Michigan is about 8.5 point underdogs versus Ohio State

HA redcoats.  My 6 yr old son calls them the Butt-guys.

I'm right there with you.  Hoping we fill up the stadium with Maize and Blue and drown out any OSU noise.  I really want to see a sad, dejected look on that silver painted weirdo's face after a big win for Michigan too.  Or better yet, just don't show the weirdo at all..  Yeah, that'd be better.

FWIW, OSU returned a portion of their ticket allotment. That doesn’t necessarily reflect the secondary market, but it’s a good sign. 

I have a different recollection of PSU-UM.

The refs made 2-3 awful calls and screwed us early and once we recovered we pushed that team around up and down the field.  

The spread is right.

We are playing really well.  We are at home.  We want this one.

Take the good guys.

and yet we still watch with hope.  My barber (a Clemson guy) was mad at me this week because I kept wincing when he wanted my honest assessment on the line for the ND game.  I couldn't give him confidence in betting then and I cannot give him confidence in betting now.  10 points feels about right for Vegas to provide an estimate of a game in which they just want everyone's money.  The youtubes where the jolly vegas guys put down their large cigars and talk into the cameras are not live yet.  My guess is their typically uninformed opinion will align with this stance.  No idea why anyone reading this comment should throw away their money on this game but it's your money.  

"Generational"?  Ehh.  OSU is a super-Minnesota this year.  Their schedule thus far:

FAU, Cinci, Indiana, Miami (NTM), Nebraska, STAEE, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State.

I'll give them Wisconsin and Penn State; they both beat us.  But other than that, I'm really not impressed that a program for which nothing ever goes wrong did what you'd expect it to do against that slate.  Their win against Sparty doesn't look any better than ours, we can basically ignore comparing Indiana wins because Michigan-Indiana is always weird, and prior to that Gattis spent half the season farting around like he was the most brilliant first-time playcaller in the history of football.  To his credit he woke up, albeit after pissing away what chance the seniors had of winning the conference, and the offense is now a different beast than the one those teams enjoyed feasting on.  We're in fact now ranked above both and that feels right.  They got a self-nerfed Michigan; they shouldn't want a rematch.

Mind you I'm fully in the BPONE about this game anyway because The Game is now completely cursed.  Michigan just can't catch a break and OSU's "punishment" for employing an abuse-enabler is a seamless transition to a hand-picked successor.  But if Michigan doesn't shock the world on Saturday, I'm guessing this OSU squad is in for a very rude awakening in the CFP.

The flaw in your argument is that Michigan is a better team than PSU now and honestly were that night too if the officials do their jobs properly in the first half. PSU has Hamler and their TE, that is all they have this year as dangerous targets and they are pairing that with a freshmen QB. It should be a little more challenging for OSU to defend UM with a senior QB getting hot and more than two viable passing targets to cover. Not saying UM will win, but the one to one comparison with PSU is just not apt right now. 

I don't think anybody here see MSU or IU as elite defenses.  The reason for optimism is that only the offense clicking on all cylinders, but they're also doing things they weren't doing earlier this year:  taking advantage of mismatches, taking what the defense gives them, & finally showing (& executing) "speed in space".  

Floundered around all year is not accurate. Starting with the second half of the PSU game we have looked very good, even if it was against "bad" teams. It's not like OSU has had a particularly hard schedule; you're drawing your conclusions about them being a "generational" team based on a pretty weak slate of opponents. Their toughest games were all home games, whereas our two losses were road games; I don't think that can be discounted.

If you're going to use PSU as a comparison point, it's worth noting that our loss to them was @PSU, and OSU beat them at home. Even with a conservative 3 point home field advantage (some argue home field is up to 7 points), that's a 6 point swing there in our favor, meaning an 11-point loss turns into a 5-point loss. Obviously that's not how it works in real life, but you get my point. It's especially notable since we are substantially worse away from the Big House under Harbaugh.

I'll give you the fact that we've looked bad in most big games in recent years, especially against OSU. But we've also played some close games that we had no business being in. 

In any event, this was all probably a waste of typing because in the end, the line shifted rather significantly, which is probably the biggest indication that the 13.5 point spread was unreasonable. Unless it shifts back significantly, that is the "reasonable" spread because the spread is set based on betting action, and therefore is inherently reasonable.

With the exception of 2015, every game in Ann Arbor has been competitive.  Even that one was 14-10 at the half.  

I'm not sure how you can say we've "floundered all year" unless you've been in a coma the past month.

marmot, a high percentage of your posts reference Ohio State.  Why is that.

Please, don't ask that question. I've been asking it since Bo's last Rose Bowl, and every time the universe says "nope."

I don't gamble, but if I were to bet $100 that we win, how much would I make when we do?

I thought home field was worth 3?

I would expect such a comment from a buckeye. A weak attempt at sowing seeds of doubt.  Michigan can, and will, beat Ohio State.