Rooting Guide: Week 11
Things are looking pretty good for Michigan now. But the playoff committee has shown they can be a fickle beast.
Week 11 looks pretty "meh" on paper, but who knows when chaos will rear its head?
Essential:
Michigan beats Rutgers, in non-embarrassing fashion (style points matter, at least 21+ margin of victory should take care of it).
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Big Ten Games:
Wisconsin @ Penn State
We beat both teams, but Penn State is likely to remain ranked tomorrow, and has near guaranteed wins in their final two games (Wisconsin has a tough upcoming matchup @ Purdue). Penn State winning out is puts them in the top 15ish range for a nice resume win
Root For: Penn State
Northwestern @ Iowa
Northwestern has the division all but locked up. Even with a loss at Iowa, they would also need to drop one of @ Minnesota or Illinois to blow their lead. We want them to win out from here so they can at least be a fringe top 25 team for championship week.
Root For: Northwestern
Ohio State @ Michigan State
You could argue either way here. MSU win almost certainly locks the division up for Michigan, and makes MSU another ranked win for Michigans resume (assuming they don't blow it the following week @ Nebraska).
OSU win essentially guarantees the game to be a top 10 matchup, putting Michigan on the biggest stage Thanksgiving weekend. A win here probably has the biggest impact at the most crucial time.
Root For: Meteor
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Big 12 Games:
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
Oklahoma is one of two of Michigan's biggest threats. Rooting interest is pretty simple, even if the outcome we want is unlikely.
Root For: Oklahoma State
TCU @ West Virginia
Assuming OU wins out, which looks likely, the next best hope is to diminish their resume. As of now, WVU and Oklahoma are headed for a collision course of playing each other in consecutive weeks on Thanksgiving weekend and the Big 12 championship game. A lower ranked WVU probably gives OU that much less of a chance at a quality win
Root For: TCU
Texas @ Texas Tech
Texas beat OU, which is looking like a worse and worse loss with every Texas loss. OUs only loss being to an unranked Texas would be huge.
Root For: Texas Tech
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SEC Games:
Auburn @ Georgia
After Oklahoma, Georgia is Michigan's next biggest threat. If UGA runs the table and knocks off an undefeated Alabama team in a close game, then the debate comes up about 2 SEC teams in the playoffs. Georgia losing eliminates this possibility
Root For: Auburn
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Florida State @ Notre Dame
This one not all of you may agree with. But Notre Dame's schedule has worked out terribly from them outside of Michigan. A loss in any of these last 4 game probably puts them behind Michigan, even with the head to head result. A loss to abysmal FSU would all but guarantee this.
Root For: Florida State
(I'm not even gonna waste time discussing Washington State because they are on the outside looking in).
November 5th, 2018 at 8:25 PM ^
Root for MSU. OSU loss helps with recruiting as well.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:11 PM ^
It's okay to hold your nose while you do this abhorrent but possibly necessary activity.
November 6th, 2018 at 8:47 AM ^
Just for this week it is ok to let your little brother beat up on our enemy. MSU is after all family however sick they are.
November 6th, 2018 at 2:13 AM ^
I never root for MSU. I never root for OSU.
This week, I will simply root against OSU harder than I root against MSU. ;)
November 6th, 2018 at 7:26 AM ^
That’s a good way of looking at it. Another is rooting for Michigan by proxy.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^
OSU will beat MSU by double digits, and this board will start getting a case of the BPONEs.
November 6th, 2018 at 8:49 AM ^
If that happens in a convincing fashion, all it means is that OSU game becomes 50/50. I will take that. Right now it is tilting heavily in our favor
November 5th, 2018 at 8:31 PM ^
I know as far as playoff implications go we should root for OSU, but I can’t do it. I’ve never seen us win anything outside of a sugar bowl. I’d honestly rather they lose and we just get the east crown(Barring something catastrophic). And I normally prefer OSU when they play MSU. It’s the weak mentality though I’ll admit it.
November 6th, 2018 at 5:17 AM ^
I don't even think it helps from playoff perspective. An MSU victory guarantees us a conference championship game, which is a huge goal in and of itself, in addition to a chance to impress the CFP committee.
November 6th, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^
And if MSU wins this weekend they finish the year with Nebraska and Rutgers. They could end the regular season 9-3 with only 2 conference losses. That would certainly make our win over them look even better as well. For this reason I'm rooting for MSU. I think OSU might quit if Michigan can punch them in the face early and they have nothing to play for.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:31 PM ^
I feel like MSU OSU is a win win. Sparty will likely finish as a top 15 team, which we would have a win over on the road, if they win. OSU would be similar, but would also assist in the collapse of the evil empire. If OSU wins, fine, we get a chance at a top 5 team in 3 weeks.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:36 PM ^
Be sure to point out the lose-lose scenario to the Sparty fans in your life: A loss to OSU is bad, but a victory all but puts Michigan in the championship game.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:33 PM ^
Even if they lost to Sparty and beat UM, wouldn't OSU still win the east?
Their other loss would be to Purdue, a West division team. They would only have 1 loss in the east, to Sparty, and win the head to head tiebreaker via win against UM, right?
November 5th, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^
No. All big 10 losses count. If UM beats Rutgers & IU, they would clinch. 1 loss vs. OSU with two.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^
There is no division record. Only conference.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:46 PM ^
No. All big 10 losses count. If UM beats Rutgers & IU, they would clinch. 1 loss vs. OSU with two.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:47 PM ^
No. The first test is your W-L record in the B1G. In your scenario, our 8-1 would be better than their 7-2. Head to head is second. I think the third test is if there are 3 teams with the same record, you look to the division wins.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:56 PM ^
Thanks Aj, Jibbroni and CalifExile for the clarification
November 6th, 2018 at 5:31 PM ^
Unverified Voracity has a link to NW's route to representing the West. It covers various tie breakers that could apply. It may be of interest to you.
November 6th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
MaizeMN - how the fuck do you have 3,885 MGo points, and you have no clue how division titles are determined ?
Remember - it's better to be thought a fool, than to write a post and remove all doubt.
Go Blue!
November 6th, 2018 at 5:50 AM ^
Id be willing to bet that privately many many MSU fans want to lose. Hurting Michigan is much more important to them than actually winning football games. And a win virtually guarantees Michigan wins the east.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:41 PM ^
That is fantasy that 3 loss Sparty ends up in top 15
November 5th, 2018 at 10:18 PM ^
I don't know man. They're already ranked again after beating a below average Maryland team at home. The college football world has this weird fascination with MSU that I just don't understand.
November 5th, 2018 at 11:19 PM ^
Not at all. They'd have a win at PSU and against OSU, which is seen as close to Alabama nationally. There are always 3 loss teams in the top 15 and they'd have the resume for it.
November 6th, 2018 at 8:35 AM ^
There are always 3-loss teams in the top 15 at the end of the year, but usually, they're Auburn.
November 6th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
3 losses are to two division leaders and on the road to PAC-12 team. Also they have a W over Utah St (take it FWIW but it's their only L), PSU, Purdue and potentially OSU. Easily top 15 at season's end.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:32 PM ^
MSU will beat OSU and then go lose to Nebraska. It's too MSU to not happen. Raback it.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:40 PM ^
No way. Haskins may throw for 400 against that secondary.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:43 PM ^
Dantonio will cook up another rainstorm.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:42 PM ^
He'll start by sacrificing chickens, but it's going to take the whole barnyard.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:48 PM ^
I saw Chief Dan Tonio and some cows doing a rain dance earlier.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^
The secondary is improved and Haskins isn't that good. Drink and dump and yard after the catch.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:46 PM ^
He might, but they'll only run for about 50, and then MSU will get some too. I think OSU will win and should win, but there's a reason S&P gives MSU nearly 40% chance.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
I think one thing you are underestimating is Time of Possession. I think MSU will control the clock which will limit the opportunities OSU will have in this game. If OSU gets out to an early lead, this game is over. If MSU can find some success in their running game, this could be a tough battle for OSU. I also think OSU could have their hands full with Maryland’s offense as well.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^
I am going to have to go with the meteor, because I just can’t root for MSU or OSU.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:36 PM ^
No way I'm rooting for osu, but I still think they beat msu by 3 tds
November 5th, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^
I don't know what logical reason there is to think that. MSU is at home and healthier than they have been all year (Josiah Scott, Cody White, Kevin Jarvis, Jalen Nailor, Jordan Reid all played). They have a great rush defense that should be able to shut down OSU's poor rush attack. OSU's run game looked improved against Nebraska, but it's Nebraska. Succeeding against MSU would signal an actual functional/good rushing game, which I don't expect.
MSU just shut down Purdue 2 weeks ago, the Purdue team that demolished OSU. MSU's offense isn't great but it's healthier and OSU's D can make anyone look good. OSU may win, but expecting a 3 TD win seems unrealistic.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:56 PM ^
Easy. Osu is still filled with 4 and 5 star players. Acting like they can't wake up and put it all together for a game is just silly and frankly stupid. Would I be shocked if msu won? No, but I'm not going to act like osu can't roll them? No
November 5th, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^
I never said they can't "wake up for a game" or "roll them". But OSU got wrecked by Purdue. Expecting that when they haven't done it literally all year, and just failed to do so against 2-7 Nebraska at home after a bye, is just silly and frankly stupid.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
Lol ok. You're right. No way osu can score a lot of points on msu.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:21 PM ^
Acknowledging that they can and expecting that they will are two different things.
November 6th, 2018 at 6:24 AM ^
I forgot that msu pass defense is lights out. After all osu can't run the ball.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^
Besides that, who are they picking up a the jail Saturday morning?
November 5th, 2018 at 9:09 PM ^
Scott is probably the only one of those guys who might crack the two-deep for OSU. OSU is still more talented and still have a shot at the CFP if they win out. Only way OSU loses is if MSU figures out how to beat them throwing the football. Not happening with Dantonio's musical QBs.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:13 PM ^
The talent thing has been true Dantonio's entire tenure at MSU with regards to Michigan, PSU and OSU. That's a tired argument at this point. You could have said the same about Purdue.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:18 PM ^
No one is necessarily disagreeing with you. All some of is saying is that it's not insane to think osu can't roll them lol.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:29 PM ^
OSU has yet to roll anyone that has even a semblance of a pulse.
November 6th, 2018 at 6:22 AM ^
They have scored over 30 points in 7 games. They rolled Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, Oregon state and Tulane. But again you are right and have no chance of rolling msu.
November 6th, 2018 at 7:32 AM ^
Okay, but MSU is a lot better than Rutgers, Minnesota, Indiana, Oregon State and Tulane. Can you imagine Michigan players celebrating on the Oregon State turf the way they did in East Lansing? Sure, maybe after our big rivalry game this weekend in Piscataway, but not at Tulane.
Sparty has more momentum and gets them at home.
MSU 26 OSU 23
November 6th, 2018 at 7:45 AM ^
I don't really want to get into this cyber fight that seems to be evolving here, but OSU most definitely did NOT roll Minnesota nor did they roll Indiana.
Both of those games were in Columbus and OSU only had a 9pt lead over IU in the 4th quarter and a 6pt lead over Minnesota in the 4th quarter.
MSU is a better team than either Minnesota and IU, the game is in East Lansing and Dantonio has had good success against OSU while at MSU.
IF OSU wins this game, I would be VERY surprised if they win by more than 10. I would be more surprised if OSU won by 14+ than if MSU won straight up.