NFL Combine - Articles - Michigan OL "years ahead" and "Opt outs" - Discussion
As most of us know - the NFL Combine just took place with some interesting feedback from those who participated and others who followed it.
The news about JJ was great to follow - and other threads here have touched on that. There were two other non-paywalled articles that caught my attention. One dealt with Michigan's OL and how advanced they are, while the second touched on "Opt Outs" - players (usually high profile) who elected to not work out at the Combine or interview.
Here's a link to CBS' Michigan OL article: https://247sports.com/college/michigan/article/michigan-offensive-linemen-nfl-combine-draft-sherrone-moore-daniel-jeremiah-nfl-network-interview-227965338/
Here's the link about Opt Outs from Yahoo Sports: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/as-stars-like-marvin-harrison-jr-and-caleb-williams-pull-plug-on-nfl-combine-drills-the-league-grapples-with-the-opt-out-generation/ar-BB1jc9p9
So, what are my perspectives? Michigan's OL has been solid the last three years. Why? Is it the Covid season and older lineman? Is it the techniques and schemes? If so - who's responsible for that - Moore, Harbaugh, a combination? Any concerns about it being sustained?
Regarding the Opt Outs - especially for Top Ten players - what are your thoughts? As an NFL GM who needs to make draft decisions - with a significant commitment to first round picks and the associated contracts - would you be content to rely on college film without any participation in the Combine to provide a "standard" reference point?
The NFL Draft is about seven weeks away. What are your thoughts? Will Michigan's OL continue to be a strength of the team? Would you commit a high first round pick to select a non-injured player who didn't work out at the Combine?
Enjoy Monday... Go Blue!
Ben Herbert
They have tons of data now without the combine. Combine drills mainly for show and to benchmark guys from smaller programs where the data is spottier. Measurements and interviews still matter but everyone is still doing those.
I'd rely more on game film than workout results (NFL combine). The combine results are a nice extra data point to add but you don't play football in shorts and t-shirts, so it would not count for much in my mind as a hypothetical GM.
If a player does not want to participate in workouts, it feels like a potential red flag but whatever. If they do not participate in any interviews that would be a major red flag to me.
As far as our OL being years ahead - I think that is mostly a Harbaugh/Moore thing. The extra half season during Covid probably had a minimal impact. I think it should be sustainable with Moore at the helm.
If a player does not want to participate in workouts, it feels like a potential red flag but whatever.
If you're guaranteed certain spots ie Williams, Maye, Daniels, Harrison, etc, what's the upside in participating?
Are those the only guys who are not participating? Williams and Harrison I get, but outside of those two not so sure.
I think Maye and Daniels could separate themselves from one another given a good combine, maybe that extra slot or two above doesn't matter. By not participating it kinda gives off a vibe of "I'm more worried I won't show out and it'll hurt my stock".. just my opinion.
That's exactly what they're doing and why. Their agents are probably looking at the history of similar guys in the combine and figuring there's a higher probability of moving down than up if they do combine stuff. Bad days happen to everyone, and you wouldn't want a single bad day to detract from a career's worth of work.
Bad days happen to everyone, and you wouldn't want a single bad day to detract from a career's worth of work.
Agreed. But I'm just not sold on anyone outside of MHJ in this draft. I know Caleb Williams is seen as the consensus #1 QB but I don't see it. I think Williams, Maye and Daniels all look about the same to me and then obvious bias toward JJ but I think he has a great chance to be better than any of those three.
I also lumped in team interviews with participating, so if we're just talking on-field drills then ya'll have changed my mind.
Everything I've heard about Marv from un biased people says he's not lazy or self centered. There is probably a good reason why he chose not to do a work out other than "what's in it for me?"
I think there are three "stronger" WR's who will likely go earlier in the first round - my question is at the QB spot.
IMO - it obviously helped JJ a lot to be at the Combine. I wonder what it did to the other QBs in the conversation. Will it impact Williams, Daniels, Maye, Penix, etc.? It seems like almost everyone is project Williams as the first pick.
This is a lot of misinformation being pondered in this thread.
Caleb, Maye & Daniels all made an appearance at the combine. Maye & Caleb gave interviews to NFL Network saying they'd done some face to face meetings with teams, but were doing their physical testing at their individual pro days. Daniels may have actually left without getting measured or doing any meetings, coverage of him was minimal. Never saw that Marv had even made an appearance in Indy.
JJ met with 11 teams for interviews, got measured and threw, but didn't run at the combine. He also will do the bulk of his physical testing at his pro day and the in-person meetings he said he has scheduled with a few teams, but kept the identities confidential.
JJ (with his representation) clearly decided that his best approach was to make himself visible & available, to teams as well as with Michigan's foremost booster in the media, Rich Eisen.
Seems it worked too. Some are now suggesting Arizona may trade out of 4th to a team wanting JJ there!
He sure didn't fight for the ball on Will Johnson's pick. Not saying he's either of the traits you mentioned, but I was really not impressed by his effort on that play.
What is more likely: that your view of Harrison is biased or that all the reporting by NFL insiders is wrong?
I dislike that he's a buckeye but he more than passed the eye test in his NCAA career.
Oh I agree he's cream puff.. I'm just saying from what I've heard he's not a prima-donna.
Probably based on the fact that he’s a near generational talent at the WR position (no, he’s not Randy Moss), with great size, speed, ball skills technique, catch radius and grew up learning the position and know all the finer nuanced points of the position without needing a 3 year NFL learning curve.
His route running is elite, smart young man. Nabers may actually have a slightly higher theoretical ceiling due to after catch speed and change of direction, but Marv is as close to can’t miss at the WR position as you can get…and no apparent diva or character issues.
No need to entertain combine workouts.
Albert Breer (yes I know, OSU grad) authored a very interesting article this morning on the opt-outs and why NIL is changing the combine to a more player-controlled event. He said the elite players are taking the position of "why give other teams that will never draft me an opportunity to see my medical records" and I get it. He also emphasized this only works for players certain to be drafted in the top half of the draft.
A critical point going forward is this was the first year where virtually all players have had agents throughout their college playing days and to look for more and more individual player control as opposed to years past when it was all about the shield.
"This team will never draft me" ignores the surprise moves that get made every year with teams moving up, guys falling in the draft, etc. I think it also potentially causes problems down the road for if/when a team might want to acquire you in some way.
If you're standoffish at the draft and then something happens in 3 to 5 years where you're asking for a trade, you're being shopped, etc., and a GM could potentially trade for you...but you were a problem at the draft, then perhaps that carries over.
It's similar to college recruiting now. You don't want to burn bridges with a recruit in the 2023 class (*cough* Dante Moore *cough*) because he could be back on the market in 2024. That's a little more rare in the NFL with the guaranteed contracts and such, but you never know.
Most of these guys who are opting out of the combine will do private workouts for the nfl teams.
Exactly. Included in this is their school’s pro day. It allows them to perform where it’s more familiar to them, on their terms, and with a couple of extra weeks to prepare. If you have nowhere to go but down, then why not wait and be a little more in control of the process.
Someone needs to send the OL article to David Sanders. He just put out is top 6 and Michigan isn't represented. Instead, he only has one Big 10 school listed and that is OSUck.
I'm just bummed I didn't get to see JJ run the 40. Wanted to see how fast he really is.
Ditto. But he did run the 3 cone drill and had the fastest time of any QB (and very comparable to RBs & WRs) and had the 2nd fastest throw (61 mph) behind our old friend Joe Milton at 62.
Some context as he was the fastest among 4 quarterbacks who participated.
I believe McCarthy had the fastest shuttle time of any QB in the past five Combines, just to give it a little more context.
But, JJ's arm strength is "way low" - according to some. And, that's an ironic thing since it sounds like JJ's "strength" / speed of the ball was only one MPH lower that Milton - and - Milton appears to have set the record for QB arm strength.
I'm SO glad JJ participated in the Combine - and, am really looking forward to following his career. I hope he surprises a LOT of people - especially with his defensive recognition - poise - maturity (despite being the youngest QB in the draft) - etc.
Go JJ. Go Blue!
He's in the Way-Low 60s
I think teams are seeing the leadership skills JJ brings to the table. His character, work ethic and team 1st attitude is exactly what you want in a franchise QB.
Add in the arm strength and athleticism and the upside is really good.
I am hoping he doesn’t land in the NFC North as a Lions fan, unless somehow it was with the Lions, because I will be rooting for the team he plays for.
andddd we still can't pull in elite OL. i'm not criticizing, and perhaps a hungry 4 star is a better option than an entitled 5 star. just seems odd that we cant pull 5 stars who see development, winning, awards, etc..
Again its not an area of "concern" on the team, but would be nice to keep raising the ceiling. Its what we see the elite teams doing even after winning.
Mike Mussina joined the yankees off winning a WS because Joe Torre called him literally the day after the yankees won.
Enjoy the highs, but never be satisfied, is my point.
andddd we still can't pull in elite OL
Well, shit, we once again aren't going to be the winner of the recruiting ranking championship. Son of ***damned bitch.
Look at Sanders' top six and ask yourself, what does this young man value? Seems pretty apparent to me.
If a kid doesn't want what Michigan is selling, that's fine. I appreciate the honesty, to not have Michigan in your final group as a token or in order to try and pry a better offer out of another school.
As usual Michigan will have to recruit guys who are marginally less exciting athletically as pro prospects, build them up, coach them up and deploy them to excellent effect.
I wrote more than those 8 words. I'm not concerned about our OL. I just think we could raise the ceiling with a few higher tier athletes. Don't forget that we don't win much the past 2+ years without transfers like Olu, Nugent, Henderson, Hinton etc...
Maybe that's the best model Get 3-4 star guys who will stick around for at least 3-4 years so they develop, and then supplement from the portal with guys who are now physically mature and need sharpening in prep for the draft.
If that's the case, I'm in! But, a couple high ceiling guys could support that model still
5 stars expect to play right away and that isn't likely at Michigan as of now
I wonder if the blocking schemes and adjustments are so intricate that it "takes a while" to be productive and contribute to Michigan's OL.
My view is - the OL is the most complex / intricate / interdpendent position group on the field. If you add Michigan's formations - up to three TE's - you could essentially have eight on / near the LOS. One missed assigment / adjustment of the "five to eight" OL / TE's - and, the play can be blown up.
I'm "old school" - and things have changed quite a bit since Bo's days. Back then - OL usually needed to add a bit of weight and strength before they could contribute. The size of players today - well, they're definitely big enough - but, is their strength and knowledge where it needs to be to contribute.
This season will be a joy to watch - Go Blue!
For some, perhaps... but there are 5 stars who come in and play early. Kinda wonder if its similar to the old QB notion in the NFL... if you start them and they struggle or aren't protected, you actually damage them because they form bad habits that aren't breakable.. e.g. David Carr. Used to be a mandatory year to wait in the NFL because of this.. and because usually the teams taking QBs were in dire need of a lot of help beyond QB.
The balance we've had between recruiting and transfers has been very nice, but I don't know if its sustainable. I hope it is because poaching 2-3 quality OL who are 4th or 5th year guys aspiring for the NFL is faaaaaaaantastic. But we went from 2 to 3 to 1... so we'll see.
5 stars probably expect a 'signing bonus'. While UM's NIL seems to be doing good, from what we tend to hear UM doesn't give a 'signing bonus' to a recruir.
I'm fine with opt-outs. You should be weighing the costs/benefits as an individual, and deciding whether the Combine can help you personally.
For a lot of our guys, the combine makes sense because they aren't considered the very top players at their positions and they test very well. JJ is a perfect example, with his excellent drills performance and his high-end measurables. I'm still pleasantly surprised he was just 1 mph slower than Milton with his throw.
EDIT: There's also the ever-present risk of injury from doing stuff you wouldn't normally be called on to do. Like linemen having to run 40 yards.
I seem to recall Michigan lineman running 40+ yards multiple times to celebrate with Donovan Edwards in the endzone in important games the last few years.
Such as...vertical jump? Broad jump? When's the last time you saw an offensive lineman have to jump in any capacity?
The 40 is actually one of the more realistic tests. No, linemen don't run 40 yards in a straight line very often...but they do on occasion if there's a big run, if they get out on a screen pass, if they're chasing down a blocked kick or an interception.
There are zero plays where an offensive lineman needs to jump - not on offense, not on defense, and not on special teams.
So sure, let's do away with some Combine drills for linemen...but not the 40.
FWIW, broad jump is actually highly useful for offensive linemen and seems to add some independent value. The analytics focused teams really care about it. Surprising to me too, but the numbers don't lie.
I'm not saying it's not useful. I'm just saying that if we're going by things that are actually done on the field, then vertical jump and broad jump should go bye-bye for offensive linemen. I've literally never seen an offensive lineman jump vertically during a play. I have, however, seen lots of linemen have to run 40+ yards.
But that's not what they're trying to do. They want to get data that's as predictive of NFL performance as possible. My understanding is that - inexplicably - broad jump is an independent variable that helps predict NFL performance for OL, even on top of college game film, measurements, etc.
It's like how the SAT and ACT are highly predictive of college performance, even though you don't take standardized tests in college. Sometimes drills or tests can be predictive even though they don't seem like they would be.
BTW did you see the video of Blake in the hole recognition drill (not sure what's official name is) overlaid with the video of another RB who had a much faster 40 time?
Blake absolutely crushed him (was at least five to seven yards further downfield at the end) because his vision and ability to translate that into a cut was so good. Seems to me the ability to recognize where the hole is and accelerate into it is a LOT more important to a RB than straight line speed.
The one where he was up against Marshawn Lloyd? Yeah, I saw that. I think Corum is going to be a solid NFL back.
There are zero plays where an offensive lineman needs to jump - not on offense, not on defense, and not on special teams.
I wouldn't say zero--I could envision a lineman jumping to try to catch/knock down a batted pass, for instance--but your larger point still stands...
When's the last time you saw an offensive lineman have to jump in any capacity?
It's a requirement to play for Ryan Day.
Michigan's OL has been solid the last three years. Why? Is it the Covid season and older lineman? Is it the techniques and schemes?
I says it's both. Perfect practice makes perfect and the older guys have more reps. Coaches are making sure they do it right.
As for going forward, as the younger linemen become upper classmen, they (and the coaches) will instill their wisdom on the younger players (hey kid, this shit works!). Hopefully someone doesn't get hired and change it all up.
I'm sure there will be some bumps in the road next year with the OL, but I like the idea that they go pretty deep with guys who will be in at least their third year of college football.
JJ was smart to bulk up for the combine. Smarter to not run a 40 there. And he'll be smartest to drop that extra weight and run a 40 on Michigan's pro day.
Opt outs are nothing new, have been the norm for literally decades. That's why they have pro days.
The opt out issue is way more than just the top players. Players across the board are only participating in the events they're good at. And even then, it's about avoiding downside risk as your linked article said. For example, Roman Wilson didn't run a shuttle or 3 come after claiming off the charts numbers via the Freaks List last year. Why do anything to change a positive opinion?
Why do anything to change a positive opinion?
Because not doing it makes it seem like you have something to hide?
I’ll admit that it’s perplexing about the OL recruiting.
-2 of the past 3 seasons as Joe Moore award winners, and the third as a finalist.
-You have the data points of the transfers who come in and excel, most notably with Olu.
-And you have Zinter and Keegan (mostly ZZ), who have gone through the program and will be drafted and be multiple year starters in the nfl. Zinter, in particular, had the chance sans injury to make it to the first round this year as one of the top IOL in the country(his injury is hurting his draft stock unfortunately).
Given those, you’d think that higher end HS talent would be knocking at the door for at least a look around to see if the development aspect of Michigan’s program for their NFL future can outweigh the NIL differences. And, you’d have to think that in some cases a recruit might opt for that better development as a long and productive career in the NFL would certainly outweigh the immediate cash benefit of choosing a Miami, Ole Miss, or OSU college NIL.