Michigan Monday: Hail to the Moral Victors
https://theozone.net/2019/10/michigan-monday-hail-moral-victors/
A pretty good read, but not one of Gerdeman's best efforts. Missing the much of the usual wit and snark I would say.
Interesting stat: "Michigan rushed for 141 yards on 41 attempts (3.4 ypc)... Oddly, or evenly, the 41 attempts for 141 yards is exactly what this offense managed against Rutgers as well. Does that mean things are improving? Maybe."
A notable pattern on offense this entire season: "...they’re also not getting much help from the play calling.
For instance, Michigan — down 7-0 late in the first quarter — had a third-and-3 at the Penn State 36-yard line. They had driven from their own 14-yard line and were moving the ball pretty well. So what did they do on third-and-3? They had Shea Patterson line up under the left guard and the center snapped the ball to Charbonnet at tailback for no gain.
Patterson carried out his fake, and like a Woody Allen theatrical release, nobody went to see it. Because Penn State has played football before, they knew where the ball was and who the center was and not a single defender bought whatever it was that Michigan was trying to sell."
And the continued pattern on defense: "The Wolverines have allowed 11 plays of 30 yards or more this season, compared to Ohio State’s four. The good news for Michigan is that’s about right at their pace from last season."
And Decision Making on Special Teams: "Think about it, rather than go for it on fourth-and-6 — and rather than punting it — Harbaugh decided to attempt a field goal that was never going to be made. Or at the very least, only get made one out of 10 chances. How many times are they going to pick up a fourth-and-6 out of 10 tries? Five?"
Closing: "Michigan the team is playing better, but Michigan the program still isn’t in a place where it can overcome a couple of mistakes or a couple of poor coaching decisions against teams with as much talent as they have."
October 22nd, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
11 plays of 30 yards or more is a big problem given our opponents so far.
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
It's a huge problem. 3rd and 22 from Iowa's 8 yard line, press coverage with no safety help. Basically all of the first half at PSU (and the last TD pass). Don Brown prefers this style of defense without regard to opposition, flow of the game, etc.
It's why he needs to recognize when a more conservative defense is the best defense.
One of the common themes it seems in teams beating opponents with equal or more talent is forcing field goals, a "bend but don't break" type of defense. Offensive advantages are huge when you're 80 yards from the end zone. But when you're inside the 20, the confined space helps negate them.
How many field goal attempts did Michigan force at Wisconsin? At Penn State? Against Ohio State?
Last 4 losses:
OSU: 2 field goals, 8 touchdowns
Florida: 2 field goals, 5 touchdowns
Wisconsin: 1 field goal, 5 touchdowns
Penn State: 0 field goals, 4 touchdowns
Total: 5 field goals, 22 touchdowns
Not good enough.
October 22nd, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^
I remember when Jimmy Johnson ran the bend but don't break offense in Philly. Teams would drive down the field easy enough but once in the redzone they were stuffed.
You would think with Don Browns scheme we would hold more teams to field goals, but it seems once in the redzone they are almost assured to score a TD
October 22nd, 2019 at 4:47 PM ^
It's Don Brown's break-dont-bend defensive philosophy. I don't get it, but he employs it whether it's 3rd&1 or 3rd&25. We're always a picked-up-blitz from TD, from anywhere on the field.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
eh, i'm getting sick of Michigan Monday.
I do look forward to reading one after a UM win over OSU, though. That would be a nice read.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
He doesn't do one after the last game. It would never happen.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
I'm looking forward to the UFR after beating OSU.
After we all sober up in a month or two.
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
In the event of an OSU win.............
October 22nd, 2019 at 8:42 PM ^
Love your name, hadn’t seen it before!
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
Yes, I'm a fan of reading fiction as well.
October 22nd, 2019 at 2:01 PM ^
and I don't care if he "doesn't do that one" - he would owe us one.
just one damn win, come on, fate.
my hope this year: OSU is undefeated, has title sewn up. Huge favorites. Michigan has just the 2 losses. And then, magic happens.
Alas, it seems like it will need a miracle.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
Lol he must be reading this board.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
"A pretty good read, but not one of Gerdeman's best efforts. Missing the much of the usual wit and snark I would say."
Well for what it lacked in the usual wit and snark department it sure made up for it in the deadly fucking accurate department.
- No help with play calling? Check
- Busting big plays against our defense? Check
- Poor special teams decision making? Check
- Team/Program unable to overcome adversity? Double check
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^
The play-calling was noticeably better on Saturday, though. Maybe even very good? Michigan would have approached 500 yards of offense in a white-out night game against a very good defense if not for the phantom PI on Collins and an excessive number of dropped passes. Even discounting those "what'-ifs," Michigan finished with well over 400 yards and was one dropped pass away from 28 points. Bell catches that ball, what, 95 times out of 100? It happens.
But the point is that the playcalling was just fine.
Unable to overcome adversity? The team could have rolled over--see Wisconsin--when down 21-0 and instead should have tied it up at the end.
The issue wasn't overcoming adversity, but rather avoiding it in the first place. The hole was too deep.
The rest? Absolutely. The special teams decisions and big plays on defense were brutal.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:43 PM ^
Our play calling in the 2nd half was much better, but I wouldn't say it was very original in the 1st half at all. I don't understand why we seem so slow in the first half. We weren't fast in the 2nd half, but it looked like we made a little more effort to start the plays earlier in the clock. As far as points go, I'm not sure how many times 28 points will beat the top tier teams. That seems too low to beat most teams in bowl games.
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
We're talking about the playcalling, though, not points scored. It's not Gattis' fault that Bell dropped the pass (28 points) or that the refs almost certainly robbed Michigan of another 3 points (31 points) or 7 points (35 points) on the nonsense Collins PI.
I get it, the offense didn't do enough. But if we're talking about the Top 5 issues from Saturday, I think we're talking about, in no particular order:
- Broken/bad coverages;
- Special teams mistakes (fielding the kickoff to the 12, punting into the endzone from the 45, kicking a 58-yard FG with no chance of making it);
- Dropped passes;
- Conservative choices on 4th-and-short, which falls on Harbaugh;
- Making the wrong read on handoffs.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:43 PM ^
The play calling wasn't good till the second half really. It started out pretty bad. And I'd say we challenged the adversity, but we didn't overcome it. Overcoming adversity (at least in my mind) means you actually find a way to win the game. That's not saying we didn't end up doing quite well, but we didn't fully manage to overcome the challenge we faced.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
I'll give you that the play-calling was better but IMO it's still got a LONG way to go.
We still run a read option with QB who refuses, for whatever reason, to pull and we still refuse to throw the ball deep more than once a game. The stats were nice but those oddities coupled with plays like the one outlined in the post (the direct snap) keep me from giving it a good grade yet.
And as far as overcoming adversity dont you kinda have to WIN the game to claim overcoming it? Granted, this was no Wisconsin game where they simply laid down and died - they fought like Hell and if not for a most unexpected drop they would've come all the way back to tie the game up.
But at the end of the day unless you do actually win I dont know how you can say they "overcame" adversity. They didnt quit (that's for sure) but they didnt finish the job either.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
Michigan has been outscored 56-3 in the first quarter under Harbaugh vs ranked teams on the road. Adding in PSU (who ran out of time in the first quarter but did it early in 2nd) it would be 70-3. Don't think even Alabama can beat teams consistently if they spot teams points like this.
After 5 years when do we say...Houston we have a problem?
Jim Harbaugh does not get his guys up for road games vs ranked teams. 5 years of data is a lot of data. He needs to change his approach...I don't know WTF he's doing currently but it needs to change.
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^
Pep claimed that he liked to take one deep shot per quarter. How is it possible we hired an OC that only takes one per game?
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:09 PM ^
The quarterback has to see the open deep receivers and that seems to be an issue
October 22nd, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^
I skipped most of the first half. On one play I saw Patterson throw an out to DPJ and the ball actually came out of his hands before his receiver made his cut.
That's the first time I've noticed that with Patterson. He usually seems to only throw the ball after the final move in the route has been made.
October 23rd, 2019 at 2:22 AM ^
Good point. Everyone is blaming Gattis but we already know Shea struggles with indecisiveness. Hard to say who it's on really.
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:12 PM ^
Well, sure, there's a long way to go on offense. The offense is improving, and this week seemed like a big step forward. It's obviously not where we want or need it to be.
The offensive playcalling was still good enough to win a game on the road against a Top 10 team at night, though. Would be nice if there was a way to stop calling the plays where the WRs drop the ball of the refs erase points on a phantom penalty call. That's 10-14 lost points that you can't put on Gattis.
As for overcoming adversity equating to a win, we're just arguing semantics. Michigan's biggest comeback in its 100-year-whatever history was 21 points to a decent Minnesota team on the road. Doing the same against a Top 10 outfit on the road happens almost never. Michigan came within a dropped pass of making that a 50-50 game. That's good enough for me on the overcoming adversity front.
We were flat-out hoping for a miracle once the scoreboard was 21-0 and didn't get it.
October 22nd, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
Why is the “White Out in hostile territory” trotted out (no offense to the trotters)?
PSU is now at a modest .500 in this specific atmosphere.
October 23rd, 2019 at 12:45 AM ^
The losses were to Ohio State. They've done better than we have.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
Cool.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
"They sacked him twice. He hit Hamler for two touchdowns. This isn’t an area where batting .500 works out for the defense and it never will be.
A couple of weeks ago, Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said everything they do on defense, from installing plays to technique to design, is done to limit explosive plays. If they love a particular blitz, but it leaves them vulnerable to a big shot, they won’t put it in. What kind of results has that thought process brought to Columbus? Ohio State’s defense is ninth nationally in plays of 10+ yards allowed, third in 20+ yards, first in 30+ yards, seventh in 40+ yards, and eighth in 50+ yards.
The Wolverines have allowed 11 plays of 30 yards or more this season, compared to Ohio State’s four. The good news for Michigan is that’s about right at their pace from last season."
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
This is the most interesting quote in the article considering that the other OSU DC is Greg Mattison. Looks like he definitely took a lesson learned or two from his time at Michigan.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
That's always been the primary criticism of Brown's system. Yes, it's an excellent defense overall, but it's vulnerable to big / explosive plays.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
Don't bend, but break.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
This is the most critical point in the whole article. Don Brown has got to stop this 50/50 gamble cause it keeps giving up touchdowns...and we haven't even played against a truly high powered offense yet.
And it's not like we got to the QB on these gambles ANYWAYS....we only sacked him twice. I agree with the author, the two sacks weren't worth giving up the two touchdowns.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
I wonder what Michigan’s record would be right now if they had played osu’s schedule so far?
no snark intended.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
Yeah, and the "That's how you start 3-2 in Big Ten play" comment sidesteps the point that those two losses were to undefeated teams both on the road. Not that it isn't still a disappointment.
October 22nd, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
Probably 7-0 or 6-1? I just don't think Michigan would have looked as dominate in their wins as OSU.
The 1 loss either coming from Cincinnati or MSU.
Remember, this is a team that struggled at the beginning of the season against Middle Tennessee and Army who currently have a collective 5-9 record.
October 22nd, 2019 at 9:15 PM ^
Michigan barely beat Iowa, Penn State barely beat Iowa (10-3; 17-12)
Wisconsin just lost to Illinois, so are they REALLY that tough? Dr Mantis Toboggan has been telling us all year--Wisconsin is not that good.
And why do people keep saying dominate (a verb) instead of dominant (an adjective)--is this some sort of board parlance I miss out on???
Why are people defending Michigan playcalling in the second half? They simply used all these high-powered athletes we have been reading about for several recruiting cycles now
And with all that great playcalling, the team still only scored two TDs in the second half.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
"It means Michigan the team is playing better, but Michigan the program still isn’t in a place where it can overcome a couple of mistakes or a couple of poor coaching decisions against teams with as much talent as they have."
Nailed it.
October 22nd, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
What does that mean? It's the team that shows up on the field. I would suggest that they did play well enough to overcome their many mistakes. They just couldn't overcome the horrendous officiating. Bell dropped the pass? That shouldn't have been the end. Collins (who was the first read) was knocked down by the DB. That should have been called leaving us with 1st and goal from the 1.5 yard line. Another drive was ended when refs failed to call interference that was so obvious even the announcers decried it. No PI on Freiermuth? Ok, but if that's how you're going to call the game there was no way that there was PI on Collins.
What does "the program isn't good enough" mean?
October 22nd, 2019 at 8:52 PM ^
Means they're not good enough. And blaming the entire game on the refs is about as short sighted as you can get.
October 22nd, 2019 at 10:01 PM ^
I still don't understand the distinction being drawn between the team and the program.
And if you don't think the officiating made a difference in that game you weren't paying attention.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
I think he’s been a little harsh on Michigan this year which is only notable because he’s usually very fair. That said, this space has also been a bit harsh in my opinion.
I really think the last decade has broken this fanbase. Everything is constantly tinged by this psychotic need to compare ourselves to OSU. I don’t blame anyone considering the horrendous run we’ve had but it does get tiresome.
At a certain point you need to appreciate that Michigan is a disappointing but still pretty good team that has a legit shot at going 2-1 vs rivals and hell who knows maybe they pull something out of their ass against OSU.
Is Michigan at or going to get to OSU’s current level under Harbaugh? Almost certainly not. But no amount of bitching online can change that so you really just have to roll with it and enjoy the good moments when they come along.
Sometimes you don’t get everything you want in life and that’s ok.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
Nah, i think you keep fighting for every inch and never surrender. Once you accept mediocrity you might as well just die.
Bo is rolling over in his grave with what you just said.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
I mean if harbaugh said what I said I wouldn’t be happy but I have literally no affect on the program so it’s probably fine lol
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:58 PM ^
You individually, no. We collectively, yes. If we didn't have an affect on the program Brady Hoke would still be head coach and Dave Brandon the AD. So yeah, if you, we, conclude that Michigan can never and will never again be competitive with OSU, rather we should accept a subordinate position as our lot in life, then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. And by the way, it also means we way overpaid for the current coaching staff.
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:47 PM ^
Let's talk about Bo. How many NCs did he have? What was his Rose Bowl record? Let's not act like Bo was Saban before Saban was Saban.
October 22nd, 2019 at 2:11 PM ^
At the time the only way to get to the Rose Bowl was to win, or be a co-champ of the Big Ten. Even then it was no guarantee. So yeah, let's talk about Bo. Let's talk about Bo coaching Michigan to the Big Ten championship in his very first season. And by the way, beating what was arguably the best team in college football. Let's talk about the next five years during which his team lost four games. Not four games each season, but four games in total. Put another way, in five seasons Bo's Michigan team lost fewer games than Harbaugh did in just one.
Bo Schembechler was no Nick Saban, granted, but then I'm not asking Jim Harbaugh to be Nick Saban, I'd settle for another Bo Schembechler.
October 22nd, 2019 at 6:05 PM ^
How many playoffs would Bo have gotten to back then. 4 or 5 at least?
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
They play the same sport with the same rules and the same monetary advantages. Ohio State has a first-year head coach and they are arguably the best team in the country.
If Michigan isn't going to get to Ohio State's level under Harbaugh, what's the point of his continued employment, unless it is to ensure the money train continues to roll?
I highly doubt you'll have this same approach if/when Ohio State has 40,000 fans in Michigan Stadium and wins by 25 points in late November.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:43 PM ^
Amen. I'm as big of a Harbaugh defender as anyone, but the idea that we should just roll over and accept the fact that OSU will be better than us forever is fucking crazy. I'd rather shut the program down and use the stadium for Nickelback concerts than accept permanent mediocrity.
October 22nd, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
I can't second these comments enough.