OT: Electric Vehicles
I am not an engineer, but I know that UofM had a pretty strong automotive engineering program back in the day. There also have been posts here the last couple years about self-driving cars. Like most Americans, I have not yet moved to an all-electric vehicle, although that day is coming. We own a Prius, and it sure beats the Honda Pilot for gas mileage.
I have seen much more on electric vehicles in the media, and in TV ads, and on the road. To wit,
- Yesterday in the New York Times there was a piece highlighting the surge in sales of all electric vehicles. LINK: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/business/energy-environment/electric-cars-vehicles.html?searchResultPosition=1
- Watching the Olympics, and pretty much any TV, there are ads and more ads for electric vehicles.
- Simply driving on the turnpike between Chicago and Cleveland, I've seen a vast increase in the number of charging stations, and I certainly am seeing more Tesla branded cars on the road. I personally know someone working for Rivian here in Illinois.
However, I've also seen several contrarian things.
- One video segment I watched suggests that the energy and raw material it takes to build an all electric vehicle wipes out much of the gain in reducing emissions.
- Another suggest that the cost of replacement batteries is so high that it will create problems 8 years after purchase, with a high cost to replace batteries not holding a charge any more.
- And I also am given to understand that the recycling of batteries is a difficult process, and what to do with old batteries will be a difficult problem.
- Lastly, there is also a question about what to do when the energy grid goes down. What happens if you live in an area where tornados have decimated communities? How do you charge your car when there all the charging stations are wiped out?
I'd love to hear from automotive engineers, from environmental engineers, from people working for GM or Ford or Tesla or Rivian or someone else in the business. And I'd be perfectly happy with links to good long form journalism pieces about electric vehicles. Given the long wait, and the high cost, I'm guessing I won't do anything any time soon. But I'd like to start thinking more about this.
February 10th, 2022 at 6:54 PM ^
We're a revolution in power storage away from electric vehicles being a potential universal solution.
It may be a slow revolution or a rapid one, but it hasn't happened yet.
Until that happens, electric vehicles will mostly remain a tool that is very useful for some people, mostly wealthier, and not very practical for others. Those with lower incomes and those in dispersed areas, or who need to take longer trips, will remain customers of gasoline vehicles; those who only need short commutes, particularly in denser areas, can and are moving toward electric.
Power production is also an issue that needs to be resolved and isn't being managed well right now, but there are options that can improve it. I suspect there will be some policy convulsions before that gets sorted out, though.
There are also possibilities for new fuel options to arise, but so far none of the alternative fuel concepts have gotten any practical traction. Glickenhaus is planning to run a hydrogen-powered truck at the Baja 1000 next year, though.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
Part of your answer suffers from outdated information. While it's certainly true that EVs are still more expensive, on average, than ICE vehicles, the premium is not nearly what it once was. For instance, the average selling price of a new vehicle in the U.S. is $46,426. For EVs, it's tougher to get an average (the range is from $20K to $185K), but it seems to be around $55,000-$60,000. Add in the $7,500 tax credit from the U.S. government, and you're certainly getting closer.
The big savings is keeping the car charged and maintained. A typical nighttime charging rate from DTE Energy here in SE Michigan is about $0.20/kWh. My monthly bill is about $40, although I haven't been driving as much due to the pandemic. When I compare my old driving habits, it's probably closer to $100/month. Still, that's less than gasoline to fill up my old car.
Then there are maintenance costs. The battery packs are definitely expensive, but lose less than 5% of their maximum charge capacity over 10 years. It's unlikely that most owners would ever replace them. That leaves a handful of moving parts (such as the motors and axles) and the tires and brakes to worry about.
As for range, that's a challenge in the winter here in Michigan. I lose 45% of my range due to the cold. But, my Mustang Mach E AWD with standard range is still capable of 140 miles in 20F outside air temp. In the summer, it's about 240 miles. Unless I'm going on a road trip, I don't even pay much attention to it, and because I can recharge in my own garage at night, I'm ready to go in the morning anyway. Oh, and I can even have the car pre-condition the battery, warm the cabin, seats, and steering wheel on a preset schedule or on-demand if I want. I wouldn't do that with an ICE car in my garage because obviously.
Where EVs don't make sense yet are in the following use cases: 1) People without access to at-home charging (charging on a public network is $$$) such as people living in apartments and/or who are required to park in the street. 2) Towing heavy loads/trailers and long road trips (charging still takes much longer than a gas fill-up, but that's improving each year). Within 5 years, I suspect recharging and fill-ups will be at parity in terms of the time required. Range should be as well. 3) People with lower incomes (for a whole number of reasons).
February 10th, 2022 at 7:35 PM ^
The battery packs are definitely expensive, but lose less than 5% of their maximum charge capacity over 10 years.
I'm calling BS here. It's hard to find any concrete studies, but everything I read says "under optimal conditions" they can last up to 200k miles, but that heat and cold can dramatically reduce their capacity and shorten their useful life. I've also read many estimates saying they lose about 2.5% of their capacity ANNUALLY, which is much different that 5% over 10 years.
I don't have experience with electric cars, but do have vast experience with electric industrial equipment ie forklifts, genie lifts, etc. Typically those do not ever see temperature extremes, and the useful life is estimated at 5 years with a noticeable capacity reduction each year. Yes, EV batteries are improving and pushing the boundaries vs. what has been used for industrial equipment, but your quote is not correct.
Just my $.02.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:40 PM ^
It depends on the manufacturer and model year, how often a DC fast charger is used, how "full" the battery is for each charge, etc. Lots of variables. In my case, I rarely use a fast charger, and only charge the battery to 80% of its rated capacity. So, I should be around 5-10% over a 10-year period.
https://www.drivingelectric.com/your-questions-answered/96/electric-car-battery-life-how-preserve-your-battery
https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a31875141/electric-car-battery-life/
February 10th, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
Agreed there are a ton of variables and so it's hard to arrive at a true average or "normal" degradation over time, but you just doubled your estimate and are basing your numbers off your ideal driving and charging scenarios. For the average driver, 5% degradation over 10 years is not close to accurate, especially if they ever rapid charge, see freezing temps or extreme heat, or tow anything.
Maybe, though, EVs just don't work for the average driver yet. Here's hoping that changes soon. If the tesla truck wasn't so hideous I'd consider trying one out.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:34 PM ^
Who do you think the average driver is? If anything the average driver could make do with the range of like the old nissan leaf. Range anxiety if you can charge at home isn't a real thing for the vast majority of drivers
February 10th, 2022 at 9:18 PM ^
You have been exposed to some bad data. The early EV's like Nissan's battery life suffered because they did not include any heat management features. Almost every EV since then has included batter heat management system and due to that the loss of range has been pretty small.
There is a very good video on this with some real-world data here:
February 11th, 2022 at 10:22 AM ^
Yeah you can find lots of data that says battery degradation is not that bad.
Here's one for Tesla:
You can find similar for Chevy Bolts etc just by googling.
We are at the point where we have enough data to pretty accurately model battery degradation in real world conditions.
People hold EVs to ridiculous standards that they don't hold ICE cars to. Ask yourself, does your pickup truck get the same gas mileage at 200k miles as it did brand new?
February 10th, 2022 at 9:41 PM ^
Hey redjug...I agree. Tesla design leaves a lot to be desired.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:15 AM ^
I've also read many estimates saying they lose about 2.5% of their capacity ANNUALLY, which is much different that 5% over 10 years.
Drivers have compiled quite a bit of data now that you can find if you frequent EV-related internet forums. If you're really interested I can go back and find some of those, but he is isn't too far off. The key is that capacity loss is not linear. The first year or two you tend to lose the most, and then it levels off. I'd say closer to 10-15% loss is normal over 10 years and that there is very little loss beyond that. Given the range of modern EVs that doesn't actually affect most daily usage very much at all.
I've driven a Bolt for 5 years with no noticeable change in the range after the first year.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:40 PM ^
With the average price of a new vehicle being $46,000 and the average annual household income being $67,000 it isnt practical for the average person to buy a new gasoline car let alone electric.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
Exactly. So while there is a lot of hand-wringing over the cost of a new EV, the cost of a new ICE vehicle isn't exactly couch change.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:02 PM ^
I'm not sure who is buying all these $46k+ cars; I bought a new Civic in 2020 for less than half of that...
February 10th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
In Detroit area, the majority of new vehicles are leased not purchased. Hard for many to justify the purchase of a vehicle when they can lease for much less. Often the leased vehicles are something a consumer would not purchase, but are willing to lease for 2-3 years because the price fits their budget
February 10th, 2022 at 11:39 PM ^
Unless you have a family or employee discount leasing is the most expensive way to operate a vehicle. That's why dealerships push them so hard now.
February 10th, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^
Part of the reason for such a strong secondary used car market. There are roughly 3x as many used cars sold every year as there are new cars sold.
February 10th, 2022 at 9:35 PM ^
I will admit to not knowing a ton about cars but I do think some of the numbers you're throwing around might be a bit rosier than reality for the current state of EVs. For example, the two top-selling EVs in the US in 2021 (by a healthy margin) were the Tesla Model Y and 3, with around 172k and 132k sold, respectively. Those two cars are between $39k to $45k base package. So that looks great on paper for EVs, but you can't compare them to all cars sold (which includes EVs in them) when we're talking about two sedans compared to much more expensive trucks, SUVs, etc. For a 4-door sedan their competitors (in terms of functionality) are your Toyota Priuses/Camrys and Honda Civics, at which point we're talking about cars with base prices in the $22k-$25k range. So that's a significant difference in terms of cost. If we're going by Tesla price point then we're in the entry-level luxury cars like Mercedes A-class, Audia A3/Q5, BMW 230/X1, etc. And at that price point I'd argue the quality of those Tesla models, including both interior and exterior quality, don't stack up. So that is a consideration - those are different buyers. It's why I'm impressed with the Chevy Bolt, which can be had close to $35k well equipped which is a price point that could be worth it to some people.
Also, I believe that $7500 tax credit doesn't apply after a manufacturer has sold their 200kth unit (but I could be wrong about the number), so I don't think Tesla or GM vehicles quality anymore. I do believe the BBB bill that languishes in the Senate would renew some additional tax credits for EV purchases, so perhaps that will change.
I also know that charging isn't super-efficient, especially in colder climates, because batteries can suffer from charging loss. Different charging tech and setups may mitigate this somewhat, but I live in MA and people I know with Teslas lament that as it gets colder outside they see their charging bill creep up and were basically told that was expected. Again, not a deal-breaker but something to consider. And if more people start charging at night my guess is electricity rates will go up because it'll cost more to generate that necessary power. Right now EV owners benefit from a (relatively) small user base of nighttime electricity. But more users will cut into that surplus.
And while I agree that electric generation is a fixable problem in this country, it won't be quick or cheap in part because more people are congregating in denser regions of the country even though sources of renewable energy are more dispersed. And infrastructure development necessary to realize that new world are notoriously slow and expensive.
I do agree range is getting better and is less an issue but in 2019 the average person drove about 15k miles a year, which means it's probably cheaper via an electric car but to what extent I'm not sure. And as for maintenance costs, I think that can be vehicle-dependent and is a mixed bag. Yes they don't need oil changes and some other maintenance procedures native to gas cars, but they're are fewer repair shops certified to work on them and diagnose problems, and as I famously remember one guy thought it better to blow up his Tesla than pay $22k for a new battery. Now obviously that's a bit extreme but I know here in MA a big deal about the Right to Repair law that passed was because it included Tesla. So provided that happens we'll see repair and maintenance costs drop but if that's not a national change then you may see pockets where you pay quite a bit more for first-party repair spots.
So overall I do think EVs are going to become more popular, and if they figure out how to expand the use cases significantly (and we've seen it with the electric trucks that are coming online) I expect even higher adoption. But it's going to take some time and there are still issues about power generation, waste handling, etc. that aren't necessarily going to go away and may drag down overall growth potential.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:20 AM ^
When's the last time you checked the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 price? Base Model Y with no upgrades to paint, wheels, 3rd row, or self-driving is 60k. If you get just the self-driving (which, why get a Tesla if you're not getting self-driving) and its $70k
February 11th, 2022 at 9:35 PM ^
"which, why get a Tesla if you're not getting self-driving"
Lots of reasons. It is still a great car. Self-driving is still in Beta. There is no guarantee that self-driving will be allowed (I believe it will, but you never know). And I'd rather buy $12k of Tesla stock right now than pay to be a beta tester (however, I am grateful to those that do).
February 11th, 2022 at 9:28 PM ^
"For a 4-door sedan their competitors (in terms of functionality) are your Toyota Priuses/Camrys and Honda Civics, at which point we're talking about cars with base prices in the $22k-$25k range."
Have you ever driven a Tesla?
"If we're going by Tesla price point then we're in the entry-level luxury cars like Mercedes A-class, Audia A3/Q5, BMW 230/X1, etc. And at that price point I'd argue the quality of those Tesla models, including both interior and exterior quality, don't stack up."
That is probably true, but if interior or exterior quality is your main selling point, then you might be concentrating on the wrong attributes of a car.
It's why I'm impressed with the Chevy Bolt.
I've never driven a Bolt, but $35k for a Bolt when you can buy a Model 3 for $39k? GM is lucky to have loyal customer's like you.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:43 AM ^
None of my information is outdated. Range and charging times remain a challenge; cost premiums aren’t as bad for new vehicles anymore, but there are large swaths of people (more, I think, than many people that are the target market for electric vehicles realize) that aren’t anywhere close to buying a new vehicle of any kind. My “newest” vehicle is 7 years old at this moment and I expect both vehicles I currently own to last me another 5 years. A lot of people I know operate this way. Electric vehicles aren’t feasible.
And, to another comment, 200 miles of range sounds nice, but: nobody wants to risk squeezing out every last mile of that range, and a lot of us *do* take longer trips than that. I take at least, on average, a trip a month that is longer than 200 miles round trip, often with my family, and a significant layover for charging isn’t practical (incidentally, we cross the UP ~4-6 times a year).
Electric proponents often handwave some of these practical obstacles, but as I’ve said, these are currently real limitations on who will realistically acquire electric vehicles until there are significant improvements in energy storage.
Perhaps it’s a radical improvement in charge times (say, a feasible system of rapid battery pack swaps with an interchangeable battery standard) or a significant expansion of range. But there are real limitations that affect significant portions of the population, and so electric cars are not yet ready to supersede ICE.
The solutions are achievable. It’s not like we haven’t seen transformative revolutions in existing tech that changes the market before; I’m typing this on one such ”revolutionary” product at the moment.
February 11th, 2022 at 2:45 AM ^
What you’re saying is that you’re not ready to buy an EV. But the range, charge times, price point w/ tax credits, and general environmental benefits are appealing to a lot of people, and the market share of EVs is skyrocketing today, not a decade from now.
I’ll grant that driving from Duluth across the UP probably isn’t the most electrified route today, but the state and the feds are prioritizing rural spots like Route 2 for electrification over the next several years. If Norway can accommodate 65% of new vehicles being EVs, then we can figure it out as well.
February 11th, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
Right, I’m saying that I and a number of people in various categories aren’t ready… which means that electric vehicles are not yet ready to be a universal solution… which is the exact point of my original post.
They are useful for some people, and not others, and a significant revolution in power storage is the major step that needs to be taken to change that. I am explicitly not arguing against them, nor arguing that they aren’t practical in many cases, nor arguing that they’ll never catch on.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
^^ this ^^
February 11th, 2022 at 8:15 AM ^
I am really struggling to understand the relevance of your point that you aren’t ready to buy a new vehicle today? People who are not ready to buy any vehicle are not the market audience for any new car, electric or ICE.
In fact, if you aren’t ready to buy a new car today, that seems good from the standpoint of an EV purchase in the future. Both range and fast charging infrastructure will certainly improve in the next 5 years. At that point an EV may meet your needs.
Tesla currently has a car with over 400 miles range and Lucid has one with over 500 mile range. Yes, these are currently high end cars, but in 5 years, who knows.
February 11th, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
I'm pretty sure they've been saying "in 5 years" for about 10 years now.
I 100% get people who live in the big cities don't see most of the downsides of owning an electric car. I 100% don't get those same people not understanding the other half of the country has very practical reasons why electric cars aren't feasible.
February 11th, 2022 at 1:39 PM ^
It's actually people who live in big cities for whom EVs probably make little sense unless there are L2 chargers in garages where they live. If they're parking on the street, they won't be able to charge easily without going to a DC fast charging location.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^
Hi. Where is any of this coming from?
Most EVs today have 200+ miles of range, which covers >95% of passenger trips. The new Ford Lightning extended claims up to 300 miles of range.
There will be situations where charging an EV is difficult (cross-country roadtrips, rural areas like the UP), but by and large they are already viable for most of what you'd use an ICE vehicle for today, and charging infrastructure is rapidly being built out around the country even before the federal money shows up in Q3 this year.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:40 PM ^
Liquid nitrogen should be the future but we’re “all in” on rechargeable batteries for the time being.
February 10th, 2022 at 10:56 PM ^
The world runs on oil and gas and always will.
February 11th, 2022 at 3:27 AM ^
"The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad."
"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will."
"There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home."
"640K software is all the memory anybody would ever need on a computer."
"They can't possibly hit us at this range-"
February 11th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
And coal.
February 10th, 2022 at 6:56 PM ^
Right now I think EVs are the "it" vehicle so you're seeing a bigger explosion in purchases because of that. I'd bet most EV purchases are going to homes that have ICE vehicles as a 2nd or 3rd vehicle. Currently the prices of these vehicles are just out of sight, I'm not sure how the average consumer could even consider getting one. One thing EV adopters haven't really come to grips on is that eventually electric refill prices are going to end up like gas refill prices. Even my little county PUD in WA is considering if/how they can charge more for the electricity going to fuel EVs/recharger stations. I like the movement behind EVs and with the science progressing on nuclear fusion (article out of the UK this week) they'll eventually be an even bigger part of the big work on climate change but it feels like we've got a couple decades before they really work out all the bugs and kinks and they take over for ICEs - the first, biggest step is bringing down prices.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^
I'll add that Ewan McGregor's "Long Way Up" show really opened my eyes to how viable EVs are becoming and also many of the challenges. They rode electric BMWs from the tip of South America to Los Angles and were supported by 2 Rivian trucks. It's an interesting watch.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:36 PM ^
I'm almost done watching all of Ewan & Charlie's various traveling series. Motivation for buying a new MC & start touring. They really pushed some boundaries - I mean lugging BMW 1200's across Siberia to start with. And then partnering with Harley and Revian to install smart-charging stations from Patagonia thru South & Central America to LA. Great watch, lots of stumbling blocks.
February 10th, 2022 at 10:17 PM ^
Agree, they were great series of adventures! Ewan glowingly spoke about his electric bike after Long Way Up. The Rivians seemed to hold up well. I’d love to buy the new Rivian SUV but $75k base is just not realistic for someone like me.
February 11th, 2022 at 12:25 AM ^
They were actually Harley's, not BMW's but it was a good watch.
February 11th, 2022 at 11:32 AM ^
Good catch. I knew it was one or the other but couldn't remember which. I think I might have been thinking BMW because that's what they rode on previous trips and who they tried to go with to start out. I was really impressed that they built all that electrical infrastructure and left it in place so others could use it in the future too. Very cool.
February 11th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^
The average car buyer, buys used, so wide adoption relies on building up enough used inventory over the next decade or so. For people looking to buy new cars a notch up from base model sedans much of the difference to comparable vehicles can be mitigated by reduced operating costs (and depending on how you evaluate older model 3 resale prices all of the difference is mitigated by better retention of value).
I'll add my wife and I bought a Model Y when we were looking to replace one of our 2 cars. Much like you mentioned we were thinking 1 ICE and 1 EV would help with the range anxiety/road trips. Living with it for a year, we won't be buying ICE when we replace our other car and we've made all road trips including a east coast to MI trip in the Y. To your point I wouldn't be as confident in the longer trips if not for the Supercharger network, but If you are considering a base tier luxury vehicle or higher trim none luxury and a garage or very nearby charger then EVs are likely already a better choice for this admittedly priviledged cohort, and there's almost no downside to switch 1 vehicle (the errand/shorter commuter) if you're a 2 car household with parking and access to a 120V outlet.
February 10th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
I'll never understand why auto companies refuse to look into plutonium-fueled nuclear reactors. The technology has been around since 1985.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:48 PM ^
I take it people didn't get your joke...
February 10th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
Was at the Newport Center/Fashion Island mall here in Orange County this weekend and they had a Tesla, Fiskar, and Lucid dealership. They are def on the rise and I’m thinking of converting after my next lease - just want to take a another few years for the amount of stations to increase
I gotta say, the Lucid car has the most insane trunk space I’ve ever seen on a car. It was very nice.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
Thank god CA is building a ton of nuclear power plants to produce the energy to charge those awesome electric vehicles!
PS. I like nuclear power. Clean and abundant energy.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^
Then you’ll be happy with France for deciding to build 5 more nuclear plants. Germany not so much.
Btw, CA has more than 3 times the solar capacity of Texas, the next closest state. Solar accounts for about 23% of CA’s total electricity output.
February 10th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
Shutting down Diablo Canyon is one of the dumber decisions made this century.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:20 PM ^
As someone who lives near Diablo Canyon I would disagree with this. The main reason Diablo is shutting down is because it makes no economic sense for the utility that owns and runs it, PG&E. It is PG&E's decision to shutter it. Do to massive solar installs in California, the day time price of electricity is almost zero and in many instances is actually negative. So the utilities here make their money selling late afternoon and night time power as solar goes offline. The problem with nuclear is that it can not be used as a peaker plant for just these times. So the expense of keeping the plant running all day everyday just doesn't pencil out. Nuclear doesn't make sense in sunny climates anymore.
February 10th, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^
I saw this video recently where they talked about the massive amount of unused land around a nuclear reactor. If they put up solar panels on the land, it would produce more power than the reactor!
Separately, I learned about the “Duck Curve” effect when solar/wind power generated electricity is added to the grid during the day and drops off at night. Interesting to see was happens to prices as supply & demand change throughout the day.
February 11th, 2022 at 2:11 AM ^
I doubt it, but willing to watch the documentary if you post the name of it.
References I've seen have solar needing about 10 square miles per 1000 MW. Then you need to consider that it's cloudy and dark sometimes --- so maybe 20 square miles for solar. Diablo Canyon was about 2000 MW. So, that's 40 square miles for solar.
A great documentary on nuclear:
Thorium 2011
February 10th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
I wish we subsidized nuclear generated electricity more. The tiny amount of fuel leads to reduced mining, transport, and waste. It's such a benefit to the environment when we really need to cut back on CO2 emissions.