August 19th, 2011 at 11:20 PM ^
Again, you are looking at only 4 games. Congratulations, you had 4 good games last year. I won't argue that at all.
And while I think its likely that you beat USF, a domer fan coming on a Michigan board and saying it'll be an easy win just comes off as arrogant to me.
I thought we were going to beat UConn last season. But I wasn't on ND boards spouting off like it was a guaranteed victory. I try to be realistic about my team and its expectations.
August 19th, 2011 at 11:37 PM ^
Well if there is a domer thread started on any board you can expect a domer's opinion to follow. I guess it is arrogant to think a domer could have a peaceful relationship with rival fans
August 19th, 2011 at 11:53 PM ^
If you're offended by my comments than you need to grow some thicker skin IMO.
All I have said is that the other ND poster came off as arrogant when stating USF would be easy, and that ND fans tend to make a lot of excuses.
I also happen to think that your team is vastly overrated, as they have been for a decade.
I'm sure you think some things about Michigan and its fanbase that aren't very nice either.
None of this means that we can't be "peaceful" as you stated. But you cannot expect to be on this blog without someone going after you a little. Try going on a OSU or MSU blog as a MIchigan fan and you will get treated far worse than I have been treating you.
I respect you, ND, and the rivalry. I just happen to get extremely fired up about it. Overall, however, I think you contribute more to this blog than you take away from it. Just don't be too offended when I go after you because unfortunately it is just in my nature.
This is as close as I can come to a peace offering, so I hope you can accept.
August 20th, 2011 at 12:33 AM ^
It's not USF's offense you need to worry about, it's their defense. They were close to a top 25 defense in the country last year and have 8-9 starters returning. And ND's offense last year? Not so impressive. ND's most reliable offensive skill player (Kyle Rudolph) is now gone. You better hope USF's offense sucks, because you are not going to win a shootout against them.
August 20th, 2011 at 6:38 AM ^
NDs offense will be in year 2. But the reason for the optimism is the turn around on defense. We haven't had anything to look forward to on defense for years.
August 20th, 2011 at 8:04 AM ^
Rudolph was done for the season following the Pitt game, which was game 6, Eifert had a great season in his absense. He isn't draftable as a junior but he will do very good things for this offense. Minus a lineman, a RB and a QB battle this is the same offense in those final 7 games.
August 20th, 2011 at 3:19 PM ^
Not sure where you are getting 8-9 starters returning on defense-
Rivals says they return 6, Phil Steele has them returning 5.
Their defense is very overrated because they have FLORIDA ATHALEETES with FLORIDA SPEEED... they play weak big east offenses week after week. They aren't as good as advertised.
August 19th, 2011 at 9:19 PM ^
Why is there so much hype for ND early every year? They ALWAYS recruit high end talent. They always get some of the best players in the region, but they've had so many mediocre seasons in the past few years. You could say the same thing about Michigan's team this year, but the difference is a gigantic (tremendous) defensive scheme change that not only puts many players in their natural positions, but will be run how it is supposed to be. (Side note on the side note: The 3-3-5 is a really effective defense if used properly in that it's extremely blitz heavy. Constant 3 man rushes only serve to expose holes in zone coverage).
ND will have players at every position; nobody can argue that. But the test will be beating some actually good teams. I think this will be a closer game than most people would think but ND will still win simply because they do have offensive weapons that USF cannot fully match up to and the ND defense should be solid.
I highly doubt that ND will get a BCS berth. (Though stranger things have happened. Cough.. cough.. UCONN .. cough).
August 19th, 2011 at 9:22 PM ^
If they beat Miami and Clemson last year, they sound like a very legitimate squad. Did they lose tons of players? A game could break out here. Just a few years ago, USF was constantly being (over)rated in the top ten to fifteen. I never agreed with that, but it would seem like some years, USF should be taken pretty darn seriously.
And again, Michigan bias aside, ND does tend to get a bit overhyped any time they have a glimmer of hope.
Would anyone like to stop picking on the OP and answer his question? ;) Does USF have a chance this year? ? ?
August 19th, 2011 at 9:39 PM ^
Yes, I can help you out here - I went to USF for undergrad and follow the team very closely.
USF's defense has a LOT of team speed. They were fast last year when they finished 17th in the country in total defense and should be even faster this year. This will be their second year with their new D-coordinator and they should all know the playbook by now and know their assinments. It is impossible to run to the outside against them. They have good linebackers and safeties, and good rush ends. Their weaknesses on defense will be size on the D-line and they don't really have a lock down corner, so Floyd worries me. If ND wants to put up points against this defense, they will have to open their playbook. The USF defense is solid.
Offensively, on the other hand, they have a lot to prove. BJ really struggled last year in the new offense. The line didn't block for him very well, he missed a lot of open receivers, and he made a lot of arrant throws to DBs. He did progress throughout the year though and played really well in the bowl game against Clemson. Their receivers will also be upgraded this year over last. Last year their 2nd and 3rd receivers on their depth chart got hurt during fall camp and missed the entire year. Now they are both back and they also have some good rookies that will contribute (Andre Davis and Ruben Gonzales). The RB situation will also be improved over last year. They have two solid RB's in Murray and D. Scott. A poster above mentioned Aycock, but he actually is no longer with the team. Murray and Scott will probably split carries at the beginning of the year, but I expect Scott to take over the starting role once he has a chance to prove himself in games - he's had a great camp and the coaches rave about him.
In general, the team should be much better than they were last year. Listening to the coaches tone and excitement from this year compared to last is like night and day. Last year, the coaches' sounded a lot like Michigan's do this year. They were frantic trying to install their new playbook and they were also trying to evaluate players and just find enough players to field a team. They actually sounded pretty terrified about the product that they were gonna put on the field. I did not have high hopes going into last season and actually think that they overperformed. This year is the complete opposite. The coaches all rave about how well everyone knows the playbook, how hard they have all been working and how much competition there is at every position. Holz says that the fact that they start the year against ND has given the team extra enthusiasm throughout both Spring and Fall camps. They know they don't have any cupcake tune up games. I expect the team to be much better this year. Also, BJ apparently has really grasped the offense in his second year and has had a good fall camp.
I won't be surprised at all if USF beats ND in week one. I actually kind of expect it. Also, Skip Holtz is a former ND player and coach and is very excited about this game. I guarantee the team will be ready. I think USF will pull this game out, otherwise it will at least be close.
August 19th, 2011 at 9:54 PM ^
very good info, appreciate the insight.
August 19th, 2011 at 9:58 PM ^
Based on what you are saying, I may have to find the time to tune in for this one. The first game of the season is not the same as the others - odd stuff happens. If ND has those "back to school" problems that the NFL teams are having, you never know what USF might do.
Thanks for the analysis . . .
August 19th, 2011 at 10:00 PM ^
Daniels was supposed to have had a hamstring issue last week, but I hadn't heard anything since then. Rudolph had a "minor hamstring" last year as well which ended up being him tearing it off the bone. Was Daniels' issue really an issue. are you guys expecting him to start week 1 still?
I expect ND to win but it will be a decent game. Whenever a big east team opens with ND they always seem to have a good season. If ND does win a close game, it will make ND overated and then when USF begins to win, the win will be discredited because they're in the big east. So either way ND will still lose if they win the game, no one needs to worry about that.
Miami, USF and UM those are some similar QBs to defend.
August 19th, 2011 at 10:15 PM ^
Yeah, Daniels is fine. He sat out a couple days and then fully participated in the last 4 practices. Holtz said that they will give him light work for the next week or two because you never know when a hamstring is fully healed, but as of right now he is expected to play and be 100% by the start of the season.
August 19th, 2011 at 10:17 PM ^
Thanks, thats what I figured since it hadn't made it to ESPN or anything.
August 19th, 2011 at 10:11 PM ^
I'm also a former USF undergrad and I have to agree with this post. I really expect BJ Daniels to bounce back after a rough sophomore campaign. Their defense is going to be elite (by Big East standards) and their offense could be above average with a year and a half of work into the new scheme.
August 20th, 2011 at 12:32 AM ^
I love to see them fail. An 0-2 start for them would give me much joy. It's great to see the midwest talent in 2012, but I miss the FL connection. Let's see ND beat a D with speed. Then let's see them defend Denard. I don't think they can do either. 0-2 for ND...pls make it happen.
August 20th, 2011 at 3:43 PM ^
"It is impossible to run to the outside against them."
Really? So Oregon wouldn't be able to run outside on USF? Alabama and Trent Richardson? How about the Kansas City Chiefs?
No one doubts that USF has great athletes on D. Hence Selvie, Pierre-Paul, etc. all being relatively high draft picks
But the two best defense players on that team last year were Mcclain at DT and J. Williams at LB, both all-big east and high draft picks.
I don't see how losing those guys plus 3-4 other major contributors will make the defense better this year. There are no standout DTs or CBs on the team. Not convinced with the safties, and both DEs are pure pash rusher types.
It's certainly possible that guys like Giddens could be the second coming of Pierre Paul and the defense is fantastic again. But I think they are going to take a step back.
ND's offense is bigger and more athletic then the average Big East team - or last year's awful Clemson offense (86th in country in scoring... including putting up 58 on Presbyterian). This game just doesn't match up well for USF.
August 20th, 2011 at 8:08 PM ^
The Kansas City Chiefs? What the hell are you talking about?
The USF linebackers can get sideline to sideline as well as almost any group in the country. If there is one thing USF has, it's speed at linebacker. Plus, they have fast defensive ends and hard hitting, athletic safeties. No, you are not going to run to the outside agaisnt them, which is why West Virginia had less than 2 1/2 yards per carry against them last year. If you want to run the football against USF, you have to go north and south.
You are putting way too much stock into returning starters. Yes, they lost Williams, who had a lot of speed and was a major contributor, but when their other linebackers are going from Fr to So. and So to Jr., plus are going into their second year under a new coordinator, I expect that unit to get better. It's called having depth.
In the secondary, they lost one good cover corner, who had only 1 int last year. The rest of their 2 deep is returning at both Safety and Cornerback. The added experience at every other position in the secondary will make up for the loss of one player (Raymond), who was a former walk-on and got drafted in the 6th or 7th round. The other CB, Washington, started last year, and Webster, who is replacing Raymond, played quite a bit.
Yes, they will have to replace McClain, which will be tough, but that is still just one position. They still have a stable of defensive ends and Giddens should be better this year, if he stays healthy, than either of their starting ends last year.
If you don't know how coaching and experience can help a team get better, especially when they were adjusting to a new coordinator last year, then I can't help you.
I guess the best comparison I can make is to Michigan. After the 2011 season, Michigan loses Woolfolk (equivalent to Mistral Raymond?), they will lose Martin (equivalent to McClain?), and they will lose RVB (equivalent to Bedford?). Are you telling me that Michigan's Defense will necessarily be better in 2011 than it will be in 2012 because of those losses? Despite an extra year of coaching will Mattison? USF still has a very young defense. Losing a few players will not outweigh the jump that their Fr, So, and Jrs make.
August 20th, 2011 at 8:11 PM ^
Hey, I'm not a fan of either team, but my family is all Pitt fans so I watch a lot of big east. I can see you're excited about the direction USF is going, and USF will be good this year, just not as good as Notre Dame.
It's great that Skip Holtz is now in the second year of installing his scheme... but so is Brian Kelly. Both teams should make a "jump," but ND's jump is going to be bigger because they have more talent and more depth than USF across the board.
Ask Phil Steele or any good prognisticator - two of the best ways to project teams preseason are 1) returning starters (especially on the lines and QB) and 2) close losses versus close wins and final SOS for the previous year.
ND returns 4/5 starters on its O line and 3/3 on the D line - USF returns 2 O line starters and 1 D lineman. Comparing the lines, USF just doesn't have the depth, experience and size to keep up with ND's lines. I'm being as objective as I can. If you disagree, that's fine, we'll just see how the game plays out.
And as far as USF making a "jump" this year - USF still has a ways to go. They just weren't as good as you think last year. They beat 2 FBS teams with winning records - Louisville (finished 7-6, in overtime) and Miami (7-6, in overtime). ND throttled Miami and beat Pitt easily.
Also, if you want to talk about how impossible it is to run on USF (running outside versus inside doesn't matter... a yard is a yard), I wouldn't point to WVU, and not because USF lost that game 20-6 - because WVU had a hard time running on anyone last year. They were 50th in rushing YPG and avg'd just 3.9 YPC.
As far as UM's 2012 defense... They should be better, obviously losing Martin, RVB and Woolfork will have a significant impact on whether or not that is the case. There's a reason why teams that return their stars, lineman and QBs tend to do really well.
August 20th, 2011 at 8:44 PM ^
I'm certainly not overestimating how good USF was last year. But their defense was very good. There is no doubt about that. USF is still an up and coming program. Their recruiting classes have gotten better every year. After the 2009 season, from their starting defense, they lost: Pierre-Paul (1st Rd pick), Nate Allen (2nd Rd. pick, 37 overall), Jerome Murphy (3rd Rd. pick), George Selvie (7th Rd pick) and Kion WIlson (undrafted free agent signed with the Chargers, still on team). Yet, in 2010, their defense was even better than the 2009 defense. Their losses this year were not nearly as significant. The defense has a lot of depth and the young players coming up, at least defensively, have been continuously better than the players before them. This year will be no exception.
The losses on the defense were minimal. Their defense should be better this year than it was last year just off of depth and experience.
Offensively, they were atrocious last year. B.J. Daniels was lost. Their WR core was labeled "the land of the misfit toys" by Skip Holtz because of injuries; they were all players that were forced to convert from other positions, outside of Bogan. This year, the team is healthy, more experienced, and deeper than they were last year on offense. I know that their offense has a long ways to go to be good, but they can't help but to be improved over last year. The losses on the offensive line are something that will have to be overcome, but the coaches are much more comfortable with the current group than the previous group, and therefore, so am I.
Just watch this interview with Holtz from last year, he basically says that they were going to suck on offense and there was nothing that they could do about it. This was a week before the start of the season. Sorry, I don't know how to embed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHMPwfo-508
This year, the tone is much different. The coaches are confident and excited about the start of the season. I'm just saying, you have to look at more than what the team looks like on paper. There are a lot of other factors.
I also understand that ND will be better this year than they were before. They will be a tough opponent. I still think that USF will be ready. They should be much more fired up for this game than ND will be, especially with their coach's ND history. We'll see what happens.
August 19th, 2011 at 9:54 PM ^
here's the line right now:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
ND -10-11 pts at the moment. i think it'll be useful/interesting just because ND's offense was in relative turmoil most of last year. getting a clear-ish picture of what they can specifically do, even if it's just their base stuff, i think would be valuable.
August 19th, 2011 at 10:12 PM ^
August 19th, 2011 at 10:14 PM ^
I'm not understanding the hate over OT. This is very on topic.
August 19th, 2011 at 11:10 PM ^
ND beats USF relatively easily and comes into Ann Arbor thinking they're the shit. Favored in our house with an allegedly more talented team in the second year of the second coming's era - we'll have them right where we want them.
August 20th, 2011 at 7:11 AM ^
Like 2006? Oh man that game was awesome
August 20th, 2011 at 7:11 AM ^
Like 2006? Oh man that game was awesome
August 20th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^
i would much rather notre dame win and feel confident then lose a close one and come to ann arbor angry.
August 20th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^
i would much rather notre dame win and feel confident then lose a close one and come to ann arbor angry.
August 20th, 2011 at 10:27 AM ^
sorry about the double post...also, *than. i go to michigan i swear
August 20th, 2011 at 9:41 AM ^
really bad for ND. I think they will beat USF and give Michigan a ton of trouble passing the ball around to their talented wr's and te's... However, if ND loses to USF it could be an 0-3 start to the season pretty easily. They have UM and MSU right after and that's not an easy gauntlet to run to start a season. If they start 3-0 it could be BCS bowl time for the Irish.
Michigan's first four games will also tell us a ton about our team. I think the San Diego State game is a scary one, and the hype for the night game will be huge! Can we just fast forward to football, please? I can't wait to see it all unfold.
Hey, Domers... is it Reece or Crist this year? I think Reece is less talented, but more cerebral and will make less mistakes. Crist is on fire or horrible and not much in between IMO.
August 20th, 2011 at 9:55 AM ^
If ND goes 3-0 a BCS game becomes very achievable, I think that is a lot of peoples' barometer early in the season.
The starting QB will be announced Tuesday. Crist played like a first year QB, being late on his passes was my biggest complaint, he needed to trust his receivers more, tried to play to not make a mistake. There was a lot of pressure on him though, he was the only option ND had for the majority of the season and he knew the season's success fell on his shoulders. I think it will be Crist in week 1, but I just want 1 guy to be the clear starter. Previous QB competitions didn't breed a cohesive offense, the sooner they can move on the beter.
August 20th, 2011 at 10:08 AM ^
Well, I am taking USF plus those points. Book It.
But, I always take Skip Holtz when he's an und
erdog. Usually works out in my favor, so we shall see in a couple of weeks
August 20th, 2011 at 12:45 PM ^
I follow USF more than any other team outside of Michigan and I can tell you that ND will be in for fight. The Bulls were plagued by injuries at receiver last season which caused their passing game to really struggle. This year they return A.J Love and Sterling Griffin which will help them immensely. Also, playmaking corner Terrence Mitchell has been converted to wideout and if he can find room to run look out because he's a burner.
Defensively, they will be stout once again. The biggest question mark for them will be stopping the run because they lost Terrell McClain on the interior who was drafted in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. Their linebackers are going to cause big problems for the Irish. Both Sam Barrington and DeDe Lattimore look like future NFL guys and were the leading tacklers for the team last year out of all the guys that return. Both corners were starting at some points last year and both safeties return as well.
This will be a great opening week matchup folks, and I would not be the least bit surprised if ND goes into the night game with an 0-1 record.
August 20th, 2011 at 7:54 PM ^