Preview: Hockey at Wisc Nov 2020

ESSENTIALS

WHAT:  #6 MICHIGAN (0-0-0 B10, 2-0-0) at #14 Wisconsin Badgers (2-0-0 B10, 2-0-0)

                      You’re just gonna have to accept the Star Wars analogies and press on.

WHERE: The Troll (- nope that’s basketball) Kohl Center; MadTown, WI

WHEN: Tape meets vulcanized rubber at 7 PM EST Thursday, 11/19 & Fri, 11/20

THE LINE: It's cawlidge hawkey, you degenerate

TELEVISION: FSD for those in the footprint. Streams will be posted in the game thread by heroes we need, but don’t deserve. IDK who has done these games since I moved back to NYS.

RADIO: Radio Hockey >>FS Regional>>>>>>>> BTN+ Hockey

• PBP: The venerable Al Randall
• Analyst: 1998 NATIONAL CHAMPION and native NYer Andrew Merrick I didn’t catch who that color guy was?

TICKETS: LOL it's 2020, bro. Wisconsin is beyond Thunderdome. Do not go to there.

WEATHER: 

clear, mid-60s at the lower level; low-70s in the upper ring and press box level

Chance of Zamboni: 100%

Chance of Jumping Around to early 90s Hip Hop: 25%

OVERVIEW

Weekly Podcast: CONSUME!

Alex Drain MGoBlog Season Preview Part I Part II Part III

Wisconsin has been a bit of an enigma since Tony Granato (being a Certified Hockey Name™ and thus a slam dunk hire for the Badgers) took over the UW program five years ago. Long time head man Mike Eaves had reasonable, if underwhelming, success in Madison until the bottom fell out his last two years leading to a combined 12 wins in ‘14-15 and ‘15-16. Much like M when Pearson took over, Granato began assembling his Death Star and everyone expected UW to be fully armed and operational by 2018 or so. Much to Director Granato’s dismay however, the Badgers won a paltry 14 games each of the last three years with plenty of high NHL draft picks on the roster for at least the last two. Disorganization defensively and putrid goaltending were the primary culprits. 

     

                                  Careful not to choke on your aspirations, Director Granato.

In an inspiring turnabout for UW fans, the Badgers opened the season of COVID with an impressive 2-0, 5-3 sweep of Notre Dame, who plays a lock-down defensive and very organized system run by college hockey coaching legend Jeff Jackson. Although the Irish are not overly talented this year, the UW sweep may indicate that this Badger Battle Station is at least armed, if not yet fully operational. You should already know about Michigan’s opener, an obliteration of what we can reasonably assume was a solid, if unspectacular ASU team, 8-1 and 3-0. Here’s a play-by play from the Yost Star last weekend: 

                            No! Arizona St. is peaceful!  We have no weapons! You can't possibly-

                                        

MATCHUPS

Defense vs UW: Wisconsin has seven (!) drafted forwards, including two (!) first rounders in sophomores Cole Caufield (19G, 17A, 13.6Sh% last year) and Dylan Holloway (8G, 9A, 9.5Sh%). However, they lost fellow classmate Alex Turcotte (9G, 17A, 13.4Sh% in only 29GP) to the NHL after just one year (see Don, it happens to other teams too) and Holloway is at the same Canadian World Jr. team camp to which M’s Owen Power was invited but did not go - that’s a long story. The UW offensive firepower doesn’t end there of course, but this being an attempt at a brief preview, I’ll just say that the Badgers are as talented as almost any team in the country so this is probably an even match up against the Wolverine blueliners. However Owen Power, the new M forwards’ attention to detail defensively and the team speed for M were all incredibly impressive, so I may give a slight edge to Michigan. Then again, the odd man rushes and power plays M gave up last week will assuredly lead to goals against this week. How’s that for hedging?

KEY MATCHUP: Owen realizing his true Power vs. a MUCH more offensively skilled and athletic team in UW. Also respect your defensive role on the ice, M forwards.

                                    

         If Power goes from ‘Adam’ to ‘He-Man’ *this* weekend, he’s probably a legit #1 overall in                                                               the ‘21 draft. He may be anyway. 

Offense vs ASU: Well, I’d say the new guys for M adapted pretty, prettaaay, prrrrretay well against ASU last week. Matty Beniers (the Harvard COVID decommit) was all over the ice and around the puck, Kent Johnson had a goal and four assists on the weekend, but IMO the story was the depth of scoring from the M team: all but 5 skaters who saw the ice for Michigan earned at least a point on the weekend. Also, the “checking” line of Rabbe, Van Wyhe and Moyle displayed skill & production closer to that of a 2nd line (for which they were listed) than the grind-line most figured them to be. If this past weekend is any indication of the season to come, this may be the deepest M forward corps the Wolverines have had since… 2008? Or (gulp) 1997? Even if Johnny Beecher is scratched out of an abundance of caution, the forward depth should absorb the blow. Wisconsin returns three upper class D-men draftees (none in the 1st round), lose 1st rounder K'Andre Miller (7G, 11A, 8.9Sh%), 7th rounder Wyatt Kalynuk (7G, 21A, 6.2Sh%) a year early to the NHL, and only add two freshmen. So they appear to be mostly who they were the last couple years, if a bit less talented, on the blue line. The big wild card is whether this truly is the Badger team that somehow let their top three scorers from a year ago fall below level in +/- (!!) or the team that gave up just 3 goals last weekend to a solid Notre Dame team admittedly bereft of offensive production. Your guess is as good as mine. Advantage: Michigan’s depth.

                                        

                  Benny Hill, hearing that UW’s top 3 scorers were -18 combined in ‘19-20. 

KEY MATCHUP: Wisconsin defensive organization pre-COVID vs Wisconsin defensive organization post-COVID. Is there a difference? Too early to be definitive, IMO.

Special teams vs ASU: Wisc last week vs. ND: 2/6 on the PP; 3/4 on the PK. Michigan vs ASU: 4/10 PP; 9/10 PK. ND is likely a better team overall than ASU and each team has enough skill to take advantage on the PP, but M may be the better team when down a man and, with York and/or Power contributing at the point on the PP, I think M has a better chance to be successful when the ice is tilted one way or the other. This of course assumes M stays out of the box at a reasonable rate (GULP).

KEY MATCHUP: AHHHH YOU STAY OUTTA THAT BOX.

Goaltending vs ASU: Michigan has B10 Goalie of the Year Strauss Mann (1.85 GAA .939 SV% last year) between the pipes. UW does not. In fact, their goaltending was so bad a year ago they cleared out all three (!!!) ‘tenders from last year's roster and brought in a Tech transfer and two freshmen. Nonetheless, expect a decent showing from senior Plymouth native Robby Beydoun who made the U.P.-to-WI move over the summer. Michigan also has a 3rd round draft pick on the bench in Erik Portillo, who I expect we'll see eventually but who the hell knows, you know? Who do I look like, Professor Trelawney? Give me a break. Anywho, this is advantage Michigan, again.

                                               

                I seeeee… Portillo getting a start in net…. this weeeeek. Or is it next week? Some time                                               soooooon. I’m sure of it. Hey wait, I’m not in Star Wars?!

KEY MATCHUP: Strauss Mann vs the sign over his bed that reads: “Perfection *is* attainable and when not attained, defines your utter failure.” Seems harsh, to me, but that's Strauss for ya. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Also Michigan vs Puck LuckTM.

INTANGIBLES

Worry if:

• M players keep getting put into timeout two minutes at a time by those zebra guys

• You start thinking about football. Seriously, just stop. Go see a professional if you have to. STOP IT.

• The turn tables, and UW puck control leads to M getting caught on long shifts in their own zone.

Cackle with knowing glee if:

• UW looks anything close to what ASU looked like

• There are no odd man rushes for UW 

• Owen Power points an obnoxiously large sword skyward, yells “By the Power of GreySkull, I have the POWERRRRR!” Then points the sword to the UW mascot and it transforms into a real, live, wolverine. 

                

                   What happened to the Star Wars references? Pick a lane, man.

Loss will cause me to… Start comparing ASU hockey to Minnesota football in much more detail than anyone should. Honestly, this seems like a split weekend, lean toward win and a tie for M. This may be me being conservative with limited sample size to go on, however. Game one losses give me the willies, though.

Win will cause me to… Start comparing BC, NoDak, Duluth and Denver to Michigan in more detail than anyone should. 

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: LOL, it's cawlidge hawkey, but Michigan has better goaltending, more consistent defensive play going back most of the last two years, and more depth at forward. There’s more talent on the blueline (and at forward, but not by that much) than Wisconsin too. The Badgers will be more talented than ASU for sure, but I have doubts that they are much different than previous years. Their goalie *has* to be an upgrade from last year’s results (sub 0.900 SV%, woof) and that would be a pretty big upgrade for this UW team. It’s easy to progress from awful to mediocre and a league average goalie would be just that. It’s both an undersell of this M team’s performance last week and cop-out to predict a split, but this weekend’s results heavily depend on, 1) M staying level in PIM and 2) your guess as to whether this UW team is the same or significantly better than last year. They will be better in goal unless COVID strikes all three netminders. The rest? I’m betting about the same. But that makes them dangerous enough, especially on the road with a very short turnaround. 

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow night after game two:

• M takes too many penalties in a game that either leads to a loss or or makes a game closer than it should be. Strauss Mann isn’t Superman. Unless he is. Someone should make a Superman logo, in maize & blue, with his number on it. Also, leave the kryptonite at home.

• M has more dominant play than one would expect against a talented team like UW, though nothing close to what we saw last week, of course. Depth at forward manifests in at least a period or two where shots or CORSI (and hopefully goals} are pretty well dominated by M.

• M wins 6-1, Ties 3-3