OT: Florida -9 at LSU?
I know LSU has not looked great in three tough road games, and have only played Vandy and LA-Lafayette at home. But they're getting nine points in one of the toughest places for a visiting team, against a Florida team with some questions at QB. Nine seems like waayyyyy too many points.
October 5th, 2009 at 2:41 PM ^
Considering the home team should get a free 3 points based on location, they're basically saying Jesus & Co. are two touchdowns better. Pretty steep for my liking as well.
October 5th, 2009 at 2:41 PM ^
They are the least impressive 5-0 team in the country. As much as I hate watching Florida win, They are going to win at LSU by 2 TDs without Tebow, 3TDs if Tebow plays
October 5th, 2009 at 2:52 PM ^
Usually, when a line stinks like that, you want to go against common sense. This seems like a situation where the linesmakers - who have better info than anyone - foresee a high likelihood of a Florida route. Be leery of putting $ on LSU.
October 5th, 2009 at 3:03 PM ^
The line has nothing to do with predicted outcome by the oddsmakers and everything to do with general public perception. Vegas just wants equal money bet on both sides. With all the Tebow hype for the last few years, people probably think Florida is a little better than they are, and with LSU playing some close games (but still winning) people probably think they are a little worse than they are.
Personally, I'm going to take LSU (and I really like getting 9 points), but it is easy to feel confident before kickoff.
October 5th, 2009 at 3:12 PM ^
How would Vegas make any money?
October 5th, 2009 at 3:16 PM ^
Also known as "the juice." When you make a point spread bet in Vegas, you have to bet 110 to win 100. That extra ten bucks on every bet is how they make their money. When they adjust the spread it is to entice people to bet the other side so that they can minimize risk (any difference in the amount bet on either team opens them up to losses if the game doesn't go their way).
October 5th, 2009 at 3:18 PM ^
for example, loser pays 110; winner gets 100
October 5th, 2009 at 5:22 PM ^
You are right that Vegas wants equal money on each side, but linesmaking still has a lot to do with predicted outcome. Generally, the big money comes in from the smartest gamblers (many are professional gamblers), and Vegas has to account for that when setting a line. Any idiot from the general sports watching public can see that LSU getting 9 at home is A LOT of points. What you'll have on this game is a lot of casual gamblers like yourself who place small bets on LSU, and a small number of big players (who have crunched the numbers as intensely as Vegas did) betting heavy on Florida. Of course, nobody knows what is going to happen in the game, but who would you rather be aligned with - casual gamblers or the smart money? I see you're going to take LSU. Good luck with that...
October 5th, 2009 at 3:10 PM ^
Isn't very good, based on what I've seen. Tremendously overrated team.
That said, I would never bet against that team at home.
October 5th, 2009 at 4:09 PM ^
scoring against a team who's defense has been a sieve to teams like South Carolina and Arkansas.
October 5th, 2009 at 5:10 PM ^
I thought this post was going to say 9 points is not enough.
October 5th, 2009 at 8:28 PM ^
My guess is that this game is closer than most think - SEC defenses stiffin up in big games....
October 6th, 2009 at 3:32 AM ^
Take the Mad Hatter at home at night and the points.