Now that the basketball roster is (somewhat) settled.
I remain optimistic about next season.
IMO, both Diabate and Houstan were not great college players as freshman (they may ultimately become good NBA players) and so they will be easier to replace than some think. Furthermore there seemed to be something off about the team chemistry last year. I'm not talking about camaraderie but the on court players never seemed to completely meld as a team.
Some mixture of TWill, Cheddar, Barnes, Jace, Jett could prove to be better college players than freshman Diabate and Houstan. Plus I like the size of Llewellyn/Bufkin at guard compared to Jones/Brooks.
I think (humbly and respectfully) that Michigan is a lock for the NCAA tourny and will compete for the Big Ten.
Plus there remains the likelihood of at least one incoming transfer. I am on the Bates train if for no other reason to irk Sparty. I think our coaching staff has the cajones to deal with the baggage that might come along with him and could rejuvente his NBA prospects while adding some star power to the team.
Team chemistry and Bates are two things that could be in conflict with each other
I get why some have a fascination with Bates but I just don't see how it makes sense for Michigan. I view the worst case scenario with Bates as: bad teammate, bad defender and a ball hog that isn't bad enough to stick on the end of the bench but isn't as good as he (and his dad) thinks that he is. Once Big Ten season gets rolling some hangnail turns into a season ending injury and that is the last we see of him. The minutes Howard could have given to another player to prep them better went to someone that doesn't give a crap about the name on the front of the jersey and Michigan has a rough go of it and the end of the season.
On the other hand, perhaps Emoni and his dad have been humbled a bit and he comes in with a better attitude; he is more willing to be a complete player and is able to put his vast skills to use in a system that is best for the team. He remains healthyish but still bolts at the end of the season.
I will of course to cede to the coaches, but I think the former is a realistic scenario more so than the latter or anything in between. When the best case scenario involves him staying healthy, eating a large piece of humble pie but still bolting at the end of the year I do not see how the risk / reward helps Michigan but that's just me.
I don't think we need to worry about this one. My guess is that Bates ends up at Ypsi College for Those Who Prepped in Ypsi.
I thought Bates was going to Louisville. Did that fall through?
On the court chemistry will come back as soon as juwan realizes Hunter doesn't need the ball every trip down court
This is a rather bizarre bit of butthurt
Could be.
But perhaps Bates and family now realize that they need to change their mojo to rehab reputation and NBA prospects.
If so, don't you think the Michigan staff has the gravitas to pull that off?
"Lock for the NCAA tourny" feels a big aggressive at this point in the year. Too many question marks.: defense, backcourt, shooting. Just to name a few.
Here's what we know, Hunter Dickinson will be a rock.
The historical road of college basketball is paved with one super performer who has put his team on their back and dragged them to prominence. I'm not saying that's necessarily this team... but it's an option. Another option is that Llewelly and Bufkin pan out. The Howard brothers have some magic in there. And there's the chance that TWill or Barnes or Tschetter have breakout seasons. But all of that feels like a big giant question mark in June.
As for the Bates train... I'll wait for the next one, I don't like the direction that one's heading. Maybe the Pete Nance Express.
Got to wonder if the Howard brothers have any signature plays that they've worked on together since they were kids. Gotta think there is some sort of no-look dipsy-doo dunkeroo thing-a-ma-jig that they have down to muscle memory.
Reasonable answer.
But STILL, I think we're a lock for the NCAA tournament.
Yeah, we weren't a lock for the tourney this year and we're losing 6 of our top 9 players. Dickinson will be a beast this Fall, but Brooks, Smith, Diabate, Houston, Johns, and Collins are probably a better group easily than what we have replacing them. Of course Williams and Bufkin can improve too. It's about development, we'll need to develop several guys and have a couple of the newcomers come in ready to play right away too.
I love Hunter, but a team needs at least one of a great point guard or great wing player(s) to really bust through in the modern era. Dickinson will need some help, so somebody will have to step up if this team is to rise.
Agree if by "bust through" you mean, to be title contending. I think Llewellyn will probably be very good, not elite. Bufkin is the guy that could be elite. He's the wildcard that will determine if Michigan can "bust through" or not.
NCAA tourny lock?
IMHO, yes, given that Michigan starts off with an All-American center. All you have to do is surround him with 4 other competent players and you should break even in the Big Ten which almost always puts you in the tourny.
Some how we are forgetting that the other 4 players have the chance to not just be competent but good. Aren't they all (assuming Llewylln, Bufkin, TWill, Jett) 4-5 star recruits?
NO to Bates.
Roster is still not settled. M still has two open scholarships to fill and I'm sure it's going to be as dramatic as the rest of the offseason has been
Also I really hope it's not Emoni. The kid is a headache and we have a good thing going in the locker room. Pete Nance would be awesome but it seems like North Carolina is the favorite
He said somewhat settled.
I though Bates went to Louisville. With all of the hype he's had, and the amount his stock has fallen, you have to think he's motivated to show out and put the work in. I would think that last year was humbling. A little effort and his rookie contract is ?2-4x what it would be in the second round.
Bates & Louisville seemed like a lock, but he hasn't signed yet. Ant Wright on Twitter says it's not a done deal. With that being said, he's not a good fit for Michigan's needs currently. They need an experienced shooter at the 3. I would guess the coaches will be kicking some tires in the portal for the next month to see who can help this team.
I would like to see Pete Nance and Malachi Smith join the team.
youre on the bates train? i feel like if howard NOW accepts him into the program, it will be out of desperation. everyone has made it clear that it wasnt a fit, but ... this roster looks like b10 champs still to those that found it ridiculous to question it?
There are holes all over this roster and i think next year is likely to be a middling year - and we'll need to see some real player development to have hope for the year after - Barnes, Bufkin, Tschetter, Dug, Reed...
I'm cool with a meh year if players improve and show growth. I think Dickinson is going to be frustrated if there are no shooters to space the floor. But I love that he wants to stay in skool and give his all! Be the villian!
This roster currently has depth issues but I think the starting five looks very good:
Llewellyn
Bufkin
Jett
Twilliams
Dickinson
That could be the best starting five in the conference (if Bufkin makes a leap and Jett is as advertised).
The problem is the depth is...Jace at 3/4/wing...and a freshmen guard and a freshmen center. Need to address that in the portal but this team has a nice foundation.
youre confident that the transfer guard will work out? and as you point out, who is his backup? He's going to play 35 min a game??
youre confident that twill will make a big jump to starting B10 PF?
youre confident that freshman jett howard will be part of the "best starting 5" in the conference - a year after we had 2 top 20 talents come in and struggle in some or large part?
youre confident that bufkin will also make a big jump to starting 2 guard in the B10?
Where is the shooting on this team? Who will space the floor?
I think the starting 5 you layout could be fantastic in 2 years. I see more question marks than answers.
Guess we'll see...
I am confident in the former four star, top 100, all-Ivy league transfer guard, yes. Juwan has nailed two transfer PGs in a row and this guy is the most talented of the three. He is an excellent shooter. Much better than Jones was. Nothing is a sure thing, but he seems like a very good bet.
And yes, you're correct the depth is an issue right now like I said, but Llewellyn will be able to play 35 min, easy. Very common for guards to do that.
Twill doesn't need to make a big jump. Even if he's only marginally better than he was last year, that's a pretty good player. He was a 39% three point shooter and solid rebounder from the 3 position. He is a much better shooter than we had at the four spot last year so just having him there is a better fit overall than trying to play two centers.
I am not as confident in Bufkin and Jett, but that's why I said it could be the best starting five IF those guys perform well.
There's no denying Bufkin's potential. Where he falls on his potential spectrum is the big wildcard, IMO. If only marginally improved, this team will be just ok. If he's an alpha-dog...watch out.
And Jett should come in relatively polished as the coaches son and a guy that played elite HS basketball. I would be surprised if he's not close to or even more effective than Houstan was last year and that's pretty good from your "worst" starter.
But this is a much better shooting lineup than last years starting lineup. The defense will be a big question mark. Could be pretty bad unless Bufkin and Jett can be plus defenders. It was bad last year though, so...
its odd to me that youre so confident in shooting, given that houstan was supposed to be a dead red shooter and nobody filling his shoes projects that well.
I hear all your points, but we disagree on the outcome. Bad defense and bad depth in the big ten = lower half of the league.
I'm not sure it's that important what Houstan was supposed to be. The reality was he was just ok at 35.5%. And some people (like Craig Ross) predicted some struggles given his FIBA performances.
Jett does project to be in that ball park of mid-30s. That's not that hard to do. Plus, Houstan was legit bad inside the arc at 43% from two. His Orating of 103 on just 17% usage shouldn't be that hard to replace or even improve upon. There this post hoc narrative about him because he's going to get drafted but that's only on potential. He wasn't actually a very good college player for Michigan.
So yeah, when you go from a meh shooting PG to a very good one and from a PF that doesn't shoot at all to an above average shooting stretch four, you project to be a much better shooting team even if Bufkin can't quite do what Eli did. Add in another year of improvement for Dickinson and all the starters should be able to shoot, most of them above average for their positions.
I'm also not saying anything about the outcome other than this is an ok team if Bufkin is only marginally improved and it's probably a really good team if he's a star (also assuming we get some useful depth via portal). I'm not sure what the odds are of those scenarios.
I would def not bet on them being a conference title winning team (just too hard to do vs the field, and yes, too many question marks as of right now: depth and how good Bufkin and Jett will be)
An Ivy Transfer (who I think will be good)
A sophomore that wasn't good as a freshman/didn't play much
A true freshman who wasn't a top 10 recruit (who I think will be good given time)
A 6th/7th man from last year's roster
A stud
If sitting here right now, that looks to be potentially the best starting 5 in the league, that's more of an indictment on the league than anything else. Dickinson is a great piece to work around, but there are significant gaps elsewhere along with the depth question.
You can't coach around terrible shooting, that was very evident last year. The staff could get guys wide open, but if they can't hit, it's a huge problem with Dickinson being more of a traditional big (that developed an ok outside shot). Williams was at 38% last year on ~50 attempts. Not proven to be a great shooter. Llewellyn has been a good shooter in the Ivies, but as we saw with Smith and Jones, the transition takes time. Jett doesn't have the shooting pedigree Houstan had, and we saw how bad Houstan could be. Bufkin was in the 20% range last year.
Recruiting 5-star, 1 on and done type players is a good thing to do. It's probably a requirement to win a NC at this point. But the roster management outside of that is VERY important and it's fair to say that has been a bit iffy due to the transfer portal and weird stuff with guys like Collins and Michigan's transfer credit issues. All of that is to say, they need help and in the future they need to have buffers (the best they can) for when a guy doesn't come in as a freshman and dominate or decides to leave early that they were hoping to carry the team for at least 2 years.
I'm more 'glass half full'. I think L is a proven commodity and the rest of the guys just need playing time and knowing they will be getting minutes. Plus, we should be able to get some bodies to contribute via the portal
It is a bold prediction to think we will be a better team next year. We will be featuring:
1 - Ivy League Up transfer
2 - Unproven but talented Sophomore
3 - True Freshman?
4 - T-Will
5 - Hunter
someone makes sense... but BOOOOOOOOO... BOOOOO
Yup. More troubling is... who is behind those 5 starters (2-3 of which are TBDs) that is ready to play?
To be fair, the last two years we have counted on an up transfer PG (Smith, Jones) and a true freshman (Hunter, Houstan, Diabate) and we had decent success.
As for backups, my best guess is:
1 - Dug McDaniel
2 - Jett/Barnes
3 - Barnes, Jace
4 - Reed, Tschetter
5 - Reed.
And hopefully a transfer combo guard and wing.
Cheddar?
The Big Cheese
Will Tschetter maybe?
Let’s assume so.
Cheddar Bob. Recruit out of Detroit. Plays with a lot of heart but his shooting is a bit wild.
I'm optimistic about the team.
I think Howard will end up landing one of the big remaining transfer fish- whoever it may be.
Dickinson is arguably the best big man in the country- he's a guy that you can give down low and expect a bucket. I'm HOPING that Bufkin starts tapping into his potential because he has a lot. I'm excited about the PG transfer and Howard.
It sucks that Moussa and Caleb are gone; however, the team was really, really average last year. Something was amiss with the way the team was structured. It was frustrating watching Terrence Williams come in the game, hit threes, play great, and get benched. I'm hoping he gets a lot of minutes because he's a beast.
Somewhat settled? Now that we officially have 2 less scholarship players the roster is anything but settled. What a weird and inaccurate title.
5 players COULD end up better than Diabate and Houstan, and our unproven guards’ size will translate to better guard play for some reason. There’s a whole lotta lazy analysis going on right there.
Lock is a bit strong with 2 holes still in our unsettled roster.
And giving an important roster spot to a player just to irk a rival is something that a 12 year old would say. I’d prefer to bring in someone that could actually help us win basketball games.
I'm still unsure if we even have two playable guards on the roster.
Our PG is an Ivy league up transfer who is more combo guard/shooter than a pure point. His backup is a 5'8 true freshman without a jumper.
Bufkin looked absolutely lost on the court for a lot of his minutes last season. His backup is... Does he even have one? Jett is going to be needed at the 3 and Barnes looks more wing than guard.
I think next season plays out very, very similar to last season minus the early expectations. Going to be some struggles and a real bubble watch before ultimately being a 7-11 seed.
Significant roster churn seems to be the new normal at the top tier of the sport. The result is much less continuity than many are comfortable with. The roster, chemistry, and approach are reinvented each year. The ability to quickly integrate new pieces while preserving some thread of continuity seems to be the hallmark of the most recently successful programs (Gonzaga, Villanova). I feel like our coaching staff is well equipped to build and sustain this model.
While I'm still disappointed in Frankie leaving, I'm optimistic about this team especially if we can bring in a few transfers. Llewellyn, Bufkin, Jett, Williams, Dickinson is a decent team if Williams continues how he was playing at the end of the season and Bufkin can take that next step that we think he can. I'd love to bring in someone like Pete Nance or Jacob Grandison. Apparently there is some Joey Baker buzz as well who could be interesting piece. Weird that he could never crack the lineup at Duke though
Yeah was just thinking that...Frankie's transfer makes less sense by the day. What was he/they thinking? The opportunity in front of him with UM was damn near perfect...and he traded that for what...ASU a bottom half P12 team, that has zero national cred and will be lucky to make the tournament...nfw.
Eh, nothing has changed re: his situation since Llewellyn signed. Houstan and Moussa's decisions didn't impact him. He didn't want to compete with Llewellyn, seems pretty simple. Didn't want to possibly be a backup again. It seems like a cowardly decision but makes sense if you just want a starting job practically given to you.
Apparently Frankie was considering transferring in January due to lack of playing time and his family was even mad they were bringing in Dug McDaniel. Then bringing in Llewelyn was the nail in the coffin that drove him off. Kid wanted to play early and often with no competition
There are rumors of Joey Baker from Duke being a major transfer portal target for us. Baker has been a low usage Just A Shooter bit player for Duke. He did shoot 40% from 3 this past year but his numbers were much worse the year before so the truth probably lies in the middle. He is a grad transfer though so he's definitely an experienced high major option, which has its benefits.
I’ll take it. Give me anyone who can reliably shoot.
He was a 39% guy his sophomore year too so his career 38% is probably projectable. Seems like he'd be a nice addition at wing/SG depending on his defense.
There are 358 NCAA division 1 basketball teams.
16 made it as far as Michigan last season, “but the on court players never seemed to completely meld as a team” with +/-3 freshmen on the floor for the majority of available minutes.
Let’s do that, at a minimum, for another five consecutive years (adding to the existing five consecutive year run - which is a 1st for any conference team, in the history of the conference).
If it isn’t broken, break it? Where have I heard that before…?
It seems like Bates is only available because every other legitimate contender was like "Thanks, but not thanks."
That feels like an unwise path to go down.