Odds of Winning Conference
According to ESPN, Michigan has a 40.8% chance to win the conference. Next closest is the team down south with 36.0%. However, our remaining strength of schedule ranking is 54, middle of the pack, while Ohio's REM SOS RK is 18. REM SOS RK is from 1 (the hardest) to 128 (Appalachian State)
Other Notables
Conference Team % SOS RK
B1G MSU .2 6
B1G Iowa 5.5 46
ACC FSU 47.9 8
ACC CLEM 27.3 53
SEC BAMA 32.9 27
BIG 12 OU 39.6 31
PAC WASH 40.9 60
*App State has the best chance to win their conference of any team @ 75.4! Any AD in the Power 5 who tries to schedule App. St. for a season opener should be shot.
September 7th, 2016 at 10:27 AM ^
**except Mark Hollis?
September 7th, 2016 at 10:28 AM ^
Is there a link also?
September 7th, 2016 at 10:31 AM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 10:35 AM ^
DISRESPKT!
September 7th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^
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September 7th, 2016 at 1:55 PM ^
Their remaining strength of schedule seems to be way overestimated. This probably leads to an underestimate of their chances of winning the conference.
September 7th, 2016 at 11:22 PM ^
their remaining SOS overall is very tough since both ND and BYU are pretty tough non-conf games plus nine B1G games. But their overall SOS doesn't even factor into that chance of winning the conf, anyway.
What is crazy is that FPI only ranks them as the 47th (!!!) best team in the country. That's the reason they have such a low probability of winning the conference and that is some serious disrespekt. Gotta love it when the unbiased computer models think they're even worse than many rival fans!
September 7th, 2016 at 10:15 PM ^
That actually seems absurdly low. They are the third best team in the division, sure, but it's reasonably close and they have both of the better ones at home. They aren't favorites, but I'd bet on them at 1000:2 odds.
September 7th, 2016 at 10:37 AM ^
Most of the predictive sites have some pretty optimistic numbers up for Michigan right now, even keeping in mind that past performance does weight in some models to varied extents. At Massey right now, if you compounded the probabilities to figure out the relative estimated chances of going into the MSU game undefeated, it's still at nearly 40% at last report, which is great news that many games out from even that. Right now over there, the only two games which do not rate as "lean win", if you will, are MSU (right at 50%) and Ohio State (25% but this is only one game into the season, of course).
September 7th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^
Wisc is only 4.5% and rank 50, I guess ESPN wasn't impressed?
September 7th, 2016 at 11:26 AM ^
WI schedule is brutal. Even if they're the best team in the West, their schedule makes winning the division tough.
September 7th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^
There has to be a mistake with Iowa. 5th toughest SOS? Their schedule is insanely easy. Something is very wrong there.
EDIT: Just confirmed. Your numbers are way off for Iowa. They have a 0.1% chance of winning out, but a 5.5% chance of winning the conference and they have the #45 REM SOS.
September 7th, 2016 at 5:04 PM ^
good catch, I see 46 REM SOS, MSU still has .2%
September 7th, 2016 at 11:43 PM ^
I fat-fingered that 45.
September 7th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
When does your book come out? Is there a signing event?
I really hope Wiscy beats Sparty (duh) for the added benefit of possible College Gameday visit. As it stands it is a Top 10 game, if one more top 10 loses (say OSU loses in Norman) and UW rolls in here undefeated that game will be 4 vs. 8 or 9 and the marquee match up that week.
September 7th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 1:04 PM ^
If Wisconsin does beat Sparty (and UM is undefeated), I'd be really surprised if Gameday wasn't in AA. It's essentially the only opportunity for the show to come to campus this year, and that week's pretty bad.
The only other big games that weekend are Stanford-Washington which is out because it's Friday night, Louisville @ Clemson (Gameday is almost certainly going to FSU @ Clemson), and Tennessee @ Georgia, which is about the only other option.
September 7th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^
Well Wisconsin still has to play MSU, UM and OSU as their crossovers. Time will tell, but I bet they end up 1-2 in their crossovers (beating MSU, as if it wasn't obvious). I wouldn't say it's a given they come out of the west. I think they also beat Iowa, which really means it depends on how many games Iowa loses.
Oh, and should Wisconsin come out of the west, they have another game against UM or OSU. I would say their odds aren't that high at all given the circumstances.
September 7th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^
Yeah, I agree it's likely one of Iowa or Wisconsin. The only way it wouldn't be one of those two is if Wisconsin loses all their crossovers and Iowa is as mediocre as I think they are and loses the close games they won last year. Then Nebraska slips by based on easier crossovers even if they lose to Wisconsin.
I think your numbers are pretty close to mine. I'd tweak it slightly based on Wisconsin's tougher schedule, to win the west: Iowa (45%), Wisconsin (40%), Nebraska (10%) Others (negligable). I think Wisconsin is the best team, but their SOS is brutal, so I wouldn't be surprised if a middling Iowa wins the west, again.
September 7th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 11:44 AM ^
Iowa's given 0.1% chance of winning out. They are at 5.5% to win the conference. Nebraska is at 10.4% to win the conference. I find that dubious.
Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue and Illinois are all given 0.2% chance of winning the conference. That's whack. Mad disrespekt.
September 7th, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 12:50 PM ^
Nebraska has it lighter than Wiscy on crossovers: @ Indiana, @ OSU, vs Maryland. Not a walk in the park, but they should come out of that 2-1. Who knows w/ Indiana though.
Iowa on the other hand has: vs. Michigan, @ Rutgers @ PSU. They should come out of that 2-1.
September 7th, 2016 at 5:08 PM ^
favor Nebraska as a better team than Iowa this season, SOS notwithstanding.
September 7th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
SoS will change as the season rolls on.
September 7th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
App State is actually good. They were good when they played us (not as talented, no excuse to lose to them) and they are good now. They will win the rest of their games.
As for us that seems about right given a 50/50 shot of winning in Columbus (or 46% to FPI) and the various ways the rest of the Big Ten will likely shake out. We have the rough draw of crossover games, in that we will most likely have to beat a team twice in order to win the conference (unless Nebraska can make Tommy Armstrong not a disaster and win some key games).
September 7th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
If you assume that the playoff will contain the 4 Power 5 conference champions with the best records, then FPI currently has the most likely playoff as FSU, Michigan, Alabama, Washington. UW gets Stanford at home on a Friday night, and the rest of the Pac 12 is baaaad. This could actually happen, without even meaning that UW is that good.
September 7th, 2016 at 11:53 AM ^
CAN WE PLEASE JUST GET THROUGH THE MSU GAME BEFORE WE START BUYING TICKETS TO INDIANAPOLIS??
September 7th, 2016 at 11:59 AM ^
I'll never understand why OSU threw the championship game last year.
I know, they didn't really, but running the same play that was never going to work over and over...
I had to say this. It still bothers me. I could have called a better game and I'm an idiot.
September 7th, 2016 at 1:09 PM ^
Stanford did the same thing against MSU to make sure they lost the Rose Bowl.
September 7th, 2016 at 12:15 PM ^
Don't see how OSU's SOS is harder than ours...unless they're counting OOC games since OSU plays Oklahoma. But that game doesn't even really factor into the conference championship calculation. We have to play Iowa and they don't. And we have MSU, Iowa, and OSu all on the road.
September 7th, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^
I had the same thoughts, but you are not factoring in HARBAUGH!
September 7th, 2016 at 1:08 PM ^
They have to play us.
September 7th, 2016 at 5:00 PM ^
the table isn't related only to the conference. There's a probability of winning out (for which OOC games matter) and prob of winning conf.
September 7th, 2016 at 12:24 PM ^
This also has us as third most likely to remain undefeated (12.9%), after FSU and Boise State. OSU has a 4.5% chance to go undefeated and MSU has a 0.003% chance.
September 7th, 2016 at 1:08 PM ^
I like our chances against OSU this year regardless of venue. I believe we currently have more depth than they do, which could be very helpful by seasons end, and I think Browns defensive scheme > Meyers offensive scheme. I also liked our 2nd and 3rd string running up the score last week more than them leaving their starting qb in to pad his stats in the 4th quarter.
September 7th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^
Barrett was out of the game midway through the 3rd...
September 7th, 2016 at 1:32 PM ^
Apparently, per the Team Efficiencies ranking shown on the other tab on that page, we're currently the most efficient team in the country...
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/efficiency
September 7th, 2016 at 2:30 PM ^
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September 7th, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^
Are they as good as Alabama? Nope. But they've somehow had Saban's number the last 2 years.
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September 7th, 2016 at 3:05 PM ^
Can we please stop calling them , "The team down south " ? Its lame when They call us TTUN .
Lets not join them in their pettiness .
September 7th, 2016 at 3:21 PM ^
September 7th, 2016 at 5:24 PM ^
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September 7th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^
Not sure if this was posted above, if so, mods should go ahead and delete this. But I think you mis-typed something. The Link has Iowa at a 5.5% chance of winning the conference, not 0.1%. You accidentally read their likelihood to win out row.