Michigan a 9 seed to ESPN, still in first four to CBS.
As expected, the Northwestern win isn't a huge help. The slight bump on ESPN is likely a function of two things:
1. Lunardi isn't all that good at this; at one point he had LSU as a #7 at the same time that everyone else had them as a #11.
2. There are a bunch of B1G teams in the bottom halves of brackets. Iowa, MSU, and Maryland are all expected to be 2-3 seeds, and Wisconsin has a good shot to be a 6-7 seed. Indiana or Purdue could also wind up a 6 seed as well. Given all of that, Lunardi may have artificially bumped Michigan up to a 9 instead of a 10 to avoid an intraconference sweet 16 matchup.
Basic takeaway: we are still very much a bubble team, and probably need another win, either in the next two games or in a BTT quarterfinal to get to the dance.
February 25th, 2016 at 2:52 PM ^
How would Indiana be that low if they are able to win the conference?
February 25th, 2016 at 2:56 PM ^
Two were a long time ago (non-conference losses to #131 Wake Forest and #143 UNLV), but they also lost to Penn State this month. Their RPI is only at #30, and they still have to play at Iowa, and finish at home against Maryland, so they could easily finish with a couple more losses.
February 25th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^
I would think one loss to the Goophers would be worse than those 3 loses combined. Yet Maryland is still projected much higher.
February 25th, 2016 at 3:03 PM ^
Some of their resume is a little weaker than the other big ten teams:
IU: 30 RPI, SOS 112, Kenpom 20
Mary - 10 RPI, SOS 42, Kenpom 18
Iowa - 20 RPI, SOS 38, Kenpom 13
MSU - 14 - RPI, SOS 62, Kenpom 1
IU's RPI and Kenpom has gradually been getting better. They had a very easy conference schedule through the first 9 games.
February 25th, 2016 at 3:16 PM ^
IU would be a frightening 6 seed for anyone to play.
February 26th, 2016 at 12:55 AM ^
February 25th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^
I think we will be a ten seed
February 25th, 2016 at 2:57 PM ^
February 25th, 2016 at 3:23 PM ^
The win helped massively in the sense that it wasn't a season-killing loss. In that sense, the win over Rutgers may have been our biggest of the season.
February 25th, 2016 at 3:07 PM ^
I think 2 wins, one of the final two games, and avoiding a bad loss in the B1G Tourney makes us solidly in. I do think we get in with just a win in the B1G tourney, but lets not make those last 3 days harder on us than we have to. We should have 3 chances to secure a bid, WI, IA, and whoever we play after we play a bad team in the B1G tourney. Let's find a win somewhere.
February 25th, 2016 at 3:16 PM ^
"1. Lunardi isn't all that good at this; at one point he had LSU as a #7 at the same time that everyone else had them as a #11."
So if Lunardi isn't all that good at picking who will make the tourny prior to...well....teams being actually picked for the tourny can somebody please tell me what the fuck exactly what is he good at?
What else does he do?
February 25th, 2016 at 3:22 PM ^
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February 25th, 2016 at 3:35 PM ^
Most of these guys like Lunardi/Palm/etc. will be off their seeding some but usually have about 95% of the teams picked correctly as to who makes the tourney. When these guys start saying a team is on the bubble or last four in or first four out, they are probably aren't to far off.
February 25th, 2016 at 8:45 PM ^
Of course, once you get down to the final weekend, it really isn't that difficult to guess the field. Probably 60 of the 68 teams are obviously in by then, and another 4-5 are extremely likely. Their job basically comes down to picking the final 3-4 teams that get in.
February 25th, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^
The LSU thing was driving me nuts about a month ago, and seemed like a hugely suspicious case of ESPN/SEC trying to pump up LSU as a good team even though they have a resume that is fairly similar to Ohio State; i.e., a solid NIT team. He dropped LSU about 4 seed lines a couple weeks ago, down to where everyone else had them, when they lost to fellow bubble team Alabama.
By Selection Sunday, his bracket will probably be mostly in line with everyone else's, and he will (like most people) get about 66-67 of the 68 teams in the field right, which isn't particularly hard to do. One does wonder, though, if the average sports-interested fan could do his job at least as well as he does. Given that he is only average when compared to the other people on the Bracket Matrix, I think we know the answer.
February 25th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^
You know how everyone loves the 247 composite for recruiting? Well bracket matrix is that for the NCAA tourney. 100 brackets are included, and it pretty much gives you all the info you need on one page.
According to the matrix we are an 11 seed. I believe Oregon State jumped us last night somehow. They did have a last second game winner over a bad Washington team. But they're currently sub .500 in the Pac12. Tells me Michigan is not getting much respect from the worlds bracketologists.
Here you go:
http://www.bracketmatrix.com
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February 25th, 2016 at 3:41 PM ^
The Beavers resume compared to UM's:
OSU: 28 RPI, SOS - 1, 9-10 vs the Top 100
UM: 50 RPI, SOS - 68, 4-9 vs the Top 100
February 25th, 2016 at 8:48 PM ^
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February 25th, 2016 at 3:52 PM ^
Michigan actually dropped from the last 10 seed to the first 11 seed per Bracket Matrix after last night's win. That doesn't bode well for Michigan's chances if they can't beat Wisconsin, or Iowa.
Based on today's standings, Michigan would be the 7th seed and face Penn State in their first game in the BTT. If they win that, Maryland would be the second opponent and also last chance to get another top 50 win.
February 25th, 2016 at 4:05 PM ^
The Beavers have played a ridiculous schedule (the Pac-12 is strong this year, plus they played Kansas and some strong mid-majors, and very few tomato cans). About a third of the brackets in the matrix don't have them in the field at all (about 90% have Michigan in), but those that do have them even with Michigan in terms of seeding (their average seed is 10.12 to our 10.14). If the season ended today we could very well face them in a first four matchup, though I think we are more of a "last 4 byes" team at the moment.
February 25th, 2016 at 3:36 PM ^
February 25th, 2016 at 3:40 PM ^
I trust bracket matrix the most
February 25th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
February 25th, 2016 at 4:53 PM ^
We don't have any bad losses to horrible teams, but we have bad losses in that we got blown out by Xavier, UCONN, SMU, Purdue, MSU, and IU. We have three quality wins which is really mid-major type. 20-9 (10-6) is usually a shoe-in for Big Ten teams, but I doubt it with us. We need one more win.
To be honest, we need to beat Iowa more than Wisconsin, but if we can finish out 2-2, we would be guaranteed a spot. I think a 1-3 finish would put us in a play-in game at best. 1-2 with a win over Iowa but a first round B1G loss would be interesting. Hopefully we can put a nice stretch together here and finish 3-1 or better.
February 25th, 2016 at 8:00 PM ^
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February 26th, 2016 at 2:08 AM ^
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February 26th, 2016 at 6:34 AM ^
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February 25th, 2016 at 8:53 PM ^
I think we'll lose to Wisconsin but beat Iowa (which will cause a meltdown in my household, but LOL). We're in if we go one of two.
February 25th, 2016 at 10:04 PM ^
February 26th, 2016 at 10:59 AM ^
Here are my assumptions:
-We have a 27% chance to beat Wisconsin (Kenpom)
-We have a 46% chance to beat Iowa (Kenpom)
-We have a 70% chance to win our opening BTT game (conservative guess, Kenpom had us at 75% to beat Penn State at MSG a few weeks ago, which is the closest approximation I can think of)
-We have a 30% chance to win our second round BTT game (Kenpom had us 22% to win at Maryland on Sunday, so give us a bump for a neutral court) and a 25% chance to win a semifinal or final game (add some fatigue to the previous number)
-If we beat both Iowa and Wisconsin: 100% chance to make the tournament (12.42% chance of happening)
-Split Iowa and Wisconsin and win our first BTT game: 100% chance to make the tournament (33.71% chance of happening)
-Split Iowa and Wisconsin and lose our first BTT game: 95% chance to make the tournament (guess) (13.7% chance of happening)
-Lose to both Iowa and Wisconsin and lose our first BTT game: 15% chance to make the tournament (guess) (1.8% chance of happening)
-Lose to both Iowa and Wisconsin and end up losing in the BTT Quarterfinals: 50% chance to make the tournament (guess, you could maybe talk me into 60% since the rest of the bubble isn't good) (9.7% chance of happening)
-Lose to both Iowa and Wisconsin and end up losing in the BTT Semis: 95% chance to make the tournament (5.9% chance of happening)
-Lose to both Iowa and Wisconsin and reach BTT Finals: 100% chance to make the tournament (2.1% chance of happening)
That adds up to a 79.33% chance to make the tournament. I feel a little better but I'm still guessing, you may disagree.