MSU D '13 v UM D '15
We all know UM has some big games ahead (2 in particular) and needs to win these to track MSU 2013 but there are a lot of similarities of these teams with breaking in new QBs, finding a rb, low risk offense, stellar defense leading the way, a jump from the OL from prior year, etc.
I forgot if it was Seth or Brian but last week they showed the ranking of opposing offenses that MSU '13 and UM '15 have faced since there is some hate going on out in the internets, in terms of offenses UM has had to face. Well thus far not only has UM faced equitable offenses on average (69.0) to MSU thru 6 games in 2013 (70.2)*, UM also currently has a tougher full game schedule of offenses thru 12 games than MSU did in 13, so no apologies are needed.
Below is the chart of each team's 12 opponents offenses via S&P+ rank. Below that I put the S&P+ rank of UM and MSU's D and O those respective years. UM has the better offense thus far as well even if worse QB play.
Again we still have 3 competent offenses to get thru (assuming Indiana gets their players back) and those games must be won but there are striking similarities.
| UM '15 | MSU '13 | ||
| UT | 23 | 120 | WMU |
| OSU | 87 | 118 | USF |
| UNLV | 101 | YSU (fcs) | |
| BYU | 36 | 27 | ND |
| MD | 74 | 70 | IA |
| NW | 93 | 16 | IN |
| MSU | 37 | 115 | PD |
| MN | 85 | 37 | IL |
| RUT | 83 | 44 | UM |
| IN | 15 | 46 | NEB |
| PSU | 61 | 52 | NW |
| OSU | 42 | 77 | MN |
| Ave | 61.4 | 65.6 | Ave |
| UM '15 D | 1 | 2 | MSU '13 D |
| UM '15 O | 46 | 64 | MSU '13 O |
*I excluded the FCS team
October 12th, 2015 at 3:47 PM ^
Also Jake needs to be better as Cook improved as the year goes by. Maybe Jake started that Saturday. He is the X variable.
| Cmp | Att | % | Yds | |
| Cook '13 | 223 | 380 | 58.7% | 2755 |
| Jake '15 | 212 | 342 | 62.0% | 2270 |
| (projected) | ||||
| Cook '13 | Ave | TD | INT | |
| Jake '15 | 7.3 | 22 | 6 | |
| (projected) | 6.6 | 10 | 12 |
....while running game is comparable to MSU 13....
| Carries | Yds | Ave | |
| MSU '13 | 569 | 2433 | 4.3 |
| UM '15 | 506 | 2416 | 4.8 |
| (projected) |
October 12th, 2015 at 3:47 PM ^
So you're saying we are on our way to a BIG championship? If so, I like what you're saying.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^
The only variable that is wildly different right now is Jake's lack of TDs and amount of INTs.
A big variable for sure. The teams otherwise are quite equitable.
Defense wins champions, eh?
October 12th, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^
I think our defense is better than that one and our offense is worse. The team is getting much better every game. We have the coaching level of any team in America including Alabama. This will be very fun to watch in the upcoming years as we amass more talent.
October 12th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^
By the end of the season it was pretty good.
That's the same trajectory we are on.
October 12th, 2015 at 3:59 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 12th, 2015 at 5:11 PM ^
For quoting the wittiest guy I know
October 12th, 2015 at 4:01 PM ^
A quick glance at the S&P+ shows that the defence won't be facing any hard tests other than Indiana the rest of the way. You could even expect a touchdown or less in 3 of the last five games if progression continues as anticipated.
October 12th, 2015 at 4:07 PM ^
I know TDs thrown for a QB is usually a very important stat, but I wonder how well it translates to our analysis of Rudock, as it seems that our offensive playcalling seems to heavily prefer to run the ball in for a TD rather than pass in red zone situations (nothing wrong with that IMO). I mean Rudock himself has at least 3 rushing TDs as far as my memory serves. Doesn't mean Rudock isn't doing his job as far as moving the offense down the field. Edit: Also, some quick googling shows we're ranked #14 in the country in red zone efficiency, so maybe the strategy of running it there is a good one.
And as far as INTs too, if you acknowledge the Utah game as an outlier (possibly chemistry issues with Perry), you're looking at 3 interceptions in 5 games, putting him at 7.2 INTs/12 games, which are fairly close to Cook's numbers.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 12th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^
Valenti currently shitting pants on WDFN.
Says UM win over NW was most impressive win of year in CFB.
Says Harbaugh scary ...totally misjudged Harbaugh. Said thought this would not happen for 3 yrs.
Still thinks MSU wins and now MSU and UM have equal head coaches . ;) And MSU has arguably the best QB in America.
Says MSU has the most self loathing fanbase in the country.
So he got 3 out of 4 right. :)
October 12th, 2015 at 4:29 PM ^
Valenti is a die-hard State fan but I've always found him pretty reasonable in his analysis, knowing that it will always skew towards his MSU loyalty.
Realistically MSU will be the best team we've played since Utah and I'll bet they play inspired football against us. I just hope that our defense can shutdown the passing game and the DL spends all afternoon in MSU's backfield getting some revenge for Gardner. With their injuries and our defense I don't see them scoring more than 10 points on offense. The question is can we get a run game going, Rutgers average 6.6 YPC on 26 carries (took out sacks) so we have to be able to do something similar right?
I think if we score 20 points we will win this game.
October 12th, 2015 at 4:34 PM ^
Bank it. CANNOT wait for post game handshake
October 12th, 2015 at 4:38 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^
He is a fucking loud mouth tool.
October 12th, 2015 at 9:08 PM ^
I almost hate saying this because I sound like a homer, but I think Narduzzi was a big part of MSU's success and the step back the D has taken this year is pointing that direction. Wouldn't surprise me at all if MSU tapers off from nationally elite to just very good (8-9 wins every year) in the next 2 or 3 years
October 12th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
If their O-line can't hold up against our defense, this may get ugly. I just don't trust yet that we can exploit their greatest weakness (secondary).
October 12th, 2015 at 5:09 PM ^
They didn't do so well defending the run either.
The difference is that, against us, they are likely to stack the box and dare us to beat them with something else. In past years I'd throw my hands up in the air and say "oh well" to that. But unlike our last staff, THIS staff will be prepared for that eventuality.
...and unlike the 2012-14 MSU defense, this iteration doesn't have an amazing secondary to rely on to take care of everything else.
October 12th, 2015 at 5:33 PM ^
October 12th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^
I don't think we'll expose their secondary in the traditional sense (with WRs over the top) but Harbaugh will find ways to get people freaking out on play action and there will be TEs running amok. I don't think Rudock is burning anyone 10+ yards downfield Saturday or any day the rest of the season.
October 12th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^
MSU fanbase thinks we just have 1 TE. Meanwhile we have been rotating weekly passes thru multiple TEs. I would not be surprised to see 3 TEs have good games vs MSU as they will put their best cover LB on Butt and then our secret weapons like AJ Williams will have a good time.
October 12th, 2015 at 9:28 PM ^
Agreed. I think there will be a few times where MSU's rush to shut down the run will result in Butt, Williams, or Hill being 'blitheringly wide open' as the fearless leader would say
October 12th, 2015 at 7:52 PM ^
SBNation drew a comparison to 2011 Alabama which is pretty high praise. Caveat: it's only been half a season, and this defense will probably end up being judged on the MSU & OSU games in the end. But quite a start indeed.
Heismen of the Week: Michigan's defense
Maybe the Heisman should be melted down into a bunch of charm bracelets and given to Michigan's entire defense. What has been more outstanding in college football this year?
The Wolverines opened and shut the book (nerd joke) on Northwestern's undefeated season on Saturday, and did it early. Jourdan Lewis pick-sixing the Wildcats in the second quarter felt like the killshot. He outscored the Wildcats, because they didn't score any points, and neither did the last two teams Michigan played. Since Jake Rudock threw a pick-six of his own in the fourth quarter at Utah, Michigan has allowed 14 points over its last five games. Throw out that TD, which wasn't the defense's fault, and Michigan's defense has only given up 31 points all year.
36 teams are giving up that many points on average this season.
The Wolverines also basically don't allow long drives, and the three possessions covering 50 or more yards they have conceded since that game at Utah are essentially the only flaws they've shown. Oh, and the long drives Oregon State and UNLV put together against Michigan both hinged on brilliant, singular pass plays, while the one Northwestern mustered in the first quarter on Saturday stalled before it even got to the red zone.
2011 Alabama's potentially greatest-in-modern-college-football-history defense allowed 3.32 yards per play and 8.2 points per game. 2015 Michigan, through half a season, is allowing 3.10 yards per play and 7.6 points per game.
The last and only time a Heisman went to a defender, it went to a Michigan Man. This year, just give it to all of 'em.
October 12th, 2015 at 8:14 PM ^
Fascinating stuff. Thx.
I thought LSU's D that one year LSU and Bama played in the NC game was also ridiculous. That may have been 2011 as well.
The only real offenses left on the schedule are Indiana, MSU and OSU with 3 subpar offenses outside that. So if MSU is held to say 14-17 pts this really could be a historic year.
October 12th, 2015 at 9:45 PM ^
I think the regular season game was won by LSU 9-6 in OT with no TDs scored. Alabama shut LSU out in the rematch in the BCS Champ Game.