Recruitment of QBs remains risky business

Submitted by m1817 on

Here are some statistics about Texas HS QB's who signed with FBS colleges from 2001-14.

  Number Percent
Total       320 100%
     
Lettered at original college      220 69%
     
QB starter at original college        95 30%
     
Transfers      107 33%
     
Changed positions        72 23%
     
Still eligible        85 27%

Over time, only about one-third of QB's that signed became starters at their original college. Another one-third transferred.

Here is a link to the article from the Houston Chronicle.  

The article has statistical details for twelve Texas colleges and stories about individual QB's who transferred including Ryan Mallett.

 

99bobcats

February 1st, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^

This is strange. There are lots of QBs who go to college and never start. Teams carry four or five of them and only one starts. Teams need backups too, like Bellomy (from Texas). These numbers are probably pretty normal.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

swan flu

February 1st, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^

Neat. But this is data 100% out of context. What about QB's from Florida? Ohio? What about other positions?

How can one draw any conclusions from this?

It is also a statistical fallacy to suggest that this means any QB from Texas has a one-third chance of being successful at the school he originally signed with.

DrMantisToboggan

February 1st, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^

This really doesn't have significance without comparisons to QB's from every other state. 27% still eligible may be the best rate in the country. I don't know either way, just hard to call them out without context. 50% of the last 4 Heisman winners have been Texas quarterbacks.

MichiganG

February 1st, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^

This should probably just be titled "Recruit success is not guaranteed."  As far as I can tell it has nothing to do with QBs or Texas, though it seems the author wasn't clever enough to think this through properly.

EGD

February 1st, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^

Wow--that 1/3 transferred seems like a big number to me. This is feelingsball, but it also seems consistent with the image of Texas high school football, that you'd have a much lower percentage of QBs willing to wait multiple seasons for an opportunity to start or to accept roles as backups.

mobablue

February 1st, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^

QB likely has the toughest path to playing time of any position. You almost never see more than 1 QB on the field at once, even on trick plays. QBs almost never rotate. Continuity is prized as the QB is pumped up as the leader of the entire team. I'd imagine many backup QB's feel like they never really get their shot, and I'd bet this isn't something unique to the psyche of Texans.

It would be interesting to see nation-wide charts for many positions. Dollars to donuts QB is far and away the 'worst'.

johnthesavage

February 1st, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^

If you're interested in whether Texas QBs end up starting during their college careers, clearly you should only consider those whose careers are over. You say you've included those that were signed just last year -- I'd guess some of those kids are still wearing a redshirt.

I don't think there's a single surprising thing that you've presented here. Given that, as others have mentioned, teams always carry more QBs than they play, and kids often change positions, it's not surprising that a third or so is all that end up as starters.

The transfer number seems a little high, but, oh well. Besides this, why the focus on Texas? Just because the chronicle dumped these data on you? We'd surely learn more with a view to all the data nationally. I'm tempted to avoid drawing conclusions based on a small subset of the data, when the rest of the data should also be readily available someplace.

TLDR: I get the downvotes.

turtleboy

February 1st, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^

Hey, information is information. We can draw our own conclusions from it if we want. Props to the op for giving us something to think about and discuss. I'm not gonna bitch and moan that he didn't meet my high exacting standards. I think it's a very interesting topic.

Och3517

February 1st, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^

TCU is probably resposible for 80% of those QB's who switch positions. Gary Patterson always recruits QB's who are good athletes. He knows they have good football IQ's and he puts a lot on Defense also.

jblaze

February 1st, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^

As long as the QB stays at his original school, it doesn't seem risky to me. From the OP, that is 70%, in some capacity (backup or another position).