Projecting our recruiting class
So I figured with the overwhelming fixation on Schroedinger's RB, and this article from Rivals, it's a good time to try to project our recruiting class this year.
Per Rivals, who either projects us or LSU as the year's top class:
What Mike Farrell says: "I think Michigan jumped off to a better start last year, but I think I am more impressed this year. The quality of player is about the same, so what I mean by more impressed is that Michigan is more diversified and it is also expanding its footprint. It is getting into some new areas and getting kids. Having a player like Jabrill Peppers on board is huge because of what he brings to the table. I think they have a really good shot at getting both of the top players in the country with Da'Shawn Hand showing serious interest."
What the numbers say: If Michigan can land Hand and continue to round out a solid class around him then it would have the recruit average as well as the bonus points to push to No. 1. As it stands right now, the projections show that the Wolverines will be in for a fight with Ohio State for the top slot in the Big Ten conference. The data indicates that the team should come close to surpassing its total points from last season when it finished No. 5 with 2,661. It doesn't need much more than that to claim a national title in recruiting this year. Set the floor at No. 5 with a ceiling of knocking Alabama off the mountain.
So I'll start this month's WHO DO WE GETTT!!!? thread by structuring it this way - give me a list of 7 commits, which will put us at 21. Order that list by who is most likely to sign on the dotted line, not by who is the most wanted. Also, where do we finish in terms of overall recruiting class. (The answer is 4) My list:
1. Malik McDowell
2. De'Shawn Hand
3. Juju Smith
4. Montae Nicolson
5. Kalen Ballage
6. Leonard Fournette
7. Parrker Westphal
I lived in Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia is not in the South, if that makes sense.
Virginia outside of Loudoun County is southern.
That is like Florida: northern Florida (the Panhandle, primarily) is kind of like the South while the further south you go in Florida the less like the South it is.
I use this sure-fire test to determine if a state is "in the South": Do they put sugar in/on EVERYTHING except cornbread (which is supposed to have sugar)? If the answer is "yes", then they are part of the South.
Alternate test: Do they deep fry everything that isn't a liquid? If "yes", you are in the South.
I grew up in Ohio and went to college in Tennessee. I was horrified when I went to a restaurant and discovered that the green beans had sugar but the cornbread (which tasted like sawdust) did not.
An agrument can be made the very little of Florida is the south, in the sense of southern culture. If Virginia is anything other than the south, it is appalachia, which is very much the south add mountains. I lived in North Carolina and West Virginia, ask anyone born in the south, Virginia is the south.
as "Protecting.."
Drive safely to the BBQ, young men.
We gotta protect our class, Urbz is gonna flip all of them!
I think we only take 4 or 5 more, not 7:
1. McDowell
2. Hand
3. JuJu Smith (better shot at him than most believe IMO; visiting for ND game)
4. Some kid that earns an offer through senior year play
5. Nicholson
We are at about a 5% chance each for Fournette and JuJu. If I were to guess:
Hand
Mcdowell
Nicholson/Westphal
Swain/Williams
Surprise (maybe the Hawaiian)
I'm with you sir. Ive had a good feeling about Hand all along and I just think his personality fits Michigan. I realize Alabama is the hot supemodel who suddenly is interested in him but Michigan has been his on and off again girlfriend along with his old flame VaTech. I have it 65% Michigan/35% Bama/0% Florida (I think Florida is a placeholder). Of course I have no idea but just my gut. McDowell is not a shoo in either- I think he will be down in the South for visits this year and after all that we'll have a better idea. I hope Fournette comes to visit but not having him up here this weekend for an extended stay takes our low chances even lower - even if he came it would be like 10% or less IMO. It is just difficult to get kids out of the DEEP south - not Texas/Florida but that panhandle region (I know I know, Anthony Thomas).
As for everyone else I expect a name or two we have not heard of or is not high on the radar. Dont think Smith is coming but not out of the question. And away we go.
Some of the lists above would have us at or near #1 all time type of class I think. Last I dont really care where we rank in a class as long as its top 10ish - being #4 versus #9 doesnt matter one bit as long as you are bringing in consistent level classes year in and year out. From there its about identifying the right talent for the program and developing them in house. Florida State has a top 5 type class almost every year and has been a nobody since the early 00s despite a junky conference. Michigan under Carr often had the same type of clases but would stumble 2-3 times a year causing great frustration.
Anyhow it is a very good class already - one with "no excuses"- I so badly want "SEC TYPE" defensive lineman so if we get Hand and McDowell I am fine with anyone else joining the coaches are happy with. I think the speed thing is overrated in a few positions but where the SEC kills it is those defensive lineman who run like LBers. Difference makers.
Juju is actually visiting for the OSU game.
I'd bet we get
- Hand
- McDowell
- Nicholson
- 1-2 Wild-card guys who aren't much on the radar right now
1. Malik McDowell
2. De'Shawn Hand
3. Montae Nicholson
4. Parrker Westphal
5. Leonard Fournette
6. late 3 star diamond in the rough
7. late 3 star diamond in the rough
Overall standing, #2
Where is the KNOWLEDGE to tell us what has already transpired?
My list of likely prospects (in order of probability from highest to lowest):
- McDowell - he'll flirt with some SEC schools and scare the H*ll out of those who fret too much over recruiting but he'll end up in Ann Arbor. - 90%
- Hand - I was a big doubter for a long time but I am now pretty confident that he will end up wearing the Maize and Blue. - 75%
- Nicholson - best shot at a true safety left for UM and our depth chart at safety isn't that great, I think that will be enough to get him to AA. - 60%
- LB to be named later - I don't think UM will get any of the LB's they are currently recruiting and will take a late "sleeper"-type.
I think that will close out recruiting. I do think it is possible that UM might land Ballage who could be "blown away" when he (finally) visits Ann Arbor.
You sir, are an optimist.
1. Malik McDowell2. De'Shawn Hand
3. Juju Smith
4. Montae Nicolson
5. Kalen Ballage
6. Leonard Fournette
7. Parrker Westphal
Fournette would be awesome, but, I mean...yeah. Here's my best guess:
- McDowell
- Nicholson
- Hand
- Unknown recruit
- Ballage
- Westphal
- Smith
- Fournette
We are gonna get a surprise like always. I'm hoping it turns out like this: Hand, McDowell, Smith, Westphal, Nicholson, and Fournette. But don't forget about Hilliman. Hoke and company have been known to change a kids mind. I want Fournette but I hear Hilliman is a sleeper as well. Lets get it done coaches.
Malik McDowell
Blackjack McDowell
Hand
Foot
Renaldo Nehemiah
Sammie Davis Jr. Jr.
Mini Snoop
Let's not forget about flipping a top-rated ND recruit when Brian Kelly either flirts with or goes to the NFL.
I will just group it, not rank it
Most likely: Hand, McDowell, Nicholson
Decent shot (25% or better): Smith, Dickerson, Ballage, Williams, Westphal, Swain
Not physically impossible, but I will be fairly surprised if it does happen: Fournette, maybe we make up ground with Lattimore or Morgan or someone, Jackson, Dravon Henry, etc.
Then maybe someone we aren't hearing about not like Hooker or a three star we haven't heard mentioned yet.
All this Fournette talk is allowing us to forget, we DID sign the #1 RB, according to some sites, last year in Derrick Green. Hell, DeVeon Smith is a very quality back as well. L.F. is not leaving the South. Period.
We have limited spots left in this class, we need to look elsewhere.