Rethinking OSU loss after CFP Final
I'm not sure if others in the board felt this way, but watching Clemson annihilate Alabama during the final felt a lot like OSU killing us in the Game. Of course, there were noticeable differences (e.g. athleticism) but it just seemed like Clemson came in way better prepared to handle Alabama's offense than Bama came in prepared to handle Clemson. Like Haskins, Lawrence picked apart Bama through the air, exploiting man-to-man coverage schemes that Bama had barely squeaked by on against Oklahoma and Georgia. Every Clemson possession felt like an inevitable touchdown. Indeed, Alabama didn’t have a sack or a quarterback hit the entire game (which feels familiar).
I say all of this to ask whether we've (and certainly me) have made too much of the OSU loss. If Nick Saban and Bama, with weeks to prepare, could get blown out by 28 points to Clemson, maybe we need to accept that even good teams with good coaches sometimes get it wrong? Don't get me wrong -- Michigan has a ton of work to do but I guess the Final reminded me that sometimes the game just doesn't break in your favor. Seems easier to have perspective when it's not your team.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
nothing makes 14 out of 15 feel better
January 9th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Yeah but if you zoom out a bit they've only won 16 of the last 20, and our win total quadruples.
January 9th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
Keep zooming.
January 9th, 2019 at 6:11 PM ^
What if you filter out losses to coaches who left in disgrace?
January 9th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
Haskins = #1 QB drafted this year
Lawrence = Supposedly the best QB that will ever have been drafted in a couple years.
_____
Shea Patterson they are not.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
I do think, and I might go to Bolivia for this, that this highlights that while we have had some good recruiting classes, that we aren't on the same recruiting and talent level as Clemson or Bama right now.
We have great wide recievers. But even if we modify our offense and got to the CFP next year and played Bama or Clemson they'll likely have corners and safety's that will run with them. And our defenders, while good, won't be able to handle theirs.
How do we fix this???? Luck will play part of it, getting some guys. Upping our game further. But it's not going to be easy. Especially with our admissions board (and that isn't a bad thing).
January 9th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
I don't think the talent level was much different. I've said this before, and I'll say it again, players have to make plays. Clemson's players made more plays than Alabama's. Not to mention, the one thing I never thought I'd see happen, happened. Nick Saban had a brain fart and panicked. Clemson's receivers beat man to man coverage, and when the ball wasn't on target, they made great plays on the ball. Clemson's DB's make open field tackles when they needed them the most. Clemson mixed up coverages and Tua made some really bad decisions. Clemson hid their blitzes until the last minute. When one teams players makes more individual plays than the other, it makes the coaches look a lot better. Not to mention, both teams d-lines were healthy and they both have top 10 picks at running back. It's simple, give your best players an opportunity to make plays, and hopefully they do.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
What exactly did you feel was Bolivia worthy here? Not that I fully agree, feeling that Oklahoma could well have lost to either OSU or michigan, and while this year our secondary did have a speed issue, next year Dax should be able to hang with anyone.
We actually saw the speed issue during the 2017 game, and really didn't pick up anyone to deal with that in the 2018 class. (But a more experienced secondary did help). All I'm saying is the college game is more transient than you portray with the two topish teams, especially if you can recruit some of the top talent and have good coaching and player development. For example: Maryland and psu we destroyed, but OSU squeaked out with a win there. If Clemson and Bama played again February 1st, while Clemson would be favored, I don't think if anyone would be surprised if Bama came out ahead in a rematch. They would have more to prove, not come in with an inflated attitude, and know they needed to adjust a game plan. If Michigan had gone to Columbus feeling they couldn't win with the current plan, you might have seen a different result as well. The prior years I'd say Harbaugh came in with that attitude and almost pulled an upset.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Just the idea that we don't have the talent yet to get there, and might not be able to get it at 'Bama or OSU rates due to a variety of circumstances.
Alot of this is opinion based on my watching college football over the years, and the 'eye test' of watching the games, so that is a huge caveat.
I think that they just seemed a level faster than we are. Our DB's had trouble covering OSU. Put them against Clemson or Bama and it would get ugly, particularly if we kept running man.
"For example: Maryland and psu we destroyed, but OSU squeaked out with a win there."
to me this is an example of the vagueries of college football; and how emotion can be a huge factor. Maryland was a team we wanted to keep on our radar as we struggle to rebuild. I don't think OSU cares about them much at all, and plays accordingly.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
Any team that has a good QB and real good receivers should feast on the defense if there is no pressure on the D Line. Same issue in both our OSU game and Bama vs Clemson. DBs no matter how good can only cover so long.
January 9th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
While speed was certainly some of the issue, play calling was as well. Take a Watson that had speed coverage issues against OSU and then make him navigate around a referee or a receiver and defender from an opposite crossing route and he was already a tep or two behind to start and then did not have the speed to make it up.
January 10th, 2019 at 6:10 AM ^
Arb Lover, more about matchups than anything. OSU biggest weakness was @ LB this year. Um's offense only forces defenses to cover 60% of the field, cutting down the area drastically that our LB's had to cover . Or washington and mattison were involved in a conspiracy, either or.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
If we're going by stars, then I think Michigan over the previous three or four recruiting years (2019 excluded) has had a significant advantage over Clemson. Now it could be that Swinney and his staff better identify needs and so can better target future prospects not to mention are better at seeing past the stars to the actual player. But, and this is the big one, maybe Swinney and Saben, and Meyer for that matter, are just better at creating an environment for success, both at the individual and collective levels.
January 9th, 2019 at 2:37 PM ^
I think you badly mistaken if you think Michigan holds an advantage over Clemson during the past four years. Clemson has a higher Blue-Chip ratio. Michigan would have had to recruit 12 fewer 3* recruits and 12 more 4* recruits from 2015 - 2018 to stay even with Clemson. Michigan is even farther behind Ohio State.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
I don't think talent level is the issue. Though Trevor Lawrence is light years ahead of anyone we have on the roster. Our talent is comparable to OSU and Clemson. At least according to 247's team talent metric.
https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://247sports.com/Season/2017-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://247sports.com/Season/2016-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
So if we've got the Jimmy's and Joe's, it's gotta be the X's and O's that is missing. Maybe that means our coaches can't teach at the same level as OSU/Bama/Clemson can, maybe it means our scheme doesn't fit our personnel, maybe it means something else, I don't know. But there is a clear disconnect and it doesn't appear to be a major gap in talent, so for me it's some part of the coaching that's going on here.
January 9th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
Not refuting your point about coaches, per se, but this may be an oversimplification a bit - talent at key spots matters as well as overall talent - Clemson won that game with a killer QB, NFL level D-Line, top WRs, and a good O-Line, along with a good gameplan. Bama has dramatically better talent than Clemson on all those links (100-140 points better) but some key position groups outplayed Bamas position groups in that game. Also players have to make plays, which Clemson had happen in that game.
Also OSU as 50, 75, and 120 points (roughly) better than Michigan in all of those years, with 2016 being the closest.
I concede your point that we're very comparable to Clemson in those metrics, however, which does speak to coaching and usage of talent, but matchups and position groups should also factor in. Not to mention luck and football being football. Clemson beat a 9-4 Texas A&M team by 2 and a 10-3 Syracuse team by 4 points earlier this season. Syracuse was Lawerence's first start and after that they blew everyone out including Alabama over. It that on Xs and Os or maybe this kid's that good?
January 9th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
How much more talent can we get? Clemson has yet to sign a top five recruiting class in the last decade despite their success. Their first real good class was last year. We've actually had higher ranked classes a few of those years since 2014 according to 247:
Michigan:
19, 48, 5, 3, 20
Clemson:
24,10, 8, 19, 6
Alabama has way more talent on paper and according to the NFL scouts. Clemson just has the best set of offensive and defensive coaches in the country, by far.
January 9th, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
Clemson pairs great DLs (which we have had a fair share of, but not really this year and especially not against OSU) with quality but not best-in-nation talent, good development (their receiver coaching, in particular, is consistently great) and schemes...
And absolutely elite QB play.
Their two titles were both a direct consequence of elite QB play. They're not the only team that gets it, but they combine everything well. They benefit a bit from a weak conference, which allowed them to get to the playoff in 2017 with only average QB play, but when their QB is outstanding so are they.
Michigan has not yet produced elite QB play. Frankly, there are three guys on the roster that might be capable of it. It's time for Harbaugh to produce an elite QB. Shea may still yet be that guy; down the road, Milton may be that guy (two more years of seasoning, hopefully, to add accuracy and decisionmaking to the howitzer mounted on his shoulder).
But that's the main difference. If you give UM elite DL play and elite QB play in Columbus this year, we don't lose. Instead the QB play was meh and the DL was outright bad.
January 9th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^
We can't win with what we're doing right now schematic wise. If we can't run the ball we're basically screwed as it stands, we saw it in both the OSU game and Florida game.
If all our receiver routes are deep post routes or fly routes, which I see a lot of, the OL has to have time to block for those and corners pick up on it so it's easy to defend. We have no short passing game to speak of. Despite the receivers being noticeably better hands-wise this year they still don't get separation, and that would appear to be scheme.
January 9th, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
IF IF IF IF IF IFFY IFFY IF
Geez, even if Michigan had "elite" DL and QB play--they SYILL have more weapons--and who is to say our DL wasn't elite? Maybe their OL, which seems to be full of veterans and high recruits, made our previously elite DL look ordinary???
They have: Elite QB play--probably one of the top 2 QB's in the country. They coach to his strengths. They have better running backs. WAY better OL.
Except for Purdue, OSU, remember, was outscoring even a team that put up 50 on them.
It is OK to say we might have done better, but there was a whole lot more to the game than their QB and our DL play.
January 9th, 2019 at 4:57 PM ^
Sound insights, unfortunately we don't have that elite talent at QB on our roster.
That talent level is an ez optic, with or without solid OL play. Elite Qb is gonna make the game changing plays/sick small-window throws.
Our talent level dictates plowing through bulk of our schedule as is, and win 10 games.
January 9th, 2019 at 5:41 PM ^
Absolutely spot on. The team is driven by the QB and what flows from there. We saw that w SP this year. A few game he was heavenly, a few others, not so good. How many times did we NOT get in the EZ and ended up with 3. Great QBs will touchdowns to happen, energy flows from that.
February 9th, 2019 at 8:25 AM ^
You think the UM OL & DB's played well enough to win? From my seat it looked like OSU dominated all the position groups , meaning UM had a lot more problems that day in Columbus than just the DL & QB play don't you think? OSU's receiver on the first TD was wide open. UM couldn't cover the slot receivers at all. OSU picked on your $.05back the whole game.
January 9th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
FYI you cant just look at the overall ranking of the classes. For example this year Ohio State will be ranked low and Michigan supposedly has the best class in the B1G, but if you look at the average player rankings OSU is the # 3 recruiting class behind BAMA and GEORGIA. We were never gonna have a top 10 class this year simply due to the small class of incoming players.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
We have the talent ... Steve Deace did some nice analysis of our talent vs Clemson and there is near parity. It boils down to what the coaching staff is doing at least from what I see.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
Prior to the championship game, Shea had a better passer efficiency rating than Lawrence.
If Turner stays in bounds, Shea hits Eubanks up the seam, and Black holds onto the ball in the endzone, we're all not as pissy today. (And if our defense hadn't come apart at the seams...)
January 9th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
Shea Patterson they are not.
The Michigan starting QB can never get any respect, can he? Shea had a rating of 149.8, averaged eight yards an attempt, and had 22 TDs to 7 INTs this season.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:40 PM ^
I'm a huge Shea fan. He's made a big difference and I think will be awesome next year.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
I think Shea is an upgrade over our previous QB’s. However, I think it might be safe to say Haskins, Tua and Lawrence are all top-5 picks when they come out. I do not think Shea will be picked that high. Those 3 in particular have physical gifts that Shea just doesn’t posses. Does not mean he cannot be effective, but there is a reason those guys are highly thought of by scouts.
January 9th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
Those guys are also allowed to throw the ball downfield and run more than an occasional RPO. Shea Patterson was dynamic when he kept the ball.
January 9th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^
Haskins actually did not run much and most of his passing yards came from throwing it 5-15 yards in the air and catching guys in stride for big gainers.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:23 PM ^
I'm sorry but I just don't see the excitement about Shea, his can't leave here with a loss to O state seemed manufactured. this is the same guy who early in the week of The Game said he was treating it as just another game, that it's just another team and he just started looking at film. I know he wanted to sound cool and all laid back like "I got this, I don't have to prepare all that much to kick their butts" but Haysoos F'ing Crisler its OKAY to say you focus on them. They OBSESS about us and it shows. You guys want an HONEST no subjective analysis of Shea? go read what all the NFL scouts (who are pretty damn good at this) said about him.
1. inconsistent
2. under throws A LOT of balls (questionable arm strength)
3. goes off script far too often
4. can run the ball but is not a dual threat
5. Not really comfortable in the pocket
6. as it stands now he is a back up QB in the nfl at best
these are not my words but NFL talent scouts.
So unless something drastic happens and Shea DRASTICALLY improves he is going in the 7th round and NO this is not another Tom Brady situation.
When the four letter word sports site rated ALL the qb's in the bowl games, he was ranked 19...NINE f'ing TEEN.
If we want to get close to elite then we need to open up the QB competition this spring and let Milton and McCaffrey. I'm seriosly worried Milton or McCaffrey don't transfer.
NOT trying to be debbie downer and Shea for sure helped us right the ship but after what we saw in the last two games, big games I just don't see him getting us "over the top"
January 9th, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
Hm. This is the same Haskins that the pre-game analysis here suggested,
"Pressure Haskins and you're playing a terrible QB instead of a great one."
https://mgoblog.com/content/preview-game-2018
That's an overstatement but Haskins is a completely different QB under pressure. You can pile up a ton of numbers on completion percentage and yards when you are throwing short, with no pressure and are getting ridiculous YAC. Plus, look at his footwork and the way he winds up to throw, I'm not convinced that he is going to be the second coming of Tom Brady.
January 9th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^
I agree. I think he is anything but a surefire NFL prospect.
January 9th, 2019 at 2:45 PM ^
Actually Fields is rated higher than Lawrence.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^
Can't see how this ends well.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
All I think of is: "Let's get better - Go Blue!"
January 9th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
No, we didn't make too much of it. It was 3 hours plus of pain, frustration, humiliation, and general suckitude. All of it was made worse by the knowledge that we not only lost The Game in horrific fashion, we lost a chance at a Big Ten championship and playoff berth-though I have no doubt we would have gotten smoked in that game. Any attempt to spin it so it doesn't seem so bad is doomed to failure in my mind.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Two of the last four years losing the game kept us out of the Big 10 CG and the playoffs. The fact that our asses were handed to us in spectacular fashion this year only makes it hurt more, especially after the last 15 years of failure against that team.
We were unprepared and outplayed by an OSU team that clearly wanted it way more than we did. I never thought that would happen when Harbaugh was hired. I mean, he knows how critical beating OSU is, so why can't he do it as the coach? Where the hell was the masterful game plan this year?
January 9th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
I know that it's a sports cliche, but can we stop with the "they wanted it more" line? You don't think Shea Patterson wanted to win that game and go to the CFP? You don't think Jim Harbaugh, a borderline crazy competitor, wanted to win that game? You dont think Chase Winovich wanted to win that game? C'mon. Yes, as fans we want it. We want it bad. It hurts when we dont get it. It hurts bad. But I promise you that those guys, who worked for months and years to get the chance to play and coach in that spot wanted it more than anyone on this blog. Sometimes wanting it doesn't overcome a talent disparity. Sometimes you can want it and still be outschemed. OSU was better than us that day, but not because they wanted it more.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
Which team just hired two of our coaches? Now ask yourself if that team wants to beat us more than we want to beat them.
Their entire program, since Tressel was hired, is centered around one goal and one goal only, beating Michigan every year. They think about us constantly and started planning and practicing for this year's game the day after last year's game.
It may be a cliche, but they want it more.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
It's a cliche and it is, frankly, untrue. And it's important to recognize that it is untrue, because if just "wanting it more" was all it took, we could solve that problem easily.
But "wanting it more" is, except in weird situations like bowl games where teams come from vastly different paradigms, rarely the cause of wins and losses. Players practice hard and play hard. But no amount of hard work and effort will overcome a schematic disadvantage or an inequality in athleticism or whatever.
I guarantee you we can find dozens of guys on this board who want Michigan to beat OSU as much as anything in sports. But if you could line up 11 WDs or Brians and they would get killed, because the athletes on the other side are better.
January 9th, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
I'll clarify. By "wanting it more" I mean they plan and prepare for us more than we do for them. Of course our players and coaches want to beat them, but they're obviously going about it the wrong way. The talent disparity isn't all that significant between the teams, so it must be coaching.
Look at OSU's record under Cooper. Highly ranked teams, winning tons of games all season long, then a loss to an 8-4 Michigan team to end the season (any of this sounding familiar?). Cooper thought The Game was just another game, and as a result, he couldn't beat us.
I love Jim Harbaugh and there's no one I'd rather have coaching our team right now. But that's the worry in the back of my mind, that he's our John Cooper.
January 9th, 2019 at 11:59 PM ^
John Cooper stockpiled NFL talent and won ‘The Game’ twice. I will take that at this point.
January 9th, 2019 at 1:07 PM ^
How are people supposed to actually believe that recruiting is the reason we can't beat Ohio State when several B1G teams who don't recruit as well as Michigan have considerably more success against them than we do?
January 9th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
Which big 10 teams have had considerably more success against Ohio State?
January 9th, 2019 at 3:39 PM ^
MSU, Iowa, Purdue
January 9th, 2019 at 4:00 PM ^
I guess it depends on your definition of “considerably.” In the 7 years since Meyer was there, MSU beat OSU twice and Iowa and Purdue have beaten them once. PSU also beat them once. We have beaten them zero times and nearly half those years we had clappy clapperson as our coach. I would think that having considerable success against a team would mean more than 1 victory. Since the point was that talent is the reason OSU is so good and the only considerable success we could find amounts to 1 team with two wins and 3 teams with one win over 7 years, I’m guessing those 5 losses were more luck than having more talent. But what do I know. MSU’s 2 victories are super amazing and Meyer should feel awful that MSU was so successful against him
January 9th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
I'm not disagreeing with you totally, but I doubt that has been OSU's "only goal" since Urban has been there. I honestly believe this was the only time since Jim has been here that the talent level was close to equal, and this year they actually seemed more prepared than us.
January 9th, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^
At this point, everything about OSU is in our team's heads. They have to feel the pressure. You can tell it's in the heads of the people on MGoBlog. We haven't won any big games lately, so confidence to perform when pressure is high is lacking. I was hoping the comeback vs. NW would build some confidence, it probably did, but the pressure of OSU is clearly greater.
So, the coaches and players need to get past a very tall mental barrier.
Clearly, whatever the coaches executed as a plan did not work. Back to the drawing board there.
We can't take the season "one game at a time". The season's preparation needs to build for The Game and that's thinking I would expect to be endorsed by The Mad Hatter. Is that what the coaches thought they were doing? I have no clue.