Michigan Moves Up to #2 in the Massey Composite Rankings
https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
Looks the computers like us
Top 11
1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Alabama
4 Cincinnatti
5 Ohio State
6 Iowa
7 Oklahoma
8 Notre Dame
9 Wake Forest
10 Mississippi
11 Michigan State
October 26th, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
Be wary of those machines
October 26th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
This is how they get you - first they tell you your football team is really, really good and next thing you know Skynet is ordering nuclear strikes and sending terminators back in time to murder future resistance leaders. Seen it a million times.
October 26th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
Just get the machine to play tic-tac-toe and everything will be okay.
October 26th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
But you need a WOPR computer for that to work.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:20 PM ^
North Central Positronics is coming for you. All things serve the beam.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:53 PM ^
Don't turn the ball over. Don't have negative plays. Have an elite defense. Have an elite running game. Analytics love this. Recent history does not. If Georgia can win with this type of team, then we might have a plausible blueprint. If Georgia gets waxed by OSU, Alabama, or Oklahoma, we should know that no matter how elite your defense is or how sound your offense is, you need an elite QB leading the way.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
BEAT MSU!!!
Am I doing this correctly...?
October 26th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
Kind of, needs more DISRESPEKT!
Beat Staee!!!
October 26th, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
They've gotta be kidding. Since they switched DCs, OSU has been beating its opponents by over 40 points a game for the past month. Michigan hasn't scored 40 points in a game in that span.
This team is far outperforming its preseason expectations, but an NFL team it is not.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
Akron
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana
They have only played 1 ranked team all year and they lost at home.
While they are obviously good, their level of competition is lacking. With the unevenness of cfb though, they may not play a team with equivalent talent until the playoff.
I think Penn State plays a very competitive game this week, for most of the game anyway. I'd be more shocked if they beat PSU by 40 than if PSU won.
Nebraska hosts them the following week...they will probably get smoked.
Purdue get smoked, but let's see if they throw the ball on them.
MSU might be able to hit enough explosive plays to keep it within the spread.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:37 AM ^
You can't call out OSU's SOS and not point out that ours has been just as soft. We beat Rutgers 20-10 at home and OSU absolutely throttled them. We really haven't throttled anyone except NIU. The others have been closer at half and then we opened it up in the 2nd half
With a banged up Sean Clifford, the PSU game won't be close. It'll probably be something like 42-7
October 26th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
. . . at the half, maybe. Half a Clifford is a problem for them, but losing Mustipher was immeasurably worse. Illinois paved them once he went out, and he's gone for the season.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^
Not to be that guy but Mustipher did not play a down in Illinois game.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
"I think Penn State plays a very competitive game this week, for most of the game anyway. I'd be more shocked if they beat PSU by 40 than if PSU won."
Maybe PSU could be competitive at home, but the game is in Columbus. It'll be effectively over before the end of the first half. The Buckeyes are going to hang at least 50 on the Nits.
October 26th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
Yes, those teams are horrible but Rutgers and IU defenses have proven to be somewhat functional (see Rutgers shutting Michigan out in the second half, IU limiting Sparty to 13 points on offense), and OSU just laid waste to them.
I do feel like their defense hasn't really been tested in that span. Minnesota and Oregon both moved the ball on them and good teams probably still can.
It looks like PSU is not a good team right now though. I would be surprised if PSU keeps it within 30 given the state of their team right now.
MSU might be able to keep it within 20. Honestly, Nebraska has a better chance of making it a game than MSU, IMO.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
And this is why the fancy stats exist. Michigan runs the ball more frequently than OSU, so they play shorter games so they won’t put as many points on the board. These stats measure efficiency, and M’s offense has been pretty efficient.
I’ll add these caveats:
-OSU’s offense is still rated better than Michigan’s
-Generally these stats measure a full season and OSU does appear to have improved from their early season issues.
-I don’t think we’re the second best team in the country
I’m more pointing out the tempo free aspect of the stats you presented.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
What do computers know, they can't see football let alone hear football!
October 26th, 2021 at 11:08 AM ^
Clap, clap, clap.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
But they can feel all the feels. So there's that.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Interesting. Beat MSU. Have some nice things.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^
That's cute and all, but this is not a top 5 team and we all know it. Not with our current qb situation we're not.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
Might be a top 5 team at the end of the season, but not until we vanquish Sparty, PSU and Bucktards.
Best description of ‘21 M is they are playing Tressel-ball (except minus the cheating part). Not my analogy, got it from an M podcast (Seth?). Very good D, minimal mistake O. Opportunistic. M has a chance to win out, but there’s not likely to be any blowouts. We could still end up 9-3, but hoping for/expecting not less than 10-2.
Cade is not a dominating QB, but he’s doing enough to move the ball, even in bad field position, to at least let us flip the field. Minimal mistakes. Great attitude. And his receivers have not given Cade much help on long balls. Sainristil is obviously a favorite, but his hesitations/misjudging the flight of Cade’s long ball has cost at least two very big plays which would dramatically change Cade’s public perception and stats.
Cade gives us a good chance in every game, and JJ is the “push button in case of emergency.”
I’m thankful we have two at least very good options, that we’re 7-0, and optimistic.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
I agree with every single thing you said.
I don't think it's emphasized enough how fundamental it is to our success that Cade is safe with the ball, and how this supplements the special teams in creating field position advantages that win games over the course of 4 quarters instead of explosive bursts.
I've never played quarterback and I'm no quarterbacks coach, but his passes seem less inaccurate than they are safe. Our receivers aren't winning 50/50 balls, and more often than not are on the defense when they're asked to come up with one.
To my eye, receivers just aren't getting enough separation -- whether it's because they're not executing routes or simply the lack of raw athleticism at those positions -- and the coordinators aren't creating enough mismatches to get them sufficiently open either, so it's left to Cade to effectively "throw them open" by putting a ball somewhere that only a receiver can make a play on it. Cade is 2nd in the country with 1 INT, and he's still completing 63% of these for 7.6 yards/att.
I'll take that if the alternative is forcing a throw unnecessarily into coverage, since we still need to mix enough passes into the playcalling to keep the defense honest.
With all that said... a key lever to opening up some of those receivers is a credible threat that the quarterback will just hoof it himself for a gain after all his checkdowns. That threat effectively doesn't exist with McNamara.
This is the trade-off with JJ McCarthy, and the short bits of exposure that he's been given. Defenses have to account for his mobility, and that naturally generates some opportunities for his receivers. Thus far, though, he still makes some dangerous decisions that his athleticism has covered for in his brief stints on the field.
Ultimately, I think that's where we sit on the quarterback situation and what they're working on with him.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
I keep hearing this, but are you saying that on a neutral field we wouldn't beat either Cincinnati or Oklahoma? I'd take that bet.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
I feel confident we would beat Cincy, but Oklahoma because of their passing prowess could cause us some big problems.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
Oklahoma is a terrible matchup for us, they win that game. I feel like Cincy is about at the level of a Tressel OSU team, they would beat us. I am not advocating bpone, just trying to keep it real. We are a legit top 10 team, just not top 5. If we go 11-1 then I will stand corrected.
Also, then you guys must think we are going to pound MSU right? If we are better than Cincy and Oklahoma we should beat MSU soundly.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^
Have to disagree. MSU could be 1-6 but that game is never a gimme let alone a beat down. Rivalry games are different. You wouldn't feel this way if Wisconsin has beaten ND. Crap happens.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:25 PM ^
In a normal year this may not be a top 5 team, but this year it could be. Take a look at the current top 10.
- Georgia: So far, so good.
- Cincinnati: Are they measurably better than Michigan?
- Oklahoma: Dogfights all season, needed a double-digit comeback to beat KANSAS.
- OSU and Alabama: Certainly pass the eye test but already have a loss each.
- Oregon: One great win, some shaky wins.
- MSU: We will find out.
- Iowa: Beat PSU only because of Clifford's injury, lost uncompetitively to Purdue.
- Ole Miss: Powerful offense, not so much on defense.
Lots of flawed teams on that list. Seems to me that it's kind of a crapshoot and that two of the best three teams have already lost a game. So who knows.
October 26th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
If we beat MSU, I'll happily say we are a top-5 team. The acid test for this team will be keeping their explosive offense in check. Definitely a big step up from Nebraska in that regard.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:02 PM ^
I get that this is an argument about semantics, but we literally are a top 5 team based on this ranking system, so we don't "all know it".
If you are saying aren't one of the five best teams in college football at the moment, then I'm sure some would agree. However, I find it annoying when people make statements like this or complain about the rankings and don't list the teams that they would place above Michigan.
My current top 5 would be: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Alabama 4. Cincinnati 5. Oklahoma
I would have Michigan 6th at the moment. Depending on the day, they may lose to some teams below them, but I also think they'd have a decent shot to beat Cincinnati and Oklahoma. So, I could easily see people putting them in the top 5 - 23 AP voters had them somewhere in the 3-5 range. I don't think we beat any of my top three, but two of them have already lost so it's not impossible. Either way, it's a fun year and the team is exceeding expectations. If we win this weekend, we probably will be a top 5 team in one or both major polls regardless of the qb situation. I don't understand the whining and hand-wringing from so many in our fan base when this year is going really, really well. Things don't have to be perfect to be enjoyable. We'll lose at some point, but the players are playing their asses off and the coaches are doing a heck of a job. It's ok to enjoy and acknowledge that.
It's also ok to discuss weaknesses, but every topic on this board has several people whining about the "current qb situation". It's been said. Everyone that reads this blog and message board has heard it. We get it. We have no impact on who the coaches put in the game, so belaboring the point is useless. I promise it doesn't make you look insightful. Some topics can be discussed without always bringing it back to the fact you're upset that JJ isn't starting.
I understand losing your mind during the heat of a game, but the negativity surrounding a 7-0 team (preseason win total was 7.5 btw) throughout the week is so fucking tiresome. What HAIL-YEA said was very tame/mild - this was apparently my limit after trying to read some of the message board today.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Who is your top 5? Don't tell me OK or Cincinnati. There are three. I give you that. After that, it is anyone's guess regardless of the QB situation at Michigan.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
Beat Staeee!
October 26th, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
Assuming we lose to OSU and don't make the playoffs who would you like to play? Oregon in the Rose? Or would the conference give that to the west champ? A team like Cincy, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, or ND?
October 26th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^
Not ready to assume we lose to OSU. I really don't give a shit who we play in the bowl. We can play Akron in a Pizza bowl. I might feel differently in December two weeks after OSU game. I generally don't say stuff like this, but I feel like I have read 100s of comments that assumes we lose to OSU. I need some hope dammit. I am clinging on to it until The Game. Don't mean to take it out on you. +1 to you to show my goodwill.
October 26th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
This computer algorithm likes us at no. 2, Sagarin likes us at 5. That’s based upon games played this year to date. Our schedule strength on Sagarin is 42nd, OSU is 51st in schedule strength and ranked 3rd. Note that MSU is ranked 27th, with a schedule strength of 56th. I’ve found that the betting lines are usually pretty damn close to Sagarin’s prediction numbers, so that’s a point in his favor in my book.
Go Blue!
October 26th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
Right now, the polls are useless. It's all about teams getting better and better as this season progresses. Get back to me with these polls after the regular season ends. It's about "clicks' right now.
Beat MSU !
October 26th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
Iowa at #6? Come on.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
Iowa in front of Sparty, lulz
October 26th, 2021 at 9:51 PM ^
Iowa ahead of Oklahoma, worse.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
I find it more egregious to have Oklahoma as high as 7 than to have Michigan at 2. If Oklahoma were properly slotted at 15 or so, I would have more respect for this model.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
It's not a model but a composite average of 60+ different computer and human polls. Michigan has a high of 1 and low of 15.
October 26th, 2021 at 12:38 PM ^
Rat poison
October 26th, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^
Warfarin
October 26th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
I know everyone loves the CFP, but I miss the days of waiting for the AP and Coaches polls to come out to see where Michigan (or whoever you root for) was ranked. There was the hope of going undefeated and winning the national championship, but even if you lost there was the whole "eye test" and respect of where people thought you should be ranked. ...and it mattered for the bowl games. I loved New Year's day and applying the transitive property of football wins to determine which conference was the best and rationalizing why Michigan was better than whatever other team(s).
Now you're either in the CFP or you're not. You're either National Champion or you're not. The bowl games don't matter and the top players skip them. Can you imagine skipping the Rose Bowl?
College football is a cheap imitation of what it once was. Get off my lawn!
October 26th, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
If computers had eyes, they might not be quite so sanguine about us.
October 26th, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
It's amazing how much people want to yell and complain about computers for just using the data that they have.
It's fine if you don't like or want to disagree with what the computers say, but at least understand why the computer is giving out the results it does before bitching about how you don't like it or know more.
October 26th, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^
Complaining about advanced stats is not just endemic to our community. It gets pretty tiresome to hear “Team X is ranked #? That negates this whole thing!!!” Every. Single. Time.
That being said, Clemson is in the top 5 of SP+ and that negates the whole thing.