Projecting Michigan Basketball's Big Ten Tournament Seeding/Matchup
Since every Big Ten team only has one conference game remaining, I decided to go ahead and look at what Michigan's possible seeding/opponents look like for the conference tournament. This will get heavy into the different tiebreakers and scenarios. TL;DR is that Michigan has clinched the 8/9 matchup as tiebreakers and the different situations prevent them from jumping up to #7.
B1G Basketball Tournament Seeding Tiebreakers: https://bigten.org/news/2019/9/12/2020-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx
Current B1G Standings
1.) Maryland (13-6)
2.) MSU (13-6)
3.) Wisconsin (13-6)
4.) Illinois (12-7)
5.) OSU (11-8)
6.) Penn State (11-8)
7.) Iowa (11-8)
8.) Michigan (10-9)
9.) Rutgers (10-9)
10.) Indiana (9-10)
11.) Purdue (9-10)
12.) Minnesota (7-12)
13.) Northwestern (2-17)
14.) Nebraska (2-17)
Who Will get the 1 Seed?
Wisconsin gets the 1 seed if they win @IU this weekend. They win any tiebreaker situation as they did not lose the head-to-head with Maryland, MSU, or Illinois and they have the best group winning % of anyone they could tie with.
MSU gets the 1 seed if they beat OSU this weekend and Wisconsin loses. They would win a tiebreaker with Maryland since they split, but would have the better winning % against Wisconsin and/or Illinois (3rd seed).
Maryland gets the 1 seed ONLY if they beat Michigan and BOTH MSU and Wisconsin lose this weekend.
In short, Wisconsin has the best chance at the 1 seed as they control their own destiny while MSU has the next best shot. Maryland's only path is if both MSU and Wisconsin lose.
Who Would Get the 2 and 3 Seeds?
If Wisconsin gets the 1 and Maryland and MSU are in a tie for 2nd, MSU would get the 2nd seed due to tiebreakers. Maryland is pretty much guaranteed the 3 seed if they are not the 1 due to tiebreakers.
Why Michigan is Stuck in the 8/9 Game
The only way Michigan could have gotten out an 8/9 match-up is if they got in a 2-team tiebreaker at 11-9 with Iowa and MSU was the 1 seed. This is now impossible because for it to just be a 2-team tiebreaker with Iowa, OSU would have to beat MSU which would in turn prevent MSU from getting the 1 seed.
Michigan would not get the 7 seed with any combination of a 3+ team tiebreaker as the group tiebreakers all break with Michigan landing at 8.
Michigan's 8/9 Matchup and Potential Path
The only teams Michigan could play in the 8/9 game are Rutgers or Purdue. Coincidentally, these two teams play each other tomorrow in West Lafayette. Michigan essentially will play the winner of that game no matter what.
A Rutgers win would place them alone in 9th.
A Purdue win could place them in either a 2-team, 3-team, or 4-team tie with Michigan, Rutgers, and IU. Michigan comes out on top in any of these tiebreaker situations which is why they are guaranteed the 8 seed. Purdue would win any tiebreaker for the 9 seed given the current tiebreakers.
Michigan will either play Rutgers or Purdue in the 8/9 game and with a win would have to play one of Maryland, MSU, or Wisconsin. The most likely outcome is either Wisconsin or MSU at the 1 seed.
Michigan's path most likely will looks like the below:
Round 1 Quarterfinals Semi-Finals Finals
Rutgers/Purdue > Wisconsin/MSU > OSU/Illinois/Penn State > Maryland/Whoever 2 seed is
As much as I would love to beat MSU again, I would almost rather beat Rutgers/Purdue and then get revenge on Wisconsin in that Quarterfinals match-up.
Masterful job OP. This must’ve taken some time going through all the tiebreakers since the standings are a traffic jam.
Thank you! Yeah I avoided trying to figure out the 4-7 seeds because that's where the real mess is. Thankfully the tiebreakers make sense and there is separation between the top-3 teams as well as the bottom teams.
Per Ace's post, M still has a tiny chance at the 7 seed. I thought this was the case if Michigan is tied with Iowa (and only Iowa) at 11-9 but you're saying it's impossible. Any further clarification?
Wow thank you OP. This required no small amount of work (and math) and is much appreciated by this poster.
Great, informative post. Good job!
The 1 seed is actually incorrect. If Michigan beats Maryland, MSU gets the 1 seed. This is due to record against teams ranked #3 in the conference.
To save you a bunch of time:
This is incorrect.
MSU would get the 1 seed if Michigan beats Maryland AND Indiana beats Wisconsin. If Wisconsin beats IU, then it's a 2-way tie for first between MSU and Wisconsin at 14-6.
In this case, the first tie-breaker is head-to-head where MSU and Wisconsin split. The second tiebreaker is record against the #3 team which would have to be Maryland due to tiebreakers.
MSU split against Maryland and Wisconsin went 1-0. It goes by winning % which would make Wisconsin the 1 seed and MSU the 2 seed.
And my source on how these tiebreakers work is from the B1G website: https://bigten.org/news/2019/9/12/2020-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx
That's only if Iowa upset Illinois on the road. If Illinois wins, Maryland and Illinois tie for 3rd place. Wisconsin 1-1 vs those 2 teams and MSU 3-1. Therefore MSU gets the 1.
Wisconsin does not control its own destiny at all.
Great catch by you and SpartanInA2. Wisconsin doesn't control their own destiny as I originally thought, but I would still consider them the most likely to get the #1 seed in my opinion.
It also doesn't really change Michigan's seeding and/or their potential quarterfinals match-up between either Wisconsin or MSU
If Illinois beats Iowa and Michigan beats Maryland, then Illinois and Maryland would be tied for 3rd place. MSU went 3-1 against those teams and Wisconsin went 1-1, so MSU would get the 1 seed. If Iowa beats Illinois, then Maryland would be the only 3rd place team, and Wisconsin would get the 1 seed as they went 1-0 against Maryland compared to 1-1 for MSU.
Big Ten Rules, section 4-A-2-a
Edit: MN beat me to it. Honestly I wouldn't be disappointed with the 2 seed. I certainly wouldn't mind not playing you guys in our first game.
That last point you made is a good one. The double-bye is great, but you would have 4 full days in between games. Granted Purdue or Rutgers could always beat us and then you have a rather simple path.
Actually, per this site:
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
If Michigan, Ohio State and Rutgers all win, Michigan moves up to #7 (to play either Indiana or Purdue).
It isn't quite that simple. This scenario would also need Illinois to beat Iowa or else Michigan would be #8. It would also require OSU going to East Lansing and beating a hot MSU team.
It's possible, but a lot of things need to break Michigan's way for that to happen.
Great catch regardless
You're correct - didn't see that one. So Mich, Ohio St, Rutgers and Illinois wins would give Michigan the #7 seed.
Thanks!
One other game we didn't originally look at: Penn State losing to Northwestern removes the #7 seed possibility for Michigan.
Should be a really good tournament. You could easily see anyone in maybe the top 9-11 winning it
I would be shocked if it was anyone either than Michigan, MSU, or Wisconsin
Using the B1G simulator I was able to get a situation where Michigan is a 7:
UW over IU
PSU over NW
Rutgers over Purdue
Ill over Iowa
UM over Maryland
Minn over Nebraska
OSU over MSU
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
Edit: Above comments beat me to it
So then the question is...what is the preferred 1 seed? Options are MSU, Maryland, and Wisconsin. I'll say Wisconsin for the purpose of avenging that home loss. Then MSU because that means we beat Maryland and Izzo is annoying, he said today "we've faced more adversity than Carter's got liver pills", which is a phrase I've never heard and is also annoying.
Do not want to see Staee in the Big Ten Tournament under any circumstances. Delaney will screw Michigan and make sure MSU wins.
Just like this season's game at Crisler, both games in 2017-18, the football games in 2018 and 2019, etc.
Also, Jim Delany is no longer the Big Ten commissioner. He stepped down on January 1st.
Yeah, so, we've gone over this topic before. Jim Delany is somewhere sitting in a lounge chair wearing sweat pants and munching on stale cheetos. He's no longer the B1G commissioner.
If we didn't see MSU in the 2018 tournament we never would've gotten Charles laughing in Nick Ward's fat face
Gotta take risks to make memories
Ugh. I know that adding more conference games meant that there were going to be more instances of playing a team three times, but I don't want to play a team we've already beaten twice. Purdue can easily go hot, and while I'm not worried that Rutgers will do that, I don't want to give those mouth breathers another shot at our unbeaten streak against them.
If we win the first game, I feel pretty comfortable though. I think dating back to 2016, every big ten tournament 1 seed has either lost to Michigan or won the whole tournament (MSU last year)
The Purdue-Rutgers game should be interesting, Purdue is last four out in Lundardi's and Rutgers is last four out in Palm (CBS), have to figure the loser will be out of the tourney and the winner fighting for their tournament lives.
I’ll be in section 2 right row 14 for big ten tourny