Playoff Rankings
- UGA
- OSU
- Michigan
- TCU
- Vols
- LSU
- USC
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Utah
- Penn State
- Oregon
- UNC
- Mississippi
- KSU
- UCLA
- Washington
- Notre Dame
- FSU
- UCF
- Tulane
- Oklahoma State
- Oregon State
- NC State
- Cinci
Rooting interests are Vols sleepwalk through a game, Georgia wins the SEC, USC loses to Charbonnet and friends, and the committee correctly realizes that the ACC sucks.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:18 PM ^
We're going to have to beat Ohio and with the B1G or we're out.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:31 PM ^
I think that needs to be the mentality. The committee showed in their first reveal that they don't respect Michigan (or Georgia's) early season schedule. I can't imagine that they would change their tune.
Georgia got their big win over Tennessee. Michigan has its opportunity on Nov. 26 in Columbus.
But if it's fun, TCU and USC can very easily lose a game. And LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
Assuming those three loses, you're back with Tennessee, Alabama, and the ACC Champion...with 2 open spots in the CFP.
I'll say Tennessee goes to #3 (ugh...not a good matchup), OSU gets in at #4, Bama is #5, and I personally think UNC beats Clemson...so Carolina #6. If Clemson wins, maybe flip them with Bama, though I still think Bama should be #5 as they are the better team.
(EDIT: And thats not because I think Bama is a juggernaut, I'm just really down on Clemson this year and UNC doesn't play defense well enough - there would be a gap between #4 and #5. I think Michigan is better than Bama as well. With those three losses that I said above...I think your CFP is set).
November 15th, 2022 at 10:47 PM ^
i kind of think that was the only mentality anyway
November 15th, 2022 at 11:04 PM ^
I don't think Bama jumps a 1-loss Michigan unless it's a blowout. Their best win is probably at Texas or Ole Miss and neither was particularly inspiring. I do agree that if UM loses they are out of the playoffs.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:00 AM ^
Clearly not. M is beating OSU for the 2 spot. Then he has OSU at #4.
November 16th, 2022 at 4:12 AM ^
Exactly. The first reveal was saying that Michigan has to basically win out to get in. They see the same team as last year and that team had lost their playoff game in the first 5 minutes. Michigan has to win out to get in for sure. They'll prioritize just about any other single loss team if UM loses to OSU and there isn't another viable option. I think UM only has priority over a one loss TCU in that top-5 if all hypothetically had a single loss.
I also think the only two loss team that can get in is LSU if they win The SEC. If they win out they're in, even over a one loss Michigan.
However, I think UM may be in regardless if their only loss is close to OSU while LSU, TCU & USC lose any game from here out.
Finally, I think The ACC is out no matter what. UNCs ND loss was bad even with ND pulling some wins together. It was bad. Clemson, too. I don't think there is any scenario where an ACC team is in. PAC12 rests with USC and B12 rests with TCU. It could very well be a 2-SEC & 2-B1G Playoff.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
Maybe an unpopular opinion and I might get blasted for this...but are we much different than the team that lost the CFP game in the first five minutes? Honest question, I would really like someone to set me straight/show me the light so I can be a positive person and not a negative Nancy.
We went into that game with an elite defense (statistically, and with two sack machines), amazing run game, and good enough QB play. Are we much different now? There was that stat that last year at this point, we had more plays for 40+ yards than we do now and we still weren't considered "explosive" then. I love our team and I think we're very good, but I'm not seeing much difference in the two teams. I think we have the recipe to beat Ohio again and then obviously win the B1G championship, but I'm terrified of having to play Georgia again.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
I think the interior lines are better than last year. That alone should allow us to hang in there for a while longer. The defense in year two of the scheme is more cohesive, but obviously missing the edge rushers. Georgia lost half their starters to the NFL. I think the game will be more competitive this year, but UGA is all that and a bag of chips. I'm resigned, but not really terrified.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:16 PM ^
2022 Michigan > 2021 Michigan but it isn't by a ton. Key difference is the 2022 O-Line is like an NFL line. Just about offsets losing two defensive legends.
I think one thing we have all been waiting for is the JJ breakout game. Has not happened yet (mostly because it hasn't been necessary) but I think we all agree that it is just a matter of time before it does. Maybe OSU?
November 16th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
Michigan isn't and it's a fair question. It's a massive reason why Michigan would get very little support even with a lone, close loss to OSU. UM isn't sexy. They wear you down and make you submit eventually as opposed to throwing for 400 yards and 5TDs a game.
The committee doesn't want boring games as much as they want to find the 4 best teams. Much more goes in to their system than who they think would do what on a neutral field but they absolutely don't see Michigan as a team with options. They see them as a team that either bashes their opponent or will get run off the field vs elite teams if they can't.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
If UNC beats Clemson they would have a better resume than Michigan without a win over OSU. We can dunk on the ACC all we want but the Big Ten is absolute ass this year.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
No, they still probably wouldn't.
Their SoS right now is 76th. Our is 82nd which is very close. They are not only in the ACC, they're in the crap division of the ACC. So they haven't even played many of the decent ACC teams (like FSU, Cuse, etc).
We finish with the third toughest SoS, they finish with the 8th so in the end, it will be very close from a metrics standpoint as to which team played the more difficult schedule.
Our loss would be A LOT better than theirs (a home loss to three+ loss ND). Our best win would be comparable (two loss PSU v two loss Clemson). Our wins over Iowa and Illinois would stack up just fine against their wins over...uh...NC State and Duke?
They'd have a conference title but we'd have vastly superior metrics and eye test. They beat App St and Wake Forest by 2 each, Miami, UVA and Duke by 3 each. Georgia St. by a TD! They have an absolutely terrible defense that the committee clearly doesn't like.
They won't finish ahead of us...unless we lose to Illinois.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:21 PM ^
I'm OK with that. The Game is the moment for either team to make a statement.
If we lose, then our only win of consequence is PSU, and that's probably not enough to move the needle.
If OSU loses, they blew it on their home field - and their best win would be PSU, too.
Let's just take care of business and not leave it to chance.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:36 AM ^
Yep, The Game is a quarterfinal in my mind. Win and advance. Lose and off to Pasadena.
November 16th, 2022 at 7:21 AM ^
ND being ranked is a joke. They get credit for beating Clemson who was overrated. ND lost to Marshall at home and Stanford. The committee talking about Michigan's OOC, and ND is getting credit for name recognition.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
In addition to those losses, they have beat 9-1 Clemson, 6-4 Syracuse, and 9-1 UNC. Their losses were bad, but leaving out a 9-1 UNC team (only loss to ND) with a dark horse heisman QB candidate is an odd way to prove a point.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^
Every last SEC team would be in the playoff with one loss. Every last one of them!
UM fans “Win at #2 and go undefeated or else”
Something is very wrong with this. When a one loss Ole Miss has a better shot at the playoff than U of M and our fans agree something has gone horribly wrong.
November 16th, 2022 at 7:24 AM ^
This is the classic, well supported by Michigan fans, BPONE take...but it is not so. This ranking clearly says that TCU must win out but leaves a friendly door with a nice opening for Michigan to enter should they lose a well-played game AT Columbus. If they wanted to send a message to Michigan that they had to win out to get in they would have put them at #4...because TCU is heavily expected to win out and yet they put them at #4. This committee, for all the criticisms they receive, know football a gazillion times better than the partisans and they value what their eyes tell them. The fact is that there is a significant likelihood that the last two weeks are going to assist the committee in defining their choices here-that is how it has always worked out. My guess is that right now, if the committee could simply follow their eye-test, they would have a CFP of Georgia, OSU, Tennessee and Michigan-in that order of ranking. And, they may do this in the end-barring unanticipated chaos. The committee's most highly valued evaluation is their own eyes-whether the fans and media like it or not.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
TCU is heavily expected to win out
They are? Not by me. And not by FPI which has that likelihood at 17.5%.
They are a very slim favorite this week @Baylor, plus the Big 12 championship game likely vs a K St team that torched them before *both* their top 2 QBs got hurt (and are now healthy). I don't even rule out Iowa St beating TCU.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:19 PM ^
TCU needs to lose.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
Absolutely NOT
We NEED to beat OSU.
I have no interest in a rematch with OSU.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:55 PM ^
If there is a rematch, it would be in the championship game. I can think of worse things.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:58 PM ^
That sounds terrible.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:59 PM ^
A rematch in the National Championship Game sounds terrible?
You're in the National Championship Game. How can that sound terrible in ANY scenario?
November 15th, 2022 at 11:05 PM ^
Losing to OSU in the national championship would be pretty devastating.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^
Beating OSU in the National Championship would be pretty fucking incredible!
November 16th, 2022 at 8:41 AM ^
UNC beat Duke in the Final Four last year. It was incredible for UNC. It was devastating for Duke.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:27 PM ^
And losing to Georgia wouldn't?
I don't get all of the "losing" talk.
Coming up with 10 scenarios on how to back into the CFP...worried about losing to OSU in a NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME.
So answer me this...
You all are basically saying you'd rather lose in the semifinals to Tennessee rather than RISK losing to OSU in a national championship game, simply by being in it.
That is fucking crazy.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:57 PM ^
I just read this part of the thread. I don't see what you're seeing.
What I see, as we have been sort of discussing further down, are people who want to beat OSU and then not see OSU in the playoffs--not by losing in the Semis, not by us backing into the CFP (?), but by us beating OSU and then OSU being left out in the cold.
Give us OSU on Nov. 26 because our plan is to win that game and then they can sit at home until whatever bowl they get. Rose, I suppose.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:03 AM ^
Then we have to crush them by about 15 points. Maybe like 42-27 so there's no chance of them backing in.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
There will be even more incentive for the victor to run up the score this year ...
November 16th, 2022 at 8:08 AM ^
"You all are basically saying you'd rather lose in the semifinals to Tennessee rather than RISK losing to OSU in a national championship game, simply by being in it."
Exactly zero people are saying that.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:23 PM ^
Wouldn't it be awesome to beat them twice in one season? Especially in a climate-controlled environment where they cannot bitch about the weather? It would be so cathartic.
November 16th, 2022 at 7:58 AM ^
Do you think if OSU is in losing to us that they’ll keep us apart lol !!! They would never want a B1G NC championship game !! It will be a semi final rematch
November 16th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
This is exactly what would happen. The committee only only wants SEC teams to not re-match in the semis. By the season and the score of the SEC championship game, Alabama and UGA should've met as 1 vs 4 or even 2 vs 3 at best.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:32 AM ^
I'm pretty sure there was a rematch for the Natty last year and the team that lost the first game came back and won the whole enchilada.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:57 PM ^
You're not getting that anyway (a semifinal rematch).
Tennessee will be #3 if TCU loses.
I'm not sure I understand the concern or the co-signs.
You say, "Absolutely NOT." I'll counter with "ABSO-FUCKING-LUTELY."
Get TCU out of there, knowing Tennessee will be #3.
Georgia beats LSU and the B1G is sitting pretty comfortably with an expectation of two teams in the CFP (I personally think you want USC to lose a game as well to truly breathe easy if you're Kevin Warren).
November 16th, 2022 at 2:07 AM ^
Yes, if USC wins out they'll absolutely be in over the 2nd place Big East team. The committee somehow sees something in them now despite having a weak schedule. If they beat UCLA, ND and Oregon/Utah they'll absolutely move ahead of the loser of UM-OSU. Need them to lose again.
And yes, need TCU to lose twice or once by a wide margin (double digits in a non-competitive game).
November 16th, 2022 at 2:22 AM ^
USC will lose one of its last 3 games. USC has trouble stopping the run and that’s a strong suit of UCLA and the Domers. If USC beats those 2 then Utah or Oregon might await them in the Pac 12 title game. I don’t see the Trojans running that gauntlet.
November 16th, 2022 at 8:06 AM ^
A rematch in the Semis isn't the only type of "rematch".
November 16th, 2022 at 5:23 AM ^
Feel free to disagree, but to me a Columbus victory is the cake. Anything beyond that is just pretty icing.
November 16th, 2022 at 7:56 AM ^
It won't be a cake walk, but I sure do agree.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:22 PM ^
Penn State and LSU deserve to play each other in a bowl game.
Go UCLA.
Fuck Tennessee.
That about covers it.
EDIT: Fuck Clemson too, just in case.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:36 PM ^
I think everyone and their sister will push for LSU to play ND for the story...
November 15th, 2022 at 10:40 PM ^
Good story sure — but LSU is NYD6 bound (in some manner) unless they lose one of their last 2 regular season games. And there’s basically NO path for Notre Dame to make a NYD6 Bowl.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:55 PM ^
Until it happens and then we are all like WTF is this?!
November 16th, 2022 at 12:30 AM ^
If ND beats USC they will.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:08 AM ^
ND at 9-3 with wins over UNC, Clemson and USC wouldn't be in a NY6 bowl?
Unless there simply isn't a spot for an independent, it seems like the powers that be would do anything to put that team in a NY6 bowl.
November 16th, 2022 at 6:18 AM ^
Notre Dame is king of getting bigger bowl bids than they deserve. Not saying they'll get a NY6 this season, but if they were to win out, would you honestly be shocked if they did get one?
November 16th, 2022 at 2:21 PM ^
God bless the SEC
3 losses and playing in a NY6 game. Good god.