Over under set at 7.5 wins
Another restaurant bowl it is! Ugh.
ThadMattasagoblin says15-0 baby
7 wins would be disastrous.
7 wins is the minimum Hoke needs to keep his job for another year. I think if Mich doesn't reach 7, he'll be in real trouble. 2015 is the make or break year for Hoke. If he doesn't have the team playing at a high level by then, he likely never will.
I think it's eight. Seven would be four straight years of regression. Gotta post better than we did last season at least, and that's eight wins. Even that's dicey since there's been very few coaches in Michigan history that have had that many crap seasons in a row and stuck around much longer after.
Anything less than 7.82 is an abject failure.
Until the OL actually pushes the DL back for a 4 yd gain then yea that is more than fair. Hoke and his staff have to prove it this year. Simple as that, not like their are expectations of greatness so the pressure should be minimal.
7.5 over/under is a joke. Looks like they took last year's record and set the line a half point up or down. If you could actully bet these odds they would be put out of business by the end of the season.
Vegas sets odds so that half the people will bet each side of the line. There is no way that half the people would take the under.
I'll take the over.
its -140 if you take the over.
Non gambling man here. What's that mean?
I think it's a fair assessment, but I think we can easily outperform it. We have several games that are tossups, if we can improve significantly from last year we can easily sweep those tossups and end up 10-2 or 9-3. If we don't improve all that much it could be a long year.
9-3 and 10-2 predictions are fine and I think we have a real chance at that, but the reality is that 8-4 would be a pretty good season at this stage given our youth and our schedule.
8-4 in Hoke's 4th season wouldn't be pretty good.
if we didn't have RS Senior DG. If Morris were starting 8-4 with a bowl win would be nice. But a RSS QB should equate to more wins
Devin must be more accountable, his inability to provide all of the offense last year was embarrassing.
I don't know, a really young o-line is a pretty good excuse. If they can't run the ball or protect him there's only so much he can do.
Safest bet I've made in a while.
Bowl game is up for grabs.
Wins? We almost had 8 last year with the worst run offense in the country
I will honestly pile on the over at 7.5 call me a homer or whatever i think UM turns a corner this year with improved offensive execution and a senior QB.
is a good bet.
I figure the over/under is 8.5 (regular season) with 9 wins more likely than 8. Are they actually taking bets on this data? [shakes head]
No. They are NOT taking bets on this data.
I'll take the under and a Prozac.
I'm a pessismist, but this is silly. We're winning more than 7 games.
I am pragmatic, but I think the over is a good bet. 8 or 9 wins.
Like I said, I see some tossup games, tossup being less than 60% chance of win either way IMO, but having underrated Maryland and Utah teams come into the Big House makes them wins IMO. Penn State at the Big House in a revenge game I count as a win too. Northwestern is a tossup on the road. IU could be a tough game on the road. ND, MSU, and Ohio State all on the road is very tough, but I think we win 1 of 3 at least. I just see 9-3 or 8-4, I would be very disappointed with 7-5. That would likely mean that either Maryland or Utah beat us at the Big House.
Maryland is under rated, we cannot overlook them, they return their team intact and had some real good road wins last season.
Point of fact, Maryland has the exact same line that we do... 7.5 wins (over -140, under +100)...
Can I find a Vegas book to bet on this?
I'd bet the over. I have us 9-3 so that looks like easy money to me.
If it's under, put on a helmet and go hide in the basement, because it's not going to be pretty around here. Not one bit.
That'd be nice.
Jabrill Peppers will not allow us to go 8-4.
times 1000...Jabril and the "new" defense as well as Nuss will get us to 10 or 11 wins
Over. We have to win the big ten this year. No more excuses.
It has to be over. It better be over...
If you used Sagarin numbers from last year (the most current available) agains the most current numbers from the opponents on this year's schedule, you could probably baseline the season at roughly 9-3 if you assumed for the moment that a positive projected margin of victory meant "win" regardless. Granted, if you actually calculate the projected margins this way (with 2013 numbers, mind you), not all wins are equally likely, but there is something to make you believe that last year's team plus additions and experience (plus maybe a revised scheme) could make 9-3 an achievable baseline.
I didn't totally understand that reference..."achievable baseline". In my mind baseline is the lowest possible likely record, no? And, achievable is more like what is possible within reason. So to me baseline is like 7 wins and achievable is more like 10. I certainly don't picture 9 wins as baseline. That would be pretty optimisitc IMO. I mean when is the last time they beat a ranked team on the road? That automatically gives you 3 losses right off the bat (ND, MSU, OSU). And, PSU and NW won't be gimmies. The fan in me tells me UM can win 3 of those games, but that doesn't mean they will. And, I'm sure they'll drop one game that no one expects them to because well...they always do.
Edit: wrong thread
Staee was at 9.5 and Ohio was at 10.5 FWIW. Those teams are pretty close IMO, State's out of conference trip to Oregon is why they are different.
1 meaningful road game, which is Oregon, while UM and OSU play at EL.
It's conceivable that all three have the same team capability entering 2014 and the schedule alone decides with MSU 2x at home, OSU 1x at home and UM 0X in that mix.
I think we get nine but I still complain and drink like a fool every Saturday. I'm sorry.
Flipping embarrassing. Under 8 wins with this schedule? C'mon man!
The schedule with all the tough games on the road?
Three tough games on the road still puts U-M at 9 wins even if they lose those games.
Especially if the bowl game is included.
I'd set it at 8.5 and then see what people picked.
7.5 wins. Sigh.....sadly, this is Michigan football now. Until this team proves otherwise, it's hard for me to imagine them winning more than 7-8 games a year.
8 should be the minimum with 9 very possible and 10 thinly possible.
8.5 would be a better line.
Turning the corner. So much that I think we win 11 games with the bowl game. Pipkins will be back and will be a beast in the middle, freeing up space for Henry/Poggi next to him. More defensive aggressiveness in our secondary.We will have more actual playing experience than the last two seasons despite so few seniors. Defense will carry this team but the OLine WILL be much improved, making offense a bigger threat then the previous 2 seasons. Hoke will earn an extension after this season.
Any chance the downfall began with Appy State and WILL END with Appy State?
And then John Bacon can write a book about the uncanniness of the situation?
Brandon's plan alllllll allllooonnngggg
I'll take that.
Also, who the heck knows.
I'm tired of the excuses about how young we are, other coaches and programs have gotten it done, why shouldn't we?
I expect at least 9-3 but 10-2 or better is possible, Hoke and crew need to get it going, this is it.
Over. I optimistically believe we win 8, possibly 9. Despite the tough road games I think we can hold our own.
Losing the three games against good teams plus another flub wins you money on the over? I'd bet 2015's PSD on that.
7-5 and Brandon better pony up for Harbaugh...
Anything less than 9 wins is unacceptable at this point, there must be progress. 8 wins and Hoke should be fired, period.
Playing for our 8th win in the BWW bowl again is incredibly depressing to think about.
If just regular season and not bowl very plausible.
MgoEMOs have all 3 road games to rivals as losses so that really leaves only one "fuck up" game (lose to someone equal i.e. PSU ....or worse in a WTF game) as a margin of error to avoid a 7 win regular season. If this was the 2015 team I'd be way more bullish but right now without the bowl I have 7-5 with upside to 8-4 as UM almost always drops a "huh how did we lose that and to them?" game yearly.
But I'm EMO - ND or OSU are not great this year but our OL remains scary until proven otherwise. If we took a typical Lloyd Carr team down to South Bend or Columbus I think we'd win both. We are still a year away I am afraid due to OL.
This team could be 7-5 and still be improving a lot - a lot depends on how competitive they are at MSU and OSU more than the record IMO. Remember the OSU and ND games were home last year and right now Hoke's ability to win against even average opponents on road is in the "prove it to me" realm.
...and the under for Maryland at 7.5 wins. I can't believe Maryland has the same projected win total as Michigan. What is going on.
Maryland had just as good of a season as we did last year and returns more starters than we do. They had road wins @West Virginia and @ Va Tech, also a couple other good win. Maryland is a good team and will give us all we can handle. If it was at Maryland we would be a clear underdog.
I've always said 8 wins would be a good year. But the usual disclaimer that this number isn't expected wins as much as the number that will encourage betting.
I expect an 8-win season. Playing at all 3 rivals on the road will be tough games. PSU and NW are not automatic wins by any means. The opportunities are there for wins, the talent is there, it seems like the coaches are doing the right things, Nuss seems like a good fit, and a lot of underclassman got a lot of experience last year. But, people have to develop and positive steps need to be taken before you can predict much more than 8 wins IMO.
I've said this before but the number of wins are not all that important this year. What is important is development and how the wins and losses occur. If the defense is aggressive, the offensive line and running game are improving, the team chemistry seems good, and there isn't negativity after every game then the record doesn't mean that much. If they lose 4-5 close games and do those things it's not a big deal. If they struggle all year, never show progress, and continue to have more questions than answers then the coaching seat starts to get hot. Either way Hoke gets another year to show what he can do with his guys in 2015 where he finally has some experience and seniority, but if the latter occurs next offseason will be a lot less fun.
Over 7.5 and Devin Gardner for the Heisman.
I don't want to be a homer, but I honestly think we will overachieve this year. I think the Nuss pickup is huge and that Hoke will pull out all the stops to save his job.
We have a Senior QB, 2 Solid Running Backs, The BEST LB's in the conference, and Peppers coming in to light a spark. Oh, and Funchess! 9-10 wins, and excitement.
to be completely honest, I see us as going 6-6 or even 5-7 next year. I think that there are 3 guaranteed losses next year (ND, MSU, and Ohio) and there are multiple toss up's (Utah, Minnesota, Penn State, NW, and Indiana). So given that we win half the toss-up's and the inevitable loss to a team we should beat, I don't feel that my predication is way out of bounds. I know most on this board will disagree, but I just honestly don't see us being any better a team that barely qualifies for a bowl.
I don't recall a single positive post from you. It's all whiny garbage.
Outside of the Nussmeier hire, can you name a single thing that has been good for the program or reflects that the ship is turning around? I know I certainly can't. I hope Hoke get's us back on track and that we return to the top, but forgive me I just don'[t see that happening
I am overly excited about our defense this year. Call me crazy but I see 10 wins. We will win 1 of 2 between EL and Cbus.
Then if the season goes awry, find a sparty and bet him that hoke will keep his job.
That would be bad. Won't keep his job I guess? Help!
Where do you see 6 losses?
Obviously the 3 rivals, and then I see us going 2-2 against NW, PSU, IU, and Minn. That plus the inevitable inexplicable loss to a team we should beat gets you the 6th.
But we are going to win the National Championship this season. Write it down... or just refer back to this comment. Whatever you prefer.
Odds are 1 in 2 million.
One in the last 60 years.
SO YOU ARE SAYING THERE IS A CHANCE???????? *Dumb and Dumber reference*
With that schedule, I can't see us not getting to 8.
I fell, based on Hoke's leadership, or lack thereof in terms of proper motivation, has been the missing ingredient throughout his limited tenure here, and it's scary to have to look at the schedule and say 8 wins based merely on the lack of strength of the opposition. Couple that with the fact that things like PSU have happened frequently, although not always resulting in losses, but games which should have been blow outs in our favor have, sometimes by nothing but pure luck, i.e., the Rountree catch vs. NW, have resulted in narrow wins which are just as effective in preventing a Michigan level of confidence to manifest, instead resulting in player's second guessing their capabilities when, based on their degree of talent should result in exactly the opposite. ^He has proven this does not have to be the case based on his three tries at OSU, the first two of which should have been won handily except for a never to be explained second half game plan that continuously saw us pick up 8 yds on first down and then pound it twice into the line and kick. The D held steadfast, allowing only 6, but because of this ridiculous play calling, instead of pulling a reverse on the Tressel/Carr situation, it has given Urban reason to believe they just might have our number when it comes to who makes the critical and correct decisions. ^No excuses this season. We have it in place, talent, coordinators with impeccable and irreproachable credentials. Motivation at about 85% of the level Bo brang to each game, which incidentally was built in increments beginning with the first practice, resulting in a confidence that close games to far lesser teams were an anomaly and not a trademark of our team. This is the missing ingredient and has to be resolved. If so, 10 wins should be an annual occurence, normally playing for the 11th or 12th come bowl time. We simply have too much talent from staff on down to second line players to conclude anything but the above.
We didn't change OC's to repeat 7 or 8 wins...Nuss raises DG's game, wide receivers suprise and we have 1600 yards from the tailbacks. GMatt focuses the D from the middle and Peppers is, well, Peppers. This is a 10 win season if we avoid major injuries to DG, Green and MFJR.
Hammer the over and go to bed.
You guys are nuts. We did nothing good last year. Nothing. I could easily see a 7 win season with the loss of 2 good offensive linemen and our number 1 receiver. I like Hoke, but after last year he needs to prove it to me that we can beat a credible opponent. Sorry ... Not feeling the over.
And .... If we only get 7 wins .... Hoke is gone.
and 12 wins and giddiness. Seems like it's logical to think we're poised for a big leap, but the last two seasons have made me suspicious.
I think the O/U on the season was 7.5 back in 2011. That was the easiest money I've ever made.
Hope this season is even easier.
If one were to, say...., want to place a small wager somewhere on the interwebs, where would one do it?
Would be a complete disaster. 7 wind again and you have to blow it all up. Brandon and Hoke would both have to go.
The real question: will the third time be the charm and will we finally get someone we actually WANT to LEAD the football program. Harbaugh or Miles.
This program is going to be a wreck until one of those two come here.
1. Neither Harbaugh nor Miles is coming here.
2. There isn't another coach in the country that could take the talent they are accumulating and win? Let's be realistic.
3. If Hoke is such a terrible coach, how do you explain 2011 when he had some talent. Did the coaching staff get dumb after that? They had some talent before the roster voids kicked in.
To answer your #3: Charlie Weis and Ty Willingham.
Les Miles has never directly been offered this job. If that were to happen, Les would take the job instantly.
I understand what you are saying but for me, the returning upperclassmen on defense is the reason I think they should pass 7 wins. Devin's improvement and the OL is more to me about consistency and Nussmeier and I do believe a less avant garde approach to playcalling will help DG and the offense succeed.
Our offense will need to step it up and hopefully Nuss can help with that...but our defense should be good to pretty good this year (if relatively healthy). A lot of upper classmen, our D-Line has some good depth, solid corners, Peppers..etc
I think we could see a really good product on the field defensively. They will keep us in games.
5Dimes throws out a 7.5 win total and won't even let you bet on it? They should put their money where their stupidity is.
with this schedule that Hoke should stay? I'm thinking the over looks pretty good and this is one motivated group of players who will have a chip on their shoulders.
If Matteson sticks to the "new" aggressive strategy and lets Peppers dominates like I know he can...Look out, 10-12 wins are possible. Nuss will keep the offense from being a total clusterF and rely on D. I mean Sparty did this last year and look what they did.....
Over the past 21 seasons, we've averaged 4 losses per season. Eight wins seems like a pretty safe starting point. Question is, are we better this year than the average of the past two decades of Michigan football?
It's also a question of whether we're better than we were last season.
We lost our #1 WR and both tackles as well as some depth guys on offense. Butt is also coming off a knee. Love the Nussmeier hire, but will our players struggle to learn yet another new offense, there will be a learning curve, how much of one?
Defense should be better, but let's face it, the defense was mediocre at best last year. One of the worst scoring defenses in school history. Lots of talent, but we did lose both DTs and the Gordons who made some plays for us. Also, it seems like there's a ton of shuffling of positions for players, and a total reshuffling of the position coaches on defense. This could all work out great, or it could all work out poorly, there are some onknowns on defense.
This coaching staff hasn't demonstrated that enough of our players are improving year after year. This is year 4, I feel like we've got more talent, but less proven talent than ever before. It's one thing to be a high school star, it's another to have shown that talent on the field in college. Just not a lot of proven performers, we need to have at least 10 players who haven't been great for us take a hiuge step forward this year in order to compete for the B1G title. Players like Kalis, oesch, Green, Smith, Darboroh, Pipkens, Lewis, and a few others.
On a good team in a good program, you get big steps forward every season from 10+ players. Just have not seen that under Hoke so far. We've had a few guys progress here and there, but not the wholesale dramatic improvement that we need to see each season to start competing for titles.
I'd argue that the scoring defense was really hurt by our poor offense. I think the D is pretty good, and would not be surprised to see a top 20 unit if our offense is capable of a middle of the pack (50-70 range) performance.
And if that is how it plays out, we smash the over. I've got my fingers and toes crossed.
is really beginning to pissing me off. This site is reminding me of the SINK "Lowered expectations" skits. The B1G is a week conference. Hoke has said from day 1 anything less then conference championships is failure. Of all the opponents on our schedule only OSU has out recruited us the last 4-5 years. 11-1 should be the expectation.
at least 10 wins, I believe it.
Good lord, if its 7 wins, I might not come on this board until basketball is mid way through season.
The back-7 should be great approaching elite, and the offense has a good QB with Funchess, Butt, and hopefully one more WR that can contribute early and often. The running backs are talented but unproven, yet it won't matter if the offensive line as a tire-firey as it looks to be. Yes, the overly-complicated schemes made it harder for them, and tackle-over just seemed like a terrible play from the getgo. But losing two RSS tackles likely doesn't get overcome by the year of tainted experience the interior linemen got. I hope I'm more wrong about the OLine than the back 7.
Against this schedule, Michigan has the 3 rival road games that they'll be underdogs against, and a road game against Northwestern; that's at best a tossup. Other games Michigan should be at least favored in, but shit happens. 8-4 is the median prediction, with 7-5 more likely than 9-3; regardless, 8-4 should be enough for Hoke to remain through next year, and worse records will likely depend on how we got there than the end result.
OSU, ND and MSU are all going to be good teams and on the road. Odds makers expect us to lose these games, but we need to steal at least one of them for the program to be perceived as having any momentum. Need to beat ND since it is the last game. Need the regional bragging rights.
All of the other games we should win. Any given Saturday could lose one for us.
10-2: we're back on track
9-3: we've reasonably met national expectations.
8-4: We've lost to our rivals and one that we shouldn't have. Bowl game is critical for season not to be a major disappointment.
7-5: Questions arise about the programs direction.
I'm very hopeful that Nuss will make up for Borges' ineptitude and that the line will thrive with more simple coherent game plans. I don't know what to make of the defensive scheme change, but think with all of the defensive recruits over the past few years and Mattison's coaching we'll be o.k. I'm guessing 9-3, but we beat ND.