff.
I should point out that both teams also played Purdue in 2014, but Rudock was injured and sat out the entire game.
Something I notice that could or could not be important: in only one of those matchups did Rudock have fewer interceptions. Probably nothing, but maybe.
if we combine the two they'll be either Rudook or... Cock
To be expected. To Cook's credit, he does throw very few INTs, though sparty fans will tell you that part of that is due to a lack of aggressiveness in his game. He could potentially end up with a lot more yards but more INTs if he threw more balls.
I dont think Cook is not aggressive. And really are you going to say any QB relative to Iowa is non aggressive? That might be one of the least aggressive offenses in the country.
Cook's YPA went up from 7.25 as a 1st year starter to 8.81 as a 2nd year starter. That's a huge jump and doesnt signify a low risk QB. The absolute # of 8.81 is also huge.
By comparison Rudock's 2013 YPA was 6.9 and only popped to 7.1
8.8 ypa would (without looking) be top 10 nationally for any QB in a P5.
Put another way Rudock completed 1 more pass than Cook but passed for 800 yards less.
has been dreadful. With the exception of 2009 Ferentz has been an average coach since 2004.
That 2009 squad had Bryan Baluga, Pat Angerer, Amari Spievey and 3 other NFL draft picks.
I'm surprised he still has his job.
I'm confident Rudock will be a terrific stop-gap until 2016. Going into next season is going to be very exciting -- I can't wait to see Peters, Viramontes, Gentry and Malzone competing.
Must consider him the favorite with his experience, stats and talent.
Yup. He'll be a 4th-year guy in 2016, and the yardage he put up as a freshman (3,117) would put him at #2 on Michigan's all time single season passing yardage record list, right behind Navarre (3,331, in 2003). Granted, it was in a smaller conference, but the kid can play. There's no way in the world a true freshman comes in and beats him out. Gentry could have a shot at him though.
Are the QB ratings for the Maryland and Nebraska games correct? They are exactly the same, making me think one's a copy and paste typo.
Yes, they are correct. That's a pretty weird anamoly though, not to mention the fact that I randomly put those two games right next to each other too.
Cook is one of the best QBs in the conference and the nation, facts be facts. Cook also had one of the nations best defenses as well. I get he is the enemy but it seems people are bashing him purely for that. I hope if Jake wins the job he plays well, but if he is to be compared to Cook he has to make a big leap.
I wonder if some of you guys think you know more than NFL scouts, or are just completely biased.
See: Brady, Tom.
See: Stance, Easy or Take, Hot.
and funny. I actually agree with you about Cook, but I wonder how much of the Cook > Rudock is due to MSU's superior OL and Tresselball play calling? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
College production is a very small part of what NFL scouts look for in a prospect.
But in 2014 MSU had the 6th best passing offense (opponent adjusted) and Iowa had the 58th best. Stats lie (Rudock had the 54th best passer rating last year, Cook was 19th; Rudock's non-con wasn't murderer's row compared to MSU's). This shows that Rudock isn't some scrub of a QB and can play good games, but (and this will come across as know-it-all), the eye test is easily in Cook's favor.
People calling him a game manager are wrong, at least for 2014 (he was in 2013 until the BTT). He hits some impressive throws, makes a lot of really good throws, and makes some bad ones too. I don't think he's quite as good as Henne was, but I view him as a pick up in the first 3 rounds at least, most likely in the first two (depending on the talent around him, Henne would have gone earlier if it not been a relatively deep draft in 2008). He's in that same category, especially now that "pro-style" offenses are becoming fewer and fewer. And remember, Cook doesn't have the advantage of throwing a ton of screens. Iowa throws more screens than MSU actually. Cook's numbers aren't propped up by a lot of bubble screens and such.
Cook hasn't played very well against Michigan, and I get the feeling that most Michigan fans are basing their opinion of Cook based on that, watching him briefly in the background of other games, and bias. Cook is a good player, I think it's time for Michigan fans to stop living in denial about that and searching for excuses to why most others view him as a good QB prospect; admitting he's a good QB doesn't make you less of a fan.