OT - World Cup Draw, it could have been worse

Submitted by mgobaran on

Is this Real Life:
So here is the way it played out. And some bad math to draw sketchy conclusions from.

GROUP A
 RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 10 SPAIN 1
CROATIA 16 NETHERLANDS 9
MEXICO 20 CHILE 15
CAMEROON 51 AUSTRALIA 59
avg:
 24.25
avg:
 21
high: 10 high: 1
low: 51 low: 59
std. dev.: 18.301 std. dev.: 25.974
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 4 URUGUAY 6
GREECE 12 COSTA RICA 31
COTE d'IVORIE 17 ENGLAND 13
JAPAN 48 ITALY 7
avg:
 20.25
avg:
 14.25
high: 4 high: 6
low: 48 low: 31
std. dev.: 19.259 std. dev.: 11.587
       
GROUP E
 RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 8 ARGENTINA 3
ECUADOR 23 BOSNIA-HERZ. 21
FRANCE
 19 IRAN 45
HONDURAS 41 NIGERIA 36
avg:
 22.75
avg:
 26.25
high: 8 high: 3
low: 41 low: 45
std. dev.: 13.720 std. dev.: 18.392
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 2 BELGIUM 11
PORTUGAL 5 ALGERIA 26
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 22
USA 14 S. KOREA 54
avg:
 11.25
avg:
 28.25
high: 2 high: 11
low: 24 low: 54
std. dev.: 9.912 std. dev.: 18.301

Group G, more like Group of Greath, amirite?

Other Possible Scenarios:
But things could have been even worse. And they could have been so much better. Here is a chart with USA taking the place of everyone from their pot. 

GROUP A RANK GROUP B RANK
BRAZIL 10 SPAIN 1
CROATIA 16 NETHERLANDS 9
USA 14 CHILE 15
CAMEROON 51 USA 14
avg:
 22.75
avg:
 9.75
high: 10 high: 1
low: 51 low: 15
std. dev.: 18.998 std. dev.: 6.397
       
GROUP C RANK GROUP D RANK
COLOMBIA 4 URUGUAY 6
GREECE 12 USA 14
COTE d'IVORIE 17 ENGLAND 13
USA 14 ITALY 7
avg:
 11.75
avg:
 10
high: 4 high: 6
low: 17 low: 14
std. dev.: 5.560 std. dev.: 4.082
       
GROUP E
 RANK GROUP F RANK
SWITZERLAND 8 ARGENTINA 3
ECUADOR 23 BOSNIA-HERZ. 21
FRANCE
 19 USA 14
USA 14 NIGERIA 36
avg:
 16
avg:
 18.5
high: 8 high: 3
low: 23 low: 36
std. dev.: 6.481 std. dev.: 13.820
       
GROUP G RANK GROUP H RANK
GERMANY 2 BELGIUM 11
PORTUGAL 5 ALGERIA 26
CHANA 24 RUSSIA 22
USA 14 USA 14
avg:
 11.25
avg:
 18.25
high: 2 high: 11
low: 24 low: 26
std. dev.: 9.912 std. dev.: 6.946

My analysis on the averages...

So the USA got screwed, but the are 2 scenarios in which things could have got a whole lot tougher. If we landed in Group B, the average FIFA ranking would have been south of the TOP 10! Group D, is exactly 10, and we would have been the worst team in that group (according to FIFA). The only other group close to Group G, is Group C, which is half a ranking higher in difficulty. 

My analysis on the standard deviations...

I am treating this as, the lower the standard deviation the more competitve the games in that group would be. Idk if competition would be better or worse, based on other teams being able to keep you in it based on two teams drawing. I am treating it as a worse option to have a low standard deviation based on the assumption it would be harder to get three points in that case.

Currently our group is at 9.912. The most competitve would have been if we landed in that dreaded group D. yikes. 2nd worse would be group C. In which case C may be a little easier in terms of competition, but you're trading that in for some close games. If we landed in group B, E, or H, the standard deviations would have been relatively the same, with varying degrees of strength of schedule.

Dog Gif:

 

What could have been:
Believe it or not, the numbers say Group A, with Brazil at home would have been by far the easiest track. In my opinion, I fell landing in group E or H would have been more Ideal. 

Now do I think we are the 14th best in the world? No. I believe we could beat several teams ranked above us. FIFA rankings can kiss my ass!

 

TL;DR section:
USA is in the Group of Death. We ended up in the 3rd or 4th hardest group possible, as long as every other team stayed where they were drawn. The best 3 groups we could have gone to are Group A, Group E or Group H. 

Group F looks like it has a favorable average, but it has the highest standard deviation. Our chances of winning that group aren't as strong as A, E, or H, but the chances of moving on are better then where we are currently. 

[edit]: Thanks for being patient through the reformatting, and editing process. I threw this together real quick and don't know what I am doing.

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mgobaran

December 6th, 2013 at 3:27 PM ^

I know. I just read that shit. Got me all pumped. And made me laugh. Perfect article.

We probably won't beat Ghana because that's not something we seem to do, but whatever. You're our "spouse-fight over whether you put peanut butter in the fridge or not," Ghana, and like so many other battles we'll keep up the argument no matter how doomed it might be.

Joined: 09/12/2012

MGoPoints: 22811

hailtothevictors08

December 6th, 2013 at 4:32 PM ^

I know some people are freaking out about the draw the US just got. Yes, it is a nasty group and probably the toughest overall group in the World Cup, but we knew it probably would be and it could have been WAY worse (If we had been drawn into B or if the mythical Brazil, Netherlands, Italy group that was mathematically possible). Also, a big reason why our group is the toughest is the US is a very good team and is far superior to many of the pool C teams. The truth of the matter is this group has one powerhouse and three teams that in normal conditions should be expected to compete for the knockout rounds, but aren't legit threats to win it all (Portugal is not Brazil, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany etc.) The amount of travel we have is awful though. 

 
Team by Team:
 
Germany: We knew the seeded team would be heavy favorites over us unless it was the Swiss or perhaps Belgium (I want no part of Uruguay in South America). I much prefer our chances to perhaps steal a draw against Germany than either Spain or Brazil. Again, we are underdogs but it could be way worse. Also, while they SHOULD advance on top of the group, the Germans cannot be happy about this group and would probably willing to switch straight up with any of the seeded teams. 
 
Ghana: This is where I think we caught the biggest break. Yes they are a solid squad that could beat us/advance, yes they are more dangerous than say Algeria, and yes I have an awful taste in my mouth from the last two World Cups, but they are not better than us straight up. On paper, especially with this game being played away from Africa, we are better. Remember, this was the really scary pool. We could have ended up with a South American team playing with the home-continent advantage or we could have doubled up on European teams if we had gotten a South American seeded team. Again, we got a break here.
 
Portugal: Yes, they have Christian Rolando. Yes, he may win the Ballon d'Or. Yes, he is one of the two best players on the planet. They are still are not world class. They didn't put away a very pedestrian Sweden in their play-in until the very end.  In fact, they seem to about equal to us, maybe slightly better but it is close. We knew that it was probable that we would have at least one more very good team in the group other than the seeded team and I am just happy that team is not the Netherlands.
 
In reality, we knew that we would probably have a really nasty drawn and I think it fell somewhere in the middle between impossible and very lucky. The thing about being the best in an area of the world without soccer greats is that we get an easier road to qualification but you are more likely to get a rough group if you can't get yourself seeded. It is a group in which I think we can advance. I still think had we been switched with the pool C team in Groups B (Spain, Chile, Netherlands) and maybe D (Uruguay, Italy, England) we would be way worse off. Yes, soccer odds are weird, but ESPN's SPI (which I have found to be decent) puts us right around 40% to advance (1% behind Portugal, ahead of Ghana) and that sounds just about right to me.
 
This is the World Cup and the field is stacked everywhere, if you want to advance, you have to be able to win games against good teams. This group is really going to come down to who can maybe steal a point (or even somehow a win of Germany) and/or who can win what is essential a three team group for one spot between the US, Ghana, and Portugal. Klinsmann and the boys have a tough road but they have a pretty fair shot. I believe in them.
 
Go Nats!

Joined: 06/11/2009

MGoPoints: 3973

Yeoman

December 6th, 2013 at 5:34 PM ^

I've been reading the German press this afternoon--they're quite content with the draw and there's no way in hell they'd be willing to trade with Spain (Chile/Netherlands) or Uruguay (Italy/England), especially since this way they get group H in the round of 16 and the weaker half of the draw for the quarterfinals.

Joined: 06/08/2011

MGoPoints: 21390

CR7

December 6th, 2013 at 5:20 PM ^

I'm expecting them to progress. Should be beating Ghana. Gotta get over the Ghanian hump sooner or later and Portugal are nothing to write home about. Outside of Ronnie (and maybe Nani, depends) they've got nothing. Germany will be a toughie, no question. If they get anything out of that game, I'll be happy.

Speaking of Portugal, though, where have you gotten your rankings from? I was skimming earlier today and saw that Portugal were 16th and we were 17th, which seems about right. A team that needed a play-off to qualify isn't going to be ranked 5th in the world.

Joined: 10/21/2012

MGoPoints: 1598

smwilliams

December 6th, 2013 at 7:58 PM ^

Glad to see the folks here are more analytical as opposed to the media jumping on the "GROUP O' DEATH" bandwagon.

Group B with Spain, Netherlands, and Chile (tournament is in South America, people).

Group D with Uruguay, Italy, and England is also crazy hard.

Frankly, getting three against Ghana is almost a must.

Joined: 08/20/2010

MGoPoints: 9917

CR7

December 6th, 2013 at 8:18 PM ^

Chile are a real dark horse, for me. I was extremely impressed with them in 2010 with Marcelo Bielsa. Their high tempo, pressing style is incredibly entertaining and they were involved in 2 of the more saviory matches in that tournament, against Brasil and Spain. I read Zonal Marking in tandem with the WC that year and he put out some great articles on them. Bielsa is no longer managing them but Sampaoli plays with similar tactics, from what I understand.

Joined: 10/21/2012

MGoPoints: 1598