OT - Tigers' next 8 months
Being a fan of an AL Central team that finishes just below the Twins year after year , I've come to learn an important lesson about major league baseball: when it's all said and done, you win with pitching. The Twins put out rosters with Nick Puntos, Jason Bartletts, and Jason Kubels littered throughout their lineup, and yet still compete for the division crown every year.
After watching the sweep of the Tigers at the hand of the Rays, I am fully convinced the Tigers should model their franchise after the Twins. Or at least I believe pitching should be their #1 priority every off-season and draft. I know it's July, but I'm considering this season lost. From now through opening day 2011, Detroit has some major decisions to make. In my opinion, management should go about the club this way:
- They have to figure out NOW whether Worth, Rhymes, Sizemore, Avila (just give him the starting job already, Laird's gone after this year) and even Boesch are going to be a part of the team's long-term future. Play them as much as possible. If these guy can develop and get comfortable in the bigs, if even at an adequate level, we can stay competitive next year and feel safe with them as key players. Think future Santiago's and Inge's. If we could get Worth and Sizemore/Rhymes to hit .265 over time, I'd take that middle infield over their careers easy.
- Get deals done: I think you have to keep Inge around. As for Maggs, I think he'll stay too. These guys have been in the playoffs before, they know what it takes. And, I'm not so sure we could field an MLB-status lineup if we don't re-sign them or go get a FA. As for Damon, I think the decision with him lies in how the young guys perform. Most likely, we'll want him back too for another one-year deal, as long as he's fine with it.
- Sign a pitcher, or two, or three. I don't care if we keep Bonderman around for cheap or let him go, but the staff is one or two reliable guys away from keeping this team competitive all season long. That's it. I think that if the players know the pitcher will keep them in games, it gives them a reason to stay focused day in, day out. Provided Leyland doesn't randomly rest half the lineup every game. Tim Hudson, Brandon Webb, Aaron Harang, Ted Lilly...all these guys are potentially out there.
- Draft well and develop talent, most important. Ordonez, Guillen, Damon won't be around much longer. We need guys like Wells, Streiby, and Frazier to come through in a big way soon, ala Boesch.
Ideally, the young guys figure it out, and we have a young nucleus of Ajax, Cabrera, Boesch, Sizemore, Avila. With the vets staying strong and a rotation of Verlander, Free Agent, Scherzer, Porcello, Oliver?, we have the makings of a team that could compete in the present and the future.
Being relatively young and not being a Lions fan, I'm new to this optimistic look-towards-next-year approach, but I think the first wo years of the RR era has gotten me used to it.
when it's all said and done, you win with pitching
This is not an earth-shattering revelation - Dave Dombrowski has mentioned it once or twice. If you actually looked at our last 5 draft classes you'd see that it's not a new idea with respect to the Tigers' philosophy.
This link to their draft history shows that in the 2007-2009 1st year player drafts, 12 of the 16 top picks were pitchers. I don't have the 2010 list in front of me but IIRC at least 3 of the top 5 were pitchers.
Yeah, I have noticed this. Here's to hoping a few turn out similar to Verlander.
Easy to say. Hard to do. There's nothing available this year. Cliff Lee is an almost Yankees lock. Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, Jake Westbrook. Bonderman may be the 6th best available. None of those guys are guys I really like.
Including arbitration raises to Raburn, Zumaya, Miner, and Galarraga. We're sitting at an estimated 61 million.
A. Resign the stalwarts. Resign Ordonez for 2 and 18, Resign Inge for 2 and 8. Gives you decent players at positions. Inge is no prize, but the only thing better is Jorge Cantu at 3b, and thats very debatable whether he's that much better. Ordonez is the best middle of the lineup outfielder available not named Jayson Werth.
B. Sign an innings eater. Veteran guy, but he only gets 7 million or so. Bonderman and Vazquez would be the most palatable options. Someone in the NL will offer Vazquez a ton. Should be able to sign Westbrook for that. Lilly would be nice for the right price, to finally get a lefty. Bondo for 3 and 18, he's on record saying Detroit or the West Coast as the fall back.
C. Kidnap Carl Crawford and get him Detroit somehow. If my math is correct I have 81 million. Offer Crawford 5 at 18 per. Leaves a tidy 99.
D. If no Carl, Go after Dunn. He should be able to had for 13 or so. 3 and 39 should get it done. This leaves at 92 or so. Therefore make a trade with Arizona. Santiago and a RP, Saddlewhite is a good candidate for Synder C, and Drew SS. Your taking a good SS and a bad catcher with a horrid contract. But Arizona is obviously in financial trouble with the Haren deal, so it gets 12 million off the books and helps their historically bad bullpen. Puts us at 106.
Lineup Rotation
Jackson CF Verlader
Crawford LF Scherzer
Ordonez DH Porcello
Cabrera 1b Bondo/ Lilly
Boesch RF Galarrraga/ Oliver
Guillen 2b
Inge 3b
Avila C
Santiago/ Worth SS
or option D
Jackson CF
Drew SS
Ordonez RF
Cabrera 1b
Dunn DH
Guilen 2b
Boesch LF
Inge 3b
Synder/ Avila C
The Twins also have two of the best hitters in baseball. My bold predictioin....Derek Jeter.
We have soo much money coming off the books. We can do some damage in free agency. Might need to overpay crawford a bit. We need this guy though. That should be priority number one. Brandon Webb and Jason Westbrook should be pitching targets. And hope to god that Zumaya can be healthy.
I think you mean Jake Westbrook, but the free agents you mention all sound like good options.
The Tigers draft pitchers and go after them - they nabbed Edwin last year and then turned him into Phil Coke and Max Scherzer this year, two guys have been average-to-good for this team. They locked up Verlander, and Porcello was a stud last year who has run into some bad luck and a small slump this year. They drafted Ruffin this year in the 1st round, and have been building up what was a putrid farm system. Outside of the contract he gave Dontrelle (which was stupid when they were signing it), he's been pretty good identifying good young pitchers and trying to keep them.
The problem with this team is that have absolutely no consistent speed outside of Jackson on the basepaths (some of the new guys are certainly capable, but I haven't seen them on base enough to determine if they are real threats), and very little legitimate hitting outside of Cabrera and Ordonez. Boesch is a nice player but the jury is still out if he's a middle-of-the-order hitter, and guys like Guillen and Inge are decent hitters but are not the type of run producers you need to compete all year long.
You point out that the Twins win with the Nick Puntos of the world, but that is because they also have consistent MVP candidates in Morneau and Mauer in the middle of that lineup, as well as consistent performers like Cuddyer. Heck, Kubel drove in over 100 runs last year and had a blistering finish to the season.
The problem with the Tigers is that the management structure and the entire farm system was so abysmal under Randy Smith that it took 3-4 years just to leave the crater. I mean, the team lost 119 games in 2003, and had absolutely nobody of note join the team until they signed Ivan and Rondell White signed as FA. Minnesota was a mess for most of the 90s as well, but after 6 years on the job Terry Ryan (and his successor Bill Smith) were able to refuel that farm system and started fielding winning teams. I have faith that Dombrowski is going to make the right moves this off-season, but so far he has shown a key eye for talent overall and a clear plan.
I'd be stoked if we ended up with Crawford or Drew and didn't give up the farm. Dunn is a guy I've never liked, if just because no team seems to want him for more than 2 years. He is a guy though that we could put in front of Cabrera, so he sees more pitches in the zone and maybe doesn't strike out 20000 times (otherwise, him, Ajax and Inge in the same lineup would strikeout too much for me to want to watch). Ultimately I'd prefer Guillen at DH, so he'll only make 2 trips to the DL instead of 4, but that's pending one of our other current options at 2B improves a lot. Some tiny bit of me still thinks Worth or Sizemore or Rhymes can be a Pedroia- type guy near the top.
In the order of pitchers you mention, I'd take Webb, Lilly, then Vasquez- any of these guys, and I wouldn't be cheap about it. Bonderman, I would be cheaper on. Sorry Bondo.
I list him only because its a high risk reward. He has made 1 start, opening day last year, in the last two years.
After his last surgury, he said he had to totally rework his mechanics. I want 28 starts from my innings eater, he doesn't fit the bill.
Crawford would be the ultimate coup. Gives us an incredible leadoff hitter (I'd hit him leadoff anyways) and would also give us an awesome outfield defense. I actually really like Dunn but hitters of his type break down quickly as they age so I wouldn't be in a hurry to pursue him. Cliff Lee would also be great, but that's likely a pipe dream as New York is likely to throw the kitchen sink at him.
Bonderman has done nothing to warrant us throwing any money at him next year unless it's at a dirt cheap price. Same goes with Inge although they'd be more likely to sign him just because he's a fan favorite. Maggs is a different story but he won't be touching 18 million.
Webb is intriguing because he'd likely come at a discount price coming off of injury.....wouldn't mind rolling the dice with him as he's still relatively young at 31.
It's really hard to say what direction we'll go in with all the money we are freeing up. My main hope is that we cut ties with some of these overpaid players instead of resigning them.
He is a good defender, but I think that they should try to find someone cheaper, who is an adequate fielder with much more upside offensively. He is a great team guy, but he leaves too much to be desired at the plate to pay him anwhere close to what currently makes. Also, it would be great to find someone who could hit from the left side at 3B.
I would be willing to bring Maggs back at on a cheap, one-year deal.
As for Crawford, I think that he is outstanding. If he is not in Yankee pinstripes I will be shocked.
What is really frightening is just how bereft the organziation is of minor league talent, and it really is an indictment on Dombrowski.
Sure it would be nice to find a third bagger who is bats lefty...But you realize he would have to throw right and bat left? Those guys are rare. The switch hitter is more prevalent at 3rd. There's nothing available at 3b in free agency. Its Cantu and Inge, Feliz and Wigginton. Wigginton and Cantu are in third bagger's in name only. I would put Caby back over there, with the weight he's lost, its not the worst idea.
Inge is a free agent and due a pay cut. But coming back at signifcantly reduced pay is the way to go, because the lack of other options.
With the luxury tax, Crawford will cost the yankees 30 million a year. They will hit the 50% luxury tax next year. Crawford is a luxury for them with Granderson and Gardner already providing speed. So I think there's a chance he doesn't go to the Yankees.
If you think we're going to get a LH hitting 3B with more offensive upside than Inge with this free agent market, for less than the 6M we're paying Inge, you're either dreaming or you've got some pixie dust and unicorn horns in your pockets. Quite frankly, the 3B market is somewhere between putrid and piss-poor this offseason, and putrid ain't looking too good right now.
To think that we're going to be able to stock the entire farm system in the 5 years since David Chadd was hired in 2004 (I'm not counting the 2010 class that is just barely getting its feet wet in pro ball), well, that's just not realisitc. There was nothing in this system this side of Brandon Inge and Ramon Santiago when DD walked in the door and realized what an unmitigated disaster this franchise had become.
The man started taking pitchers. And after that, more pitching. And more pitching after that...So far that pitching has produced Miguel Cabrera in a trade, and Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Max Scherzer in another trade. To get these guys we gave up.......pitching and Curtis Granderson (another Dombrowski draftee).
Some recent draft picks are already here. Boesch, Avila, Porcello, Weinhardt, and Worth and Sizemore have already started to get their feet wet. Ryan Strieby will likely be here in September, and there's a little bit in A and AA that we're just going to have to wait and see on.
I know this kind of sounds ridiculous (and maybe too optimistic) but I think the Tigers are going to try to get Hanley Ramirez this summer. We have some of the prospects to do it. It might take Jacob Turner, but to have a SS with power, speed, and high average, not to mention he is young, would be a steal.
As mentioned above, I think we will go after Crawford as well. I am not an Inge fan, he is a beast defensively but you need power from your 3b IMO. Problem is, there really isn't anyone to go after. Maybe sign Inge to a short contract, 2 years maybe, and see if some of our minor leaguers (Larish, who sucks IMO, Sizemore, etc) can pan out and take over. Additionally, I am ready for the Tigers to move Guillen. He is one of my favorite Tigers but is too injury prone to be reliable.
I would like the Tigers to add a pitcher, maybe a Ted Lilly. All of these moves would put the Tigers payroll way under what it has been and move the organization into the forefront of the American League.
Sidenote: As much as the post all-star break has sucked, I am still really happy with the Tigers. I didn't think they would compete this year but they have found ways to win until the last two weeks.
Look at it this way: for all the whining about the lack of talent in the farm system, in September we could very easily be putting 6 rookies in the lineup on a semi-regular basis: Sizemore/Rhymes, Worth, Avila, Boesch, Jackson, and maybe Strieby. That makes for quite a transition. To expect these guys to all step in and immediately contribute to a contender is simply asking too much and being unrealisitc.
I'm expecting a big move this offseason, for someone on the left side of the infield, and it's not going to be cheap. That's fine with me, as the contracts coming off the board will give us much more flexiblity to absorb more contracts.
Dombrowski has done pretty darn well with trading:
For starters, I'll give you Carlos Guillen (pre-injury) for Ramon Santiago and Juan Gonzalez (no, not THAT one). And I'll give you one good guess where Santiago wound up.
Gary Sheffield for Humberto Sanchez. Sure, Sheffield got hurt and it cost us some money, but I'm still waiting for Sanchez to throw a pitch with his busted up elbow and his infatuation with fast food. Shaun Rogers thinks this guy needs a treadmill.
We all know about the Cabrera trade. Bitch all you want about the Dontrelle contract, and I don't care. Add that cost on to the end of Cabrera's deal, and we're still way ahead. Andrew Miller still doesn't know where home plate is, and Cameron Maybin still cannot crack the Marlins lineup 3 years later. The rest of the other pitching prospects we sent to Florida were last seen on the side of a milk carton at Meijer.
The Aubrey Huff & Jarrod Washburn trade was a disaster, but the above three deals certainly trump this one. I have no doubt that Dombrowski will do something again to give us more hope.
Anyone who thought we would contend this year was loony. You simply cannot contend with 3-4 rookies in the lineup every day. It just doesn't happen. However, there are much better days ahead in 2011, and especially in 2012 and beyond.
the Huff deal was not a disaster! We totally misused him by not giving him full time ABs. Sucks because we probably could have resigned him for cheap. Instead he's San Fran's best hitter (outside of Posey anyways) and would be our second best hitter right now at a decent price.
BTW, Larish got DFA'd today. They haven't been happy with him for a while. He wasn't even on the 40-man roster in training camp.
And the problem with Guillen is twofold. He's a 35 year old injury prone infielder, and he's expensive. We might be getting a fork and some ketchup and eating a contract next year if we want him gone. The rest of the league knows, too, and there's no way you're going to get anything of any significance for him.
Reasons I think the Tigers will be markedly improved in 2011:
C: Alex Avila and Undetermined 2011 catcher cannot possibly put up worse production than 2010
1B: Miguel Cabrera. I shouldn't need to go further here.
2B: We've got enough options between Guillen, Sizemore and Rhymes that we can likely expect a wash here
3B/SS: I expect a big, expensive move here at one of these positions, and a wash out of the other one
OF: Boesch, Jackson, Ordonez (if he returns), Strieby should be fine or in some cases, improved. At worst I'm thinking a wash
PItching:
Verlander: See Cabrera
Porcello and Scherzer: They both should be improved, as they likely will not go 2 months at a time each putting up ERAs north of 8.00. Keep in mind that Porcello is still 21 and both Scherzer and Porcello are in their 2nd major league seasons.
We will get better production than what Dontrelle Willis and Armando Galarraga (perfect game notwithstanding) have given us out of the #5 slot
Someone will be signed to replace Jeremy Bonderman. I'm not counting on the farm system here quite yet.
The lefthanders in the bullpen outside of Phil Coke will be improved just by not having Brad Thomas and Fu Te Ni there. Not even Miss Cleo knows what is going to happen with Zumaya, so anything we get out of him is pure gravy.
Upon further review, maybe that outfield won't be a wash and instead a downgrade if Magglio does not return (I do expect him back). I still think improved production elsewhere and improved starting pitching will be enough to balance any losses here.
You talk about pitching and the AL central and no mention for the White Sox? Before Peavy went down, they might have had the best 1 - 5 in baseball combined with a top 3 bullpen...
The twins have 2 pitchers the White Sox would even consider adding
And the tigers are not a good team - one good pitcher and the best hitter in baseball just doesn't cut it