Recruitment of QBs remains risky business
Here are some statistics about Texas HS QB's who signed with FBS colleges from 2001-14.
Number | Percent | |
Total | 320 | 100% |
Lettered at original college | 220 | 69% |
QB starter at original college | 95 | 30% |
Transfers | 107 | 33% |
Changed positions | 72 | 23% |
Still eligible | 85 | 27% |
Over time, only about one-third of QB's that signed became starters at their original college. Another one-third transferred.
Here is a link to the article from the Houston Chronicle.
The article has statistical details for twelve Texas colleges and stories about individual QB's who transferred including Ryan Mallett.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
This is strange. There are lots of QBs who go to college and never start. Teams carry four or five of them and only one starts. Teams need backups too, like Bellomy (from Texas). These numbers are probably pretty normal.
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February 1st, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
Correct; and many are expected to move to another position. QBs are usually strong athletes and do well at other positions.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
Risky? Don't know about that. But guys do leave because they want to start. I just don't see how it could be considered a risk.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
Neat. But this is data 100% out of context. What about QB's from Florida? Ohio? What about other positions?
How can one draw any conclusions from this?
It is also a statistical fallacy to suggest that this means any QB from Texas has a one-third chance of being successful at the school he originally signed with.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
Amen. Also, Gentry is from New Mexico not Texas so this has almost no purpose or value.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
composite star rankings and factor in level of school competition. Toss out outliers like homesickness and poor study habits and then consider the weather patterns of each school.
February 1st, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
with those whose eligibility ran out.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^
This really doesn't have significance without comparisons to QB's from every other state. 27% still eligible may be the best rate in the country. I don't know either way, just hard to call them out without context. 50% of the last 4 Heisman winners have been Texas quarterbacks.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^
on our roster!
February 1st, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^
Bomb disposal - now THAT'S risky......
February 1st, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^
I like him. He makes decisive cuts and he's up to full speed right away. Looks to have descent hands as well!
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February 1st, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
He needs to tuck the rock with his arm when he runs.
February 1st, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
Bomb is deflated so I guess there's no chance of him fumbling it according to those pats haters
February 1st, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^
Some days you just can't get rid of a bomb.
February 1st, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
Responses like this are the reason I have to read nearly every post
February 1st, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
Looks like Batshawn Lynch. All he says in interviews is "Kapow!"
February 1st, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^
to go off. I saw some serious moves there. Does he have eligibility left?
February 1st, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
This should probably just be titled "Recruit success is not guaranteed." As far as I can tell it has nothing to do with QBs or Texas, though it seems the author wasn't clever enough to think this through properly.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^
Wow--that 1/3 transferred seems like a big number to me. This is feelingsball, but it also seems consistent with the image of Texas high school football, that you'd have a much lower percentage of QBs willing to wait multiple seasons for an opportunity to start or to accept roles as backups.
February 1st, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^
I'm willing to bet it's not just a Texas thing.
February 1st, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^
but it seems like something good to needle Texans about, regardless of its validity.
February 1st, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
QB likely has the toughest path to playing time of any position. You almost never see more than 1 QB on the field at once, even on trick plays. QBs almost never rotate. Continuity is prized as the QB is pumped up as the leader of the entire team. I'd imagine many backup QB's feel like they never really get their shot, and I'd bet this isn't something unique to the psyche of Texans.
It would be interesting to see nation-wide charts for many positions. Dollars to donuts QB is far and away the 'worst'.
February 1st, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^
Risky is going a class without taking a risk on a QB
February 1st, 2015 at 10:55 AM ^
What about Terrelle Pryor, what's his deal?
February 1st, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^
If you're interested in whether Texas QBs end up starting during their college careers, clearly you should only consider those whose careers are over. You say you've included those that were signed just last year -- I'd guess some of those kids are still wearing a redshirt.
I don't think there's a single surprising thing that you've presented here. Given that, as others have mentioned, teams always carry more QBs than they play, and kids often change positions, it's not surprising that a third or so is all that end up as starters.
The transfer number seems a little high, but, oh well. Besides this, why the focus on Texas? Just because the chronicle dumped these data on you? We'd surely learn more with a view to all the data nationally. I'm tempted to avoid drawing conclusions based on a small subset of the data, when the rest of the data should also be readily available someplace.
TLDR: I get the downvotes.
February 1st, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^
Yeah like others have said, leaving in recent QBs doesnt work.
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February 1st, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
Hey, information is information. We can draw our own conclusions from it if we want. Props to the op for giving us something to think about and discuss. I'm not gonna bitch and moan that he didn't meet my high exacting standards. I think it's a very interesting topic.
February 1st, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^
TCU is probably resposible for 80% of those QB's who switch positions. Gary Patterson always recruits QB's who are good athletes. He knows they have good football IQ's and he puts a lot on Defense also.
February 1st, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
As long as the QB stays at his original school, it doesn't seem risky to me. From the OP, that is 70%, in some capacity (backup or another position).