Tater

January 14th, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

Now it's time for the other QB in the NC game to declare.  Normally, as a human being, I would root for Jones to stay in school.  But we all know what he thinks about school.

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

Muttley

January 14th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^

Who was the better QB on the field Monday night, the Heisman winner or Playskool?

If he were to enter the draft, I would guess 4th round pick.  QBs like Taj Boyd didn't make the NFL, and there's obviously little film on him.  By the 5th round, it's a crap shoot whether a pick will make the team, and like option pricing, the variability around the strike (NFL cut) level is so great that it's a great gamble to take.  I think someone sees that, perhaps a team in rebuilding mode, and selects him a little early, say the 4th round.  I don't think someone would use a pick that they are counting upon to improve their team (rounds 1-3) on such a gamble.

Of course, Playskool said yesterday that he's "not ready for that (NFL) level", but it's not like he hasn't said things in the past that he wishes he could take back.

Joined: 07/07/2009

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Two Hearted Ale

January 14th, 2015 at 7:43 PM ^

Normally I think guys should enter the draft as early as possible to take advantage of the time value of money but most players don't have his tools and almost unlimited potential. If he doesn't get injured even if he sucks someone will take a flier on him as an athlete in a late round. He doesn't lose much career earnings because the NFL will give any super athlete two years or about $1 million. If his development equals his potential he goes early in the first round and gets $5 million+ guaranteed (probably much more). The wild card is injury but staying is probably a good bet for him. What an interesting case though. I wish it wasn't at Ohio State.

Joined: 06/10/2011

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jmblue

January 14th, 2015 at 4:10 PM ^

Not sure he'd be the best fit for them.  He's more of a run-first QB and their offense, while it uses the QB as an occasional running threat, is more of a passing spread.  In 2013, Miller never threw for 300 yards, and topped 200 yards only five times.  That was as a third-year starter.

He should definitely move on from OSU though.  He's not likely to win his old job back.

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ChosenOne

January 14th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

Well the way I saw it during the NC, Oregon was run first with passes no longer than 10 yards. They rarely went vertical, often times throwing WR screens trying to get the edge. If that's any indication on how the play calling went all year, I'd be a little suspicious of drafting Mariota, have to have a vertical passing game in the NFL. His ability to extend plays is elite tho. 

Joined: 09/17/2010

MGoPoints: 380

FGB

January 14th, 2015 at 11:08 PM ^

If all you watched was the NC game, they happened to be missing probably the fastest WR in college football in Devon Allen, and their Devin Funchess-esque TE Pharaoh Brown, two longer range targets. 

Just to be clear, I would say they are a rushing spread first, but their offense is a pretty balanced attack.

 

Joined: 09/24/2009

MGoPoints: 3192

evenyoubrutus

January 14th, 2015 at 3:40 PM ^

I don't think it's ever a good idea for a QB to declare early, unless you are simply concerned about upfront money (which I am not judging).  How many early entrees at QB go on to do great things?

Joined: 11/04/2008

MGoPoints: 178188

Chiwolve

January 14th, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^

Let's see -- Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Matt Stafford -- so that is 3 out of 8 starting playoff QBs left school early.

Also, the top 3 QBs selected in the most recent draft class all were early entrants (Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater). Too early to say how their careers will pan out, but all earned starts as rookies

Joined: 08/26/2011

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Chiwolve

January 14th, 2015 at 5:02 PM ^

It's really hard to say -- I think Bortles and Bridgewater showed some flashes and in general seem to have support from teams / fanbases -- Johnny Football has always seemed like a clown to me so my views on him may be biased. 

And in regards to the comment I responded to, whether or not these guys turn out to be successful is somewhat irrelevant -- the real question is whether they would have been better served by staying another year in college. The answer to that is no, I don't think they would have been better off staying in school and looking at the rest of their class I also think that they will have more successful careers than the seniors in their class.

Joined: 08/26/2011

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evenyoubrutus

January 14th, 2015 at 5:15 PM ^

You're right about Luck, I didn't realize he had redshirted and was an early entree. So he's the one exception. But the next two on the list of "successful" NFL QB's are Matt Stafford and Cam Newton?  And let's ignore the abundance of highly touted early QB entries that flamed out- Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, RGIII (regressing fast), Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, Nate Davis, Jamarcus Russel, the list goes on. And those are just the recent ones.

 

Joined: 11/04/2008

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Chiwolve

January 14th, 2015 at 5:39 PM ^

You've got quite a long list there -- so what is the point??

In order for your argument to make sense, then you would have to also be making the argument that they would have better careers if they would have stayed in school and I simply don't think that's the case - or at least not one that you can easily prove.

Also, I don't know what metrics you are using to determine who is a good QB and who isn't -- apparently leading your team to the playoffs is not enough - and in Stafford's case I'm assuming that the massive statistics are not enough either.

The fact is that the vast majority of QBs who enter the league don't make it -- regardless of where they are drafted and regardless of whether they finished college or not. Therefore -- all QBs should stay in college forever because they will probably just fail when they make it to the NFL

Joined: 08/26/2011

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evenyoubrutus

January 14th, 2015 at 6:05 PM ^

It may very well be true that staying an extra year doesn't make a difference for any of these guys, I just think it is highly unusual for an early entree to have a successful career in the NFL. And I have been a big fan of Stafford until this year. Talent wise detroit had the most loaded offense in the NFL and their output was barely avaverage. Their defense was what carried them. Can you imagine what any of the 4 remaining QBs could have done with those offensive weapons?

Joined: 11/04/2008

MGoPoints: 178188

Chiwolve

January 14th, 2015 at 6:29 PM ^

I am also a Detroit fan and watched every game. I agree that Stafford could have played better -- but the best offensive talent in the league?!? No sir -- maybe I can concede that Megatron and Golden are the best 1-2 WRs in the league, but the offensive line is bad, our RB situation is atrocious and TE is just average (I do think Ebron will be good eventually). Brady, Rogers, Luck and Wilson would have made the Lions better, but its hard to win in the playoffs when you can't run the football

Joined: 08/26/2011

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LSAClassOf2000

January 14th, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^

I am assuming that the Buccaneers saw this same article and were simply beaming, at least if they were looking to take a QB with their #1 pick.

In all seriousness, he is a fun player to watch - wherever he goes in the NFL, hopefully he does some good things. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

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nowicki2005

January 14th, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^

They have to just to sell jerseys. Too many FSU fans around there, they almost have to take the local kid although I believe Winston is going to flame out....If you think he rapes girls and steals crab legs in college, just wait till he gets millions of dollars and literally nobody babysitting him.

Joined: 06/28/2011

MGoPoints: 3060

DonAZ

January 14th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^

I like Mariota's chances in the NFL.  He seems like he's got his head screwed on right.  He remind me a bit of Russell Wilson -- quiet, unassuming, smart and hardworking.

Joined: 12/05/2011

MGoPoints: 16679

DonAZ

January 14th, 2015 at 9:49 PM ^

Your post made me curious ... so I grabbed some stats:

Russell Wilson - 5'11" 206
Marcus Mariota - 6'4"  219
Johnny Manziel - 6'0"  210
Andrew Luck    - 6'4"  240
Tom Brady      - 6'4"  225
Peyton Manning - 6'5"  230

I see your point about Mariota relative to Wilson ... he has 5" on Wilson but only 15 pounds.

Mariota is closer to Brady in terms of physical stature.  I'm saying nothing about football ability. 

I had no idea Luck and Manning were so big.

Still, I like the Mariota package ... there's just something about him that suggests a better possibility for NFL success than, say, the trainwreck-that-is-Johnny-Manziel.

Joined: 12/05/2011

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petered0518

January 14th, 2015 at 4:22 PM ^

I am really hoping he falls to the eagles and allows chip kelly to build a true spread offense with a dual threat quarterback like he had at Oregon. I might actually watch the NFL if that happened.

Joined: 08/05/2009

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OccaM

January 14th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^

I want my Eagles to get him, but that means we gotta go all Washington and mortgage the future of our franchise... Who knows maybe newly anointed GM Chip Kelly will go for it. 

Winston will probably go before Mariota if he can stay out of trouble. Mariota will go top 10 probs. 

Sigh... Foles better step it up next year. 

Joined: 11/10/2014

MGoPoints: 9158

BlueinOK

January 14th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^

I don't see his draft stock going any higher. For some reason, I don't see him being an elite QB in the NFL. He seems like the next Robert Griffin III. 

Joined: 12/06/2009

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